something crazy......
December 2, 2020 -- Daily 7-day average for positives was 169,690, 7-day average for fatality was 1910.
December 2, 2021 -- Daily 7-day average for positives is 93,680, 7-day average for fatality is 937.
So 93,680/169,690 = 55% of daily positive compared to last year.
So 937/1910 = 49% of daily fatality compared to last year.
Last year at this time we had no vaccinations, the total cases have also gone from 15M to 50M per the data. So an incremental 35M people have tested positive (with some percent of them having natural antibodies).
So when I look at those numbers, the vaccinations (and all the additional exposures with natural antibody's) have done nothing? We are at half the cases and half the death total.
What am I missing?
The big problem with the numbers is the daily positivity numbers. It's soooo dependent upon human behavior. Death, now that's another thing - you can't say that you don't want to go to the morgue when you're dead. So deaths are only subject to miscoding, surely a much smaller error percentage.
Imagine that early on, when it was fear porn deluxe, everyone was going and getting tested. Got a sniffle, get tested. Got a bum ankle, get tested for Covid. Now, I think people are just tired of it, and they're not going to get tested as often.
But that said, something is wrong with what we are being told.
If the daily positive numbers are indicative of the degree of spread of the disease, what it would mean is that really, once you're infected, the vaccines are doing almost nothing. That's the conclusion you would draw.
But as I noted above, I think there are a LOT more people who get infected, and just don't go get tested. They're just tired of it, and will wait for natural recovery.
Now, data I've used says the vaccine is about 85% effective against death. But we are STILL averaging about 1200 deaths per day, when the prior peak was about 3000 deaths per day. But all of the dead people are over age 65+. They're vaccinated at almost 90%.
So, one of two things (or a combination) must be true:
1. A lot more people have contracted Covid this time around, they're just not getting tested, and so the vaccine is still 85% effective, but a lot of people x 15% can still equal 1200 deaths per day.
2. The vaccine just is not really 85% effective against death.
I hope it is point 1, because that means herd immunity is almost here.
1. A lot more people have contracted Covid this time around than the daily case numbers would indicate.