Thoughts on Penn State Basketball and tonight's loss to Purdue

[Ranger Dan]

The identity of this program is defense and effort. Obviously we are trying to get more talented without losing that identity.

A few games ago, I saw Zemgulis play for the first time in a while and he was out of sorts defensively. At one point, Banks had to shove him in the direction of an opposing player to help him figure out who to guard, and this wasn't the first possession for Zemgulis. So, I think this is really the deciding factor for who plays for Chambers. You have to show the requisite effort and be able to understand and execute your role on Defense.

I was just watching that coaching panel show on BTN and the ex Indiana coach (Davis?) talked about the difference between coach for the outcome and coaching for the process. He said that in his current SWC job, he can comfortably coach the process while when he was at Indiana (or if at another major job) he would have to coach for the outcome or fear being fired for a poor OOC record (for example). I really think this is the difference between the people who have given up on Chambers and those of us who still believe. We believers see the process and not the outcome.

 

[UncleLar]

Ok, what actually constitutes a blocking foul then? Does the offensive player have the right to drive straight at the basket? If not, then why do referees even call blocks. Most offensive players have lowered their shoulders somewhat if they are driving.

Simplistically, if a defensive player has established a guarding position between the offensive player and the basket, the defensive player is allowed to maintain that defensive position, i.e. between the offensive player and the basket, by moving with the offensive player. The offensive player can not just go through him to get to the basket. The offensive player needs to get his head and shoulders past the defensive player's torso before he makes an attempt to turn the corner. Technically, lowering the shoulder also means nothing; however, it does strongly indicate that the offensive player probably did not get his shoulders past the defensive player.

 

[UncleLar]

Your quote from the rule book proves everyone's point. Stevens didn't start his upward motion to attempt a field goal or pass. He had his head down driving to the basket and lowered his shoulder into Swanigan's midsection. I'll admit that live I thought it was a questionable call, but when I saw the replay they got it right and it wasn't even close.

Well I sure wouldn't say it proves everyone's point. It's simply the wrong rule and is irrelevant one way or the other.

 

[Yanks49]

The offensive player needs to get his head and shoulders past the defensive player's torso before he makes an attempt to turn the corner. Technically, lowering the shoulder also means nothing; however, it does strongly indicate that the offensive player probably did not get his shoulders past the defensive player.

Thanks, at least that makes some sense.

 

[AWS1022]

A few games ago, I saw Zemgulis play for the first time in a while and he was out of sorts defensively. At one point, Banks had to shove him in the direction of an opposing player to help him figure out who to guard, and this wasn't the first possession for Zemgulis. So, I think this is really the deciding factor for who plays for Chambers. You have to show the requisite effort and be able to understand and execute your role on Defense.

I was just watching that coaching panel show on BTN and the ex Indiana coach (Davis?) talked about the difference between coach for the outcome and coaching for the process. He said that in his current SWC job, he can comfortably coach the process while when he was at Indiana (or if at another major job) he would have to coach for the outcome or fear being fired for a poor OOC record (for example). I really think this is the difference between the people who have given up on Chambers and those of us who still believe. We believers see the process and not the outcome.

No, I think everyone looks at the process but it's the length of the process that people disagree on. So many posters on here post like Chambers has only been at PSU for a year or two. In the coaching world, six years is a long time.

 

[Harbaughsleepovers]

A few games ago, I saw Zemgulis play for the first time in a while and he was out of sorts defensively. At one point, Banks had to shove him in the direction of an opposing player to help him figure out who to guard, and this wasn't the first possession for Zemgulis. So, I think this is really the deciding factor for who plays for Chambers. You have to show the requisite effort and be able to understand and execute your role on Defense.

I was just watching that coaching panel show on BTN and the ex Indiana coach (Davis?) talked about the difference between coach for the outcome and coaching for the process. He said that in his current SWC job, he can comfortably coach the process while when he was at Indiana (or if at another major job) he would have to coach for the outcome or fear being fired for a poor OOC record (for example). I really think this is the difference between the people who have given up on Chambers and those of us who still believe. We believers see the process and not the outcome.

Jay Bilas wrote the forward in the book Dana O'Neil authored about Villanova's National Championship season. Jay Bilas recalled a
conversation with Jay where Jay's biggest concern was that he would be given the time to create the culture he wanted to create in an impatient results oriented city like Philadelphia and Jay was able to bring in the #2 rated recruiting class his first year.

Jay Wright recruited the #2 rated class in the country his first year, guy who would be the juniors and seniors Jay's 4th and 5th seasons. They didn't get to the tournament till Jay's 4th season. You know how much complaining there was about Jay Wright? He was called an empty suit.

We all saw how much hate James Franklin received in September, so much that Sandy Barbour had to give him the dreads vote of confidence.

James Franklin didn't even inherit a legitimate 2 deep at how many positions when he got the job and coming into this season he had 2 recruiting classes on campus, guys who were basically redshirt freshmen and freshmen. We had to play freshmen and redshirt freshmen on the offensive line and people are calling for James Franklin to be fired and pointing out his record against Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State? What roster did James Franklin have his first two seasons that should have beaten those teams? The heat on Franklin was absolutely absurd.

We live in a ADD works and it's all about immediate results. It's not about getting it done the right way and building something that can sustain itself.

Chambers didn't inherit a roster he could win with and there was pretty much no chance he was going to recruit a program changing class in 5 months at a program with unrivaled recruiting issues.

People can't see that or don't want to see it. It's much easier to say the coach is clueless and has to go.

 

[Harbaughsleepovers]

Yes, they loved it when Ed finished in fourth place two out of his last three years. Much better than the bottom half finishes Chambers almost always has. Come on dude, I doubt the other coaches even pay attention to where Chambers is recruiting. It's not like PSU is striking fear into anyone's heart at this point.

That makes about as much sense as saying opposing Big Ten coaches wouldn't care if every top 10 player in the state of PA had to go to Penn State to play football.

Your ability to win is contingent on your ability to recruit. It's not contingent on what coach has the best magic wand.

Ed's fluke NCAA Tournament season while a nice accomplishment was a senior driven fluke. Every coach in the Big Ten knew the writing was on the wall for Ed because he couldn't recruit well enough to sustain anything which is why Ed left for a Patriot League job.

If Penn State was capable of landing the best players in Philadelphia every year Penn State would be a premier program in the country.

So yes, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the presence of Watkins, Stevens and Carr on Penn State's roster and the succes they are having as FRESHMEN is concerning.

We beat out Maryland and Indiana for Carr and Stevens. Tom Crean is likely going to get fired. You think Carr and Stevens would have helped Indiana this year? You could argue that Crean is going to lose his job because he lost recruiting battles to Penn State.

Please explain to me why Big Ten coaches wouldn't care about Penn State having real success recruiting in the most fertile area in the state or Pennsylvania (Penn State's HOME STATE) when Tom Crean is about to get fired and he wanted Stevens and Carr badly.

I'll go on a limb and say Tom Crean is not happy with Penn State's ability to recruit Philadelphia.

I guarantee this is my last response to you. I literally can't respond to you anymore.

 

[Ranger Dan]

I guarantee this is my last response to you. I literally can't respond to you anymore.

I don't know who you are arguing with, because this other individual is on my ignore list. I highly recommend that you use the ignore feature to filter out the negative posters that provide little benefit and lots of drama.

 

[AWS1022]

Ed's fluke NCAA Tournament season while a nice accomplishment was a senior driven fluke.

So Ed's was a senior driven fluke yet you say we can't get rid of Chambers until this group of freshmen are seniors. So it's okay for Chambers to win every four years when his team is senior dominated but it was bad coaching when DeChellis did it. Come on man, at least get some consistency in your arguments. Just post that you like Chambers, you think he's the right guy for the job and you think he needs more time. That would be much better than the three page diatribes you always post that ramble on and on, insults anyone that disagrees with you, and gets half the stuff wrong. That just makes you look like a fool.

 

[TC4THREE]

Please post a link to where you saw or read that other Big 10 coaches would love to see Penn State cut ties with Chambers. I mean that's obviously not something someone would just make up, so you apparently have an in with the rest of the Big 10 coaches and you know what they think.

Just a fan of another team but I think Penn State would be foolish to switch from Chambers right now.

 

[AWS1022]

Just a fan of another team but I think Penn State would be foolish to switch from Chambers right now.

So does pretty much everyone on here. The big question is next year...another mediocre season and attitudes will change.

 

[novaclassof90]

B10 coaches don't care about Chambers recruiting Philly well. The two coaches that it is driving NUTS are Fran Dunphy and Phil Martelli. Temple and St. Joe's count on getting the 2nd tier Philly guys. The top guys like Ellington, Henderson, Quade Green in this year's class, etc. are going to the Duke, UNC, Kentucky programs as much as the big 5 tries to get them, local schools haven't had much luck with the superstuds. Even Villanova lately has swung and missed on a lot of the top talent Philly area guys. Guys like Arcidiacono, Mikal Bridges, and Darryl Reynolds were not Mickey D's AA's. Very good HS players, but not 5 stars.

But Jay Wright gets his share and now he knows that if he and Pat are competing for a guy, the kid is going to Nova (Mikal Bridges ex.). But Chambers is beating out Temple and St. Joe's directly for guys, and it is driving them nuts. Historically, they never had to worry about PSU coming down and getting Philly kids.

 

[Harbaughsleepovers]

B10 coaches don't care about Chambers recruiting Philly well. The two coaches that it is driving NUTS are Fran Dunphy and Phil Martelli. Temple and St. Joe's count on getting the 2nd tier Philly guys. The top guys like Ellington, Henderson, Quade Green in this year's class, etc. are going to the Duke, UNC, Kentucky programs as much as the big 5 tries to get them, local schools haven't had much luck with the superstuds. Even Villanova lately has swung and missed on a lot of the top talent Philly area guys. Guys like Arcidiacono, Mikal Bridges, and Darryl Reynolds were not Mickey D's AA's. Very good HS players, but not 5 stars.

But Jay Wright gets his share and now he knows that if he and Pat are competing for a guy, the kid is going to Nova (Mikal Bridges ex.). But Chambers is beating out Temple and St. Joe's directly for guys, and it is driving them nuts. Historically, they never had to worry about PSU coming down and getting Philly kids.

That's like saying the football coaches in the Big Ten wouldn't care or take notice if Maryland built a wall around the DMV. If Maryland ever did that they would become a powerhouse and that would impact the job security of everyone in the league. I guarantee Franklin would care.

You act like Carr and Stevens were tablescraps. Stevens had a scholarship offer from Villanova. Carr was the #1 overall recruit in PA. They were recruited by top tier programs. Would Penn State have beaten Maryland a few weeks ago if Carr and Stevens chose Maryland instead? No way. That win now helps Penn State in their efforts to recruit the DMV. Why would Mark Turgeon not care about that?

In what industry does the competition not care about your ability to attract quality people on a consistent basis, especially when they are a scarce resource?

These guys want to keep their jobs. How many cities in Big Ten states produce more quality talent year after year than Philadelphia? Why wouldn't Big Ten coaches care if Penn State opened up a pipeline into Philly?

A quality Penn State basketball program makes life more difficult for the other coaches in the league and being able to recruit Philadelphia successfully increases Penn State's odds of building a sustainable winner substantially.

 

[Nit16]

It's plenty logical. The closer to the end of a game that an action takes place the more important than action is. If you sink a final buzzer beater for a win, your opponent has no opportunity to respond. If you sink a shot clock beater in the first minute of the game, it's not that big a deal because your opponent has 39 more minutes to respond.

While each of those shots may be worth just two points (or three) on the scoreboard, the true value of any shot is how much it changes the odds of you winning the game. Down 1 point with the ball in your hands with a few seconds to go, you probably have about a 50% chance of winning a game. Make the shot and your probability of a win jumps significantly (50 points if the shot is a true buzzer beater). Same situation in the first minute of the game and it barely moves the needle on your odds of winning.

But man it would have been sweet if we didn't miss a couple of those free throws in the first half and finished off the two lay ups we missed in the 2nd half. But you're right! Game winners with no time left leave little chance(I mean no chance) for the opponent to come back. So the last 3 seconds is all that matters. Got it!

 

[Nit16]

There are different ways to look at it. When you look at something like win probability, a basket in the last 2 minutes of a tie game definitely means more than a basket in the opening minute of a game. So I would say that the timing is important in a close game.

Fair! But I still fall in the camp that in a close game there are 20 things, maybe more, that decides a games outcome. Focussing on the last minute events oversimplifies the discussion of what won or lost a game. For instance if a kid dribbles a ball off his foot out of bounds or misses a lay with 3 seconds left some consider that the play that cost the team the win. On the other hand the winning team outscored the other team 28-6 in the paint. Or the losing team was 11-19 from free throw line. I get what you're saying though and fair point.

 

[Nit16]

That's like saying the football coaches in the Big Ten wouldn't care or take notice if Maryland built a wall around the DMV. If Maryland ever did that they would become a powerhouse and that would impact the job security of everyone in the league. I guarantee Franklin would care.

You act like Carr and Stevens were tablescraps. Stevens had a scholarship offer from Villanova. Carr was the #1 overall recruit in PA. They were recruited by top tier programs. Would Penn State have beaten Maryland a few weeks ago if Carr and Stevens chose Maryland instead? No way. That win now helps Penn State in their efforts to recruit the DMV. Why would Mark Turgeon not care about that?

In what industry does the competition not care about your ability to attract quality people on a consistent basis, especially when they are a scarce resource?

These guys want to keep their jobs. How many cities in Big Ten states produce more quality talent year after year than Philadelphia? Why wouldn't Big Ten coaches care if Penn State opened up a pipeline into Philly?

A quality Penn State basketball program makes life more difficult for the other coaches in the league and being able to recruit Philadelphia successfully increases Penn State's odds of building a sustainable winner substantially.

Do really think Pat has, or ever will, build a wall around Philly?

 

[BlueBand]

Do really think Pat has, or ever will, build a wall around Philly?

Impossible. More quality players than one school can take in a year. Plus if you're recruiting for need and Philly players that year are loaded in a position you only need to take one, but deficient in another position, you have to look elsewhere. And as good as we may get, I doubt we'll ever be good enough to block out schools that recruit nationally like Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse from coming in and grabbing some players. And you have Villanova there as well, who recruits nationally but will go after select players in the city as well.

Now, I do think we can potentially get more players than the other schools, and take players that used to go to Temple, St Joe's, etc. as well as other schools outside Philly? Yes. So, maybe not a wall, but a fence. LOL

 

[UncleLar]

But man it would have been sweet if we didn't miss a couple of those free throws in the first half and finished off the two lay ups we missed in the 2nd half. But you're right! Game winners with no time left leave little chance(I mean no chance) for the opponent to come back. So the last 3 seconds is all that matters. Got it!

Win probability is a well recognized basketball statistical measure. There's a reason that the NBA has embraced advanced statistical measures. Virtually every NBA team employs multiple stat guys and every NBA arena has SportsVU cameras installed to gather advanced stats data. To summarily dismiss the concept with a snide remark like "the last 3 seconds is all that matters. Got it!" just demonstrates ignorance on your part.

 

[Raffycorn]

Impossible. More quality players than one school can take in a year. Plus if you're recruiting for need and Philly players that year are loaded in a position you only need to take one, but deficient in another position, you have to look elsewhere. And as good as we may get, I doubt we'll ever be good enough to block out schools that recruit nationally like Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse from coming in and grabbing some players. And you have Villanova there as well, who recruits nationally but will go after select players in the city as well.

Now, I do think we can potentially get more players than the other schools, and take players that used to go to Temple, St Joe's, etc. as well as other schools outside Philly? Yes. So, maybe not a wall, but a fence. LOL

Exactly. You can't build a wall around Philly - there's too many players, not enough scholarships, and too many big time programs both in the city and who recruit the city to do that.

But, what is possible for Penn State under Chambers is to build a fence around Roman Catholic. We already have four players on the roster who went there and, most importantly, Roman's new coach played for Chambers at Boston U and speaks glowingly about Chambers. We have offers out to 2019 SF Seth Lundy and 2020 PG Lynn Greer, and Roman's position in the city means they'll never be hurting for D1 talent.

There's a real chance for Penn State under Chambers to develop a true "in" with one of the premier basketball programs in the state that consistently produces high-level D1 talent. We have simply never, ever had that luxury here.

 

[Nit16]

Win probability is a well recognized basketball statistical measure. There's a reason that the NBA has embraced advanced statistical measures. Virtually every NBA team employs multiple stat guys and every NBA arena has SportsVU cameras installed to gather advanced stats data. To summarily dismiss the concept with a snide remark like "the last 3 seconds is all that matters. Got it!" just demonstrates ignorance on your part.

NBA! Wrong board friend. Followed college hoops for a long time. Win probability? Ok if you say so. Keep convincing yourself that you have it all figured out and smarter than the next guy. Bottom line is take your stats and throw them out the window. Purdue won because a guy hit two three pointers. The game got to OT because Penn State missed to many free throws or didn't get enough rebounds or had to many turnovers or didn't shoot well enough from three or.................Jam one of those into your advanced stat jibberish.

 

[UncleLar]

NBA! Wrong board friend. Followed college hoops for a long time. Win probability? Ok if you say so. Keep convincing yourself that you have it all figured out and smarter than the next guy. Bottom line is take your stats and throw them out the window. Purdue won because a guy hit two three pointers. The game got to OT because Penn State missed to many free throws or didn't get enough rebounds or had to many turnovers or didn't shoot well enough from three or.................Jam one of those into your advanced stat jibberish.

Frankly, you're the one who's living in a tower of ignorance. Maybe the problem is that you have followed college hoops for a such a long time that you have a closed mind when it comes to anything new. Like I said, there's a reason that the pros, and also many colleges, have embraced advanced stat metrics - and it's certainly not because it doesn't give them any insight into the game.

Plus, FTR, nobody here made any claim about what advanced metrics say about the Purdue game. What's particularly laughable, is that, if you were to run the numbers, there's a pretty good chance that win probability would tell you that those two three pointers were, in fact, the two biggest plays of the game. Those first of those two shots, took Purdue from down 1 point into the lead (a lead that they never relinquished) with two minutes to go. The second shot put them up four points with under a minute to go, taking Purdue to 74 points, a number that Penn State never reached. You got all hot and bothered when we pointed out that plays at the end of a close game have more value that plays that took place earlier on, yet had no problem saying that Purdue's last two shots from the floor were the reason that they won. Seems to me, according to your view they were only worth six points, which would be the same number of points that Shep Garner made with his two threes in the game. Yet I don't think anyone in their right mind would suggest that Garner's two made three-pointers were just as valuable as Cline's two three-pointers.

 

[Harbaughsleepovers]

Do really think Pat has, or ever will, build a wall around Philly?

I provided an exaggerated scenario to make a point. I thought that was pretty clear.

Pennsylvania is the only state in the country where Penn State basketball has an opportunity to be the most relevant program in the state. That doesn't mean it will, but it's the only state where it is possible. It's not going to be the most relevant program in Ohio, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, etc. Penn State is never going to consistently out recruit Ohio State in the state of Ohio.

Of all the major cities in the Big Ten footprint, Philadelphia is one of the best at producing high level D1 basketball talent.

Penn State is a much bigger threat in the Big Ten if it can legitimately recruit the city of Philadelphia and the DMV. To argue that would be insane.

If you were in a fishing competition, would you be more worried about the guy who consistently has success fishing in the same pond that is always loaded with fish or the guy who is a poor fisherman and never ever knows what pond to go fishing in?

BTW: Penn State has a budget. Do you think Penn State can be infinitely more efficient in recruiting if it's core recruiting is done in Philly and the DMV?

How efficient and effective can Penn State be in recruiting if you are going after players in Minnesota, Indiana, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, etc? All states where you are not even close to a destination school for the top players.

There is a reason why Penn State until recently consistently recruited classes that ranked at the bottom of the Big Ten. It's not that complicated.

 

[Nit16]

Frankly, you're the one who's living in a tower of ignorance. Maybe the problem is that you have followed college hoops for a such a long time that you have a closed mind when it comes to anything new. Like I said, there's a reason that the pros, and also many colleges, have embraced advanced stat metrics - and it's certainly not because it doesn't give them any insight into the game.

Plus, FTR, nobody here made any claim about what advanced metrics say about the Purdue game. What's particularly laughable, is that, if you were to run the numbers, there's a pretty good chance that win probability would tell you that those two three pointers were, in fact, the two biggest plays of the game. Those first of those two shots, took Purdue from down 1 point into the lead (a lead that they never relinquished) with two minutes to go. The second shot put them up four points with under a minute to go, taking Purdue to 74 points, a number that Penn State never reached. You got all hot and bothered when we pointed out that plays at the end of a close game have more value that plays that took place earlier on, yet had no problem saying that Purdue's last two shots from the floor were the reason that they won. Seems to me, according to your view they were only worth six points, which would be the same number of points that Shep Garner made with his two threes in the game. Yet I don't think anyone in their right mind would suggest that Garner's two made three-pointers were just as valuable as Cline's two three-pointers.

Lighten up Francis. I didn't bother reading your emotional jibberish. Give me the cliffs please.

 

[UncleLar]

Lighten up Francis. I didn't bother reading your emotional jibberish. Give me the cliffs please.

Read an actual book instead of the Cliff Notes and sometime you might actually learn something.

 

[Nit16]

Read an actual book instead of the Cliff Notes and sometime you might actually learn something.

Doubt I learn much from you brother! Actually positive about that.