PSU 14 pt favorite over Maryland
- Thread starter bdgan
- Start date
Will take those points if they are offered.
But blion72 said MD would be favored? This must be #FAKENEWS!
Well here's what I said last night (11:14 PM) in the Does WVU Loss Put Us In Driver's Seat... thread:
>>...I'm thinking we're gonna be in the range of a 12-15 point favorite. Playing at home...<<
To be clear, I like Penn State to win on Saturday with room to spare. But as a betting man, no way do I touch that line.
>>...I'm thinking we're gonna be in the range of a 12-15 point favorite. Playing at home...<<
To be clear, I like Penn State to win on Saturday with room to spare. But as a betting man, no way do I touch that line.
Their defense is as big a problem as our offense. Something's gotta give.
It's timing. PSU offense will bounce back after last week. McSorley will play better. Maryland will come into Happy Valley a little tired.
Md has some very good athletes but PSU was too much for UMD at the line of scrimmage last year and could be again this year.
Md has some very good athletes but PSU was too much for UMD at the line of scrimmage last year and could be again this year.
Maryland is a much different team at home than on the road. If this game were away, I would expect a PSU loss.
LOL, at MD? Their fan base doesn't show for regular games let alone ones over Thanksgiving.
Agree, but Canada's offense gives us fits. He'll attack out DTs and LBers with a vengeance. He's the best at mixing in Jet sweeps and misdirection plays that are designed to go up the gut. And that is our weakness.
There is also the "senior day" distraction.
This is no walk over game, IMHO. This MD team beat TX and MN while they should have beaten tOSU. They are spotty, with some glaring losses (shut out vs Iowa and Indiana). Pegrim is a horrible passer but is a great runner. To your point, stop the run game and we win. But that has been the message against UM, Sparty, Wiscy and Iowa.
PSU will probably win this game by 20
Everyone complains about Rutgers but there's a few things to that (and personally why I never thought we'd cover the spread against Rutgers -- more than 13 but still) ... in the last 4 games Rutgers has played and it's not like they've played cupcakes (Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State), you know how many of those teams covered the spread? Zero. Rutgers is atrocious but will do things to keep things closer than it should be. In addition, lets be real, the staff (and the players) knew they'd win that game no matter what they did. They treated it at a scrimmage to try to correct some of the problems. Our problem on offense isn't rushing, it's passing. So we tried to work on passing and then it looks worse since in a glorified scrimmage we looked terrible airing it out. It seemed like Franklin knew he could always fall back on the running game if needed, which is how the game ended over the last 10 minutes.
Maryland isn't good. I understand they torched OSU's defense but at this point ... who hasn't? Hell everyone complains about our offense but we lit up the OSU defense. So has Purdue. So has Maryland. You get my point. Senior day at Maryland and OSU being not the usual OSU team caused that result. Maryland blew their load on Saturday and on the road is not the same team as they are at home (and that's not saying much). At home they're 4-3 this year, with a win over Texas, an OT loss to OSU, and two blowout losses to Temple and MSU. On the road, they're 1-3.with 2 20+ point losses, and a loss to Indiana.
I expect Trace to press a bit early next week in his final home game. He'll settle down by mid 2nd quarter and PSU will probably roll 38-17.
Everyone complains about Rutgers but there's a few things to that (and personally why I never thought we'd cover the spread against Rutgers -- more than 13 but still) ... in the last 4 games Rutgers has played and it's not like they've played cupcakes (Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State), you know how many of those teams covered the spread? Zero. Rutgers is atrocious but will do things to keep things closer than it should be. In addition, lets be real, the staff (and the players) knew they'd win that game no matter what they did. They treated it at a scrimmage to try to correct some of the problems. Our problem on offense isn't rushing, it's passing. So we tried to work on passing and then it looks worse since in a glorified scrimmage we looked terrible airing it out. It seemed like Franklin knew he could always fall back on the running game if needed, which is how the game ended over the last 10 minutes.
Maryland isn't good. I understand they torched OSU's defense but at this point ... who hasn't? Hell everyone complains about our offense but we lit up the OSU defense. So has Purdue. So has Maryland. You get my point. Senior day at Maryland and OSU being not the usual OSU team caused that result. Maryland blew their load on Saturday and on the road is not the same team as they are at home (and that's not saying much). At home they're 4-3 this year, with a win over Texas, an OT loss to OSU, and two blowout losses to Temple and MSU. On the road, they're 1-3.with 2 20+ point losses, and a loss to Indiana.
I expect Trace to press a bit early next week in his final home game. He'll settle down by mid 2nd quarter and PSU will probably roll 38-17.
And can we survive early with Koa getting his senior start. I'm sure Koa's a great kid but when he's in the game the defense is not good, especially against the run.
hopefully, but we scored 26 on tOSU. I don't feel like we "lit it up" on them.
^^This^^
They played us at home last year and we dropped 70 on them. I know it's a different season but I would expect UMd to perform as well (or as badly) at the Beav as they would at home.
Having home "fans" isn't the only issue giving a home field advantage. The real advantage is having the resources and routine in the run up to the game. Fans are great but unless you have a very vocal home crowd, doesn't make a whole lot of difference.
Maryland is not an easy game. In fact, a win is not a sure thing. Penn State Coaches must devise a solid and careful strategy to contain McFarland kid. Once he gets on edge, it is a touchdown. Penn State has not defended the edge against Mich., and Mich. State. If this game becomes a scoring contest, we lose. With McS. not 100%, our scoring has gone down. We must put on long drives to keep D on bench. Watch Maryland vs. OSU highlights on YouTube to see it for yourself. Tackling McF. is next to impossible, so you must push him out of bound by surrounding him. Keep safeties behind, do not over pursue.
i agree. We should win and am confident we will, but it isn't a given if we don't play our A- game, at least. will be interesting to see if the OT loss to tOSU helps or hurts the Terps
They just did, granted it probably should have been at least 27-7 but yea they can.
This offense has scored 20+ in 9 out of 11 games this year ... so ... yes.
Great, so we still win 20-14
Can I also count the ones we should have scored as well? I mean since we are playing that game?
Which by my calculations would then make it 31-14 Easy peasy.
So I'm not sure what your point is.
My point was...Nate asked "if this offense can even score 20" Hence my response.
First, the spread is 13.5, not 14. Definitely a difference.
I have PSU at 80 and Maryland at 73, so a TD difference on a neutral - add 3 pts for HFA and you get to 10. So, 13.5 may be a bit high, although I may have downgraded PSU a bit too much..
I'm guessing that UM is getting docked a point or so for a huge hangover after OSU and PSU getting a bump for McSorely senior day. My one concern is that UM on the bowl bubble with 5 wins.
I wouldn't put a ton of stock in the UM game vs OSU. UM does one thing well on offense - rushing explosiveness and that is OSUs weakness on defense. OSU also had overlook to Michigan.
PSU's defense struggled early so I diddn't give us much of a chance against OSU. But the strategy vs. OSU was to go after Haskins aggressively and it worked in the first half until they adjusted with screen passes. We also sold out against Michigan and it worked OK until Patterson burnt on option runs to the outside.
Pry likes to get the LBs up on the LOS and apply maximum pressure. That's great when it works but there aren't many defenders if the RB gets past the LOS. That's where Farmer gets burned. It's also why Taylor has so many tackles, unfortunately 15 yards downfield.
How so? I'm pretty sure PSU is something like 5-1 in games where Canada is OC.
Pitt had one good half in 2016. Indiana scored 31 in 2007, but other Canada teams scored 7, 20, 24, 21. Keep McFarland from making explosive plays and Maryland won't do much.
Similar to Rugters, I was actually pretty impressed with Pachecko kid. Pigrome is only a slightly better version of the RU QB.
So if we can keep them to 3rd and 6+ its a huge advantage for us.
But we will have to be disciplined, Canada loves motion and mis-direction. Hint, hint RR.
Canada was always coaching for lesser teams. Pitt, Wisconsin, Indiana. But fair enough. I should have said a Matt Canada coached offense will give this team fits. Canada's heaving backfield action, misdirection and attack the entire LOS with the ground game will wear down our thin DT and inexperienced LBers Saturday. HIs Pitt offense was really well done in 2016 and the offense they brought to HV in 2017 based on that offense really made our LBers dizzy.
Agree about his offense in 2016 but it also helped that he had 2 NFL talent OL, and NFL starting RB and an NFL (ok stop laughing) QB, plus a couple of good WR's.
Here's a quote from a UMD senior linebacker after Saturday's loss. This does not sound like a team with a lot left in the tank.
"“We are distraught right now at this point,” senior linebacker Tre Watson said after the game. “There is no words that can reconcile what happened to us. I’m sure you can go down the line of every guy that played in that game, they feel there’s one play that they wish they could have back. I know personally, there are several that I feel could have made the difference for the game. ... There’s no way to overcome what just happened. It’s awful. There’s no other way to put it.”
"“We are distraught right now at this point,” senior linebacker Tre Watson said after the game. “There is no words that can reconcile what happened to us. I’m sure you can go down the line of every guy that played in that game, they feel there’s one play that they wish they could have back. I know personally, there are several that I feel could have made the difference for the game. ... There’s no way to overcome what just happened. It’s awful. There’s no other way to put it.”
Agree...but I saw a darn good RB shred tOSU's defense Saturday. And we don't have those NFL ready guys on our team this year either.
