Manny Diaz's PSU Defense - Advanced Stats

[CaliLION79]

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Bye Week: The Manny Diaz Difference

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Article details how this edition of Penn State's defense has been historically dominant in several key metrics thus far.

 

[NedFromYork]

Love Penn State’s ‘If It flies, it dies’ secondary line.

 

[PSU20]

Michigan will be the test for sure against that OL which is a far cry from Auburn.

 

[KC-KS-Lion]

I like that he plays aggressive, uses the players' athleticism, and at least to this point seems unpredictable. I hope this continues and can be said for the remainder of this year and however long (I think it will be shorter than many hope) he's here...and when he leaves, he leaves behind a philosophical disciple.

 

[PSU2UNC]

Michigan will be the test for sure against that OL which is a far cry from Auburn.

What are you basing that comparison on exactly? Michigan has only played two teams with a pulse and didn't exactly look amazing while doing it.

 

[scrivener]

What are you basing that comparison on exactly? Michigan has only played two teams with a pulse and didn't exactly look amazing while doing it.

But, what they do well, and pretty much on an annual basis, is run the ball and play physical football. That stems from a mentality instilled through coaches and scheme, and usually a rugged OL that is stronger in run blocking than pass protection. Not everything is based on schedule strength -- some things are just 'the norm' or pretty much a safe assumption. Conversely, PSU isn't exactly physical on offense, and JF really doesn't style his team that way. He wants athletes and getting guys in space to make plays...we know this regardless of schedule. So far, Ohio State looks really good on offense, and that is without Smith-Njigba for most of the season. They haven't played a good schedule either, but we know they are damn good.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

What are you basing that comparison on exactly? Michigan has only played two teams with a pulse and didn't exactly look amazing while doing it.

Agree with that - you have all kinds of people declaring how awesome Maryland is (very similar to the comments about Minny before last Saturday)... we have no idea how good Maryland is - we'll know a lot more after this weekend. In the b1g rankings article they're saying Maryland could be 8-1 when PSU plays them.... they could just as easily be 5-4.

 

[PSU2UNC]

But, what they do well, and pretty much on an annual basis, is run the ball and play physical football. That stems from a mentality instilled through coaches and scheme, and usually a rugged OL that is stronger in run blocking than pass protection. Not everything is based on schedule strength -- some things are just 'the norm' or pretty much a safe assumption. Conversely, PSU isn't exactly physical on offense, and JF really doesn't style his team that way. He wants athletes and getting guys in space to make plays...we know this regardless of schedule. So far, Ohio State looks really good on offense, and that is without Smith-Njigba for most of the season. They haven't played a good schedule either, but we know they are damn good.

Last year Michigan rushed for 3.5 yards per carry against PSU. PSU's Dline should be better this year than last AND Michigan no longer has Haskins.

Michigan being physical on offense has no bearing on whether PSU is physical on offense.

I agree OSU is damn good, but they beat ND and de-pantsed Wisconsin (who is down this year, but still potentially better than anyone Michigan has played).

 

[scrivener]

Last year Michigan rushed for 3.5 yards per carry against PSU. PSU's Dline should be better this year than last AND Michigan no longer has Haskins.

Michigan being physical on offense has no bearing on whether PSU is physical on offense.

I agree OSU is damn good, but they beat ND and de-pantsed Wisconsin (who is down this year, but still potentially better than anyone Michigan has played).

D-line is better we will have to see...but LB's are equally, if not more important, in stopping the run and that is a position that is not as good as last year without Luketa, Brooks, Smith, etc. Michigan still has Corum who has 10 TD's so far and over 6 ypc. Last year's matchup pretty much means nil for this years game. College Football has become so year-by-year when it comes to analyzing a matchup, especially with the portal and in essence, free agency, that roster's look so different. My point was, we know that Michigan, at least functionally, is better up front than Auburn, who is a total mess without an identity. We know Michigan's identity, pound the rock, set up 3rd and shorts, and then move the sticks with short/intermediate throws. It's Harbaugh's way. Can our LB's meet the challenge of stopping the run before they take on blockers at the second level, while also covering the middle of the field much better than they have...ehh, that is my worry spot on defense.

 

[PSU2UNC]

D-line is better we will have to see...but LB's are equally, if not more important, in stopping the run and that is a position that is not as good as last year without Luketa, Brooks, Smith, etc. Michigan still has Corum who has 10 TD's so far and over 6 ypc. Last year's matchup pretty much means nil for this years game. College Football has become so year-by-year when it comes to analyzing a matchup, especially with the portal and in essence, free agency, that roster's look so different. My point was, we know that Michigan, at least functionally, is better up front than Auburn, who is a total mess without an identity. We know Michigan's identity, pound the rock, set up 3rd and shorts, and then move the sticks with short/intermediate throws. It's Harbaugh's way. Can our LB's meet the challenge of stopping the run before they take on blockers at the second level, while also covering the middle of the field much better than they have...ehh, that is my worry spot on defense.

Indeed we will see.

I would argue Michigan's OL hasn't played a defense anywhere near as good as PSU's. Iowa would be the only team in the ball park and Michigan averaged only 4.1 ypc (and less than 5 yard per play) against them. Not scary.

I think PSU's LBs may be just as talented this year -- just younger. And with Mustipher and Beamon back on the DL, I don't hesitate to say the front seven is better this year.

Auburn identity is also to set up short yardage third downs by running Tank Bigsby, much the same way UM uses Corum (except Bigsby is the much better back). How did that work out for Auburn?

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

But, what they do well, and pretty much on an annual basis, is run the ball and play physical football. That stems from a mentality instilled through coaches and scheme, and usually a rugged OL that is stronger in run blocking than pass protection. Not everything is based on schedule strength -- some things are just 'the norm' or pretty much a safe assumption. Conversely, PSU isn't exactly physical on offense, and JF really doesn't style his team that way. He wants athletes and getting guys in space to make plays...we know this regardless of schedule. So far, Ohio State looks really good on offense, and that is without Smith-Njigba for most of the season. They haven't played a good schedule either, but we know they are damn good.

Too funny, you act like scUM has been some kind of dominating team year-in, year-out or something. You do realize that scUM's record was 2-4, 9-4, 10-3, 8-5 and 10-3 in the 5 previous years to last year? Over the same span. PSU's record was 4-5, 11-2, 9-4, 11-2 and 11-3. IOW, PSU was 46-16 with three 11-win seasons over the 5 year span, while scUM was 39-19 with zero 11-win seasons over the 5 year span.

 

[bvillebaron]

But, what they do well, and pretty much on an annual basis, is run the ball and play physical football. That stems from a mentality instilled through coaches and scheme, and usually a rugged OL that is stronger in run blocking than pass protection. Not everything is based on schedule strength -- some things are just 'the norm' or pretty much a safe assumption. Conversely, PSU isn't exactly physical on offense, and JF really doesn't style his team that way. He wants athletes and getting guys in space to make plays...we know this regardless of schedule. So far, Ohio State looks really good on offense, and that is without Smith-Njigba for most of the season. They haven't played a good schedule either, but we know they are damn good.

And what Wisconsin does pretty much on an annual basis is run the ball and play physical football. That is until they rushed for 8 yards last week which got their coach fired.

 

[scrivener]

Indeed we will see.

I would argue Michigan's OL hasn't played a defense anywhere near as good as PSU's. Iowa would be the only team in the ball park and Michigan averaged only 4.1 ypc (and less than 5 yard per play) against them. Not scary.

I think PSU's LBs may be just as talented this year -- just younger. And with Mustipher and Beamon back on the DL, I don't hesitate to say the front seven is better this year.

Auburn identity is also to set up short yardage third downs by running Tank Bigsby, much the same way UM uses Corum (except Bigsby is the much better back). How did that work out for Auburn?

Iowa's D is always salty until they run out of gas b/c their offense stinks. The LB's are talented like Carter and the veteran Jacobs, but really, that corps of Sutherland, Elsdon, King, etc., just isn't great shakes at this point. This next month will really test that group. I'm not going to try and sway you about Michigan's identity, you are well versed in football and know what I'm getting at. Auburn is a dumpster fire and imploding, and currently have no identity. Teams like Michigan, Wisky, Iowa, etc., pretty much have the same analysis on BTN that we all know are givens each year....they are physical at the LOS on both sides, and want to ball control you and pound the football. Now, that doesn't guarantee a quality year, but they know what they are. I think a lack of an identity at times, has hampered JF and the squad over some yrs.

 

[scrivener]

Too funny, you act like scUM has been some kind of dominating team year-in, year-out or something. You do realize that scUM's record was 2-4, 9-4, 10-3, 8-5 and 10-3 in the 5 previous years to last year? Over the same span. PSU's record was 4-5, 11-2, 9-4, 11-2 and 11-3. IOW, PSU was 46-16 with three 11-win seasons over the 5 year span, while scUM was 39-19 with zero 11-win seasons over the 5 year span.

Umm...I didn't say they had great records over these last several years, was only describing their 'philosophy' and approach under Harbaugh. It's pretty obvious. Brohm loves to throw the ball and spread you out virtually every play, Michigan wants to pound you with double TE's, and ball control. That's all I said.

 

[scrivener]

And what Wisconsin does pretty much on an annual basis is run the ball and play physical football. That is until they rushed for 8 yards last week which got their coach fired.

So a one-game example sample size over years of truly doing what they do...ok.

 

[PSU2UNC]

Umm...I didn't say they had great records over these last several years, was only describing their 'philosophy' and approach under Harbaugh. It's pretty obvious. Brohm loves to throw the ball and spread you out virtually every play, Michigan wants to pound you with double TE's, and ball control. That's all I said.

I don't disagree that this is their philosophy. I do disagree that this is necessary a "successful philosophy" or that it will be a bad matchup for PSU. Fair?

 

[scrivener]

I don't disagree that this is their philosophy. I do disagree that this is necessary a "successful philosophy" or that it will be a bad matchup for PSU. Fair?

Oh for sure...I wasn't implying that. I do think that the 'system' Michigan runs will put extreme pressure on our LB's who aren't the biggest run stuffers in the world, and are more of the athletic, pass rushing types. I was just thinking about this on my walk, lol, if the defense doesn't give up cheapies...PI flags to move the sticks, a handful of big runs/passes, and instead makes Michigan earn it, we have a great shot. But, if Michigan, puts together super long drives and wins that way, fine, you made them work for it. Where PSU can't survive long is giving up two or three play drives to a team that doesn't really do that. I think as an aggregate, we have more talent top to bottom -- and no Hutchinson and Ojabo to deal with, the former just destroyed us last year.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Umm...I didn't say they had great records over these last several years, was only describing their 'philosophy' and approach under Harbaugh. It's pretty obvious. Brohm loves to throw the ball and spread you out virtually every play, Michigan wants to pound you with double TE's, and ball control. That's all I said.

Yea, but they haven't run the ball all that successfully against PSU even when they've won, last year being a good example. Last year scUM only averaged 3.5 ypc against PSU's D on 41 attempts. In fact, scUM's running game isn't what won the game for them -- you do realize that PSU was winning the game until the Referines allowed scUM to clearly illegally run a "pick play" for a TD (i.e., very obvious Offensive PI but no flag from the cheating Referines).

 

[scrivener]

Yea, but they haven't run the ball all that successfully against PSU even when they've won, last year being a good example. Last year scUM only averaged 3.1 ypc against PSU's D on 41 attempts. In fact, scUM's running game isn't what won the game for them -- you do realize that PSU was winning the game until the Referines allowed scUM to clearly illegally run a "pick play" for a TD (i.e., very obvious Offensive PI but no flag from the cheating Referines).

Yep, I know. And, that awful fake FG call in the 1st quarter was ridiculous. But, every season is different. We look to be better than last year (crossing fingers we don't have a nose dive which has happened at times), and Michigan looks to have a very promising young QB, but question marks that maybe they didn't have last year. Should be a great game...but I take very little about previous matchups especially in CFB where rosters look so different, typically, year to year

 

[Parkerdam555]

D-line is better we will have to see...but LB's are equally, if not more important, in stopping the run and that is a position that is not as good as last year without Luketa, Brooks, Smith, etc. Michigan still has Corum who has 10 TD's so far and over 6 ypc. Last year's matchup pretty much means nil for this years game. College Football has become so year-by-year when it comes to analyzing a matchup, especially with the portal and in essence, free agency, that roster's look so different. My point was, we know that Michigan, at least functionally, is better up front than Auburn, who is a total mess without an identity. We know Michigan's identity, pound the rock, set up 3rd and shorts, and then move the sticks with short/intermediate throws. It's Harbaugh's way. Can our LB's meet the challenge of stopping the run before they take on blockers at the second level, while also covering the middle of the field much better than they have...ehh, that is my worry spot on defense.

I will argue that 11, 23, and 43 are playing better together this year than 12 played with anyone last year.

 

[lazydave841]

Iowa's D is always salty until they run out of gas b/c their offense stinks.

Iowa played Michigan solid, but once Michigan scored 20, the game was out of reach. The big thing Iowa did was that they didn't let Corum beat em on huge TD runs. His long for the game was 20.

Something Michigan did very well was protect the football. 0 turnovers. Michigan made a lot of safe passes. They played strictly to the numbers quite a bit. 6 in the box, they ran the ball.

 

[Aardvark86]

I mean, this is sort of interesting and all, but for a guy purporting to do a stat-based analysis, comparing a first 5 games sample size (generally reflecting the easiest opponents of a given season) with full season sample sizes (which tend to reflect tougher later season opponents) is not exactly enlightening.

Now if you want to take those measures and then further index them based on some sort of strength of schedule metric, that might be more interesting. Just for fun, I took a look at historic Sagarin SOS ranks. Currently, PSU's SOS is 68.16. In the year range in question, their final schedule has never ranked below 70, with a median of 72.65.

 

[CaliLION79]

For those who don't like reading...

 

[OldiesAtTheGaff]

More on Manny...

 

[WIP2001]

This D is fun to watch, fun to play in and will probably lead to even better recruiting. Easy to sell “wreaking havoc” and putting up individual stats on D.

Wish Manny would pick his spots better with the blitz. No need to put Carter on a downfield island against NW when a blown coverage is literally the only way NW could score.

The 3rd down pass when NW got to the 1 yard line was because Manny brought the house but played 2 corners 10 yards off vs. 2 receivers. The bubble screen was easy pickings.

 

[WIP2001]

Oh… and if I’m an O-coordinator and I see Elsdon in man coverage, I’m calling a rub/crosser and then lighting a cigar. Manny can’t put him in that position.

 

[lazydave841]

Wish Manny would pick his spots better with the blitz. No need to put Carter on a downfield island against NW when a blown coverage is literally the only way NW could score.

I've been curious about that play. Watching it live, I wondered if it was a cover 2 zone that the safety was supposed to take. Carter dropped into coverage but gave no inclination to me that he was in man coverage vs the slot. Of course, he could have blown his coverage.


Additionally, this was one of those multiple DB looks as well. I think Reed and Wheatley were the 2 high Safetys and Brown was in at MLB essentially. They had 1 WR triangled over the middle.

Love to see an all 22 of this play.

 

[WIP2001]

I've been curious about that play. Watching it live, I wondered if it was a cover 2 zone that the safety was supposed to take. Carter dropped into coverage but gave no inclination to me that he was in man coverage vs the slot. Of course, he could have blown his coverage.


Additionally, this was one of those multiple DB looks as well. I think Reed and Wheatley were the 2 high Safetys and Brown was in at MLB essentially. They had 1 WR triangled over the middle.

Love to see an all 22 of this play.

Good catch! Just rewatched and still not sure. D might’ve played it wrong, confused by the empty set.

Looks like cover 2 on the field side b/c you can see the corner pass off the WR. Might be man to the boundary b/c Wilson covers the WR dragging across the middle.

The extra slot to the field ran past Elsdon‘s drop in the middle. Since the field safety went to that deep receiver, the boundary safety either bit or did his job covering the deep middle. Left Carter as the only defender at the boundary.

 

[jferretti]

What are you basing that comparison on exactly? Michigan has only played two teams with a pulse and didn't exactly look amazing while doing it.

we haven't played a murderers row either. Michigan controlled the game offensively against a good Iowa defense. Our defensive front will be tested.

 

[jferretti]

Iowa played Michigan solid, but once Michigan scored 20, the game was out of reach. The big thing Iowa did was that they didn't let Corum beat em on huge TD runs. His long for the game was 20.

Something Michigan did very well was protect the football. 0 turnovers. Michigan made a lot of safe passes. They played strictly to the numbers quite a bit. 6 in the box, they ran the ball.

Welcome to Jimmy ball. We will see the same thing. I worry about the offense more than the defense however. Which of our WR's are going to worry Michigan?

 

[lazydave841]

Which of our WR's are going to worry Michigan?

Good question. I think based upon what we have seen thus far, we don't have a WR playing like Dotson did last year. To the contrary, we haven't needed it yet other than the late drive vs Purdue. In that game, the common denominator on all of our scoring drives was Tinsley. He isn't Dotson, but he's been a very good replacement that we have only scratched the surface with.

Washington probably doesn't strike fear in Michigan, but he's really good at getting open. Clifford has missed him no less than 5 times this year. He's our overall leading receiver, who I think will draw Sanristil (converted WR to CB) in the slot quite a bit.

Strange has turned into a big time target this year in addition to his blocking improvement. 3rd in receptions, 2nd in yards, 1st yards per catch and TDs. We really haven't even seen him used as a focal point yet, but that can be said about our passing game as a whole.

This isn't accounting for our RBs either. Not that they are a huge passing threat (yet), but Michigan hasn't defended backs like Singleton and Allen yet.

 

[PSU2UNC]

we haven't played a murderers row either. Michigan controlled the game offensively against a good Iowa defense. Our defensive front will be tested.

Iowa's defensive front is not dissimilar (on paper) to Auburn's.

I'm not saying it will not be a test, but I think UM's offense is worse than last year.

 

[lazydave841]

Penn State football film review | Manny Diaz’s different looks make defense shine against Northwestern

In past years, Penn State's defense has been the highlight of the team, and this year is no different.

www.collegian.psu.edu

 

[PSUEngineer89]

Isn't it rational to assume that Michigan has a pretty good O-Line? Just based on their ability to recruit and pure statistics?

It isn't like a QB situation, where you have only a few QBs on the roster and one recruiting miss or hit can make the QB position great or pretty awful.

Sure we can all play the game that "they haven't played anyone", or "Maryland looks great".

But it is FAR MORE LIKELY that Maryland's O-Line isn't that good because its mostly former 2 and 3 stars, while Michigan's line is going to be all 4 stars.

"But Alabama hasn't played anyone" Hahahahahaha. Seriously?

 

[lazydave841]

According to Analytics: Penn State’s Best Defensive Players so far

Penn State’s defense has lived up to its standard through five games of the Manny Diaz era. So far, Penn State is giving up just 14.8 points

nittanysportsnow.com

More defensive stats. Interesting that PFF #s rates Elsdon higher than Kobe King, albeit by on 3 pts, yet most generally put Elsdon down more often.

Older bro Kalen though. LOCKDOWN. CORNER. BACK. 7 receptions given up. 3 vs Purdue. 96 yards. 6 PBUs. Highest rated CB in the country.

Beamon and Robinson will shock ya too.