PIAA Predictions certain to be incorrect

[El-Jefe]

AAA predictions below, will do AA in separate post.

Note, finalist predictions take brackets into account, not necessarily who I think the best 2 wrestlers are. I'm not picking 3rd/4th (or beyond) in every weight; where I do, it's a statement of who's left -- translated: I'm not taking the time to figure out the consolation brackets.

AAA:

106:
1 Matt Parker, Pennridge SO, SE1, 22-1
2 Cole Manley, Altoona SO, NW1, 32-3

113:
1 Devin Brown, Franklin Regional SR, SW1, 40-2 (returning 2x state champ, West Virginia commit)
2 Gage Curry, North Hills JR, SW2, 36-1
3 Dan Moran, Northampton SO, NE2, 31-5 (returning finalist)
4 Austin DeSanto, Exeter SO, SC1, 46-1

Brown gets DeSanto in the quarters, then Moran in the semis. Curry gets one good opponent in KJ Fenstermacher in the semis, but otherwise shouldn't be challenged.

120-Spencer Lee.
2 Sammy Sasso, Nazareth FR, NE1, 37-6
3 Derek Gulotta, OJ Roberts SR, SE1, 33-8 (Lock Haven commit)
4 Ryan Hayes, Spring Ford SR, SE2, 40-4 (Bloomsburg commit)
5 Jake Riegel, Beca SO, NE3, 36-5 (returning state champ)
6 Tyshawn White, Central Dauphin JR, SC1, 44-2

Riegel's draw ... woof, and it's his fault for losing in the regional quarters. Pigtail and then right to Spencer Lee in Round 1. Had he won NE Regionals, he probably would reach the finals (or no worse than the semis vs. Gulotta).

126:
1 Ethan McCoy, Latrobe JR, SW1, 23-4
2 Luke Karam, Beca JR, NE1, 34-2 (returning state champ, 2x finalist, Bucknell commit)
3 Zach Trampe, Council Rock South SO, 42-4

McCoy vs. Trampe in the quarters, winner should reach the finals. Should be a great final with Karam.

132:
1 Luke Pletcher, Latrobe JR, SW2, 36-1 (2x state champ)
2 AC Headlee, Waynesburg SR, SW1, 41-1 (North Carolina commit)
3 Evan Fidelibus, Easton JR, NE1, 36-1
4 DJ Fehlman, Warren SR, NW1, 32-1 (Lock Haven commit)
5 Brock Port, Bellefonte SO, NW2, 30-2

138:
1 Sam Krivus, Hempfield SR, SW1, 39-0 (returning state champ, Virginia commit)
2 Cameron Coy, Penn Trafford SO, SW2, 31-5 (returning state champ)
3 Stephen Maloney, Beca JR, NE1, 34-5
4 Zach Elvin, Central Dauphin SR, SC1, 45-1 (Navy commit)
5 Dom Giannangeli, Franklin Regional SR, SW3, 27-9 (uncommitted)
6 Trent Hidlay, Mifflin County FR, NW1, 33-8

Picking Maloney for 3rd because he has the best championship round draw. 3-6 is a crapshoot.

145:
1 Mike Kemerer, Franklin Regional SR, SW1, 37-0 (3x returning finalist, Iowa commit)
2 Pat Duggan, Cumberland Valley SR, SC1, 43-1 (returning finalist, West Virginia commit)
3 Hayden Hidlay, Mifflin County JR, NW1, 38-1
4 Jarod Verkleeren, Belle Vernon SO, SW2, 42-5
5 Jimmy Saylor, Easton JR, NE1, 35-1
6 Riley Barth, Central Bucks West SR, SE1, 34-0 (uncommitted)

WOW. Some really good wrestler(s) not gonna medal.

152:
1 Vincenzo Joseph, Pittsburgh Central Catholic SR, SW1, 27-1 (returning champ, Penn State commit)
2 Josh Maruca, Franklin Regional SR, SW2, 41-5 (Arizona State commit)
3 Kaleb Young, Punxsutawney JR, NW1, 16-0 (Iowa commit)
4 Mike Labriola, Beca SO, NE2, 34-4

Labriola beat Maruca once this year and gets him again in the semis.

160:
1 Josh Shields, Franklin Regional SR, SW1, 37-0 (returning finalist, Arizona State commit)
2 Cody Cordes, Wyoming Valley West SR, NE1, 34-3 (Lock Haven commit)
3 Adam Soldridge, Beca JR, NE2, 30-8

Shields vs. Soldridge in the quarters.

170:
1 DJ Hollingshead, Altoona SR, NW1, 35-2 (Bucknell commit)
2 Jared Siegrist, Manheim Central JR, SC1, 35-1
3 TeShan Campbell, Penn Hills SR, SW1, 32-0 (uncommitted)
4 Matt Mirth, Southern Lehigh SR, NE1, 29-0 (uncommitted)
5 Austin Bell, Belle Vernon JR, SW2, 39-4

Weak but very balanced weight. Hollingshead bumped up from 160 just before districts, and the decision should pay off.

182:
1 Kellan Stout, Mt. Lebanon SR, SW1, 34-0 (Penn State commit)
2 John Jakobsen, Stroudsburg JR, NE1, 34-1 (Lehigh commit)
3 Josh Colello, Cedar Cliff JR, SC1, 41-4

Yay, PIAA didn't screw this one up! This should be a real battle. Jakobsen's only loss is in OT to Chris Dietrich.

195:
1 Jan Johnson, Gov. Mifflin SR, SC3, 45-1 (defending state champ, Penn State football commit)
2 Drew Phipps, Norwin JR, SW1, 37-1
3 Tommy Rayhart, Big Spring SR, SC1, 31-3 (uncommitted)
4 Francis Duggan, Cumberland Valley FR, SC2, 38-5

220:
1 Jordan Wood, Boyertown JR, SE1, 16-0 (2x finalist, Lehigh commit)
2 Tyler Worthing, Kiski JR, SW1, 17-0

285:
1 Andrew Dunn, Beca SR, NE1, 34-0 (Virginia Tech commit)
2 Bo Spiller, Solanco SR, SC1, 37-0 (Bloomsburg commit)
3 Ryan Monk, Dallas SR, NE2, 35-4 (Penn State football commit)
4 Josh Fye, Bald Eagle Area JR, NW1, 30-1

This one's very tough to call, really could go either way. Both Dunn and Spiller are undefeated against very difficult competition. Glad the PIAA didn't screw up this bracket either. Spiller does have a tougher semi matchup vs. the Monk/Fye quarters winner. Dunn's half of the bracket should be a cakewalk.

OW: Spencer Lee.

brackets

 

[royboy]

Love this event; great work El-Jefe

seems like a never ending stream of talent; interesting how WPIAL (District 7) has become so prominent, for now ahead of D-3, D-11, etc.

 

[El-Jefe]

PIAA AA Predictions certain to be incorrect

106:
1 Gavin Teasdale, Jefferson Morgan FR, SW1, 42-0
2 Kevan Gentile, Jim Thorpe JR, SE1, 37-0
3 Aaron Burkett, Chestnut Ridge JR, SW2, 38-5
4 Alan Diltz, Benton JR, NE1, 38-5
5 Jaret Lane, Southern Columbia FR, NE2, 36-4

113:
1 Joe Lobeck, Lancaster Catholic JR, SE1, 38-2
2 Max Murin, Central Cambria SO, SW1, 33-1
3 Cameron Newman, Line Mountain SR, NE1, 38-2 (uncommitted)

120:
1 Brian Courtney, Athens SO, NE1, 34-0
2 John Pipa, Bishop McDevitt SO, SC1, 23-2
3 Collin Glorioso, Huntingdon JR, SW1, 39-2
4 Taylor Ortz, Brookville JR, NW1, 37-2
5 Andrew Wert, Trinity FR, SE2, 34-4

126:
1 Triston Law, Forest Hills SR, SW1, 38-1 (Penn State commit)
2 Jonathan Gabriel, Bedford JR, SW2, 25-3
3 Charles Johnson, Wyoming Area JR, NE1, 34-0
4 Lewis Williams, Central Columbia SR, NE2, 33-3 (uncommitted)

Law is the favorite after a solid win over Gabriel at regionals. Johnson is capable of winning.

132:
1 Korbin Myers, Boiling Springs SR, SE1, 37-1 (returning state champ, 3x finalist, Edinboro commit)
2 Mickey Philllippi, Derry JR, SW1, 39-3 (returning state champ)
3 Josh Giorgio, Schuylkill Valley SR, SE2, 37-5 (returning finalist, Air Force commit)
4 Zack LeBarron, Warrior Run JR, NE1, 36-0

LOADED. Myers breezes to the finals. Giorgio vs. LeBarron in the quarters, winner gets Phillippi in the semis.

138:
1 Kyle Shoop, Boiling Springs SR, SE1, 40-1 (returning finalist, Lock Haven commit)
2 Mike Carr, South Fayette JR, SW1, 40-0
3 Tyler Vath, Saegertown SR, NW1, 40-6 (uncommitted)
4 Collin Edsell, Wyalusing JR, NE1, 41-5

145:
1 Kent Lane, Southern Columbia SR, NE1, 40-1 (returning finalist, Lehigh commit)
2 James Duffy, Smethport JR, NW1, 33-1
3 Nate Newberry, Biglerville JR, SE1, 35-2

152:
1 Billy Barnes, Southern Columbia SR, NE1, 34-1 (returning finalist, Bloomsburg commit)
2 Jake Wentzel, South Park JR, SW1, 36-1
3 Mike Comunale, Pius X SR, SE1, 31-0 (Drexel commit)
4 Jacob Oliver, Huntingdon SO, SW2, 38-2

Barnes could bonus all the way to the finals.

160:
1 Cole Walter, Mifflinburg SR, NE1, 37-1 (Lehigh commit)
2 John Vaughn, Boiling Springs SR, SE1, 24-2 (Cleveland State commit)
3 Jared Walker, South Fayette SR, SW2, 35-4 (returning finalist, Kent State commit)
4 Andrew Doak, Blairsville SR, SW3, 38-1 (American commit)

Walter has yet to go the distance this postseason. He will beat Doak in the quarters, Walker in the semis, and then Vaughn in the finals. Ignore the credentials, he will make this look easier than it should.

170:
1 Nick Stephani, Troy SR, NE1, 37-0 (uncommitted)
2 Greg Bulsak, South Park JR, SW1, 30-3
3 Briton Shelton, Bermudian Springs SR, SE1, 35-8 (uncommitted)
4 Gavin Hoffman, Montoursville FR, NE2, 38-3
5 Jason Lynch, Saucon Valley SR, SE3, 35-3 (uncommitted)

Winner of the Shelton-Stephani semi takes the title.

182:
1 Corey Hazel, Penns Valley SR, SW1, 35-1 (Lock Haven commit)
2 Garrett Hoffman, Montoursville JR, NE1, 42-0
3 Colton Dull, Bermudian Springs SR, SE1, 35-1 (Millersville commit)
4 Dakota Geer, Franklin JR, NW1, 33-1
5 Connor Frey, Lehighton JR, SE2, 31-4

Very balanced weight. Top 4 nearly interchangeable.

195:
1 Dylan Reynolds, Saegertown SR, NW1, 46-0 (Clarion commit)
2 Scott Thompson, Blairsville SR, SW1, 37-0 (uncommitted)
3 Alek Hummel, North Schuylkill SR, SE1, 36-1 (uncommitted)
4 Zac Faust, WB GAR SR, NE1, 35-3 (uncommitted)
5 Logan Womelsdorf, Benton SR, NE2, 27-1 (uncommitted)

Very balanced weight. Hummel vs. Thompson should be a semi, instead Hummel gets Reynolds.

220:
1 Buzzy Maines, West Branch SR, SW1, 38-0 (returning finalist, uncommittted)
2 Jake Robb, Kittanning JR, SW2, 37-4
3 Dylan Otis, Wyalusing JR, NE1, 46-1 (Army commit)
4 Sam McCollum, Bermudian Springs SR, SE1, 39-0 (uncommitted)
5 Ben Cerney, Montoursville JR, NE2, 35-7

Maines-Otis semi will be the match of the weight.

285:
1 Allan Beattie, Burrell SR, SW1, 44-1 (uncommitted)
2 (Close your eyes, throw a dart at the bracket)
3 Saul Wilkins, WB GAR SR, NE1, 36-4 (uncommitted)

Beattie vs. Wilkins should be the final, instead is a semi. The other half is wide open.

 

[El-Jefe]

Re: PIAA AA Predictions certain to be incorrect

Almost forgot:

AA OW: Korbin Myers.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

outstanding job, El-Jefe ...


I suspect even Willie would be impressed. I certainly was.

Very nice job.

Tom

 

[jschrantz]

wow, great work***

Nfm

This post was edited on 3/1 8:05 PM by jschrantz

 

[El-Jefe]

Taking this one step further ... will now rank each weight by my confidence in the pick, highest to lowest.

AAA:
- 120 Lee
- 220 Wood
- 152 Cenzo
- 160 Shields
- 106 Parker
- 113 Brown -- would rate higher, except it's a tougher weight than 106, and he occasionally lets opponents hang around.
- 195 Johnson -- his regionals loss was to a very familiar opponent who I don't think reaches the finals.
- 132 Pletcher -- yes, he just lost to Headlee. I think he accepts the challenge to score more.
- 170 Hollingshead -- no way if he were still at 160 ... did I mention 170 is weak?
- 182 Stout -- very difficult finals opponent in Jakobsen, but he's the only challenge.
- 138 Krivus -- see 182, with Coy.
- 145 Kemerer -- brutal weight, but he's the guy most equipped to win it.
- 126 McCoy -- over Karam is probably an upset pick.
- 285 Dunn -- I have zero confidence in this pick. Ask me 10 times and I'll make 11 different picks, each one Dunn or Spiller.

AA:
- 285 Beattie -- Wilkins might make him break a sweat, but no real competition.
- 145 Lane -- very tough wrestler, not the toughest weight.
- 160 Walter -- decent weight, but he's dominant.
- 106 Teasdale
- 138 Shoop
- 195 Reynolds
- 220 Maines -- tough weight, he seems tougher still.
- 120 Courtney
- 152 Barnes -- due to likely finals opponent Wentzel
- 132 Myers -- due to possible finals match vs. slowmeister Phillippi
- 113 Lobeck

- 126 Law
- 182 Hazel -- any of the top 4 guys could win
- 170 Stephani -- first trip to Hershey, but wrestling very well and opponents pretty even

 

[LHavenlion]

Re: PIAA AA Predictions certain to be incorrect

Looks like LHU has a nice recruiting class coming in.

 

[mrh1645]

"120-Spencer Lee.
2 Sammy Sasso, Nazareth FR, NE1, 37-6
3 Derek Gulotta, OJ Roberts SR, SE1, 33-8 (Lock Haven commit)
4 Ryan Hayes, Spring Ford SR, SE2, 40-4 (Bloomsburg commit)
5 Jake Riegel, Beca SO, NE3, 36-5 (returning state champ)
6 Tyshawn White, Central Dauphin JR, SC1, 44-2

Riegel's draw ... woof, and it's his fault for losing in the regional quarters. Pigtail and then right to Spencer Lee in Round 1. Had he won NE Regionals, he probably would reach the finals (or no worse than the semis vs. Gulotta)."

El-Jefe, thanks for the predictions. Fun to read. I am curious about your opinion of White. He beat Riegel 5-3 at Beast this year and beat both Hayes (6-4) and Gulotta (4-3) at state last year. I was thinking that he would be considered a favorite out of the top half, but I'm basing that on the above results and Willie mentioning that White looked very good at S32. He does seem to have a lot of close matches, including SV over Kulp at regionals, so predicting him at 6th is not unreasonable. Is Sasso a bad matchup for him in likely QF?

 

[El-Jefe]

Hey, there's a reason I called these sure to be wrong!

You're right, White could reach the finals. Other than Lee, it's a balanced weight. I do think Sasso is better and tested -- his losses came from taking on serious challenges, often at higher weights.

Gulotta and Hayes are both wrestling well; Gulotta took some early-season bumps but is peaking. Riegel is anyone's guess. We know he won't get past Lee in Round 1, but after that, anything is possible. Last year he was regional 5th and then state champ -- nobody saw that coming.

Also -- and I could be all wet about this: sometimes the CD guys get figured out the 2nd time around.

One thing in White's favor: everyone else has 4 days to recover from regionals; White got an extra week, thanks to SC Regionals being earlier (why the PIAA allows this to continue is beyond me). I don't think it'll matter much in the first match, but may as the tournament goes on.

 

[androcles]

...just FYI...

...AAA 106# Matt Parker is also a Lehigh "commit"...

...his older brother is now wrestling for Lehigh...and doing fairly well...

...Lehigh is "mining" Pennsylvania very well...

...i.e. AAA 106-Parker,182-Jacobsen, 220-Wood...
AA 145-Lane, 160-Walter ...both favored to win...
This post was edited on 3/2 11:50 AM by androcles