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Bad plane crash in Africa -- Evaluation & Govt. Responses

The fact it was a the same model plane seems purely circumstantial at this point
 
From reading the airline geek forums, the problematic system that caused the Lion Air plane to crash 12 minutes into flight wouldn't have been active 3 minutes into flight when today's plane crashed.
 
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Look at the planes data hard to imagine it was terrorism. There were vertical speed issues before the crash which does sound like the same issue the last 737 max 8 had.
D1SXk_kWoAAqEII.png:large
 
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dcf4psu said:
The only problem is that this is two brand new 737 MAX 8 aircraft that have crashed just after takeoff in less than 5 months. That's unacceptable.
Click to expand...

4.3bln air passengers per year.
Statistically insane safety rate.

But I understand your point. There will be a massive amount of finger pointing at the plane since boeing has money.

Not so much at the airline i will guess.

Ldn
 
I hate to fly except in small planes, which I know is statistically backwards, but I grew up flying in small float and ski planes and I guess it's a control thing. If I can't see the pilot I get antsy.
 
LionDeNittany said:
4.3bln air passengers per year.
Statistically insane safety rate.

But I understand your point. There will be a massive amount of finger pointing at the plane since boeing has money.

Not so much at the airline i will guess.

Ldn
Click to expand...
The "Max" is a complete redesign of the 737 which has been the workhorse of most airlines for decades. Very common to fly a 737 that has been in use for 30+ years. The Max was designed to rebuild it with new materials and aeronautics. I flew in United's first Max last fall on a flight from Houston to Austin...it had been in service about two weeks.

The first Max had a problem with the computer controls and that is why it crashed.

Preliminary report[edit]
On 28 November, the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) released its preliminary accident investigation report.[144] After airspeed and altitude problems, an AoA sensor was replaced and tested two days earlier on the accident aircraft.[145] Erroneous airspeed indications were still present on the subsequent flight on 28 October, which experienced automatic nose down trim.[145] The runaway stabilizer non-normal checklist was run, the electric stabilizer trim was turned off, and the flight continued with manual trim; the issues were reported after landing.[145] Shortly after takeoff on 29 October, issues involving altitude and airspeed continued due to erroneous AoA data and commanded automatic nose-down trim via the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).[145] The flight crew repeatedly commanded nose-up trim over the final ten minutes of the flight.[145] The report does not state whether the runaway stabilizer trim procedure was run or whether the electric stabilizer trim switches were cut out on the accident flight.[145]

Leeham News, which principally covers Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer issues,[146] reported that the crew did not have a clear knowledge of the trim runaway checklist which all 737 crews are required to know, and that the MCAS was going to be updated to operate from multiple, verified AoA signals.[147]

Boeing pointed to the successful troubleshooting conducted on 28 October as evidence that the MCAS did not change runaway stabilizer procedures,[148] and emphasised the longstanding existence of procedures to cancel MCAS nose-down commands.[149]

Lion Air co-founder and former CEO Rusdi Kirana, currently the Indonesian ambassador to Malaysia, reportedly considered cancelling Lion Air's outstanding 190 Boeing aircraft orders — worth some $22 billion at list prices — over what he viewed as an attempt by Boeing to blame Lion Air for the crash.[149] On 31 December, the family of the first officer filed a lawsuit against Boeing, claiming negligence. The lawsuit also claimed that the aircraft's sensors provided inaccurate flight data causing its anti-stall system to improperly engage, as well as Boeing not providing proper instructions to pilots about how to handle the situation.[150]​

I'll bet they now ground the Max until further evaluation is completed. I can tell you, as a 1k flier per year, I'll be avoiding it until further review.
 
Obliviax said:
The "Max" is a complete redesign of the 737 which has been the workhorse of most airlines for decades. Very common to fly a 737 that has been in use for 30+ years. The Max was designed to rebuild it with new materials and aeronautics. I flew in United's first Max last fall on a flight from Houston to Austin...it had been in service about two weeks.

The first Max had a problem with the computer controls and that is why it crashed.

Preliminary report[edit]
On 28 November, the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) released its preliminary accident investigation report.[144] After airspeed and altitude problems, an AoA sensor was replaced and tested two days earlier on the accident aircraft.[145] Erroneous airspeed indications were still present on the subsequent flight on 28 October, which experienced automatic nose down trim.[145] The runaway stabilizer non-normal checklist was run, the electric stabilizer trim was turned off, and the flight continued with manual trim; the issues were reported after landing.[145] Shortly after takeoff on 29 October, issues involving altitude and airspeed continued due to erroneous AoA data and commanded automatic nose-down trim via the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).[145] The flight crew repeatedly commanded nose-up trim over the final ten minutes of the flight.[145] The report does not state whether the runaway stabilizer trim procedure was run or whether the electric stabilizer trim switches were cut out on the accident flight.[145]

Leeham News, which principally covers Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer issues,[146] reported that the crew did not have a clear knowledge of the trim runaway checklist which all 737 crews are required to know, and that the MCAS was going to be updated to operate from multiple, verified AoA signals.[147]

Boeing pointed to the successful troubleshooting conducted on 28 October as evidence that the MCAS did not change runaway stabilizer procedures,[148] and emphasised the longstanding existence of procedures to cancel MCAS nose-down commands.[149]

Lion Air co-founder and former CEO Rusdi Kirana, currently the Indonesian ambassador to Malaysia, reportedly considered cancelling Lion Air's outstanding 190 Boeing aircraft orders — worth some $22 billion at list prices — over what he viewed as an attempt by Boeing to blame Lion Air for the crash.[149] On 31 December, the family of the first officer filed a lawsuit against Boeing, claiming negligence. The lawsuit also claimed that the aircraft's sensors provided inaccurate flight data causing its anti-stall system to improperly engage, as well as Boeing not providing proper instructions to pilots about how to handle the situation.[150]​

I'll bet they now ground the Max until further evaluation is completed. I can tell you, as a 1k flier per year, I'll be avoiding it until further review.
Click to expand...

What you sent me was evidence of what i wrote. Pilot error and attempt to blame Boeing.

Boeing has the money.

I know what the max is. There are many flying. Location of these wrecks is key.

LdN
 
dcf4psu said:
Look at the planes data hard to imagine it was terrorism. There were vertical speed issues before the crash which does sound like the same issue the last 737 max 8 had.
D1SXk_kWoAAqEII.png:large
Click to expand...
Plane never made it over 1400’ AGL. Barely got off the ground.
 
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I just returned from Botswana with my wife after a safari type trip. When we left one camp and flew to another camp (small plane), the female pilot came in hot and touched half-way down the small air strip and off the end of runway and into a six foot dirt wall to keep from going further. Good thing it was there as 13 elephants were 100 yards past the wall.

The planes propeller and left wing hit the wall to stop us. I was in the seat next to pilot but no injuries. Four days before that 4 Americans died in Kenya helicopter crash during safari and two weeks before that 2 Americans died (plane crash) in Kenya's Masai Mara. Makes you wonder how often this occurs and probably the only reason I found out about it thru the U.S. news was because Americans were involved.
 
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dcf4psu said:
The only problem is that this is two brand new 737 MAX 8 aircraft that have crashed just after takeoff in less than 5 months. That's unacceptable.
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Coincidences happen. It is unfair at this point to say the two crashes were caused by the design of the plane.
 
The following airlines in USA and Canada fly the 737Max with the number of planes that have been delivered to them

Southwest - 37

American - 16

United - 7
 
Dave 10 said:
The following airlines in USA and Canada fly the 737Max with the number of planes that have been delivered to them

Southwest - 37

American - 16

United - 7
Click to expand...

I flew on a Southwest maiden flight last year of a Max 8 from FLL to PHL... Incredible plane and beautiful inside. Hope we they find out the causes of these crashes soon... kinda makes me nervous looking back on that flight. Especially as there was heavy sleet and snow landing PHL that night. (Granted the problems seem to be during take off)
 
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LemonEars said:
Coincidences happen. It is unfair at this point to say the two crashes were caused by the design of the plane.
Click to expand...
Agree...but prudent to look closer. As someone once said, there are no such things as coincidences. I am a big fan of "The Points Guy" who has made maximizing travel points into a full blown business. Here are their comments.
 
Look at what's happening to Boeing stock today. This is the worst safety crisis Boeing has had in 20-25 years since the 737 had rudder problems that were downing planes. Too early to say but the circumstances of the Ethoipian and Lion Air crashes appear very similar.

Ethopian, unlike Lion Air, has a reputation as a well run airline with very well trained pilots. It's highly likely this pilot was trained in the procedures after the Lion Air crash for turning off the MCAS system. (Those procedures were not easy, by the way, and counting on a pilot to remember them in a matter of seconds while while his aircraft is plunging into terrain -- that's asking a lot.)

If this turns out to be another crash caused by MCAS Boeing will have to ground the fleet (350) and freeze a program with 5000 planes on order while they figure out what to do. They thought they could fix this with pilot procedures. Maybe Ethopian crash is telling them that won't work.

If they have to physically redesign the plane and recertify everything, that could mean no 737 deliveries for a year or more. Which is why Wall Street is freaking out.
 
tboyer said:
Look at what's happening to Boeing stock today. This is the worst safety crisis Boeing has had in 20-25 years since the 737 had rudder problems that were downing planes. Too early to say but the circumstances of the Ethoipian and Lion Air crashes appear very similar.

Ethopian, unlike Lion Air, has a reputation as a well run airline with very well trained pilots. It's highly likely this pilot was trained in the procedures after the Lion Air crash for turning off the MCAS system. (Those procedures were not easy, by the way, and counting on a pilot to remember them in a matter of seconds while while his aircraft is plunging into terrain -- that's asking a lot.)

If this turns out to be another crash caused by MCAS Boeing will have to ground the fleet (350) and freeze a program with 5000 planes on order while they figure out what to do. They thought they could fix this with pilot procedures. Maybe Ethopian crash is telling them that won't work.

If they have to physically redesign the plane and recertify everything, that could mean no 737 deliveries for a year or more. Which is why Wall Street is freaking out.
Click to expand...

Nice little rally this morning.
 
Heard on NPR this morning that pilots were complaining they were unaware of of 'operational' changes made to the flight system by Boeing. That's not good.
 
Midnighter said:
Heard on NPR this morning that pilots were complaining they were unaware of of 'operational' changes made to the flight system by Boeing. That's not good.
Click to expand...
I've got a couple of pilot friends...perhaps someone on the board is a pilot? General thoughts:

  • first one is a 777 pilot who came up through Boeing products. He flies, primarily, to China and back. He told me he will not consider airbus jets because they are way too computerized and he doesn't have much chance to enact evasive procedures. He said Airbus products fight the pilot, which may be good or bad. He felt Boeing was going with that philosophy and was concerned.
  • The second is a 737 pilot for SW. he told me, after the Lion Air crash, that it sounded like a sensor went bad and was giving the computer bad information. That caused the computer to try and fly the plane. In takeoff, you don't have much time. There have been other reports while in normal flight but the pilots had more time and altitude to react. But, nobody knows for sure. But it may be that a bad sensor can cause the computer to go ape-crap and the pilot has to fight or switch off the computer. If this happens at take-off, he/she may not have the time.
I fly a ton and am not a white knuckle flier. In fact, I get my best sleep and am most efficient on a plane. But I play a ton of attention. Way too many weird coincidences to ignore this.

Having said that, they'll get this fixed in short order
 
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Obliviax said:
I've got a couple of pilot friends...perhaps someone on the board is a pilot? General thoughts:

  • first one is a 777 pilot who came up through Boeing products. He flies, primarily, to China and back. He told me he will not consider airbus jets because they are way too computerized and he doesn't have much chance to enact evasive procedures. He said Airbus products fight the pilot, which may be good or bad. He felt Boeing was going with that philosophy and was concerned.
  • The second is a 737 pilot for SW. he told me, after the Lion Air crash, that it sounded like a sensor went bad and was giving the computer bad information. That caused the computer to try and fly the plane. In takeoff, you don't have much time. There have been other reports while in normal flight but the pilots had more time and altitude to react. But, nobody knows for sure. But it may be that a bad sensor can cause the computer to go ape-crap and the pilot has to fight or switch off the computer. If this happens at take-off, he/she may not have the time.
I fly a ton and am not a white knuckle flier. In fact, I get my best sleep and am most efficient on a plane. But I play a ton of attention. Way too many weird coincidences to ignore this.

Having said that, they'll get this fixed in short order
Click to expand...

Weirdly enough I was at a birthday party yesterday for one of my daughter's classmates and met a relatively new parent to the community - he's a Marine (reservist) V-22 Osprey pilot. Not sure if he's a commercial aviator but when we were talking about our jobs, that is what he said his was.
 
Midnighter said:
Weirdly enough I was at a birthday party yesterday for one of my daughter's classmates and met a relatively new parent to the community - he's a Marine (reservist) V-22 Osprey pilot. Not sure if he's a commercial aviator but when we were talking about our jobs, that is what he said his was.
Click to expand...
That Osprey is a beast to fly. its like flying a helicopter and plane at the same time.

FarUnawareCrocodileskink-size_restricted.gif
 
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Obliviax said:
I've got a couple of pilot friends...perhaps someone on the board is a pilot? General thoughts:

  • first one is a 777 pilot who came up through Boeing products. He flies, primarily, to China and back. He told me he will not consider airbus jets because they are way too computerized and he doesn't have much chance to enact evasive procedures. He said Airbus products fight the pilot, which may be good or bad. He felt Boeing was going with that philosophy and was concerned.
  • The second is a 737 pilot for SW. he told me, after the Lion Air crash, that it sounded like a sensor went bad and was giving the computer bad information. That caused the computer to try and fly the plane. In takeoff, you don't have much time. There have been other reports while in normal flight but the pilots had more time and altitude to react. But, nobody knows for sure. But it may be that a bad sensor can cause the computer to go ape-crap and the pilot has to fight or switch off the computer. If this happens at take-off, he/she may not have the time.
I fly a ton and am not a white knuckle flier. In fact, I get my best sleep and am most efficient on a plane. But I play a ton of attention. Way too many weird coincidences to ignore this.

Having said that, they'll get this fixed in short order
Click to expand...

Really good points by you and seems to be where this investigation is heading. Looking at that sensor as well as difficulty for pilots to override the computer or shut it off so they can manually take over the controls. Sounds like it's difficult to do especially while fighting the plane constantly. Boeing seem's to be saying the override is in our manuals and pilots may need better training. Pilots are saying its really difficult to override especially when the plane/computer is fighting back.
 
tboyer said:
Look at what's happening to Boeing stock today. This is the worst safety crisis Boeing has had in 20-25 years since the 737 had rudder problems that were downing planes. Too early to say but the circumstances of the Ethoipian and Lion Air crashes appear very similar.

Ethopian, unlike Lion Air, has a reputation as a well run airline with very well trained pilots. It's highly likely this pilot was trained in the procedures after the Lion Air crash for turning off the MCAS system. (Those procedures were not easy, by the way, and counting on a pilot to remember them in a matter of seconds while while his aircraft is plunging into terrain -- that's asking a lot.)

If this turns out to be another crash caused by MCAS Boeing will have to ground the fleet (350) and freeze a program with 5000 planes on order while they figure out what to do. They thought they could fix this with pilot procedures. Maybe Ethopian crash is telling them that won't work.

If they have to physically redesign the plane and recertify everything, that could mean no 737 deliveries for a year or more. Which is why Wall Street is freaking out.
Click to expand...

Seems like a good time to buy Boeing stock.


With the Lion Air crash, sensors were known to be bad based on maintenance records of the plane. For whatever reason the sensors weren't fixed. The bad sensors led to the MCAS issue.

The pilots noted unreliable airspeed indicators shortly after takeoff. Despite it being a new plane, what kind of maintenance records were there? Was something else ignored in maintenance?

Boeing it taking a hit on this, because society wants to blame someone immediately, but in the end I'm thinking it's not a problem with the MAX itself.
 
bwifan said:
Really good points by you and seems to be where this investigation is heading. Looking at that sensor as well as difficulty for pilots to override the computer or shut it off so they can manually take over the controls. Sounds like it's difficult to do especially while fighting the plane constantly. Boeing seem's to be saying the override is in our manuals and pilots may need better training. Pilots are saying its really difficult to override especially when the plane/computer is fighting back.
Click to expand...
I drove a car with "smart cruise control" the other day on an 8 hour drive (4 + 4). You set the cruise to a certain speed. When it comes up on a car in front of you, it slows to that car's speed. It had three variations for distance to the car in front of you....the one that adjusted closest (when your car was closest to the one in front) seemed to be about 60 yards. This was great for a lightly used interstate, but when there was more traffic it was unusable. People would simply cut in front of you and beep their horn if you pulled out too soon and weren't closing as a decent rate of speed (meaning, you ended up in the left lane for a long time, blocking other traffic). At the same time, if you didn't use your blinker, the wheel fought you as you changed lanes. My conclusion was that it was a good start, but cannot account for all of the variables. In addition, the legal department probably has a major say in how the system is set to work to mitigate law suits. I have to suspect the same may be true for Boeing.
 
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