Continuing from the last couple weeks here are how I see the rankings shaping up. I actually did pretty well last week. The committee had Minnesota higher than I expected, but otherwise pretty much on the money. Let's see if we can do this again:
Tier 1:
1) LSU (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 35
Strength of Record: 1
Game Control: 2
Top 10 Record: 2-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 25.1
2) Ohio State (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 45
Strength of Record: 2
Game Control: 1
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 38.9
3) Clemson (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 67
Strength of Record: 4
Game Control: 3
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 35.2
4) Georgia (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 6
Strength of Record: 3
Game Control: 5
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 7
Average Margin of Victory: 20.5
No changes here. LSU has the better resume and Ohio State is the most complete and dominant. The win over Alabama is really making LSU's resume stand out. I think the committee SHOULD move Ohio State ahead of LSU, and that’s largely based on the eye test (which I usually think of as lazy). In this case, Ohio State has a dominant defense and dominant offense. LSU is only dominant on one side of the ball. Props to Clemson for continuing to demolish awful teams. They havent been able to afford a loss all year, so the pressure has been on. To me, when you stack up the resumes, there's a very legitimate case to be made to bump Georgia over Clemson. I don't think they'll do it, but Georgia has played a crazy schedule and lost to a team they fell asleep on. Wins over ranked Florida, Auburn, and Notre Dame. Clemson has nothing compared to that except a zero in the loss column.
Tier 2:
5) Alabama (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 54
Strength of Record: 5
Game Control: 4
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 32.4
6) Utah (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 51
Strength of Record: 11
Game Control: 9
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 23.8
7) Oklahoma (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 44
Strength of Record: 10
Game Control: 8
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 19.8
8) Minnesota (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 64
Strength of Record: 12
Game Control: 16
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.9
I want to be clear here, that I DO NOT think Alabama should be rated this high. It's just that the committee has clearly stated thats what they think and I don't think anything happened since last week that would change that. The only thing is that when you look at these four resumes, they're all against pillow soft schedules. As we find out every year and never give enough credit to it, the best way to late season top 10 is to have a weak schedule. Minnesota still controls its own destiny and they are probably one of only 5 teams that can say that.
Tier 3:
9) Florida (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 9
Strength of Record: 6
Game Control: 15
Top 10 Record: 0-2
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 18.2
10) Penn State (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 15
Strength of Record: 7
Game Control: 7
Top 10 Record: 1-2
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 20.2
11) Wisconsin (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 36
Strength of Record: 15
Game Control: 6
Top 10 Record: 1-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 21.2
12) Michigan (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 18
Strength of Record: 9
Game Control: 11
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 17.4
13) Baylor (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 52
Strength of Record: 8
Game Control: 13
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 14.4
14) Oregon (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 42
Strength of Record: 17
Game Control: 14
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 20.6
I'll be curious to see what the committee does with Baylor. At some point, they really have to consider moving them up. The other one-loss teams all have soft schedules too. Baylor deserves to be higher. But given that nothing materially changed for Baylor (they beat Texas, but that Texas team is only 6-5) nor for most of the teams in front of them (i.e. Michigan), I don't see the committee changing their minds. The biggest questions this week though are what to do with Oregon and Penn State. Oregon doesn't have any kind of resume to fall back on and they lost to a 6-5 ASU. Not a bad team, but its also not as forgivable as losing to a team like Ohio State, LSU or Georgia, or even the Auburn loss they weren't being knocked for. Penn State is trickier. The committee had Florida over Wisconsin, and I don't see that changing. My take is that the Penn State, Wisconsin, and Florida resumes are all really similar. It's possible they could slot Penn State 1, 2, or 3 in that mix. I'm splitting the difference, mainly because Wisconsin elected not to play a power five non-conference game. All three will stay ahead of Michigan who unfortunately has an issue with head to head losses against both Penn State and Wisconsin. Oregon falls to the back of the pack. Their resume isn't even in the zip code of the others. The only thing that could happen is the committee feels obligated to prop them up, but I don't see how you put them in front of even Michigan or Baylor.
Tier 1:
1) LSU (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 35
Strength of Record: 1
Game Control: 2
Top 10 Record: 2-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 25.1
2) Ohio State (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 45
Strength of Record: 2
Game Control: 1
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 38.9
3) Clemson (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 67
Strength of Record: 4
Game Control: 3
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 35.2
4) Georgia (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 6
Strength of Record: 3
Game Control: 5
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 7
Average Margin of Victory: 20.5
No changes here. LSU has the better resume and Ohio State is the most complete and dominant. The win over Alabama is really making LSU's resume stand out. I think the committee SHOULD move Ohio State ahead of LSU, and that’s largely based on the eye test (which I usually think of as lazy). In this case, Ohio State has a dominant defense and dominant offense. LSU is only dominant on one side of the ball. Props to Clemson for continuing to demolish awful teams. They havent been able to afford a loss all year, so the pressure has been on. To me, when you stack up the resumes, there's a very legitimate case to be made to bump Georgia over Clemson. I don't think they'll do it, but Georgia has played a crazy schedule and lost to a team they fell asleep on. Wins over ranked Florida, Auburn, and Notre Dame. Clemson has nothing compared to that except a zero in the loss column.
Tier 2:
5) Alabama (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 54
Strength of Record: 5
Game Control: 4
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 32.4
6) Utah (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 51
Strength of Record: 11
Game Control: 9
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 23.8
7) Oklahoma (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 44
Strength of Record: 10
Game Control: 8
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 19.8
8) Minnesota (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 64
Strength of Record: 12
Game Control: 16
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.9
I want to be clear here, that I DO NOT think Alabama should be rated this high. It's just that the committee has clearly stated thats what they think and I don't think anything happened since last week that would change that. The only thing is that when you look at these four resumes, they're all against pillow soft schedules. As we find out every year and never give enough credit to it, the best way to late season top 10 is to have a weak schedule. Minnesota still controls its own destiny and they are probably one of only 5 teams that can say that.
Tier 3:
9) Florida (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 9
Strength of Record: 6
Game Control: 15
Top 10 Record: 0-2
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 18.2
10) Penn State (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 15
Strength of Record: 7
Game Control: 7
Top 10 Record: 1-2
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 20.2
11) Wisconsin (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 36
Strength of Record: 15
Game Control: 6
Top 10 Record: 1-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 21.2
12) Michigan (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 18
Strength of Record: 9
Game Control: 11
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 17.4
13) Baylor (10-1)
Strength of Schedule: 52
Strength of Record: 8
Game Control: 13
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 14.4
14) Oregon (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 42
Strength of Record: 17
Game Control: 14
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 20.6
I'll be curious to see what the committee does with Baylor. At some point, they really have to consider moving them up. The other one-loss teams all have soft schedules too. Baylor deserves to be higher. But given that nothing materially changed for Baylor (they beat Texas, but that Texas team is only 6-5) nor for most of the teams in front of them (i.e. Michigan), I don't see the committee changing their minds. The biggest questions this week though are what to do with Oregon and Penn State. Oregon doesn't have any kind of resume to fall back on and they lost to a 6-5 ASU. Not a bad team, but its also not as forgivable as losing to a team like Ohio State, LSU or Georgia, or even the Auburn loss they weren't being knocked for. Penn State is trickier. The committee had Florida over Wisconsin, and I don't see that changing. My take is that the Penn State, Wisconsin, and Florida resumes are all really similar. It's possible they could slot Penn State 1, 2, or 3 in that mix. I'm splitting the difference, mainly because Wisconsin elected not to play a power five non-conference game. All three will stay ahead of Michigan who unfortunately has an issue with head to head losses against both Penn State and Wisconsin. Oregon falls to the back of the pack. Their resume isn't even in the zip code of the others. The only thing that could happen is the committee feels obligated to prop them up, but I don't see how you put them in front of even Michigan or Baylor.
