Bubble Talk/Who to Root For (and against) for PSU's Chances
- Thread starter Erial_Lion
- Start date
North Carolina has more work to do...and Pitt was still potentially ok with the loss. Wisconsin on the other hand will be done with a loss.
Limped across the finish line, but it was an important win!
We are now back to last 4 in according to Lunardi. Somehow Mississippi State jumped us and they are in the last 4 byes group.
when you are on the bubble sometimes its as small as one of their OOC teams winning a couple games to increase SOS or jump up a quad
Wednesday was fair for us...Wisconsin pretty much got knocked out of the picture, a few teams that were looking pretty good already picked up wins, and a few teams on the outside looking in stayed alive. Busy day today...as for "bid stealers", I won't mention them until they've made the semifinal (and have a game against a "non-bid stealer")...
Thursday, 3/9
Thursday, 3/9
- 12:00pm - Michigan (51%) vs Rutgers - Really a double-bubble game. I'm rooting for Michigan, since a win here and a loss against Purdue might keep us above both of them in the event of a loss tonight. Although, if Rutgers wins, they likely land ahead of us if we drop it tonight, but it knocks Michigan out of the picture.
- 1:00pm - Florida (45%) vs Mississippi St - This is a big one. Mississippi St would get Alabama tomorrow with a win, and a loss there obviously wouldn't hurt them. However, a loss today to our old friend Myreon Jones and Florida would definitely put a dent in their chances.
- 2:30pm - Duke (60%) vs Pittsburgh - It could be argued that Pitt would still be relatively safely in the field with a loss today, but it could be close. Either way, a loss does hurt their chances, and hopefully helps us land ahead of them in our quest to avoid Dayton if we're dancing.
- 5:30pm - Washington State (46%) vs Oregon - Oregon would still need to do more work beyond today if they want to dance, but it would be nice to just end any chance today.
- 5:30pm - San Jose State (34%) vs Nevada - Nevada is hanging right there with us on the bubble. They are another team that would still have more work to do, but I'd love for them to lose and try to prevent a 4th teams from the MWC from making it into the field.
- 6:30pm - Florida Atlantic (87%) vs Western Kentucky - FAU is dancing, so we really want them to win the CUSA title. They open things up today in the Quarterfinal. They'll face a stiffer test in the Championship game should they get there, but don't want to take the first two on the way there for granted.
- 7:00pm - Quinnipiac (74%) vs Marist - Lower impact, but the bracket has cleared in the MAAC for our non-conference opponent Quinnipiac. They get 11th seeded Marist today, and then would meet 10th seeded Saint Peter's in the semifinal. They are just below the Q3/Q4 cut line, but a few big wins would push that one back to a Q3 win (not a huge deal, but continues to make the resume on paper look better), plus the potential additional win over the field.
- 7:00pm - Virginia (51%) vs North Carolina - Another massive one...Carolina should be heading to the NIT with a loss, while a win starts to really enhance their resume.
- 7:00pm - Texas (68%) vs Oklahoma St - Oklahoma State might still be ok with a loss, but it'll be close and they'd certainly be heading to Dayton if they sneak in. It would be great if they don't make it an 8th team from the Big 12.
- 9:30pm - LSU (30%) vs Vanderbilt - Vandy is still well outside the bubble and likely needs a trip to the SEC title game. However, they have been hot as of late, and it's one less team to worry about should they drop this one.
- 9:30pm - NC State (56%) vs Clemson - I'm assuming that NC State is pretty much locked in at this point, while Clemson is a few more wins away from making it interested. I'm fine with giving NC State their spot in the field if it means sending Clemson to the NIT.
- 11:30pm - New Mexico (40%) vs Utah St - This is a tough call, as a New Mexico State win gets them closer to getting back into it. But I think it's worth it to give Utah State another loss, as they are sitting in the better position of these two today.
- 11:30pm - USC (59%) vs Arizona St - We just did this a few days ago, as USC knocked off Arizona St in their final regular season game. USC is likely in the field regardless (though a loss makes it closer), while Arizona State really needs this one. I think it's best to give USC the 3rd bid from the P12 while trying to prevent them from getting a 4th.
Rutgers pulling away. It looks like Rutgers is in and Michigan is out.
Myreon had a shot to win it both in regulation and in OT, but Miss St defended him well on both of them.
Florida comes all the way back from down 5 in OT and takes the lead with 12 seconds left after a steal off their press. Then play crappy D to let penetration all the way to the basket for a simple pass and easy lay in for the Miss Stste big man.
Ohio State showing why we needed to avoid them in the tournament.
They had their run. I can't see them winning again. At some point their legs catch up with them against a well rested team.
And why predictive metrics were showing us they were still pretty good as people looked at their record and declared that they sucked.
What a joke…you’re still sticking to your “zero chance with a loss tonight”, even though all evidence points against that incorrect take?
If anything, our chances have increased this week with the happenings elsewhere.
No evidence points against it. Hopefully we win but if we don't somehow you'll be shocked apparently.
Again no chance with a loss today and you can still ask me 900 more times if I'm sticking with that between now and the announcement if we lose.
Two former Big 10 coaches...Steve Alford w Nevada and Tim Miles w San Jose
Pretty massive result as San Jose St knocks them off...Nevada is in pretty rough shape heading into Selection Sunday.
Virginia knocks off NC< and Texas up 10 with 3 minutes left...if Texas can close this out, the story really becomes whether we're avoiding Dayton (which is looking like a good bet at this point).
Obviously a massive day for our chances yesterday. At this point, should we lose today, I'd estimate things at 55% straight into the field, 40% heading to Dayton, and 5% out. A win, and we're 90+% to avoid Dayton. So, all of these other results still matter a lot as we root against teams around us, and hope for no bid-stealers...
Friday, 3/10
Friday, 3/10
- 12:00pm - Purdue (60%) vs Rutgers - Rutgers is right around us...but a win over Purdue would really enhance their resume. We don't want to see that.
- 12:30pm - Florida Atlantic (81%) vs Middle Tennessee - CUSA Semi...need FAU to win this tournament to avoid a bid stealer. They'd face a stiffer test tomorrow against North Texas or UAB if they can get past MTSU.
- 1:00pm - Alabama (76%) vs Mississippi St - Miss St is hanging around the same spot as us (maybe slightly below us). However, a win over Alabama and their resume looks much stronger.
- 1:00pm - Houston (96%) vs East Carolina - We need Houston or Memphis to win the AAC to avoid a bid stealer. If they both don't win today and tomorrow to face off in the Title game on Sunday, they'd we'd have to sweat it with a definitely big stealer playing in it. This one should be pretty manageable for them.
- 2:30pm - Michigan St (59%) vs Ohio St - OSU is the lone potential bid-stealer in the Big Ten...don't want them winning the tournament and they are dangerous right now, so hoping Michigan St can end it for them this afternoon.
- 7:00pm - Memphis (60%) vs UCF - see the write-up on Houston, expect that Memphis isn't nearly as good, and has a much tougher road. We'd like to see them start it off tonight with a win.
- 9:00pm - UCLA (76%) vs Oregon - Oregon is the lone bid stealer left in the Pac12, and they might even make things interesting for their bubble chances if they can win tonight and lose in the title game tomorrow. A UCLA win here should end any chances that Oregon has of dancing.
- 9:30pm - San Diego St (74%) vs San Jose St - SJSU is the lone potential bid-stealer in the MWC. Utah State looks safe now, so we want to keep the MWC to a three bid league.
- 9:30pm - Virginia (55%) vs Clemson - Clemson is likely still on the outside looking in, but its getting close. A win, and their odds of an at-large greatly increase, plus they'd be in the ACC title game playing for the auto-bid.
- 9:30pm - Kentucky (68%) vs Vanderbilt - A win tonight still won't be enough for Vandy, but it put them into the semis where they would be getting right back into the mix. We'd like to see Kentucky send them to the NIT.
- 11:30pm - Arizona (73%) vs Arizona St - Arizona St might have punched their ticket with the win over USC last night, but their ceiling is likely still Dayton unless they knock off Arizona again tonight. It would be nice to keep them behind us in the pecking order.
Not sure how we are 5% odds of missing the tourney? I guess if teams like Vandy and OSU win the conference tournaments and steal bids but even at that we should make it.
If we get beat badly tonight and our NET heads back around 60, some bad results in other places, the committee not valuing us quite as highly as all of the other bracketologists, etc. It might be more like 2%, but I'd say it's still a non-zero chance that we could miss (it would take a heck of a lot of bad luck though).
All 4 early games going as we wanted, and Sensabaugh is out today for Ohio St which definitely changes things for them.
Ohio St looks good early, wonder if their legs catch up to them in the 2nd half?
They've only been going 8 deep for the past month...Tanner Holden is getting some minutes today, but this will be a tough ask for them.
Yes, but man they looked good in the first half. Maybe it catches up with them as the game wears on.
Things appear to be pretty safe at this point, but it would still be great to avoid any stolen bids down the stretch that could push us to Dayton. Here are my games to watch today...
Saturday, 3/11
Saturday, 3/11
- 1:00pm - Purdue (72%) vs Ohio St - Our position has improved enough that I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio St pull off another upset so that we could get them in their 5th game in 5 days should we be able to pull it out today. However, from a bid thief standpoint, Ohio St winning the championship tomorrow would definitely steal a spot in the field and push us closer to having to head to Dayton.
- 3:00pm - Houston (82%) vs Cincinnati - AAC Semifinal...need Houston or Memphis to win this tournament to prevent one of the others from stealing a bid.
- 3:30pm - Texas A&M (67%) vs Vanderbilt - Another win today, and Vandy might even sneak into the back end of the field as an at-large (still don't think it's enough for them, but it gets interesting). However, we don't want them winning the SEC tomorrow to steal an auto-bid.
- 5:30pm - Memphis (74%) vs Tulane - The other AAC Semi...if Houston and Memphis both win today, nothing for anyone to sweat tomorrow. But if one of them loses, then the AAC could turn into a 3 bid league with a bad result.
- 8:30pm - Florida Atlantic (59%) vs UAB - Biggest game of the day (and the week in some ways) for Bubble teams...FAU is a lock to dance, so a loss here knocks someone out of the field and shifts everyone clear of Dayton one team closer to heading there. UAB is actually a 2.5 point favorite in this one, so lots at stake.
Watched the end of the Fordham game vs La Salle. Tsimbila had big late foul shots and d. Kelly did play a bit too. Great postgame interview with Urgo, who immediately named his wife and other program wives as MVPs...then ran into a raicous student section. Happy for him!
I think we are a good bet for a 9 seed winning today. Otherwise 10. 9 could be our ceiling although 8 is the same thing. Don't see us as a 7 no matter what.
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