Greetings All,
I made a probabilistic wrestling simulation model to project the NCAA tournament (I am a PSU engineering PhD). It was backtested on the last ten years of tournament data. The user enters all the seeds for the top ten teams, then the model simulates the tournament using Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling. The user can also enter advanced data like increases to the winning percentages for each seed (vs. every other seed) and increases to bonus percentages (vs. every other seed).
The model was able to give the exact order of finish (#1 - #5) many years and only teams predicted #1 or #2 have won. In fact, the team predicted #1 has won 8 out of 10 times. In 2015 Missouri was predicted #1 and finished a "miserable" fourth; tOSU was predicted #2 and finished #1; PSU was predicted #6 and finished #6.
Of course one can add up the projected points based on seeds, or if you are a bit more sophisticated add in bonus points. But doesn't it matter if you have the #1 seed at a weight when your competitor has the #3 at the same weight? What if that #3 guy pulls an upset? What is the probability a #3 beats a #1? How about a #10 vs. a #2? What if your guy is a super stud (Nolf, Retherford, Taylor, Ruth) compared to a "normal" #1? Modeling can account for that. I see lots of creative ways you may want to use this. Should I redshirt a guy? Should I burn a redshirt? What is the impact of an injury? I think the best use may be to create odds for Vegas and create more interest in wrestling.
Here are the results for this year (probability of winning only, expected order of finish under most scenarios is PSU #1, OkSt #2, tOSU #3, VT/Iowa flip a coin #4/#5. Numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The model simulates all places so you can also get projected scores, score distribution, number of all americans, etc.
Standard data (no boosts to win or bonus):
PSU 77%
OkSt 16%
tOSU 4%
VT 2.4%
Iowa 1.2%
With bonus/win boost for studs (Most accurate, this is how much having a couple hammers matters):
PSU 97%
OkSt 2%
tOSU 1%
VT 0.2%
What if Suriano is a no go? With standard data:
PSU 54%
OkSt 27%
tOSU 11%
VT 5%
Iowa 3%
Mizz 1%
Suriano no go, with bonus boost:
PSU 87%
OkSt 8%
tOSU 4%
Iowa 1%
VT 0.6%
I saw a lot of debate that you must have X scorers, where X is 8 or 9. So I ran scenarios with a hypothetical team with two #1 studs, two other normal #1-2 guys, two #3 seeds, and four non-qualifiers. So basically a six man team. This team went against a hypothetical team of four #3 seeds, three #4 seeds, and three #5 seeds. The ultimate balanced lineup but without stars. The six man team beats the balanced team about two thirds of the time.
Hoping PSU rolls this weekend.
I made a probabilistic wrestling simulation model to project the NCAA tournament (I am a PSU engineering PhD). It was backtested on the last ten years of tournament data. The user enters all the seeds for the top ten teams, then the model simulates the tournament using Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling. The user can also enter advanced data like increases to the winning percentages for each seed (vs. every other seed) and increases to bonus percentages (vs. every other seed).
The model was able to give the exact order of finish (#1 - #5) many years and only teams predicted #1 or #2 have won. In fact, the team predicted #1 has won 8 out of 10 times. In 2015 Missouri was predicted #1 and finished a "miserable" fourth; tOSU was predicted #2 and finished #1; PSU was predicted #6 and finished #6.
Of course one can add up the projected points based on seeds, or if you are a bit more sophisticated add in bonus points. But doesn't it matter if you have the #1 seed at a weight when your competitor has the #3 at the same weight? What if that #3 guy pulls an upset? What is the probability a #3 beats a #1? How about a #10 vs. a #2? What if your guy is a super stud (Nolf, Retherford, Taylor, Ruth) compared to a "normal" #1? Modeling can account for that. I see lots of creative ways you may want to use this. Should I redshirt a guy? Should I burn a redshirt? What is the impact of an injury? I think the best use may be to create odds for Vegas and create more interest in wrestling.
Here are the results for this year (probability of winning only, expected order of finish under most scenarios is PSU #1, OkSt #2, tOSU #3, VT/Iowa flip a coin #4/#5. Numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The model simulates all places so you can also get projected scores, score distribution, number of all americans, etc.
Standard data (no boosts to win or bonus):
PSU 77%
OkSt 16%
tOSU 4%
VT 2.4%
Iowa 1.2%
With bonus/win boost for studs (Most accurate, this is how much having a couple hammers matters):
PSU 97%
OkSt 2%
tOSU 1%
VT 0.2%
What if Suriano is a no go? With standard data:
PSU 54%
OkSt 27%
tOSU 11%
VT 5%
Iowa 3%
Mizz 1%
Suriano no go, with bonus boost:
PSU 87%
OkSt 8%
tOSU 4%
Iowa 1%
VT 0.6%
I saw a lot of debate that you must have X scorers, where X is 8 or 9. So I ran scenarios with a hypothetical team with two #1 studs, two other normal #1-2 guys, two #3 seeds, and four non-qualifiers. So basically a six man team. This team went against a hypothetical team of four #3 seeds, three #4 seeds, and three #5 seeds. The ultimate balanced lineup but without stars. The six man team beats the balanced team about two thirds of the time.
Hoping PSU rolls this weekend.