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157 / 165

I'd prefer to have a guy who swings for the fences over a guy who looks for one perfect shot over 7 minutes because I think it's easier to sand the rough edges off the risk-taker than to convince the conservative guy to open up. Joe Lee wrestled last year like a guy firmly convinced he was going to hit a home run every time up, no matter who was pitching and despite racking up a lot of Ks, to stick with the baseball analogy. A guy like that is going to catch a win or two over a ranked guy if that opponent isn't awake, but they're going to go down a lot too. No idea whether Lee can adjust so there's more feast and less famine but that's the challenge.

To stay with the baseball theme, Joe seems like a guy who got a case of the Yips. Hope he can come back!
 
Who is the loss to the in-state non-DI guy you are referring to? I disagree with your premise. that we've seen what he always has been.

While there has been a slip up or two, Joe has pretty much dominated who he was supposed to and mixed in some high level wins. He didn't always win every big tournament, but he did win Fargo. The one concern I had is I felt like Joe wrestled with emotion a bit more than Nick. There were times he would lose in a tourney and then lose again quickly in the consolation round, against a guy I thought he would beat. Maybe that's what's coming up now, the battle with the mental side of things? Or perhaps there was something physical limiting him?
We shall see soon enough.
He lost to Austin Bethel who now wrestles for Wabash (don't believe he starts). It was a huge upset.

You kind of prove my point with the rest of your post. At times Joe looks like a world beater and others he loses to guys he's better than. I've also seen him beat guys who he shouldn't have beaten because of his offensive capability (Brandon James his freshman year of high school, David Carr, etc...).
 
He lost to Austin Bethel who now wrestles for Wabash (don't believe he starts). It was a huge upset.

You kind of prove my point with the rest of your post. At times Joe looks like a world beater and others he loses to guys he's better than. I've also seen him beat guys who he shouldn't have beaten because of his offensive capability (Brandon James his freshman year of high school, David Carr, etc...).

It wasn't that big of an upset. Bethel was VERY capable and the only wrestler to beat Minnesota's Brayton Lee in HS, costing him a chance at a 4th State Title. And Joe avenged that loss multiple times as well. Sadly, the upset of Brayton cost fans the chance to see Brayton vs. Nick Lee. It was the only time he was in the same weight class as Nick or Joe in HS.

I think we both agree Joe is not a machine and takes an occasional loss, but those have been spread out over years, not all compacted in a short season with head scratching performances in addition to head scratching results. To me there is a difference between the two.
 
If you look at it, I think the team will be of relatively equal strength, but things had to dramatically improve at 149 through 165, and they simply did not. Iowa has the exact same team back, so the point difference will be the same. A look at this season compared to last season....at psu...
125-trends downward
133-the same
141-the same
149-still a hole unless someone steps up
157-trends downward
165-the same, no points without dramatic improvement
174-the same
184-the same
197-trends upwards
Hwt-trends upwards

Add it all up and it's basically the same total as last year...probably 15 to 20 points behind iowa.
 
I'm not one who thinks Iowa is a heavy favorite to win the team race in 2022 - will they be good - yes, they're bringing back a squad of veterans. However, I think Penn State has a solid team which can win it all. Here is what I think:

125 - Howard is going to be excellent; he'll be a NC one day, but not in 2022. His injury will sideline him and hopefully he fully recovers from his surgery. Steen will be solid; but he's not Howard. At nationals I think a healthy Steen can score as many points as a less than healthy Howard did in 2021, so I don't think we're going to see much of a point drop off here, if any.

133 - RBY will score a point of two more in 2022 given some extra bonus point matches.

141/149 - Doesn't matter who goes in these two weights. Nick Lee will definitely go and than Bartlett/SVN will fill the other weight. We can discuss which wrestler goes where, but since we had no one at 149 in 2021, our point combination in 2022 of 141/149 will be greater than what 141/149 was in 2021 and it could be significant.

157 - Really wanted to see Brady AA last year and we'll miss him in our line-up. I don't think anyone really knows how good Barraclough is, but I think he has excellent potential to be very good. Would have loved to see Boone stay and compete for the start at this weight; I know he's in the transfer portal but haven't seen him land anywhere - could he return? So lots of questions at this weight, doesn't mean we can't be good, just a lots of questions.

165 - We didn't get any points at this weight last nationals, so we can't do worse; I suspect we'll score some whether it's Joe Lee or someone else.

174 - Some additional points due to bonus.

184 - Ditto 174.

197 - Dean/Beard will score more points than 2021. I'm partial to Beard, I like the home grown wrestler, but if Dean is the better wrestler so be it.

HWT - Kirkvliet will score more more points than 2021.

So our chances are tied to the lower weights. Given that we'll have a contender at 149 we should be able to match or exceed our point totals for the 125-157 weights; probably just matching our point totals in 2022 with what was done in 2021 will be enough given the talent in the upper weights. The upper weights (165- HWT) are where we have the potential to do some serious damage. Each weight class has the reasonable potential to score more points in 2022 than in 2021.

Iowa will be favored (Flo probably won't have any of our NC's ranked #1), but I like our chances.
Who is the psu contender at 149? didn't qualify the weight last season...
 
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If you look at it, I think the team will be of relatively equal strength, but things had to dramatically improve at 149 through 165, and they simply did not. Iowa has the exact same team back, so the point difference will be the same. A look at this season compared to last season....at psu...
125-trends downward
133-the same
141-the same
149-still a hole unless someone steps up
157-trends downward
165-the same, no points without dramatic improvement
174-the same
184-the same
197-trends upwards
Hwt-trends upwards

Add it all up and it's basically the same total as last year...probably 15 to 20 points behind iowa.
If one were to concur with your analysis of 'trends downward' and 'trends upward' they aren't equal. At 2021 nationals we scored 1.5 points at 125 and double that for 157. So if we were to flat line at each of those weights in 2022 we don't lose a lot of points. Whereas if we 'trend upwards' at 197 and HWT, as you propose, there are a whole bunch of placement points to be had. Even at 'the same' weights there is potential for bonus points. We will score points at 149 whether it's Bartlett or SVN. So I like our chances to catch Iowa. That's what's great about the off season, we get to share ideas and opinions and then see how they play out.
 
My best guess is either Bartlett or SVN.
Which will require improvement from Bartlett, who did not qualify, or Van Ness, who would need to beat out Bartlett...and yes, either could improve and qualify the weight and maybe win a couple matches at Nationals.
 
If one were to concur with your analysis of 'trends downward' and 'trends upward' they aren't equal. At 2021 nationals we scored 1.5 points at 125 and double that for 157. So if we were to flat line at each of those weights in 2022 we don't lose a lot of points. Whereas if we 'trend upwards' at 197 and HWT, as you propose, there are a whole bunch of placement points to be had. Even at 'the same' weights there is potential for bonus points. We will score points at 149 whether it's Bartlett or SVN. So I like our chances to catch Iowa. That's what's great about the off season, we get to share ideas and opinions and then see how they play out.
it won't be easy to have 4 champions again.
 
Which will require improvement from Bartlett, who did not qualify, or Van Ness, who would need to beat out Bartlett...and yes, either could improve and qualify the weight and maybe win a couple matches at Nationals.
In fairness to Bartlett he wasn't the Penn State starter at 149 until the Ohio State dual on February 19th, just two weeks before the B1G tournament. I think if he commits to 149 from the start of the 2021/2022 season, you see a vastly improved wrestler. Whether he red shirts or successfully beats out SVN for the starting position, remains to be seen.
 
If BB decides he’s going to be the man at 149 and takes appropriate action to fill out, he’s an AA.

He could have wrestled 133 last season and gave two podium placers a good match at 149. The BB that walloped the Junior Nats field at 143/65kg was significantly more muscular than the BB that lost to Sasso, etc.
 
Beau obviously wasn't prepared to go 149 this year. I know people are concerned about his reach and frame but he did hold his own pretty well against the #2 and 3 finishers in that weight class this year. Also as a true freshman with 2 months of a season (and opening your season at Big Tens) and it was going to be tough. That being said, 149 is a weight we need to pick points from next year. It's so wide open and the past decade, it was our damn weight. Time to take it back.
 
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A total of 3 points from 149-165 last year. No way we don't improve on that.

I don't know who will get the nod at those weights, but we will be better ... maybe a lot better.
 
If you look at it, I think the team will be of relatively equal strength, but things had to dramatically improve at 149 through 165, and they simply did not. Iowa has the exact same team back, so the point difference will be the same. A look at this season compared to last season....at psu...
125-trends downward
133-the same
141-the same
149-still a hole unless someone steps up
157-trends downward
165-the same, no points without dramatic improvement
174-the same
184-the same
197-trends upwards
Hwt-trends upwards

Add it all up and it's basically the same total as last year...probably 15 to 20 points behind iowa.
I feel like 133, 141, 174 and 184 should all wrestle a little looser now that they've got that 1st Natty and score more bonus points. Every one of our guys with a full season will only be better next year.
 
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It wasn't that big of an upset. Bethel was VERY capable and the only wrestler to beat Minnesota's Brayton Lee in HS, costing him a chance at a 4th State Title. And Joe avenged that loss multiple times as well. Sadly, the upset of Brayton cost fans the chance to see Brayton vs. Nick Lee. It was the only time he was in the same weight class as Nick or Joe in HS.

I think we both agree Joe is not a machine and takes an occasional loss, but those have been spread out over years, not all compacted in a short season with head scratching performances in addition to head scratching results. To me there is a difference between the two.
Ludicrous. I'm sorry. Austin Bethel was very good, but was not on that level. Joe Lee was coming off a 10-0 drubbing of Shane Griffith.
 
A few things:
  • Robert Howard scored 1.5 points at NCAAs in 2021. So, yeah, it's pretty safe to say that PSU won't see much of a point drop off with Steen. But that won't get it done.
  • Ditto at 165. PSU can't do worse than zero points, which is what Joe Lee scored in 2021. But, again, that isn't good enough.
  • You say that PSU matching its 2021 point totals at the 125-157 weights will be enough in 2022 due to strength in the upper weights. This is just not accurate. Iowa wrestled pretty much to seed (no one crazy out-performed their seed) and beat PSU by 14.5. This with getting almost nothing from Marinelli, which is unlikely to happen again. Marinelli is probably good for at least 15 points or so, which means PSU will need 30 points more than in 2021. Expecting Steen to do much at NCAAs in unrealistic, so no help there. Even with a near best case scenario at 174 thru 285 (say 12 points better than 2021, due mostly to improvement at 197 and 285, plus a few more bonus points throughout), PSU will probably need at least 18 additional points from 149 thru 165. A full year of Bartlett at 149 will help some, but without a Wick-like transfer, it's very unclear where those points will come from.
Just a minute Bucco.........you need to take your Common sense Reality-based observations to another board! This kind of logic is not suitable for us fantasy driven off-season posters .......:)
 
I feel like 133, 141, 174 and 184 should all wrestle a little looser now that they've got that 1st Natty and score more bonus points. Every one of our guys with a full season will only be better next year.
I agree with you, but I also feel most of our champs would rather wrestle a controlled match, which is all good and dandy because they did win a NT. However, I am more optimistic about CStar because I think he has that killer instinct (pending his offensive improvements). I used to feel that way towards RBY too. Let's hope for some more bonus points this upcoming season. Otherwise, we will need as many qualifiers as we can.
 
I think if we want more bonus, we have to look at Aaron and Carter picking them up through QFs. I think they both drew opponents they could have majored probably at least (and that's 4 points right there)

We've been spoiled but bonus is very hard to pick up in the semis and finals, we've been spoiled by hammers who makes us just expect that. Heck, it's not easy at any point in the tournament really tbh. I think Aaron and RBY both have shown an ability to convert scrambles into a cradle (that's what makes Eierman such a bonus threat) Yes I said RBY, I've seen him show an instinct to be able to find cradles (think what he did to Ridge Lovett and ADS last year, that's a great opportunity to pick up bonus) Similarly, Aaron finding that standing cradle on Venz. They both have a sense (not Jason Nolf or Bo Nickal level but who is that level?) that makes me think it's possible for them. It's risky but if we want more bonus, that's one way to do it. Nick and Carter are more grinder type who I think can get majors or TFs through turns.
 
Questioning the proper thread post aside, as well as guarding for the potential abuse for my next question, do you think he is a guaranteed upgrade over Steen? A cadet World is what it is but who has he beat in folk lately? Honest question I can't find the answer.
I agree, he had a heck of a run at Worlds, but I liken it to a youth wrestler winning a tournament on 4 cow catchers. He hit a Mallory from the shin whizzer on every opponent that tournament. Its obvious that those foreign kids had never been to a Jordan camp lol. That shit aint working on B10 competition.
 
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In fairness to Bartlett he wasn't the Penn State starter at 149 until the Ohio State dual on February 19th, just two weeks before the B1G tournament. I think if he commits to 149 from the start of the 2021/2022 season, you see a vastly improved wrestler. Whether he red shirts or successfully beats out SVN for the starting position, remains to be seen.
Completely agree. A full season Bartlett at 149 doesn’t qualify for nationals? Last years miss on qualifying was a function of who he had to wrestle, not if he was good enough. Calling 157 a hole completely ignores the results in match. Even without improvement he would qualify from a full season.
 
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A total of 3 points from 149-165 last year. No way we don't improve on that.

I don't know who will get the nod at those weights, but we will be better ... maybe a lot better.
3 points. It will be a lot better since it doesn’t take much to be a lot better than 3. :)
 
A few things:
  • Robert Howard scored 1.5 points at NCAAs in 2021. So, yeah, it's pretty safe to say that PSU won't see much of a point drop off with Steen. But that won't get it done.
  • Ditto at 165. PSU can't do worse than zero points, which is what Joe Lee scored in 2021. But, again, that isn't good enough.
  • You say that PSU matching its 2021 point totals at the 125-157 weights will be enough in 2022 due to strength in the upper weights. This is just not accurate. Iowa wrestled pretty much to seed (no one crazy out-performed their seed) and beat PSU by 14.5. This with getting almost nothing from Marinelli, which is unlikely to happen again. Marinelli is probably good for at least 15 points or so, which means PSU will need 30 points more than in 2021. Expecting Steen to do much at NCAAs in unrealistic, so no help there. Even with a near best case scenario at 174 thru 285 (say 12 points better than 2021, due mostly to improvement at 197 and 285, plus a few more bonus points throughout), PSU will probably need at least 18 additional points from 149 thru 165. A full year of Bartlett at 149 will help some, but without a Wick-like transfer, it's very unclear where those points will come from.

This. When I was looking at the math with Wick, I had PSU/Iowa basically tied, and that was already counting on improvements out of Bartlett and Kerk.

I agree that I wouldn't expect much out of Steen as a true freshman in a deep weight. So without a Wick-like transfer, the rest of those points will probably still need to come from 157 and 165, maybe some more from Bartlett if he finishes like top 4 or something.
 
A few things:
  • Robert Howard scored 1.5 points at NCAAs in 2021. So, yeah, it's pretty safe to say that PSU won't see much of a point drop off with Steen. But that won't get it done.
  • Ditto at 165. PSU can't do worse than zero points, which is what Joe Lee scored in 2021. But, again, that isn't good enough.
  • You say that PSU matching its 2021 point totals at the 125-157 weights will be enough in 2022 due to strength in the upper weights. This is just not accurate. Iowa wrestled pretty much to seed (no one crazy out-performed their seed) and beat PSU by 14.5. This with getting almost nothing from Marinelli, which is unlikely to happen again. Marinelli is probably good for at least 15 points or so, which means PSU will need 30 points more than in 2021. Expecting Steen to do much at NCAAs in unrealistic, so no help there. Even with a near best case scenario at 174 thru 285 (say 12 points better than 2021, due mostly to improvement at 197 and 285, plus a few more bonus points throughout), PSU will probably need at least 18 additional points from 149 thru 165. A full year of Bartlett at 149 will help some, but without a Wick-like transfer, it's very unclear where those points will come from.
Another thing to consider is they only got 1 pt out of Murin too. He lost back to back OT matches in the quarters and r12. Between Marinelli and Murin, Iowa could easily extend their margin another 20-25 pts. That's a lot of ground to make up.

Then you also have 184. Assad has wins over 2 of the returning semifinalists. Myles Wilson just beat Foca (who 10-0'd Dean and beat Poznanski in the semis) twice to make the U23 team. They could definitely add points there too.
 
Another thing to consider is they only got 1 pt out of Murin too. He lost back to back OT matches in the quarters and r12. Between Marinelli and Murin, Iowa could easily extend their margin another 20-25 pts. That's a lot of ground to make up.

Then you also have 184. Assad has wins over 2 of the returning semifinalists. Myles Wilson just beat Foca (who 10-0'd Dean and beat Poznanski in the semis) twice to make the U23 team. They could definitely add points there too.
You good?
 
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I don’t know why we are fretting. Last year was an anomaly, especially since there were no matches except for conference matches to go by. We saw how many wrestlers either under ranked or over ranked the brackets.
 
Another thing to consider is they only got 1 pt out of Murin too. He lost back to back OT matches in the quarters and r12. Between Marinelli and Murin, Iowa could easily extend their margin another 20-25 pts. That's a lot of ground to make up.

Then you also have 184. Assad has wins over 2 of the returning semifinalists. Myles Wilson just beat Foca (who 10-0'd Dean and beat Poznanski in the semis) twice to make the U23 team. They could definitely add points there too.
Easily
 
Which will require improvement from Bartlett, who did not qualify, or Van Ness, who would need to beat out Bartlett...and yes, either could improve and qualify the weight and maybe win a couple matches at Nationals.

Coach ‘em up, Gunsie!!
 
Wonder if Deakin is in play? From @smalls103 and @corbyV show, he’s been making the rounds - checking out RTCs.

That would work
He's interesting, he never declared what he's doing and Willie/Corby made it sound like he might just be done with school also. He's at Nebraska right now training with James Green (he was at Princeton earlier). Worst case scenario from a team race perspective for us is he's just done, it just clears out another person ahead of Young (Dellavecchia, Hidlay, Deakin all clear so he just starts 4 by default and he's beaten Lee multiple times before and can probably beat Teemer, who's hot and cold as well) and we don't have a solution still to get points. That being said AOC is obviously going up, Monday/Humphreys are back and Paddy Gallagher obviously is pretty talented.
 
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To stay with the baseball theme, Joe seems like a guy who got a case of the Yips. Hope he can come back!
I have only ever heard the word "Yips" referring to a golfer's putting woes. That said....who was the Dodgers second baseman who started throwing balls into the dirt and making throwing errors left and right (Literally )?. Of course Steve Blass suddenly couldn't throw a strike....ended his career. Still never heard it referred to as the "Yips" but I guess it fits :)
 
...who was the Dodgers second baseman who started throwing balls into the dirt and making throwing errors left and right (Literally )? … :)
Dodger was Steve Sax.

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