odds we win out this year?

[blion72]

given our current injury situation, and impact on the play - what are the odds we win all 3 games left on the schedule, which at least gives chance of a good bowl game???

my guess is we are 65% probability of winning all 3 games. 95% Rutgers, 90% Nebraska and 80% Maryland.

 

[PSUoh90]

given our current injury situation, and impact on the play - what are the odds we win all 3 games left on the schedule, which at least gives chance of a good bowl game???

my guess is we are 65% probability of winning all 3 games. 95% Rutgers, 90% Nebraska and 80% Maryland.

Much higher, realistically. In short, if we lose any of these next 3, YUGE disappointment.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/213/penn-state-nittany-lions

 

[RLCookie]

given our current injury situation, and impact on the play - what are the odds we win all 3 games left on the schedule, which at least gives chance of a good bowl game???

my guess is we are 65% probability of winning all 3 games. 95% Rutgers, 90% Nebraska and 80% Maryland.

95%, 90%, 80% -------> 65% is that Pitt math?

 

[sluggo72]

95%, 90%, 80% -------> 65% is that Pitt math?

multiply it out, it is pretty darn close!

 

[blion72]

95%, 90%, 80% -------> 65% is that Pitt math?

no the odds of 3 independent events = the product of the individual events.

 

[bdgan]

given our current injury situation, and impact on the play - what are the odds we win all 3 games left on the schedule, which at least gives chance of a good bowl game???

my guess is we are 65% probability of winning all 3 games. 95% Rutgers, 90% Nebraska and 80% Maryland.

Sounds about right. Does anybody know the situation with Bates & Buchholz?

I think winning out gets us back to the top 10 which would be pretty good.

• MSU would drop below us with another loss (OSU?).
• OSU would drop below us if they lose to UM or Wisconsin.
• Auburn would drop below us with a loss to Alabama on Saturday
• TCU would fall behind us with a loss to Oklahoma

Those move us to 12th and I suspect another team or two ahead of us will fall.

 

[lein]

95%, 90%, 80% -------> 65% is that Pitt math?

but isn't it like a coin flip? Each is independent of the other?

 

[ILLINOISLION]

For crying out loud, it’s not like we’re the only team in Div I to have a couple of injuries!

Maryland’s down to their fourth string QB. If we don’t win that game, well, it will be our own fault.

We’ve beaten ourselves two times this year.....that’s enough!

 

[BrucePa]

Anything else than winning out would be a MASSIVE disappointment. This team had Ohio State beaten on the road, and basically laid down in the 4th quarter. This team could have and should have beaten Michigan State on the road, and again couldn't close it out. A team that was #2 in the nation, with the best running back in a generation, coughed up a hairball and is now looking at a 10-2 season with a New Years Day bowl against maybe a top 10 team.

 

[Mixolydian]

but isn't it like a coin flip? Each is independent of the other?

Yes it’s exactly like a coin flip...odds of rolling 3 heads in a row is 12.5% (0.5x0.5x0.5).

 

[ILLINOISLION]

Yes it’s exactly like a coin flip...odds of rolling 3 heads in a row is 12.5% (0.5x0.5x0.5).

DAMN - I always thought rolling 3 tails in a row was 12.5%!