Two ACC teams in CFP probably pushes PSU out of NY6

[Howie'81]

They are setting the stage for it if Miami loses a close one.

Yeah, only Penn State gets creamed for losing a close one. Blowout losses don't matter for other teams though.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

There is no Politics involved (except maybe for the ratings). It is best ranked team in with caveats.
The key here is the Orange Bowl is the only 'replacement Bowl' this year.
So that means the following
1-4 will be in Sugar/Rose. Lets Assume worst case scenario in that teams that lose stay ahead of us. with 2 ACC teams in
Sugar- Auburn-Clemson
Rose -Miami-Ohio State
Orange - Virginia Tech vs Bama (highest ranked) SEC team vs Highest ranked ACC
That leaves 6 spots for the next 6 teams (caveat being conference champs get in
Peach - Oklahoma vs UCF (Non P5 vs Big12)
Fiesta - USC vs Wisconsin
Cotton - Georgia vs. ND

This would cause us to miss the NY6.

Will this happen - it could - but in reality - it isn't likely. and here is why. The only way this works is if Auburn wins the SEC. A three loss Auburn will more than likely be below a 2 loss PSU. If this happens that means Bama is sitting at 11-1 and would more than likely get in over a 2nd ACC team. Lets look at that scenario
Sugar - Auburn-Ohio State
Rose - Clemson (or Clemson) - Alabama
Orange - Miami (or Clemson) vs Georgia
Peach - Oklahoma vs UCF
Cotton - Wisconsin vs ND
Fiesta - USC vs PSU

Don't get hung up on the matchups or so and so can win. Miami/Clemson would be interchangable.

After 6 conference champs (5 P5 and best non P5). There are 6 slots available. Other than replacements (which again only the Orange Bowl has this year) - the next slots go to the next best teams. With the Rose/Sugar hosting - and teams that are tied to those bowls lilkely in the playoff - it reduces the replacement teams.
With 6 teams getting in after the guarantees - with the replacement ahead of us (miami/clemson loser) - Will get in. There are 12 slots (which mean 2 teams below us can get in automatically without taking our slot. Right now this would be UCF/USC. If another team below us has to get (only way is if ACC gets 2 in) then we lose it. But as I explained - that isn't likely as the SEC would more than likely get 2 in or we will be above Auburn (with 3 losses).
This means that even if USC jumps us we should be fine (we would be 11 - but only 1 team behind us gets the auto bid - which means the top top 11 gets in).
The scenario that can hurt us the most is if OU/TCU win this week and then TCU upsets oklahoma in the title game. That could allow BOTH TCU/Oklahoma to be ranked ahead of us - thus costing us the NY6 Bowl

your second scenario is much more likely.
No way does bama get left out for 2 ACC teams imo

 

[PSUinSTL]

your second scenario is much more likely.
No way does bama get left out for 2 ACC teams imo

That was my point.
In the SEC -
1) Bama wins out Auburn drops behind us and we get in
2) Bama beats Auburn and loses to Georgia - SEC would get 2 in Auburn drops below us - we get in
3) Bama loses to Auburn. The SEC gets 2 in - we get in as an atlarge (as the ACC wouldn't get 2 into the playoff.

The only situation that scares me of getting left out - is if TCU wins out and beats a 1 loss Oklahoma.
This hurts us if Nobody else drops below us. TCU jumping us is the only thing keeping us out of the NY6 bowls. USC jumping us doesn't. Stanford jumping us doesn't (they only jump us by winning out). Washington State Jumping us doesn't (they only jump us by winning the conference). The PAC champ jumping us doesn't hurt us - cause they are in regardless. UCF jumping doesn't hurt (as they are in regardless)

We beat Maryland - there is a 99% chance of us making a NY6 Bowl (not 100% certain cause if Auburn loses to Bama - they could stay ahead of us (if it is a kick 6 type situation) or some other random team can jump us somehow.