Mid Season thoughts

[Lyco1990]

Ok it is not quite midseason but the meat of the season is upon us. With a potential Lee’s at 125 and 141 and the Rasheed redux I thought I would take a peek at fOSU schedule and where I see them ending at nationals. Not wrestling Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Illinois.

125 Tomasello #1. “Missing” the Suriano match should and will hurt. With this weight class packed with studs and limited top 20 competition any loss before nationals will be devastating to his seeding. Not that any seed is safe after the first round at this weight. I just don’t see Friday afternoon in Cleveland being kind. Lucky to place in top 4.

133. Pfletcher #3. Has five matches with top 20 remaining including McKee and Micic. If he loses just one match before nationals he will fall out of top four and with this being another loaded weight could easily fall out of top eight. Several close matches this year. 5-8

141. McKenna#6 will make the Big 10 finals with the only wrestlers that I see battling with him being the winner of Red and Lee. Favorable seed and wow another quarterfinal where all eight can possibly win 141. 1-4

149. Hayes #5 Will have two losses going to bigs Zain and Sorenson. If he beats Snorenson he can place really high a loss anywhere along the line to a lower ranked guy and he may be meeting Zpain in the quarters ouch. Rd of 12

157. Jordan#6. He wrestles #1, #2, #3 and#5 if he win anyone of these he may gain the confidence to make Saturday night, if he loses them all he may be fighting for a spot on the podium. 5-8

165- Campbell #11. Has Marinelli and Lewis this weekend. He beats them both he may be good enough to score 2. Rd 16

174- See 2017 NCAA. 1-3

184- See NCAAs 2016 and 2017 1-4

197- Top tier Moore. Anything other than #1will surprise me at this point.

285- Kyle Snyder, Many Times National, 2x World, and Olympic Champion.

 

[nitlion6]

I think no matter what happens through the remaining regular season Micah Jordan will be confident enough on Saturday night to find his seat next to his brother and watch the finals with the rest of us.

 

[Lyco1990]

I tried to put down the blue and white glasses best I could but I do agree.

 

[nitlion6]

Just my take. Ohio State will have an outstanding post-season. Highly likely regardless how well the guys do at Big10s Ohio State may win the Big10 again.

NCAAs are different. They are going to get theirs, and theirs is going to be multiple AAs, multiple finalists and maybe more than just Snyder as a champ. I just do not see the Bucknuts acing every routine and sticking every landing. In what should be a close and exciting team chase, the Bucknuts will stumble here and there and maybe get 8 AAs. I expect 7.

 

[diggerpup]

I tried to put down the blue and white glasses best I could but I do agree.

I think no matter what happens through the remaining regular season Micah Jordan will be confident enough on Saturday night to find his seat next to his brother and watch the finals with the rest of us.

If Micah draws the wrong guy, he’ll be sitting early. Same with Hayes.

Big Tens will be F**.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

OSU will do very well at NCAA's but bonus points will make the difference. I just don't see their lineup hanging with ours from a bonus points perspective. If Nick Lee and Rasheed end up manning 141 and 197 I expect we will see 6+ additional bonus points over our current lineup and that could be a difference maker.

 

[LemonPie]

Nick Lee and Rasheed/Cassar have a good shot at making the Finals at Big Tens. 141 and 197 relatively weak for Big Ten standards. Gives PSU a shot.

 

[Lion-around]

Nick Lee and Rasheed/Cassar have a good shot at making the Finals at Big Tens. 141 and 197 relatively weak for Big Ten standards. Gives PSU a shot.

My God LP, that has to be the most positive post I've seen you write. Are you off your meds? If you are, stay off of them!

 

[NoVa Lion]

My God LP, that has to be the most positive post I've seen you write. Are you off your meds? If you are, stay off of them!

True that.

However, LP is right about BIGs. Based on Intermat rankings for BIG seedings if you insert Lee @ #7 in place of Albers who he beat in the Scuffle semis he would be the #2 seed. If you insert Rasheed at #9 or use Cassar who is ranked #9 then they would be the #3 seed at BIGs so both making the finals is not a stretch at all.

 

[dunkej01]

If its cutch/rasheed vs wilke in the semis...I love our chances
if its NN vs Stoll in the semis....I like our chances
If its NLee vs Thorn/Redd/Mckenna in the semis.... I think we have a shot

Its not unreasonable that Psu could put 8 into the semis and see them all through to the finals in the big.

Spencer vs Nato semi and Downy vs MyMar semi and McKenna vs Lee/Redd/Thorn .....are huge for the team race

 

[LemonPie]

Btw, Red just took a loss to Mike Carr, so looking even better for Nick to get a 2/3. Nebraska not on the schedule.

 

[GOLDBANGER]

Ok it is not quite midseason but the meat of the season is upon us. With a potential Lee’s at 125 and 141 and the Rasheed redux I thought I would take a peek at fOSU schedule and where I see them ending at nationals. Not wrestling Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Illinois.

125 Tomasello #1. “Missing” the Suriano match should and will hurt. With this weight class packed with studs and limited top 20 competition any loss before nationals will be devastating to his seeding. Not that any seed is safe after the first round at this weight. I just don’t see Friday afternoon in Cleveland being kind. Lucky to place in top 4.

133. Pfletcher #3. Has five matches with top 20 remaining including McKee and Micic. If he loses just one match before nationals he will fall out of top four and with this being another loaded weight could easily fall out of top eight. Several close matches this year. 5-8

141. McKenna#6 will make the Big 10 finals with the only wrestlers that I see battling with him being the winner of Red and Lee. Favorable seed and wow another quarterfinal where all eight can possibly win 141. 1-4

149. Hayes #5 Will have two losses going to bigs Zain and Sorenson. If he beats Snorenson he can place really high a loss anywhere along the line to a lower ranked guy and he may be meeting Zpain in the quarters ouch. Rd of 12

157. Jordan#6. He wrestles #1, #2, #3 and#5 if he win anyone of these he may gain the confidence to make Saturday night, if he loses them all he may be fighting for a spot on the podium. 5-8

165- Campbell #11. Has Marinelli and Lewis this weekend. He beats them both he may be good enough to score 2. Rd 16

174- See 2017 NCAA. 1-3

184- See NCAAs 2016 and 2017 1-4

197- Top tier Moore. Anything other than #1will surprise me at this point.

285- Kyle Snyder, Many Times National, 2x World, and Olympic Champion.

Still having nightmare flashbacks of Rasheed gassing with big leads. Guess we will see!!

 

[tomsc]

Still having nightmare flashbacks of Rasheed gassing with big leads. Guess we will see!!

Yes, but almost all of those were when pulling a huge amount of weight to make 165. I don't think Rasheed will have that problem at 197.

 

[GOLDBANGER]

Yes, but almost all of those were when pulling a huge amount of weight to make 165. I don't think Rasheed will have that problem at 197.

Agreed, should have been more concise, I'm still apprehensive as I have not had the chance to see him in person this year yet. Looking forward to it though!!

 

[NoVa Lion]

Agreed, should have been more concise, I'm still apprehensive as I have not had the chance to see him in person this year yet. Looking forward to it though!!

Rasheed looked pretty good in the first two rounds of the Scuffle when he went the full 7 minutes and majored both opponents including #18 Seely from UNCO in the R16. I don't think his gas tank at 197 is an issue at all. In fact, it is probably more of an issue for his opponents who are almost certainly cutting more weight than he is. I hope we wrestle him against UM next Friday to see how he fares against #10 Beazley.

 

[El-Jefe]

Cael with Lee and Shak waiting in the wings be like

 

[tomsc]

Agreed, should have been more concise, I'm still apprehensive as I have not had the chance to see him in person this year yet. Looking forward to it though!!

Yes, and with his 1st period falls we didn't get a good look at his gas tank. Still, I'm optimistic. Seems like a great kid (as are all our guys)!
Note: As NoVa said, he did have 2 full bout MD's.

 

[slushhead]

Although it has been pointed out elsewhere that perhaps the easiest/most likely path for PSU to finish ahead of tOSU is for Tomasello to struggle, I just like/respect that guy too much to pull for him to fall short of his goal.

Not having any fan-attachment to other cast members, I will be looking for the following alternative:
(1) Pletcher, McKenna, and MiJo to finish low AA (6th-8th) at best, with one or possibly two of them not making AA (that might require me to reverse course and become a Berger fan for a few days, though, which I'm not sure I can do);
(2) Campbell missing AA; and
(3) Hayes finishing lower than 4th.

That would have me looking at the following hypothetical for tOSU:
• 3 champs (NaTo, Moore, Snyder)
• 2 runners-up/3rds (BoJo, MyMar)
• 1 mid-AA (Hayes)
• 2 low AAs (Pletcher*, MiJo*)
• 2 R12s (McKenna*, Campbell)

For PSU to beat that, let's say the following happens for us:
• 3 champs (Retherford, Nolf, Nickal)
• 2 runners-up/3rds (Joseph, Hall)
• 1 mid-AA (Nevills)
• 2 low AAs (Lee, Rasheed/Cassar)
• 1 additional point-scorer (Keener)

Those hypotheticals would make it pretty tight, but PSU would be favored to overcome the slight discrepancy with an outperformance in bonus points.

Those hypotheticals stated, I am skeptical NaTo can pull off champ (if he does, then just WOW), and my gut tells me PSU will have 4 champs.

Health down the road will be huge for both teams.


* These 3 guys treated as interchangeable in this 2-hr analysis. I have no strong opinion which of them gets low AA vs. R12.


EDIT: One other thing to add to my wish list -- Zeke Moisey moving up to 133 and presenting an additional challenge for Pletcher to navigate in that bracket. I don't know if anyone here has watched Moisey wrestle this season, but I strongly suspect the cut to 125 is killing him. Caught his match vs. VaTech, and it looked like he has 0% body fat (his legs were insanely sinewy). Came out strong in 1st, tapered in the 2nd, died in the 3rd. A move up could produce better results for him (and maybe us).