Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19

[N&B4PSU]

"What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus," Fauci said.

Fauci, who is normally measured in tone, expressed genuine excitement over the results, calling them "reminiscent of 34 years ago in 1986 when we were struggling for drugs for HIV."

Hope he is right, but reading through the rest of the "news", most were not as optimistic. And there is this:
The analysis did not compare remdesivir to a placebo, so it's impossible to determine whether any benefits were due to the drug or whether patients would have improved on their own.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171

Fascinating... considering most are saying results were relatively inconclusive (I believe i read "statistically inconclusive" in the Reuters article).. and the research folks will be ripping apart the data and expect to provide more in-depth info around mid-may. From what I saw of the results, I have no idea what more they can come up with.. but they're certainly better at this than me.

A diff of 8% vs 11% (death) didn't seem a barn burner when the 11 was a nothing placebo. The 31% faster response is more noteworthy... but again, it's vs placebo.

Placebo? Damn, it better be faster.

Me... I want to see it mano v mano vs HCQ.

But I'm contrary that way lol.

 

[CentexLion]

Big leap from 'genuine excitement' to 'the standard of treatment'.

Agree. I didn't see Standard Treatment mentioned. And to think, original Standard Treatment by 90% of doctors was to treat this as the flu (but it's nothing like the flu!!) Stay at home until symptoms get so bad, then come on in to be put on a vent.

 

[CentexLion]

Fascinating... considering most are saying results were relatively inconclusive (I believe i read "statistically inconclusive" in the Reuters article).. and the research folks will be ripping apart the data and expect to provide more in-depth info around mid-may. From what I saw of the results, I have no idea what more they can come up with.. but they're certainly better at this than me.

A diff of 8% vs 11% (death) didn't seem a barn burner when the 11 was a nothing placebo. The 31% faster response is more noteworthy... but again, it's vs placebo.

Placebo? Damn, it better be faster.

Me... I want to see it mano v mano vs HCQ.

But I'm contrary that way lol.

Even if it reduces hospital time from 15 to 11 days on average, that is good.
The more tools to fight this the better, until either a vaccine is ready or >92% develop immunity.

There are some (like the post 2 above), that jump right to politics. No value offered, and they look like they actually hope that certain solutions will not work. If anybody hopes for a solution to not work, they need help

 

[The Spin Meister]

Even if it reduces hospital time from 15 to 11 days on average, that is good.
The more tools to fight this the better, until either a vaccine is ready or >92% develop immunity.

There are some (like the post 2 above), that jump right to politics. No value offered, and they look like they actually hope that certain solutions will not work. If anybody hopes for a solution to not work, they need help

They appear to be using it for seriously ill. Would like to see results on people treated at first symptoms.

 

[N&B4PSU]

"What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus," Fauci said.

Fauci, who is normally measured in tone, expressed genuine excitement over the results, calling them "reminiscent of 34 years ago in 1986 when we were struggling for drugs for HIV."

Hope he is right, but reading through the rest of the "news", most were not as optimistic. And there is this:
The analysis did not compare remdesivir to a placebo, so it's impossible to determine whether any benefits were due to the drug or whether patients would have improved on their own.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171

? I thought the whole point was that it DID compare it to placebo (that's what I read in the study).. hence the 31% faster and 8% vs 11% death rate. What the heck else would they have been comparing it to?

We have something more amazing than Placebo?? Buy stock!

 

[The Spin Meister]

Fascinating... considering most are saying results were relatively inconclusive (I believe i read "statistically inconclusive" in the Reuters article).. and the research folks will be ripping apart the data and expect to provide more in-depth info around mid-may. From what I saw of the results, I have no idea what more they can come up with.. but they're certainly better at this than me.

A diff of 8% vs 11% (death) didn't seem a barn burner when the 11 was a nothing placebo. The 31% faster response is more noteworthy... but again, it's vs placebo.

Placebo? Damn, it better be faster.

Me... I want to see it mano v mano vs HCQ.

But I'm contrary that way lol.

I think they are giving standard care plus a placebo so that doctors/nurses don't know who is getting what. They probably even shape and color the placebo the same as the test drug. (Assuming it's pill form)

 

[CentexLion]

? I thought the whole point was that it DID compare it to placebo (that's what I read in the study).. hence the 31% faster and 8% vs 11% death rate. What the heck else would they have been comparing it to?

We have something more amazing than Placebo?? Buy stock!

From what I see, there were 3 studies released on the drug
The Fauci study was placebo controlled and are the 15 to 11 day reduction
The second was by Gilead Sciences (makers of the drug) and results upcoming
The third is the Lancet study, which no placebo control

That is the confusion since three studies were released today

 

[N&B4PSU]

I think they are giving standard care plus a placebo so that doctors/nurses don't know who is getting what. They probably even shape and color the placebo the same as the test drug. (Assuming it's pill form)

You might be right but the study itself did not say so... sounded very much like they had a P vs R contest. However, they also mention other drugs that were in the mix, so imo there were other combattants. So I'm not positive.

But at the end of the day, the 31% faster and 8% v 11% mortality rate were quite clearly Rem vs Sugarboys.

Sorry if i'm not getting all lathered up by those numbers.

 

[N&B4PSU]

From what I see, there were 3 studies released on the drug
The Fauci study was placebo controlled and are the 15 to 11 day reduction
The second was by Gilead Sciences (makers of the drug) and results upcoming
The third is the Lancet study, which no placebo control

That is the confusion since three studies were released today

Nice job... explains why I missed it (doing 10 things at same time and i'm a guy... we can't do that lol... well, sorta lol)

 

[N&B4PSU]

From what I see, there were 3 studies released on the drug
The Fauci study was placebo controlled and are the 15 to 11 day reduction
The second was by Gilead Sciences (makers of the drug) and results upcoming
The third is the Lancet study, which no placebo control

That is the confusion since three studies were released today

Really appreciate this. Just can't figure out why anyone would care about anything except the original study... lancet came up lame early and quit the game... seems Fauci should be waiting on the data from the authors come mid-may.

But again, I'm neither a research dude nor pharma beagle, nor (for that matter) Fauci.. so WTF do i know? [I know i know... not a whole lot... more's the fun]

 

[dailybuck777]

Three super interesting articles from Italy (where deaths have gone from 900 a day to 300 a day in the last 3 1/2 weeks). First two are about new treatment strategies. (pull them up in Chrome and Google Translate will do its thing.) Some Italian medical centers are treating patients at home as soon as they can after symptoms first appear. Home treatments include HCQ and heparin to prevent blood clotting (this would never happen in the US partly because of the HCQ scare campaign and also the fact that no one wants to do home treatment).

Anyway the doctors involved report that ICU admissions have "collapsed" in areas that are doing this. Numbers look really good -- but this is not a controlled study (one is in the works) so the US will ignore it.

Third article is a backward look at 65,000 Italians with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis who take HCQ regularly. Of the 65,000, only 20 confirmed covid cases, no deaths, no ICU admissions. This kind of data is possible in Italy because prescriptions are all in a national database. Once again, it's not a double blind controlled study so this will be ignored in the US.


https://www.iltempo.it/cronache/202...rump-zelenko-clorochina-anti-malaria-1318090/

https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/20...-sperimentazione-crollo-dei-ricoveri/5783544/

https://www.iltempo.it/salute/2020/...-terapia-idrossiclorochina-sars-cov2-1321227/

This is probably a short English summary of one of the studies you cited. Couldn't find an English version.

"In a review by the Italian Society for Rheumatology, 65,000 patients on long term treatment with hydroxychloroquine for rheumatoid arthritis and lupus showed only 20 patients infected with COVID-19. This is an infection rate of 0.03%. Of those 20 infected patients, there were no ICU admissions and no deaths. Compared to the testing confirmed infection rate in Italy of 0.33%, this study suggests that prophylactic use of hydroxychloroquine could reduce the rate of infection by 90%."
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1O6Cls-Oz2ZAgJuyDbnICEGjMvQPEyM-aaXARUomR9Ww/edit

Somewhat hopeful, but I think Dr. Todaro's reference to a potential 90% reduction in infection rates is overly optimistic. Hope it turns out to be true.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[royboy]

Coronavirus patients can’t relapse, South Korean scientists believe

South Korean scientists have concluded that coronavirus patients cannot relapse after recovering from the disease, despite hundreds of recovered people testing positive again.

The new findings suggest that rather than indicating reinfection, the positive results were caused by shortcomings in the standard virus test. They will greatly reassure governments threatened by the nightmarish prospect of a never-ending cycle of infection and reinfection.

Positive test results on people who had tested negative were the result of “fragments” of the virus lingering in their bodies, but with no power to make them or ill or to infect others, according to South Korea’s central clinical committee for emerging disease control.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...pse-south-korean-scientists-believe-rkm8zm7d9

 

[83wuzme]

Coronavirus patients can’t relapse, South Korean scientists believe

South Korean scientists have concluded that coronavirus patients cannot relapse after recovering from the disease, despite hundreds of recovered people testing positive again.

The new findings suggest that rather than indicating reinfection, the positive results were caused by shortcomings in the standard virus test. They will greatly reassure governments threatened by the nightmarish prospect of a never-ending cycle of infection and reinfection.

Positive test results on people who had tested negative were the result of “fragments” of the virus lingering in their bodies, but with no power to make them or ill or to infect others, according to South Korea’s central clinical committee for emerging disease control.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...pse-south-korean-scientists-believe-rkm8zm7d9

This makes sense, given the trajectory of outbreaks in some areas where new cases have declined to almost zero.

 

[ericstratton-rushchairman]

Coronavirus patients can’t relapse, South Korean scientists believe

South Korean scientists have concluded that coronavirus patients cannot relapse after recovering from the disease, despite hundreds of recovered people testing positive again.

The new findings suggest that rather than indicating reinfection, the positive results were caused by shortcomings in the standard virus test. They will greatly reassure governments threatened by the nightmarish prospect of a never-ending cycle of infection and reinfection.

Positive test results on people who had tested negative were the result of “fragments” of the virus lingering in their bodies, but with no power to make them or ill or to infect others, according to South Korea’s central clinical committee for emerging disease control.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...pse-south-korean-scientists-believe-rkm8zm7d9

Can we just replace the WHO with the South Korean team. They seem to have this whole thing really understood and handled

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[83wuzme]

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They’re probably not making much film these days, so I imagine they have some spare capacity.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[blion72]

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I think that is correct. We will in the near future have multiple solutions to use, and have a better understanding of when and how best to use each one - including dosage. It is likely that we would then see that most of the hospitalizations and deaths would have been avoided had we known everything in advance. That will give everyone a lot more assurance in getting back closer to normal life, as will have more understanding of the risk, which will have been highly reduced.

 

[TheGLOV]

 

[Obliviax]

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he needs to be less concerned about what he looks like with reading glasses on!

 

[The Spin Meister]

I think that is correct. We will in the near future have multiple solutions to use, and have a better understanding of when and how best to use each one - including dosage. It is likely that we would then see that most of the hospitalizations and deaths would have been avoided had we known everything in advance. That will give everyone a lot more assurance in getting back closer to normal life, as will have more understanding of the risk, which will have been highly reduced.

Duh, always easier when you know everything in advance.

Soon we will have multiple treatments that can be used depending on severity, complicating health issues, contraindications, age, and more. Then this will be like getting the measles or chicken pox....take a few pills for a week and be fine ....for the vast majority. Those with major health problems may need to be extra cautious ad isolate for several months longer.

Football, here we come!

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

They probably even shape and color the placebo the same as the test drug. (Assuming it's pill form)

The placebo comes in the form of a bag of Skittles and they are administered individually in the same manner as nurse Ratchet takes your temperature (the old fashioned way)!

 

[gregoryj95]

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ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation
Joint Statement issued on April 27, 2020:

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/

 

[rigi11]

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation
Joint Statement issued on April 27, 2020:

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/

Do the ACEP and AAEM doctors work for free or are they financially motivated too?

How many urgent cares do you think those doctors own?

 

[bdgan]

It is likely that we would then see that most of the hospitalizations and deaths would have been avoided had we known everything in advance.

A very large percentage of deaths have been older people with preexisting conditions. I think a lot of those people were in rough shape before the virus. I'm sure better treatments would have helped many but I'm not so sure that would have materially extended the lives of most.

 

[TheGLOV]

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation
Joint Statement issued on April 27, 2020:

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/

And King George of England wanted George Washington, Patrick Henry, and Thomas Franklin all dead!

What would you expect??

 

[ClarkstonMark]

A very large percentage of deaths have been older people with preexisting conditions. I think a lot of those people were in rough shape before the virus. I'm sure better treatments would have helped many but I'm not so sure that would have materially extended the lives of most.

I’d bet lots of money the average life expectancy of people who died from Covid is over 10 years and the median at least 3-5 years.

 

[richie83]

I’d bet lots of money the average life expectancy of people who died from Covid is over 10 years and the median at least 3-5 years.

I’ll take that bet. You realize the average life expectancy when your in a nursing home is 12-18 months. Over half the death are from nursing homes. And we don’t know what end of the 12-18 months most were. So I’ll take your bet.

 

[NedFromYork]

I’d bet lots of money the average life expectancy of people who died from Covid is over 10 years and the median at least 3-5 years.

????

 

[Tom McAndrew]