Which State is Toughest to Win a State Title In?

[El-Jefe]

There is a reason that the Dapper Dan has taken place for years, which is the best Seniors in PA vs. the best Seniors combined from the other 49 states. The fact that PA has won some and been competitive says it all. They also completely dominate almost every year in NCAA qualifiers and All-Americans.

It only says that PA is the toughest state.

Send only AA kids, no AAA, and it's lopsided for USA most if not every year.

 

[Callthestall]

That's simply not true. You are focusing on the sheer numbers when in reality the cream always rises to the top no matter the numbers. As Voltz99 said, adding more guys to the bracket simply adds cannon fodder for the best of the best. It doesn't change the outcome for those guys. If you have more of the best (like in PA), then numbers matter less. For a marginal guy struggling to make the podium, you are correct, but that isn't the question here.

Example: The NCAA decides tomorrow to make 174 a 64 man bracket. Does Carter's odds of winning his 4th diminish in any real way? NO. Would the guy seeded 8th have a harder time making the podium. Probably but not by much. It's just more fluff in the mix but doesn't have a major part in the outcome. Do upsets happen? Of course. Is it a normal thing? Not at all.

Your argument is flawed from a probability and statistics point of view. By Carter wrestling one extra match it would certainly reduce his odds in winning a 4th title. Not much but it calcute to lower odds because of the slim chance of getting caught or injured in that extra match. Would he still be the favorite,yes ,but his odds would be reduced from a betting standpoint. Think of horse race. The great horse that runs in 8 horse field will have lower odds than if he runs against the same 8 horses with 4 nags added to make it a 12 horse field. It's just math.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Your argument is flawed from a probability and statistics point of view. By Carter wrestling one extra match it would certainly reduce his odds in winning a 4th title. Not much but it calcute to lower odds because of the slim chance of getting caught or injured in that extra match. Would he still be the favorite,yes ,but his odds would be reduced from a betting standpoint. Think of horse race. The great horse that runs in 8 horse field will have lower odds than if he runs against the same 8 horses with 4 nags added to make it a 12 horse field. It's just math.

You are moving the goal posts. You said, "Due to the largest pool of wrestlers and being single class, the odds of winning a championship in Cali are considerbly worse than any other state".

My post was based on your use of the word "considerably". My point, which doesn't need a lot of statistics and math to deduce the answer, is that in your example, Carter's odds of winning another championship is not much different if a boatload of extra average to above average wrestlers join the tournament.

 

[Just another PSU Fan]

for what it's worth - Cael came to Penn State for the talent in PA and surrounding states ... why argue with Cael?

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

for what it's worth - Cael came to Penn State for the talent in PA and surrounding states ... why argue with Cael?

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeWswNXJhaHBuZXlkOTRyZHh6OWdmeHUzemJnb2kzamdoNnAzMG1qOCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/U23rlgyL8QmQn7xrqt/giphy-downsized-large.gif

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Maybe it really is easier to win a State Title in PA.
Probably why so many top tier kids are transferring in every year.🤷🏿‍♂️

 

[Callthestall]

You are moving the goal posts. You said, "Due to the largest pool of wrestlers and being single class, the odds of winning a championship in Cali are considerbly worse than any other state".

My post was based on your use of the word "considerably". My point, which doesn't need a lot of statistics and math to deduce the answer, is that in your example, Carter's odds of winning another championship is not much different if a boatload of extra average to above average wrestlers join the tournament.

I don't think I said anything about California. I think you got me confused. I said I thought New Jersey maybe was the toughest because of the top talent and one class. You seem to be a numbers guy yet said Carter odds wouldn't change if field was doubled. I'm saying the odds would change a little because of the extra match involved. It would be marginal. Maybe 5:4 compared 5:3 or 10:7. It's just numbers.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

You are moving the goal posts. You said, "Due to the largest pool of wrestlers and being single class, the odds of winning a championship in Cali are considerbly worse than any other state".

My post was based on your use of the word "considerably". My point, which doesn't need a lot of statistics and math to deduce the answer, is that in your example, Carter's odds of winning another championship is not much different if a boatload of extra average to above average wrestlers join the tournament.

Moving the goalpost is using CStar as the example of all PA high school champions. It's basic stats. NJ is also more difficult than PA because of the one class and concentration of talent. In NJ's case, the overall pool is smaller but PA's 2 classes increase the chances of winning a championship.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Moving the goalpost is using CStar as the example of all PA high school champions.

We agree. I don't know why he brought Cstar up in the first place, so rather than muddy the water more, I thought it best to stick to the goalposts he created. Good catch!

 

[AgSurfer]

I remember a time when one of CA's 4 timers wrestled two PA state champs in the same year. He was clobbered twice by the older Ciasulli (Easton) at Reno and Baglio(RedLand) at Dapper Dan.
Doesn't say much for CA 4 timers.
The internet was burning up with insults between CA and PA people leading up to the first bout. Kinda quiet afterwards, total silence after Baglio decked their star.

Let’s not forget what happened when the next CA 4X state champion wrestled a PA guy at DD. Mejia from Clovis went against ADS and the result wasn’t very pretty. At work, a friend and I gave a guy from Clovis a pretty hard time.

 

[zzs006]

Let’s not forget what happened when the next CA 4X state champion wrestled a PA guy at DD. Mejia from Clovis went against ADS and the result wasn’t very pretty. At work, a friend and I gave a guy from Clovis a pretty hard time.

PA 4 timer Thomas Haines lost to CA boy Nick Nevills at dapper dan. We can all cherry pick results

 

[El-Jefe]

PA 4 timer Thomas Haines lost to CA boy Nick Nevills at dapper dan. We can all cherry pick results

Cary Kolat did not win his Dapper Dan match.

Do we really want to use that event as some kind of barometer?

 

[zzs006]

Cary Kolat did not win his Dapper Dan match.

Do we really want to use that event as some kind of barometer?

I was just about to ask about Kolat. Was it a draw or did he lose?

 

[AgSurfer]

PA 4 timer Thomas Haines lost to CA boy Nick Nevills at dapper dan. We can all cherry pick results

I wasn't cherry picking anything. I was only pointing out the fact that the first two 4X state champions in CA didn't do very well against their PA opponents. Those two particular match ups don't prove or disprove anything about PA or CA wrestling. They do give us PA natives a a good opportunity for some trash talk with our CA wrestling friends. 😁

BTW, I'm a big fan of the HS wrestling programs in the CA central valley region. The teams are very good and I also like the people. I've had the pleasure of meeting Adam Tirapelli in person and he's a genuine down to earth guy.

As to which state has the toughest tournament to win, I have no idea. All I know is that you have to be really good to make it to the top of the podium in either state.

 

[Sportfan2017]

After reading all the posts....I think it is unquestionably clear......the toughest state to win a championship in is........drum roll........whatever state you are supporting....

 

[Cali_Nittany]

We agree. I don't know why he brought Cstar up in the first place, so rather than muddy the water more, I thought it best to stick to the goalposts he created. Good catch!

We can make some equations...

 

[hlstone]

I was just about to ask about Kolat. Was it a draw or did he lose?

I believe it was a draw, but many people think Kolat should have lost.

 

[AgSurfer]

FYI - related to this thread, Flo has posted the CA state finals on YouTube. A lot of close matches. Poway put SEVEN guys in the finals and set a state scoring record! Their coach for their big guys is none other than Stephan Neal.