Wow...Penn State opens as 10-point favorite against Iowa...bet up to 14

[djm_psu_alum]

I recall hearing that WVU's O-Line would be the best line we'd face until Michigan comes to town. I also heard the same thing about ILL's line being one of the better in the B10 (heard that prior to the game). Much to my wife's chagrin, I watch quite a bit of college football but in terms of comparing units, especially the O/D lines, are those assessments accurate? I would have assumed Iowa would have a better 0-line than WVU but I've only been hearing about Iowa's D being just as good as last year's.

That ILL DT was all over the place on Saturday. I caught only a little of ILL-Kansas' game and none of the other but was that guy as dominant vs those teams? What was the difference?

 

[lazydave841]

are those assessments accurate?

Still too early to tell for sure, but perhaps so thus far. WVU setup their QB to run where as Illinois didn't. Illinois didn't rush very strongly (82 yards on 26 rushes, I didn't hold the backup QBs sack yardage against them as it deflates the rushing stats by way of an ineffective pass), but they had more confidence in going downfield than WVU did (much to their disadvantage; 4 picks).

Iowa will probably run the RB more than WVU did. They will be patient. If their back has 25+ rushes, we need his total to be under 80 yards gained.

 

[Obliviax]

Still too early to tell for sure, but perhaps so thus far. WVU setup their QB to run where as Illinois didn't. Illinois didn't rush very strongly (82 yards on 26 rushes, I didn't hold the backup QBs sack yardage against them as it deflates the rushing stats by way of an ineffective pass), but they had more confidence in going downfield than WVU did (much to their disadvantage; 4 picks).

Iowa will probably run the RB more than WVU did. They will be patient. If their back has 25+ rushes, we need his total to be under 80 yards gained.

Iowa will play the way Joe Paterno used to play when going on the road as a dog.

Play conservative. Don't turn the ball over. Play strong defense. Try to get a turnover or two. Let them get impatient. Keep it close. Use the frenzied fans as an advantage; let the home team feel the pressure. Pounce on mistakes. Win at the end.

Knocking on wood, young Drew Allar with zero turnovers so far. I see us playing a conservative offense.

First one to 17 wins.

 

[bourbon n blues]

Iowa will play the way Joe Paterno used to play when going on the road as a dog.

Play conservative. Don't turn the ball over. Play strong defense. Try to get a turnover or two. Let them get impatient. Keep it close. Use the frenzied fans as an advantage; let the home team feel the pressure. Pounce on mistakes. Win at the end.

Knocking on wood, young Drew Allar with zero turnovers so far. I see us playing a conservative offense.

First one to 17 wins.

Probably true, so far I've seen few explosive plays from the running game, it's possible PSU jumps out big in this one.

 

[bcspsu]

I recall hearing that WVU's O-Line would be the best line we'd face until Michigan comes to town. I also heard the same thing about ILL's line being one of the better in the B10 (heard that prior to the game). Much to my wife's chagrin, I watch quite a bit of college football but in terms of comparing units, especially the O/D lines, are those assessments accurate? I would have assumed Iowa would have a better 0-line than WVU but I've only been hearing about Iowa's D being just as good as last year's.

That ILL DT was all over the place on Saturday. I caught only a little of ILL-Kansas' game and none of the other but was that guy as dominant vs those teams? What was the difference?

Iowa's o-line in recent seasons has been below average, especially last season. I don't know if they've improved because I haven't watched them this so far this season. However, like I said previously, I sincerely doubt that they will be as good as WVU's unit.

 

[DrJC]

I think PSU wins at home but I have no reason to think Iowa will be easier than Illinois. Do you disagree?

Don't count your chickens until the hen's been fu_cked!

 

[Obliviax]

I thought this interesting. I would guess that players doing well against the spread have come into the season under rated.

 

[doctornick]

I thought this interesting. I would guess that players doing well against the spread have come into the season under rated.

View embedded media

That's why we had to get the late TD vs WVU. Duh.

 

[Jerry]

He was on crutches so I'd say its a safe bet.

Word is that Lachey broke his leg and is likely out for the season. See link below.

Also, Cade McNamara appears still not fully comfortable with the Iowa O after missing a lot of practice time in August after he hurt his right quad.

I think we're gonna have to screw up pretty badly to lose to the Hawkeyes on Saturday night.

Iowa got Cade McNamara for games like these. It's time for him to deliver

McNamara has completed 53.5 percent of his passes for 417 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions this season for Iowa.

theathletic.com

 

[bvillebaron]

Yes, I didn't think they would but I also didn't think they'd have the benefit of Greene not being on the field.
I wouldn't use the term considerably better. They beat Duquesne then a Pitt team who's QB should retire.

WVU also beat Pitt after their starting QB, who played reasonably well against PSU, got hurt on the 3rd play of the game.

 

[WildTurk]

The top 2 Iowa RBs are out aswell now.

 

[LandoComando]

WVU also beat Pitt after their starting QB, who played reasonably well against PSU, got hurt on the 3rd play of the game.

I'll say again...Greene being injured is a huge part of why Pitt won. Greene was horrible on their opening drive....Pitt went the length of the field and got a FG. Greene leaving the game allowed them to commit to the run and just try not to make mistakes. I'd be more impressed if WVU won with Greene which I don't think they can and I've said that all along.

 

[Thomas1945]

This has nothing to do with the point spread or the game. I would just like to remind everyone that IOWA stands for Idiots Out Walking Around. I now return you to your previous discussion.

 

[Woodpecker]

I am kind of surprised given how poorly we played yesterday and how few of our faults can be corrected in a week's time. I am of the opinion that what we saw yesterday was on full display the previous two games but didn't fully manifest it itself because the level of competition was extremely low. The line isn't good. We have a rookie QB how looked below average against a Big Ten defense that isn't half as good as Iowa's. The defense is good but are consistently pushed around in the running game. So far we have been able to cover it up with bringing extra bodies. I haven't fully looked at Iowa but right now I would take them for the win based on what I have seen. They have the top tight end pair in the Big Ten. Probably the second best QB behind JJ McCarthy, solid backs, solid line and the best or second best defense in the league. Their biggest issue is the OC, and he isn't half as bad as John Donovan so there is that.

 

[hawkjt]

Iowa's offense has 3 top guys out(2 rbs and te) and QB gimpy.
Bet the ranch on Lions.

 

[lazydave841]

The top 2 Iowa RBs are out aswell now.

Iowa Football: Hawkeyes Release Depth Chart for Penn State Showdown

The Hawkeyes head to Happy Valley down a couple starters.

www.blackheartgoldpants.com

 

[fastlax16]

Rain in the forecast is bummer. Kirk loves a sloppy game.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

It's the same blueprint for pretty much all PSU v Iowa games.

PSU has to take advantage of their early success. Iowa keeps it close watch out. It's been the same scenario for pretty much the last 20 years.

Iowa wins. PSU dominates early but can't really capitilize. Hawks come on late.

PSU wins....PSU takes advantage of early success and Hawks are down too far for their mediocre offense to bring them back.

Only exception in the last 20 or so years was 2017 when PSU scored the last second touchdown.

 

[LMTLION]

Rain is in the forecast for State College Saturday and Saturday evening. Who does that benefit?

 

[WildTurk]

Rain is in the forecast for State College Saturday and Saturday evening. Who does that benefit?

Hawkeyes. Neutralize that speed advantage PSU has

 

[Jerry]

Rain is in the forecast for State College Saturday and Saturday evening. Who does that benefit?

I think when you're a 14-point favorite, you'd prefer not to introduce outside factors like bad weather into the equation.

That said, the current forecast is calling for most of the rain to fall in the afternoon followed by a 40% chance of drizzle during the game. If that's how it plays out, there shouldn't be a huge impact. But 4-5 days away, the forecast for the timing and amount of precipitation is not super accurate.

 

[RickinDayton]

Good luck mighty Cats of the jungle.

Good victory over PITT. What is Greene's (your QB) status?

 

[Obliviax]

I think when you're a 14-point favorite, you'd prefer not to introduce outside factors like bad weather into the equation.

That said, the current forecast is calling for most of the rain to fall in the afternoon followed by a 40% chance of drizzle during the game. If that's how it plays out, there shouldn't be a huge impact. But 4-5 days away, the forecast for the timing and amount of precipitation is not super accurate.

Yep...Iowa thrives on turnovers. wet conditions favor a conservative offense and strong defense. While that wasn't the case last night in the Brown/Steelers game (no rain), the difference was two defensive TDs, a major injury, one-sided penalties and two additional turnovers. Lets hope that doesn't play out again Saturday night.

 

[tlbakernc]

I think a lot will depend on our offensive game plan. There is no secret to Iowa. They don't hide what they do. Do we get Allar into a rhythm that then opens running lanes? I think that is the key to this game.

Almost think we need to get back to running to set up the pass. Problem is, just like Illinois, Iowa is gonna play 7 in the box with safeties running down hill. There’s jus no where to run. When we pass Iowa will send more than we can block. OC needs to start running slants, hitting backs out of the backfield, or using TE over the middle. 3 to 5 yard completions with YAC.

 

[baircub1!]

It's amazing how nothing you said is correct. The only real issue we had yesterday was our WR corps. IL put an extra man in the box and played man coverage. Our WR's had a hard time getting open just like we did last year vs. OSU and UM.

How can you say we got pushed around in the rushing game? We gave up 60 yards rushing.

Illinois D is better than advertised..and they have a pretty impressive front 4 that will give many offenses problems this year..expect them to have 1 or 2 upsets in the Big 10..but what does worry me..is that clearly it seemed our WR were having trouble getting seperation...wow what a star any of Ohio States WR would be if they were currently at PSU right now..Our D is rock solid..and OL is fine..but you know wevry team moving forward will look to beat us by stacking the line and going man to man in the secondary...our WR's HAVE to get better IMO if we are really going to challenge for Big 1o title and playoffs...

 

[KCLion]

Illinois D is better than advertised..and they have a pretty impressive front 4 that will give many offenses problems this year..expect them to have 1 or 2 upsets in the Big 10..but what does worry me..is that clearly it seemed our WR were having trouble getting seperation...wow what a star any of Ohio States WR would be if they were currently at PSU right now..Our D is rock solid..and OL is fine..but you know wevry team moving forward will look to beat us by stacking the line and going man to man in the secondary...our WR's HAVE to get better IMO if we are really going to challenge for Big 1o title and playoffs...

#1 got plenty of separation (about 20 yards) and everyone in the stadium saw it except #15.

Edit: #11 had plenty of separation and couldn’t hold on to the ball.

 

[lazydave841]

Only exception in the last 20 or so years was 2017 when PSU scored the last second touchdown.

2016 and 2020 were bigger exceptions than 2017. The first 2 were blowouts. The latter was a game we dominated in yards and still were behind until the final play.

#1 got plenty of separation (about 20 yards) and everyone in the stadium saw it except #15.

Edit: #11 had plenty of separation and couldn’t hold on to the ball.

Separation seems to be a buzzword like physicality these days. Everything that could go wrong did from the perspective of drops, and Allar off target. Yet we still didn't turn the ball over and we still had a 23 pt lead before we sent in the subs.

Most other schools would have kept the starters in longer, scored again and kept Illinois off the scoreboard. The stats would have been 60+ yards better on each side, which looks good to a lot, but doesn't help your backups.

 

[tlbakernc]

We always have a chance but PSU is out for our blood this time. My hope is PSU come out on fire and the tide gets slowed by Iowa to play our game (kind of like 2009). If we can quell PSU initially, we're in it. If PSU scores TD's on the first two drives, we're toast. That's the key. I personally think they'll get 10 on the first two drives and it'll be tough for us. I'm thinking something like 27-13 PSU at worst. Hope I'm wrong though. Very easily could be 27-24 as well though.

💯 agree! The crap Iowa fans pulled last time we played Iowa has this team plenty motivated. We lost PJ in that game to a season ending injury with fans booing and the special teams coach flopping on the ground mocking players. There’s no love loss in this game. I think things could get really chippy.

 

[bdgan]

2016 and 2020 were bigger exceptions than 2017. The first 2 were blowouts. The latter was a game we dominated in yards and still were behind until the final play.



Separation seems to be a buzzword like physicality these days. Everything that could go wrong did from the perspective of drops, and Allar off target. Yet we still didn't turn the ball over and we still had a 23 pt lead before we sent in the subs.

Most other schools would have kept the starters in longer, scored again and kept Illinois off the scoreboard. The stats would have been 60+ yards better on each side, which looks good to a lot, but doesn't help your backups.

Some counter arguments:

Allar didn't just miss throws because he had a bad day. He missed throws because he was being pressured.

Yes we scored 30 pts, but our average starting position was near the 40 yd line due to turnovers. So how many of those points can really be credited to the offense?

I'm not worried about the drops and penalties because I think (hope) that was a one time thing. I'm more worried about our OL and Allar's ability to handle the pressure against top opponents.

That said a road win is a good thing and it provides an opportunity for both players and coaches to learn and adjust.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Iowa's offense has 3 top guys out(2 rbs and te) and QB gimpy.
Bet the ranch on Lions.

How much did those 2 RBs play Saturday? I watched the game but not all that familiar with Iowa's personnel.

 

[lazydave841]

Some counter arguments:

Allar didn't just miss throws because he had a bad day. He missed throws because he was being pressured.

Yes we scored 30 pts, but our average starting position was near the 40 yd line due to turnovers. So how many of those points can really be credited to the offense?

I'm not worried about the drops and penalties because I think (hope) that was a one time thing. I'm more worried about our OL and Allar's ability to handle the pressure against top opponents.

That said a road win is a good thing and it provides an opportunity for both players and coaches to learn and adjust.

Agree on the pressure, it definitely forced some bad throws. The big thing for me is that Allar didn’t get swallowed up and deteriorate as the game went on. He didn't force the issue and turn the ball over nor did he lose his pocket presence and take sacks.

Any that they scored? The offense probably left 11-15 out there. Had they scored them, we see this game a lot differently. What if we didn't play the subs the entire 4th quarter? Does scoring 44 change perception then? Imagine getting the 11 and scoring twice late. 55-7 looks drastically different, but was 2 drops, a penalty, and playing starters longer away from what was.

I trust Allar and the OL more than the drops and penalties, but I'm glad we have Michigan at home this year.

Iowa will be interesting. They aren't dominant on defense, but they are opportunistic. The offense hasn't improved like many expected (no WR has 70 yards receiving yet vs weak opponents; we have 4, including 1 who missed a game). #1 TE is hurt. 2 of top 3 RBs likely won't play. McNamara is not 100%. Home game White Out, we should have a great night.

 

[lazydave841]

How much did those 2 RBs play Saturday? I watched the game but not all that familiar with Iowa's personnel.

Johnson didn't play at all. Patterson got the start, but wasn't very effective. Williams seemed to spark them. Chunk runs, caught a TD pass.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Johnson didn't play at all. Patterson got the start, but wasn't very effective. Williams seemed to spark them. Chunk runs, caught a TD pass.

Thx. Williams must have been the one I saw. Based on that info, I dont think missing the top 2 matters since that Williams kid went 12 carries for 145 yards. I'd say they'll be all right at that position.

 

[lazydave841]

Thx. Williams must have been the one I saw. Based on that info, I dont think missing the top 2 matters since that Williams kid went 12 carries for 145 yards. I'd say they'll be all right at that position.

They should be ok, save for depth. Think they have 2 true freshman who got mop up carrys. Stop the run. Don't let All get going. Don't make a WR nobody knows a star. Make McNamara beat us.

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Almost think we need to get back to running to set up the pass. Problem is, just like Illinois, Iowa is gonna play 7 in the box with safeties running down hill. There’s jus no where to run. When we pass Iowa will send more than we can block. OC needs to start running slants, hitting backs out of the backfield, or using TE over the middle. 3 to 5 yard completions with YAC.

I don't think Iowa is a blitzing team, but do agree that the short passing game is necessary to get Allar's confidence back and get him into a rhythm. He will need that to thread Iowa's confusing zones.

Our problem is the same as it has been for decades. We are mediocre overall on the OL. We have weak links. We can block straight up against comparable or weaker talent, but put a future NFLer in the defensive front seven, or run stunts, and we break down. This is why, in my opinion, we need more out of the game plan against better competition. We never just dominate the line of scrimmage anymore. Hasn't been the case in decades. Certainly not since going to the modern offense.

It used to be we could get more push for the run game, more momentum from the RB, by going under center. Look at the '94 offense. So many big plays were play action pass. That's been replaced by the RPO or just a deep, slow-developing run fake. The running back is planted for a second or two, allowing the DL time to stunt and blitz.

In other words, this offense requires more creativity in the passing game. Spread the ball not only to different players, but to different parts of the field. Don't waste downs throwing deep until a rhythm is established.

 

[WV Bruno]

Good victory over PITT. What is Greene's (your QB) status?

They are not saying much.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

We didnt play well vs. Illinois and got screwed by the refs. We are playing a night game at home in the whiteout game. I think we should win handily.

The b1g hacks did their best to try and keep ILL in the game.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

I don't think Iowa is a blitzing team, but do agree that the short passing game is necessary to get Allar's confidence back and get him into a rhythm. He will need that to thread Iowa's confusing zones.

Our problem is the same as it has been for decades. We are mediocre overall on the OL. We have weak links. We can block straight up against comparable or weaker talent, but put a future NFLer in the defensive front seven, or run stunts, and we break down. This is why, in my opinion, we need more out of the game plan against better competition. We never just dominate the line of scrimmage anymore. Hasn't been the case in decades. Certainly not since going to the modern offense.

It used to be we could get more push for the run game, more momentum from the RB, by going under center. Look at the '94 offense. So many big plays were play action pass. That's been replaced by the RPO or just a deep, slow-developing run fake. The running back is planted for a second or two, allowing the DL time to stunt and blitz.

In other words, this offense requires more creativity in the passing game. Spread the ball not only to different players, but to different parts of the field. Don't waste downs throwing deep until a rhythm is established.

Iowa is not a blitz-happy team, but they will definitely stuff the box with 7 and 8 players within a couple yards of the LOS.

 

[cohawk]

The conference just doesn't have any depth. Wisconsin remained relevant with a style closer to the Service Academy's than anyone else and now without that in their pocket, they are just like everyone else except in a part of the country with few recruits.

The rest need luck and senior heavy teams just to earn the right to be smacked in the ccg.

Wisconsin has never played football like the service academies. Not one school in the Big Ten runs the triple option or option.

 

[cohawk]

Who knows. Frankly, I think Iowa at PSU will be similar to Illinois at home against PSU. I think the line reflects that Iowa’s “best win” was 20-13 over Iowa State, the same Iowa State that lost several players due to betting, including their starting QB. Iowa State also lost 10-7 to Ohio (that’s the Bobcats not the Buckeyes). While many have dissed PSU’s comfortable win over WVU, my guess is that the oddsmakers noticed that WVU beat Pitt despite losing the starting QB (who played fairly well against PSU IMO) on the 3rd play of the game last night. But hey it’s football and anything can happen. I also.think that PSU had yet to play well offensively and they still have won comfortably. Probably have my blue and white glasses on but I think Allar will play better this week.

Oddsmakers don't watch games. That's not how the spread works. That said I think PSU wins this easily.