Looks like a wild day in stock market
- Thread starter royboy
- Start date
Forgot don’t know much about love, because if we did, what a wonderful world it would be!
Well, one thing I realized a long time ago: For every buyer, there is a seller. Someone's betting up and someone's betting down.
I'll tell you what's dumb: Someone thinking they can definitively say that the market is overvalued or undervalued. Market price is market price. Period.
Intraday moves are routinely reported. Meaning you're an idiot. Got it.
Yeah, it sure seems obvious that the intrinsic value of US corporate enterprise has tripled in the last 10 years. Howie, are you SURE that those who have called massive market crashes in the past were just lucky? Lol.
Like most hard core dems, he's simply rooting against the US Economy. He can't contain his glee actually.
Like most lawn service professionals, you do not know what you are talking about if the subject isn't some sort of fertilizer dispute.
Yes, I'm sure. Anyone who thinks they can time the market on a consistent basis is fooling themselves. So yeah, I'm damn sure.
Not the same thing as saying it is overvalued, but please, continue spouting your wisdom.
Yes it is. Take a damn Finance 101 course and then come back and see if you can be anything but an ignoramus. You don't even recognize intraday moves which is what started this conversation. Yeah, there's someone who doesn't know jack shit in this conversation, and it isn't me.
It is pretty pathetic you actually believe this.
So for those of us with large cash positions, is it time to start buying? Now or wait a few more weeks/months for the pandemic to play out. Do you start phased buying at -10%, -15%. -20% if it gets that far?
This will have worldwide economic impact, maybe 2-3 points of global GDP, but then as it runs its course, there should be pretty robust recovery. It could be a little like every country dealing with a spate of natural disasters at once. As soon as people can count their losses and move on, then Wall Street is happy again.
I think the market is right to react but below -15% feels to me like an over-reaction - the news is all bad but as governments refine their strategies and the disease runs its course, the news will be more neutral. Within a few months the whole thing will be more predictable so business will be able to plan for it.
The virus is coming, the death rate will be high for a virus, there will be a lot of emotional impact for those of us who lose (mostly elderly) loved ones. But for most people this will just be a period of time without a lot of public events. And then it will be over, most people will be immune to it, and normal life will resume.
This will have worldwide economic impact, maybe 2-3 points of global GDP, but then as it runs its course, there should be pretty robust recovery. It could be a little like every country dealing with a spate of natural disasters at once. As soon as people can count their losses and move on, then Wall Street is happy again.
I think the market is right to react but below -15% feels to me like an over-reaction - the news is all bad but as governments refine their strategies and the disease runs its course, the news will be more neutral. Within a few months the whole thing will be more predictable so business will be able to plan for it.
The virus is coming, the death rate will be high for a virus, there will be a lot of emotional impact for those of us who lose (mostly elderly) loved ones. But for most people this will just be a period of time without a lot of public events. And then it will be over, most people will be immune to it, and normal life will resume.
Imagine the loneliness and self-pity it takes to throw a tantrum here, swear you’re leaving, come back, and make comments in threads that, other than hogies and high school basketball and arguably 1970s rock your dad liked, you have no idea what you’re talking about, and project that onto others.
Everybody’s favorite nearly-60 cat owner, our own grass and apparent equity market expert, MtNittany. Non-stop entertainment.
Not all that different from 2008 when Obama took office at the scariest time of the Great Recession and Rush Limbaugh told his listeners he hoped that Obama's presidency would fail -- 40 or 50 million people out of work is a minor nuisance compared with how important it was for Rush to get the Oval Office to take his phone calls again. Regardless of your politics, if you have loved ones who depend on having jobs, or you just have any compassion for ordinary humans, you can't be rooting for a recession.
I bought a little yesterday thru our Vanguard Fund, for pretty much your reasons. Today I spoke with my adviser at ML with the idea of maybe buying into the carnage. Here is their advice for what it's worth:
"Potentially in the near future. At the moment our analysts are still looking for more data on the virus and companies’ earnings guidance."
So i guess since they are the professionals I'll wait til they know more, tho it sure is tempting to step in now
I'll say it again, Fed Fund futures traders priced in 2 rate cuts in 2020 for unknown reason weeks ago. Feds Clarida said no way last week. They are now pricing 3 cuts. He said too early to tell and not cutting blindly. This is a game of chicken. It is not the virus but expectations whether Fed will continue to flood market with cheap money via lower rates and QE. Market not liking non compliance from Fed
It's pretty simple math really. When the discount rate is lower, the value of equities is higher. So if the market priced in a lower expected discount rate than the one they now are likely to get, valuations take a hit. One can do the math on a calculator.
No, the only thing I would consider doing is refinancing if applicable. The rates are as low as they have probably ever been. If you have a 30 and can go 15, you can probably get in the 2’s%.
But the impact to this could be monstrous. Possible that some companies if this runs its course as it could have revenues be halved in China. Globally, given China import, this is a massive event.
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You know what is really dumb. When you are too lazy and dumb to understand when an asset is not really an asset on a companies books. Along with axioms that are trite and work sometimes while other times they do not.
Quotes by Jay Leno
"The stock market took a dive today. It was so bad, Goldman Sachs had to lay off three congressmen."
"The stock market took a dive today. It was so bad, Goldman Sachs had to lay off three congressmen."
- Asia significantly down again (Nikkei -4%).
- Futures turned red (but an often meaningless signal overnight).
I heard a business report analyst claim that U.S. stocks were still about 15% overpriced based on historic price/earnings ratios. Said market should trade around 14. I struggle with that when interest rates are at historic lows. I know it's not exact and prices depend on the company, outlook for a business, and so on, but for an overall average like this it would seem to me that lower interest rates, in general, should drive a higher price/earnings ratio relative to the historic norm. If I am wrong someone please kindly explain why there is no connection (i.e., If you feel compelled to be condescending, then don't respond. Put me on ignore). When the Fed cuts rates it boosts stock prices. Even the expectation of a cut does this. When central banks flood markets with liquidity that cash eventually shows up in higher earnings rates. What am I missing here?
So I'm not seeing a bubble. I see panic based on the virus and now a likely threat that, should a recession occur during election season, we could be looking at an administration that would be less friendly to stocks. If so I will move more of my money into international stocks.
So I'm not seeing a bubble. I see panic based on the virus and now a likely threat that, should a recession occur during election season, we could be looking at an administration that would be less friendly to stocks. If so I will move more of my money into international stocks.
You and demlion deserve each other. No one will ever be going to you for investment advice.
Bingo. A voice here who understands unlike some here who seem to be cheering for a recession.
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