Relative Performance Index - Rose Bowl Predictor

[CaliLION79]

https://fortheblogy.com/analytics-b...bcs-of-penn-state-football-rose-bowl-preview/

Our analytics guy used Relative Performance Index to forecast statistical output and a final score between Penn State-Utah. We ran this formula for the entire 2021 bowl season and it hit 64 percent ATS...which means the same algorithm will probable bomb predicting this game.

 

[CaliLION79]

For those who don't like reading...all the projections in video/audio form

 

[Obliviax]

 

[PSUQBKeeper]

I'll wait for the NCAA video game to predict 38 to 34 Utah in OT

 

[Wallace Breen]

Another poorly thought out attempt to quantitatively understand an entirely qualitative sport. This one is especially poor given the near complete lack of consideration of strength of schedule.

 

[PaoliLion]

https://fortheblogy.com/analytics-b...bcs-of-penn-state-football-rose-bowl-preview/

Our analytics guy used Relative Performance Index to forecast statistical output and a final score between Penn State-Utah. We ran this formula for the entire 2021 bowl season and it hit 64 percent ATS...which means the same algorithm will probable bomb predicting this game.

This is a very tough one to predict. The two teams don’t play common opponents and bowl games are always a bit of a crap shoot because it ends up being a bit of an exhibition game.

 

[GregInPitt]

This is a very tough one to predict. The two teams don’t play common opponents and bowl games are always a bit of a crap shoot because it ends up being a bit of an exhibition game.

In simplistic terms, I believe PSU has a much more talented roster and a deeper team. So with Utah missing their 2 best players for the game, versus PSU without 2 of it's best players in Porter and Washington, I believe PSU can make up for their losses more easily and still have the depth to substitute and win a knock down drag out game. And I hope a couple of WR's can step up in the game and prove me correct.....

 

[Obliviax]

Another poorly thought out attempt to quantitatively understand an entirely qualitative sport. This one is especially poor given the near complete lack of consideration of strength of schedule.

You may be taking this too seriously. Just sayin.

 

[Phil's Rug]

Another poorly thought out attempt to quantitatively understand an entirely qualitative sport. This one is especially poor given the near complete lack of consideration of strength of schedule.

 

[Lattner]

Rising will throw for 400 yards and lose a close game.

 

[PSUQBKeeper]

lol it does include strength of schedule though, or at least takes it into account as it is looking at performance relative to other teams who played the same schedule

 

[Wallace Breen]

You may be taking this too seriously. Just sayin.

Statistics are serious business.

 

[Wallace Breen]

lol it does include strength of schedule though, or at least takes it into account as it is looking at performance relative to other teams who played the same schedule

Barely, and it doesn't attempt to capture anything beyond the superficial.

 

[Psugo823]

I'll wait for the NCAA video game to predict 38 to 34 Utah in OT

The guy who does those is a Pitt fan. He had PSU losing 7 games this year lmao

 

[bdgan]

Rising will throw for 400 yards and lose a close game.

Sounds like the good old days. I remember Boston College passing gor 605 yards and we still won 52-17.

 

[TangSoo]

Barely, and it doesn't attempt to capture anything beyond the superficial.

Clearly Utah underperformed in this simulation.

 

[LafayetteBear]

Another poorly thought out attempt to quantitatively understand an entirely qualitative sport. This one is especially poor given the near complete lack of consideration of strength of schedule.

An even bigger factor that has not been taken into account in that analysis is all the players who have opted out. That HAS to affect things quite a bit.

 

[lazydave841]

An even bigger factor that has not been taken into account in that analysis is all the players who have opted out. That HAS to affect things quite a bit.

Definitely so.

 

[wilbury]

Rising will throw for 400 yards and lose a close game.

He's only thrown for 300 twice this year - both against a pathetic USC defense. I'm more worried about him running.

 

[wilbury]

I understand the "Penn State hasn't doesn't have a good win" argument, but Utah isn't that much different. They lost to all of their ranked opponents except USC who they beat twice. I'm not so sure USC is a very good team.

 

[Wallace Breen]

I understand the "Penn State hasn't doesn't have a good win" argument, but Utah isn't that much different. They lost to all of their ranked opponents except USC who they beat twice. I'm not so sure USC is a very good team.

USC has four wins better than any of our ten and another that is just as good. Two wins over USC are very good wins. Outside of USC, Utah has an additional good win against Oregon State and two more wins equal to any of ours. Add it all up and Utah has three good wins to our zero and two wins roughly equivalent to any our our ten. USC has four wins better than any of ours and another that is equal. Based on quality wins and strength of schedule, we rank no higher than 5th in the Pac Ten behind USC, Utah, Washington and Oregon. The Big Ten was really, really bad this year and most don't know it or won't admit it.

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

USC has four wins better than any of our ten and another that is just as good. Two wins over USC are very good wins. Outside of USC, Utah has an additional good win against Oregon State and two more wins equal to any of ours. Add it all up and Utah has three good wins to our zero and two wins roughly equivalent to any our our ten. USC has four wins better than any of ours and another that is equal. Based on quality wins and strength of schedule, we rank no higher than 5th in the Pac Ten behind USC, Utah, Washington and Oregon. The Big Ten was really, really bad this year and most don't know it or won't admit it.

But in your analysis of "quality wins" did you take into account strength of schedule. If so, how did you do it? How do you know whether the Pac10 is a lot stronger or a lot weaker compared to the B1G? Would you be basing this on a statistically insignificant number of samples?

 

[lazydave841]

USC didn't play Oregon nor Washington. They played the equivalent of the Big 10 West and Utah. Let's not kid ourselves in this sort of stuff.

 

[Wallace Breen]

But in your analysis of "quality wins" did you take into account strength of schedule. If so, how did you do it? How do you know whether the Pac10 is a lot stronger or a lot weaker compared to the B1G? Would you be basing this on a statistically insignificant number of samples?

When it comes to quality wins, we are talking strength of schedule in a multidimensional sense rather than the superficial which is what most do because it is easy. Look at Maryland. One win over a team (7-6 SMU) with a winning record. SMU has one win over a team with a winning record. Keep filtering down. This pattern repeats itself across our ten wins. We beat bad teams. Now, that doesn't mean we aren't actually a good team but when you compare our record to the top four in the Pac-12, it certainly isn't favorable. What I define as a good win is a combinitorially complex matrix that looks two to three dimensions into strength of schedule. I am not telling you the secret source but Franklin's record against good teams (per the formula) during the regular season is below 10% and ranking have nothing to do with it. He was 0 for 2 this year. He was 0 for 4 last season. He beats bad teams, goes .500 against mediocre teams and loses to good one at a rate exceeding 90%.

 

[marshall23]

You may be taking this too seriously. Just sayin.

Round peg, square hole.

 

[PSUQBKeeper]

Round peg, square hole.

are you sure that it is SQUARE that you're looking for there?

 

[marshall23]

USC has four wins better than any of our ten and another that is just as good. Two wins over USC are very good wins. Outside of USC, Utah has an additional good win against Oregon State and two more wins equal to any of ours. Add it all up and Utah has three good wins to our zero and two wins roughly equivalent to any our our ten. USC has four wins better than any of ours and another that is equal. Based on quality wins and strength of schedule, we rank no higher than 5th in the Pac Ten behind USC, Utah, Washington and Oregon. The Big Ten was really, really bad this year and most don't know it or won't admit it.

Why did PSU even bother to travel to LA?

 

[BBHorn86]

When it comes to quality wins, we are talking strength of schedule in a multidimensional sense rather than the superficial which is what most do because it is easy. Look at Maryland. One win over a team (7-6 SMU) with a winning record. SMU has one win over a team with a winning record. Keep filtering down. This pattern repeats itself across our ten wins. We beat bad teams. Now, that doesn't mean we aren't actually a good team but when you compare our record to the top four in the Pac-12, it certainly isn't favorable. What I define as a good win is a combinitorially complex matrix that looks two to three dimensions into strength of schedule. I am not telling you the secret source but Franklin's record against good teams (per the formula) during the regular season is below 10% and ranking have nothing to do with it. He was 0 for 2 this year. He was 0 for 4 last season. He beats bad teams, goes .500 against mediocre teams and loses to good one at a rate exceeding 90%.

Can't argue with any of your comments but I just decided I will not waste my time watching the game. No chance we win....... too bad we aren't lining up in the Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse! Oh well there is always next year.

 

[CbusLion10]

When it comes to quality wins, we are talking strength of schedule in a multidimensional sense rather than the superficial which is what most do because it is easy. Look at Maryland. One win over a team (7-6 SMU) with a winning record. SMU has one win over a team with a winning record. Keep filtering down. This pattern repeats itself across our ten wins. We beat bad teams. Now, that doesn't mean we aren't actually a good team but when you compare our record to the top four in the Pac-12, it certainly isn't favorable. What I define as a good win is a combinitorially complex matrix that looks two to three dimensions into strength of schedule. I am not telling you the secret source but Franklin's record against good teams (per the formula) during the regular season is below 10% and ranking have nothing to do with it. He was 0 for 2 this year. He was 0 for 4 last season. He beats bad teams, goes .500 against mediocre teams and loses to good one at a rate exceeding 90%.

Utah is good. You think <10% chance Penn State wins?

 

[wilbury]

USC has four wins better than any of our ten and another that is just as good. Two wins over USC are very good wins. Outside of USC, Utah has an additional good win against Oregon State and two more wins equal to any of ours. Add it all up and Utah has three good wins to our zero and two wins roughly equivalent to any our our ten. USC has four wins better than any of ours and another that is equal. Based on quality wins and strength of schedule, we rank no higher than 5th in the Pac Ten behind USC, Utah, Washington and Oregon. The Big Ten was really, really bad this year and most don't know it or won't admit it.

By that measure we beat MSU who has a better win than any USC has.

 

[marshall23]

By that measure we beat MSU who has a better win than any USC has.

Sounds like Coach Wally's Purdue prediction.

 

[Wallace Breen]

By that measure we beat MSU who has a better win than any USC has.

USC has several wins better than any Michigan State has.

 

[marshall23]

USC has several wins better than any Michigan State has.

USC is a juggernaut. Their conference victories came against teams with a 25-47 record (8games). PSU trails far behind at 22-41(7 games).

 

[Wallace Breen]

USC is a juggernaut. Their conference victories came against teams with a 25-47 record (8games). PSU trails far behind at 22-41(7 games).

That is very superficial. Dig deeper.

 

[NittanyChris]

Wallace’s in depth analysis of the Rose Bowl:

1. If PSU wins, Utah was an overrated fraud of a team.
2. If PSU loses, Utah is only the 3rd good team PSU played all season along with Michigan and Ohio State and the game illustrates that PSU can only beat weak teams.

 

[marshall23]

Wallace’s in depth analysis of the Rose Bowl:

1. If PSU wins, Utah was an overrated fraud of a team.
2. If PSU loses, Utah is only the 3rd good team PSU played all season along with Michigan and Ohio State and the game illustrates that PSU can only beat weak teams.

It's in the metrics.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Wallace’s in depth analysis of the Rose Bowl:

1. If PSU wins, Utah was an overrated fraud of a team.
2. If PSU loses, Utah is only the 3rd good team PSU played all season along with Michigan and Ohio State and the game illustrates that PSU can only beat weak teams.

We beat good teams 9.256789045678945678956789% of the time. We lose 90% plus of the time.

 

[marshall23]

USC didn't play 7-2 Washington, nor 7-2 Oregon and lost to 7-2 Utah twice. It's best conference wins were vs 6-3 UCLA and Oregon State.
Of course this doesn't address the combinatorically complex matrix or the angle of the dangle or the heat of the meat.

 

[marshall23]

We beat good teams 9.256789045678945678956789% of the time. We lose 90% plus of the time.

"We" LOL

 

[FLMike]

The reality is they are the Champions of their conference and we are 3rd in ours. We shouldn't be favored but I believe in us!