I have watched several of the soccer teams play during the NCAA Women's Soccer Division I tournament. And what jumps out at me is
how out of whack with reality United Soccer Coaches rankings, and the NCAA seedings are.
First, regarding Florida State being ranked at #1. They played a
fall schedule. And their #1 ranking is based on the fact that they went 11-0-0
last fall. First,
Malia Berkely who started all 11 of those games, is now playing professional soccer in France. Berkely was a RS Junior and had she chosen to use the extra year of eligibility, she would have had two more years left with the Seminoles. But, she decided to turn pro. IMHO opinion that is a game changer, much like Stanford losing Catarina Macario before this season began.
Below are my rankings for the remaining teams in the Sweet 16 (3rd. round).
Note: This is how the teams are playing NOW, the players they have on roster NOW and who's hot and who's not. My ranking for Penn State is
if they have a healthy Payton Linnehan available for the Florida St. game and beyond. Also, my rankings of the remaining teams includes things such as home turf advantage and a strong emphasis for "what have you done for me lately?"
- Penn State
- TCU
- North Carolina
- Florida State
- Virginia
- UCLA
- Arkansas
- Santa Clara
- Clemson
- Oklahoma St.
- Georgetown
- Texas A&M
- Duke
- Rice
- Washington
- Mississippi
Here is the schedule for the third round. All times ET.
Further musings: Again, PSU has to have a healthy Payton Linnehan in order to keep winning. And Abello also.
If Linnehan can't play on Wednesday then the Florida St. game could be a loss. Besides being the fastest player on Penn State's team, Linnehan has supreme soccer skills, and is literally all over the field. She hustles 100% of the time, and plays defense as well as offense. Linnehan would get my vote for team MVP and without her the team would be greatly diminished. Think she has a sprained knee...but that is enough to cause a player to miss some playing time. Hopefully Andra can work her trainer magic.....
Other musings: Duke wsoc is overrated virtually every year...much like Notre Dame is most years in college football.
The current Florida State team is not as good as they were in the fall and not as good as the 2018 title team.
Mississippi is leading a charmed soccer life: They tied Bowling Green 0-0 and won on penalty kicks. And then in the 2nd. round they tied Southern Cal 2-2 and won AGAIN on PK's
I'd rate several of the 3rd. round games as dead even or pick-em kind of games:
- Mississippi vs. Duke - Even
- Santa Clara vs. Arkansas - Even
- Oklahoma St. vs. Texas A&M - Even
Most of the games are tight. Only TCU and maybe Virginia might get multiple goal wins. The other games should be one goal games or PK wins.
The most dangerous teams right now: Penn State, Virginia, Oklahoma St. and Santa Clara. Yes, don't sleep on the Broncos. Lots of 4 star & 3 star California girls on Santa Clara's team.
Last, IF Penn State can get past Florida State, then their quarterfinal game against the Ole Miss-Duke winner would be easier than the Florida St. game and easier than the war WSOC had with Vanderbilt. So, a win over Florida State and the squad most likely would reach the College Cup round.
Keep an eye on the Starting XI tweet by
@PennStateWSOC about the time the game starts. If Linnehan's name is there it means she is reasonably close to 100%. I'm not saying the group can't beat the Seminoles without her; but a win would become much harder and much more in doubt.
