Just to add to the detailed “NY6” post earlier:
Its may be easier to look at things from the standpoint of “12 Teams are in that group”, and don’t worry about who is in the “Final Four”, vs in one of the other NY6 Bowls.
From that standpoint, I think it’s a little clearer to just look at:
“Are there 12 teams that could be ahead of a 10-2 Penn State team in the pecking order”
1) Assume ND as “in”
2) One non-P5 as “in” (probably UCF)
That leaves 10 spots for the P-5 teams
ACC:
Will almost certainly get 2, due to the tie-in with the Orange Bowl, but no chance to have more than 2 in front of a 10-2 PSU team
So those become spots 3) and 4)
SEC:
Alabama and Georgia (barring an end of season collapse) are highly likely to be in. Auburn could get in, BUT only if they knock off Alabama and Georgia (twice). In which case they would replace Georgia as the second SEC team in place of Georgia
So those become spots 5) and 6)
B12:
They get the conference winner in ahead of Penn State – but no one else (a 2 or 3 loss TCU or Oklahoma State won’t be ahead of Penn State)
So that is spot 7)
Pac12:
Worst case scenario for PSU is that both USC and Washington win out, AND USC defeats Washington in the P12 championship.
Even then, highly unlikely (as in almost impossible) a 2-loss Washington is ahead of 10-2 Penn State
So that is spot 8)
So, that stills leaves FOUR spots to fill
BigTen:
Winner of the B10 Championship in, and likely the loser of the B10 Championship (though that isn’t a given, since the BigTen East team could go into the Championship game with 3 losses, and if they lose to Wisconsin, a 4 loss team wouldn’t be ahead of PSU)
So, assuming the B10 Championship loser does get in
That is spots 9) and 10)
Given "who plays who" from here on out, there is essentially no scenario under which PSU is not only in the NY6, but actually gets in with a bit of room to spare (as the “11th team”, rather than the "12th"), so even some crazy scenario that elevated another team over them – they still get in.
IF THEY WIN OUT.
That is the task at hand for PSU. Just as it was last week wrt the "Final Four".
Its may be easier to look at things from the standpoint of “12 Teams are in that group”, and don’t worry about who is in the “Final Four”, vs in one of the other NY6 Bowls.
From that standpoint, I think it’s a little clearer to just look at:
“Are there 12 teams that could be ahead of a 10-2 Penn State team in the pecking order”
1) Assume ND as “in”
2) One non-P5 as “in” (probably UCF)
That leaves 10 spots for the P-5 teams
ACC:
Will almost certainly get 2, due to the tie-in with the Orange Bowl, but no chance to have more than 2 in front of a 10-2 PSU team
So those become spots 3) and 4)
SEC:
Alabama and Georgia (barring an end of season collapse) are highly likely to be in. Auburn could get in, BUT only if they knock off Alabama and Georgia (twice). In which case they would replace Georgia as the second SEC team in place of Georgia
So those become spots 5) and 6)
B12:
They get the conference winner in ahead of Penn State – but no one else (a 2 or 3 loss TCU or Oklahoma State won’t be ahead of Penn State)
So that is spot 7)
Pac12:
Worst case scenario for PSU is that both USC and Washington win out, AND USC defeats Washington in the P12 championship.
Even then, highly unlikely (as in almost impossible) a 2-loss Washington is ahead of 10-2 Penn State
So that is spot 8)
So, that stills leaves FOUR spots to fill
BigTen:
Winner of the B10 Championship in, and likely the loser of the B10 Championship (though that isn’t a given, since the BigTen East team could go into the Championship game with 3 losses, and if they lose to Wisconsin, a 4 loss team wouldn’t be ahead of PSU)
So, assuming the B10 Championship loser does get in
That is spots 9) and 10)
Given "who plays who" from here on out, there is essentially no scenario under which PSU is not only in the NY6, but actually gets in with a bit of room to spare (as the “11th team”, rather than the "12th"), so even some crazy scenario that elevated another team over them – they still get in.
IF THEY WIN OUT.
That is the task at hand for PSU. Just as it was last week wrt the "Final Four".
