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Penn State favored by 8 over Terps

PSUoh90 said:
What I believe or don't is entirely irrelevant to the point spread. I expected the line to open around even. I asked another poster in a different thread who often comments on these things and he expected PSU to be a 2-3 point favorite. You will see this line dip from 8, which tells us that the line is too high. If PSU wins by 50, which I hope they do, the 8-point line will have still been too high.
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Close, but I had the game at -4, without handicapping. I actually made some adjustments to my HFA numbers and I'm now closer to -5 for PSU.
I think this line was -8 for about a minute before it was bet down to -7. I saw it at -6 on bookmaker last night, but they now have it as -7(-105).
 
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It is tough to break down two teams after only 2 FBS games each (we are going to throw out the Howard and Idaho games, even though Idaho is a much better FCS team than Howard is).

Maryland put up an impressive score against Syracuse but let’s dive a little deeper into that.

Couple of things at the macro scale:

The SU QB (DeVito) is not great (he has a QBR of 50.6 for the season and has thrown 7 TD to 4 INTs). He passed for 330 yards and 3 TDs against Maryland. I would expect the PSU passing game to have a big day.

Maryland had two rushes of over 50 yards. Obviously those plays count, but they both occurred in the second half (the first with UMD up by 30 points and the second with 4 minutes to play…essentially garbage time runs/scores with a tired defense who maybe isn’t giving 100%). This pads their rushing stats by almost 100 yards.

Syracuse does not have a great defense. They gave up 33 points last week to Western Michigan.

In other words, people are giving UMD a lot of credit for the Syracuse game, and I think that is a bit of a paper tiger.

I think PSU wins by 3 scores.
 
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Grant Green said:
Close, but I had the game at -4, without handicapping. I actually made some adjustments to my HFA numbers and I'm now closer to -5 for PSU.
I think this line was -8 for about a minute before it was bet down to -7. I saw it at -6 on bookmaker last night, but they now have it as -7(-105).
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Ah. Sorry. Didn't mean to misquote. Maryland, Iowa, and Minnesota are all tricky road games. Iowa now a confirmed night game. :confused:

Sadly, we're always the main event on other team's home schedules and have to play in more hostile environments. I say this jokingly, but it's also kind of true. :D
 
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LionJim said:
Lol, Maryland lost to Temple, which lost to Buffalo, who we creamed. We beat Pitt, who beat UCF. Honestly, this board kills me sometimes.
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Transitive Property:
If A>B and B>C, then A>C.
Here’s the problem though:
The transitive property doesn’t always seem to hold true in football.
 
aferrelli said:
Transitive Property:
If A>B and B>C, then A>C.
Here’s the problem though:
The transitive property doesn’t always seem to hold true in football.
Click to expand...
I’m a mathematician, so I know the transitive property. I know the transitive property is worthless in football, but we’re not talking about winning football games here, we’re talking about setting betting lines. The original post I responded to expressed surprise that the opening lines had PSU favored. Given what has transpired, there was zero chance that PSU wouldn’t have been favored. If Maryland had beaten Temple and UCF had beaten Pitt, then maybe, but I doubt that.
 
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I don't know how hostile. In the past that stadium has been about 50% PSU fans. PSU has been blowing them out and the Maryland fans don't like to watch that. Maryland had high hopes until Temple brought them back to earth.

Nitwit said:
Clifford will be in a night game in a hostile environment for the first time. This could be a tough situation for him. I’m still not sold on our offensive line against the blitz or 8 in the box. The defense may have to win this game, and if so it could be close.
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LionJim said:
Lol, Maryland lost to Temple, which lost to Buffalo, who we creamed. We beat Pitt, who beat UCF. Honestly, this board kills me sometimes.
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Thats a horrible way to think of why one would beat a team and even worse way to bet.
 
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LionJim said:
I agree. But as far as setting the betting line is concerned, this is a factor. There was zero chance PSU would not be favored.
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I agree. There was no chance that PSU would not be favored. Probably has more to do with UM being downgraded in pro power ratings than anything else, but I could see that transitive property may have a slight affect on the public betting side. Perhaps that is why it came out even higher than (I think) it should have.
 
The two games I saw of Maryland were Syracuse and Temple. A Tale of Four Different Teams. Two opponents and Two Different Josh Jacksons.

Jackson seems to perform better in tempo, and goes hot and cold. An interesting point: apparently Jackson missed some of summer camp so some inconsistency is expected. For that reason and for Locksley’s install, I’d worry that it hasn’t really clicked yet for Jackson but could on Fri.

Against Syracuse, MD stayed on the field with its running game. I couldn't stress enough how bad Syracuse's defense was, particularly the LBs. It was very bad.

Temple just completely slowed MD down, but tried many times to give the game to away.

Locks keeps things simple for Jackson. This is an offense that relies heavily on its good RBs and short quick throws that Jackson is quite noticeably telegraphing. There are almost no progressions on pass plays in weeks 2 and 3. It's snap and throw, and even if Jackson takes some time in the pocket, he's still locked on one option. (Not saying that won't change with the bye-week etc.).

Locksley's offense is very similar to PSU's. Their RBs are good. Syracuse did not want to tackle them. Their line suffered without their LG, who is apparently out on Friday as well.

Jackson seems to get worse with the more time he has in the pocket, and I think a large part of this is because he does not look to run when he should. Throws into double coverage and will take sacks.

MD will run press-man coverage. PSU has to throw the ball deep down the field and return to it even if it doesn't work the first or second or third time. If MD does this to PSU, and PSU can’t capitalize, well then...you know.

If Jackson can get hot on dinks and dunks, and if Locksley can use Jackson in his running game, the game could be closer. For whatever reason Jackson has not shown any dual threat. If they don’t show anything new against PSU and don’t run the QB, I’d say PSU wins by 14+ with PSU secondary having 2 INTs.

PSU's secondary has a real opportunity in this game.
 
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Nitwit said:
i dunno. That seems a little low to me but I’m really not sure what kind of competition Maryland will be. Hoping their defense is porous and we can mount a good running game.
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/ / / / / /

Mount a running game, you need a viable OLine to do that.
 
Grant Green said:
Hard to argue with most of that. They aren't really that up on UMD either.
Stay away for me. I think you bet UMD early, right?
You can consider a 2nd half PSU bet (or in game) and try to middle.
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Yep. Got Maryland at 7.5 (-110). I’m curious to see where it closes. I think Maryland is undoubtably the right side, but could see it going either way and sitting out is probably better. That being said, Go State.....and go Birds (still don’t know how I feel about that one).
 
LionJim said:
I’m a mathematician, so I know the transitive property. I know the transitive property is worthless in football, but we’re not talking about winning football games here, we’re talking about setting betting lines. The original post I responded to expressed surprise that the opening lines had PSU favored. Given what has transpired, there was zero chance that PSU wouldn’t have been favored. If Maryland had beaten Temple and UCF had beaten Pitt, then maybe, but I doubt that.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I’m an ex mathematics teacher myself. I’m always looking for ways to express my knowledge; no disrespect to you and the post.
 
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