Wrestling Predicting Penn State's dual vs. Iowa

[CSauertiegPSU]

*Extremely Bruce Buffer voice*: It's tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimeeee for Penn State to head to Iowa for the biggest dual of the year. Lex Knapp and I have you breakdown and predictions below.

Happy Valley Insider - Prediciting each match in the Iowa - Penn State Wrestling dual

Predicting each match in tonight's highly anticipated dual between Iowa and Penn State Wrestling.

pennstate.rivals.com

 

[The Japanese Whizzer]

Wow, this dual is tight with only 157 and 184 as decided favorites and those are split between the teams. I like PSU to win it with 5 regular decisions and 1 major. I like RBY and Nick Lee for certain and Dean less certainly, the other two wins from some mix of Beau, Drew, Carter and Kirk.

 

[Truth_Talk]

I can't imagine Bartlett losing to Murin, I've tried...very hard, but I just can't do it.

 

[District four]

I can't imagine Bartlett losing to Murin, I've tried...very hard, but I just can't do it.

Lol. I'm with you and I can't help but think Beau is going big with at least one move. He is more confident and this would really cement him as an upcoming leader on this team down the road.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

I think the predictions were pretty spot on. I'd be happy if Iowa had a chance to pull it out when the heavyweights take the mat and that could be up to Warner and Dean. I just don't think Tony can match up with Kerk.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

I can't imagine Bartlett losing to Murin, I've tried...very hard, but I just can't do it.

While Eierman and Marinelli are wrestling below their standards so far this year, Murin has looked very good. Especially his last three matches. Providing his face holds up, it will come down to the last 30 seconds one way or another.

 

[McScoreley]

Murin has looked better than Beau this year. It's okay to admit it. I wouldn't call that match a tossup like I did at the beginning of the year. I don't think anyone would be shocked if Beau wins but Murin has differentiated himself at this point.

 

[RoarLions1]

While Eierman and Marinelli are wrestling below their standards so far this year, Murin has looked very good. Especially his last three matches. Providing his face holds up, it will come down to the last 30 seconds one way or another.

I agree ChiPack. And tbh, 149 is one of seven bouts (imo) that are close enough to call toss-ups. It's duals like tonight's that the wrestlers should embrace, and is one reason they went to their respective schools (insert Bo quote here ). Hard to keep one's emotions/energy in check at CHA, but that's what our guys must do. Frankly, not concerned about that with the leadership the team has, but adrenaline rushes followed by gassing can happen. Looking forward to a great dual. Let's lace 'em up, and may the best guy win!!

 

[RoarLions1]

Murin has looked better than Beau this year. It's okay to admit it. I wouldn't call that match a tossup like I did at the beginning of the year. I don't think anyone would be shocked if Beau wins but Murin has differentiated himself at this point.

I don't see any separation. Murin has 2 losses, to Sasso and Bryant. Bartlett has 3, to the very same Bryant, Diakomihalis, and Van Brill. Murin has a very good win against Thomas, while Bartlett has beaten Parco. Neither guy wins big (Murin has two majors while Bartlett has one major and one fall), meaning scores a lot of points. On paper it looks like a one to two point bout. Anything can happen on the mat, but chalk doesn't back up a strong favorite. Interested in hearing more.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

Murin has looked better than Beau this year. It's okay to admit it. I wouldn't call that match a tossup like I did at the beginning of the year. I don't think anyone would be shocked if Beau wins but Murin has differentiated himself at this point.

Has he really? He shares a loss to Bryant and hasn’t really separated himself from anyone else?

 

[NittanyChris]

Murin has looked better than Beau this year. It's okay to admit it. I wouldn't call that match a tossup like I did at the beginning of the year. I don't think anyone would be shocked if Beau wins but Murin has differentiated himself at this point.

Respectfully disagree. Murin is 6-2 this year with his best win being over YaYa. Beau is 10-3 with his best win over Parco. Beau was Parco's only loss this year and YaYa has 4 losses. Parco has been much more impressive than YaYa.

Both lost to Manzona Bryant, though Beau lost by 1 point to him and Murin lost by 2 points. Their records are actually very comparable based on their achievements this year only.

 

[McScoreley]

It's possible I'm overvaluing a win over Yahya and a close loss over Sasso. Bartlett has a close loss to Sasso and a SV loss to Yahya also.

Yahya is hot and cold sometimes also.

 

[dicemen99]

I will be surprised at nothing with this match. Not a single result at any weight except 184 and 157. My thoughts:

125 - No idea at all but if forced I'd lean Ayala just because of the venue. Hes got a tank and is very aggressive - Drews matches are usually close. A stall call could prove the difference and I would think Iowa gets one in Carver that they don't get anywhere else.

133 You have to favor Roman but if they wrestle 10 times ADS probably grabs an early TD in a couple which gives him a shot.

141 - Eierman hasn't looked great this year but is still winning. Nick is coming off an illness. Haven't seen either in top form this year so IDK.

149 - I have to lean Murin here. He may be even better at pulling matches out late than Beau.

157 - KY is not wrestling great but don't see anyone on our roster capable of a win here. Hope I'm wrong but...

165 Marinelli. Although its probably close late.

174 Id like to think Carter but again it's probably close late. And Carver will be screaming for a stall.

184 - Only weight I cant envision a loss

197 - Tossup to me. Slight lean to Warner as I don't think Max gets RT on him.

285 - The way they are wrestling you have to favor Kerk. Fortunately I think that Cassioppi no longer has running him off the mat in his arsenal which is how he would win this.

I would be very surprised if Iowa doesn't win four matches here. And the fact that we have a couple of guys that tend to wrestle very close matches - Iowa is going to get a couple of extra points just because of referee human nature that could flip a couple others.

Not sure what will end up happening tonight but it will likely be entertaining. And it probably won't amount to a hill of beans in March.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

I agree ChiPack. And tbh, 149 is one of seven bouts (imo) that are close enough to call toss-ups. It's duals like tonight's that the wrestlers should embrace, and is one reason they went to their respective schools (insert Bo quote here ). Hard to keep one's emotions/energy in check at CHA, but that's what our guys must do. Frankly, not concerned about that with the leadership the team has, but adrenaline rushes followed by gassing can happen. Looking forward to a great dual. Let's lace 'em up, and may the best guy win!!

It was interesting to hear during a media conference that Warner had never seen the match between Kemerer and Mark Hall. He was told to stay away and if I remember right, Mark Hall was pretty amped up during earlier matches. There will be 15,000 crazy wrestling fans there tonight and an adrenaline dump is very likley.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

I will be surprised at nothing with this match. Not a single result at any weight except 184 and 157. My thoughts:

125 - No idea at all but if forced I'd lean Ayala just because of the venue. Hes got a tank and is very aggressive - Drews matches are usually close. A stall call could prove the difference and I would think Iowa gets one in Carver that they don't get anywhere else.

133 You have to favor Roman but if they wrestle 10 times ADS probably grabs an early TD in a couple which gives him a shot.

141 - Eierman hasn't looked great this year but is still winning. Nick is coming off an illness. Haven't seen either in top form this year so IDK.

149 - I have to lean Murin here. He may be even better at pulling matches out late than Beau.

157 - KY is not wrestling great but don't see anyone on our roster capable of a win here. Hope I'm wrong but...

165 Marinelli. Although its probably close late.

174 Id like to think Carter but again it's probably close late. And Carver will be screaming for a stall.

184 - Only weight I cant envision a loss

197 - Tossup to me. Slight lean to Warner as I don't think Max gets RT on him.

285 - The way they are wrestling you have to favor Kerk. Fortunately I think that Cassioppi no longer has running him off the mat in his arsenal which is how he would win this.

I would be very surprised if Iowa doesn't win four matches here. And the fact that we have a couple of guys that tend to wrestle very close matches - Iowa is going to get a couple of extra points just because of referee human nature that could flip a couple others.

Not sure what will end up happening tonight but it will likely be entertaining. And it probably won't amount to a hill of beans in March.

Pretty much agree with everything you say. Neutral site I would take Penn State - in Carver with what a crowd can do (to officials too) Iowa could pull the upset.

 

[RealMicah]

I will be surprised at nothing with this match. Not a single result at any weight except 184 and 157. My thoughts:

125 - No idea at all but if forced I'd lean Ayala just because of the venue. Hes got a tank and is very aggressive - Drews matches are usually close. A stall call could prove the difference and I would think Iowa gets one in Carver that they don't get anywhere else.

133 You have to favor Roman but if they wrestle 10 times ADS probably grabs an early TD in a couple which gives him a shot.

141 - Eierman hasn't looked great this year but is still winning. Nick is coming off an illness. Haven't seen either in top form this year so IDK.

149 - I have to lean Murin here. He may be even better at pulling matches out late than Beau.

157 - KY is not wrestling great but don't see anyone on our roster capable of a win here. Hope I'm wrong but...

165 Marinelli. Although its probably close late.

174 Id like to think Carter but again it's probably close late. And Carver will be screaming for a stall.

184 - Only weight I cant envision a loss

197 - Tossup to me. Slight lean to Warner as I don't think Max gets RT on him.

285 - The way they are wrestling you have to favor Kerk. Fortunately I think that Cassioppi no longer has running him off the mat in his arsenal which is how he would win this.

I would be very surprised if Iowa doesn't win four matches here. And the fact that we have a couple of guys that tend to wrestle very close matches - Iowa is going to get a couple of extra points just because of referee human nature that could flip a couple others.

Not sure what will end up happening tonight but it will likely be entertaining. And it probably won't amount to a hill of beans in March.

Agree with all these. I think stall calls against PSU could be the deciding factor in 125 and 149.

 

[jmadden1998]

I can't imagine Bartlett losing to Murin, I've tried...very hard, but I just can't do it.

Did you imagine him losing to Van Brill?

 

[RoarLions1]

I will be surprised at nothing with this match. Not a single result at any weight except 184 and 157. My thoughts:

125 - No idea at all but if forced I'd lean Ayala just because of the venue. Hes got a tank and is very aggressive - Drews matches are usually close. A stall call could prove the difference and I would think Iowa gets one in Carver that they don't get anywhere else.

133 You have to favor Roman but if they wrestle 10 times ADS probably grabs an early TD in a couple which gives him a shot.

141 - Eierman hasn't looked great this year but is still winning. Nick is coming off an illness. Haven't seen either in top form this year so IDK.

149 - I have to lean Murin here. He may be even better at pulling matches out late than Beau.

157 - KY is not wrestling great but don't see anyone on our roster capable of a win here. Hope I'm wrong but...

165 Marinelli. Although its probably close late.

174 Id like to think Carter but again it's probably close late. And Carver will be screaming for a stall.

184 - Only weight I cant envision a loss

197 - Tossup to me. Slight lean to Warner as I don't think Max gets RT on him.

285 - The way they are wrestling you have to favor Kerk. Fortunately I think that Cassioppi no longer has running him off the mat in his arsenal which is how he would win this.

I would be very surprised if Iowa doesn't win four matches here. And the fact that we have a couple of guys that tend to wrestle very close matches - Iowa is going to get a couple of extra points just because of referee human nature that could flip a couple others.

Not sure what will end up happening tonight but it will likely be entertaining. And it probably won't amount to a hill of beans in March.

Fair and balanced. Well done. And as of now, even has a "like" from and Iowa fan.

 

[AgSurfer]

I'll go out on a limb here. I'm predicting that the team with the most points at the end of the dual will be the winner. Of course if Rivera is the ref, all bets are off.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

I'll go out on a limb here. I'm predicting that the team with the most points at the end of the dual will be the winner. Of course if Rivera is the ref, all bets are off.

Just for sake of discussion - Rivera is not all that popular with Iowa either.

 

[NittanyChris]

Just for sake of discussion - Rivera is not all that popular with Iowa either.

Just praying it's not Rivera. We don't need his incompetence interfering with a great dual.

 

[slushhead]

We know it will be Rivera. Both fan bases deserve it, if not just for their perceptions of his performance.

This thing must be tainted by perceived controversy, or else one board must concede to another. The Message Board Gods will not allow that.

 

[RoarLions1]

Am I the only one that wouldn't mind Rivera?

 

[AndEEss]

More and more whispers that Ayala won't be going for Iowa tonight.

 

[smalls103]

Am I the only one that wouldn't mind Rivera?

yes

 

[Cstroke]

Are you drinking already RoarLions1?

 

[slushhead]

yes

Wrong again.

 

[RoarLions1]

Are you drinking already RoarLions1?

Noep, cmompeletley sber n in cotrroll of al ymfcaltees>

 

[donboy6499]

I can't imagine Bartlett losing to Murin, I've tried...very hard, but I just can't do it.

It’s like, it should happen, it makes sense with all conventional thinking and wisdom, but then actually envisioning Max Murin beating BB just produces a black screen in my mind.
Not even sure nature allows for it.

 

[hlstone]

Am I the only one that wouldn't mind Rivera?

I think Rivera is a fine ref. I just don't like how he makes himself the center of attention.

 

[slushhead]

It’s like, it should happen, it makes sense with all conventional thinking and wisdom, but then actually envisioning Max Murin beating BB just produces a black screen in my mind.
Not even sure nature allows for it.

I actually think Murin is solid here, but the headlock throw(s) he got hit with late last season (I think by Lovett and/or another guy) is my one reservation to pick against Bartlett.

 

[PSUer1989]

It’s like, it should happen, it makes sense with all conventional thinking and wisdom, but then actually envisioning Max Murin beating BB just produces a black screen in my mind.
Not even sure nature allows for it.

 

[slushhead]

I think Rivera is a fine ref. I just don't like how he makes himself the center of attention.

One might say the fans make him the center of attention. From my seat, he seems to go about his business confidently but quietly. No MLB umpire stuff from him.

 

[mcpat]

Respectfully disagree. Murin is 6-2 this year with his best win being over YaYa. Beau is 10-3 with his best win over Parco. Beau was Parco's only loss this year and YaYa has 4 losses. Parco has been much more impressive than YaYa.

Both lost to Manzona Bryant, though Beau lost by 1 point to him and Murin lost by 2 points. Their records are actually very comparable based on their achievements this year only.

Same thoughts. MVB is now 14-1 and I think most of us think BB won that 14 min match. BB is having a much better season than folks are giving him credit.

 

[jmadden1998]

Same thoughts. MVB is now 14-1 and I think most of us think BB won that 14 min match. BB is having a much better season than folks are giving him credit.

 

[mcpat]

Miscellaneous thoughts:

- If NS couldn’t get a TD on DH, why would anyone think DA will if he goes?

- Something is up with ADS and I like RBY even if there weren’t

- Ditto JE against NL

- BB is having a much better season than he gets credit. No one beats Yianni this year. He went 14 mins with a 14-1 MVB. Lost one other match, 6-5 to a guy that beat Murin 7-5

- KY is the favorite to win at 157, but I concede nothing to someone that is 6-5 in D1 on the season.

- the Bull also hasn’t been right. Berge, for the first time in years, is right. Did you know they have identical ncaa tournament winning percentages for the last two tournaments?

- Kem is great. But a hurt Kem against Michael Myers is in trouble.

- No contest at 184.

- Dean has wrestled better against the far tougher schedule.

- Kerk has looked far better than slim Tony.

 

[Truth_Talk]

4 1/2 hours out...rumor mill churning at high speed

 

[NittanyChris]

4 1/2 hours out...rumor mill churning at high speed

Anything other than no Ayala?

 

[slushhead]

@johnstownsteel
Swafford?

 

[a_mshaffer]

my predictions and thoughts
- Hild should win but I give Ayala a 49% chance due to his O. Hild to beat backup - high %
- RBY is one of my clear favorites, but then think about it - this is a top 3 showdown!
- Nick should win but anything can happen here
- BB is my pick especially if he gets an early TD. I think he'll get another one if Murin starts having to get aggressive when wrestling behind. Key is the first TD for me. Murin wins if he gets the first TD
- Pa boy will win
- Not sure if BB will be able to finish as the Bull won't open much but when the Bull decides to go (Shoot) he's pretty powerful
- Lean Cstarr due to the injury stigma - hope it isn't a one score match - that evens things up a lot
- AB - highest probability in my book
- Dean - only because I've seen him more - concerned about the size difference
- Kirk but could go either way as Cass has done it before - again - top5 showdown

Thus I can see a lot of these matches going either way. It appears we are the favorites but anything can happen. I think Iowa comes out smokin'...Going to be fun!