I am thinking it is also. We'll know by mid next week as we get a week's worth of data going on vaccines. but makes sense with cases going up that a few people on the fence are now going for it.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
I am thinking it is also. We'll know by mid next week as we get a week's worth of data going on vaccines. but makes sense with cases going up that a few people on the fence are now going for it.
Sure. The below wasn't the original post that you took issue with, and it is exactly what you just posted above.
Anyone can go back to page 94 and follow along and read all the relevant posts and see how deceptive and wrong you really are on this topic.
0.67M shots yesterday so total up to 341.0M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.55M. 86.5% of shots administered is the national average, 56.6% of population with 1+ dose (72.9% of the adult population), 49.0% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 188 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 163 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
36,779 positives reported yesterday compared to 41,275 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 49,279.
Fatality was 151 reported yesterday compared to 189 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 260.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 23,616 compared to one week ago 16,960 up 39.2%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,197 compared to one week ago 3.016 up 39.1%.
Some understanding of the Israel vs UK comparison has emerged. Recall that the UK adopted a strategy to delay the second dose in order to get as many people vaccinated as possible. This resulted in many people getting the second vax 8 - 12 weeks later. Israel followed the protocol developed by Pfizer, which called for doses 3 weeks apart. It now appears that the longer interval between the first and second doses provides significantly better protection against infection and symptomatic disease. The immunity also appears to be more durable.
There are two main arms of the immune system, the innate and the specific. It appears innate immunity plays a significant role in protecting against this virus and may explain in part why children fare much better. Specific immunity is mainly divided into antibody ( B cell ) immunity and cell - mediated ( T cell ) immunity. As is the case with most vaccines, antibody levels decline with time. Cell mediated immunity is usually more durable but hard to measure.
The big question is whether this virus is going to evolve immune escape to where vaccines and previous infections offer little protection.
There are two main arms of the immune system, the innate and the specific. It appears innate immunity plays a significant role in protecting against this virus and may explain in part why children fare much better. Specific immunity is mainly divided into antibody ( B cell ) immunity and cell - mediated ( T cell ) immunity. As is the case with most vaccines, antibody levels decline with time. Cell mediated immunity is usually more durable but hard to measure.
The big question is whether this virus is going to evolve immune escape to where vaccines and previous infections offer little protection.
0.779M shots yesterday so total up to 341.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.59M. 86.5% of shots administered is the national average, 56.8% of population with 1+ dose (73.1% of the adult population), 49.1% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 188 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 163 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
13,818 positives reported yesterday compared to 34,212 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 46,505.
Fatality was 49 reported yesterday compared to 110 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 252.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 24,252 compared to one week ago 17,724 up 36.8%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,334 compared to one week ago 3,161 up 37.1%.
Note that Monday (Sunday reporting) is always very low and tomorrow and Wednesday those numbers get back filled in as all states report.
Also note the daily vaccine numbers are going up, delta variant definitely making some people go out and get vaccinated.
0.393M shots yesterday so total up to 342.2M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.59M. 86.5% of shots administered is the national average, 56.8% of population with 1+ dose (73.2% of the adult population), 49.1% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 189 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 163 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
35,816 positives reported yesterday compared to 35,061 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 54,082.
Fatality was 132 reported yesterday compared to 139 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 261.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 24,257 compared to one week ago 18,528 up 30.9%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,354 compared to one week ago 3,273 up 33.0%.
So positives and deaths are way down compared to the seven day average but hospitalizations are way up?
It would be interesting to know what is inside the numbers. Younger and “ healthier “ people being hospitalized and surviving would be one guess.
The several people i know who have been hospitalized are between 30 and mid 60s and have all survived.
Remember that many states don't report daily so the daily number versus the average doesn't make sense some time. Florida did not report today so add probably 10-15K for them alone and then the number fall more back in line. Due to this daily reporting of some state only certain days per week, almost just have to look at the 7 day average trend line sometimes. For hospitalization, they report daily and from what i understand come directly from the hospitals so there is no lax in reporting ever (except for Sunday which is typically a little lower day than the other 6 days). So in reality, the hospital number is probably the most accurate day to day number on what is going on as they must report.
As for the hospitalizations. Interesting to note that the fatality number has not really gone up that much, hopefully it stays that way as we know that fatality typically trails by 2-4 weeks.
Thank you for posting this data every day. You have saved me daily trips to worldometers.info and added more information to follow. I appreciate the effort you have put into this and your occasional commentary as we all try to make sense of the limited (and flawed) data that is publicly available.
I have a question on the percentage of adults vaccinated that you show. Is this calculated as the number of fully vaccinated people divided by the number of adults? I saw you reference this statistic today and have wondered about it but never asked. Since some of the fully-vaccinated people are not adults (OK, some of the adults aren't "adults" either but that's another issue), the percentage of adults would be lower. If you are taking that into account already, that's great.
(Note: No criticism intended in any way. I just want to understand where it comes from.)
0.395M shots yesterday so total up to 342.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.59M. 86.8% of shots administered is the national average, 56.9% of population with 1+ dose (73.3% of the adult population), 49.2% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 189 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 163 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
61,581 positives reported yesterday compared to 47,839 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 56,686.
Fatality was 339 reported yesterday compared to 275 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 277.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 27,802 compared to one week ago 19,417 up 43.2%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,981 compared to one week ago 3,376 up 47.5%.
Well, any hope we hit a plateau in this spike is gone. Big numbers today, hospitalizations way up as is daily cases and Florida did not report. Tomorrow when Florida reports could easily be up in the 75k range for the day.
I'm curious of your numbers...of the 61,581 positives number you posted, does this only include positive cases for unvaccinated individuals? The CDC changed their reporting of breakthrough cases in May, so I have to assume your data accounts for that.
0.71M shots yesterday so total up to 342.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.615M. 86.7% of shots administered is the national average, 57.2% of population with 1+ dose (73.7% of the adult population), 49.4% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 190 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 164 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
92,485 positives reported yesterday compared to 64,940 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 71,781.
Fatality was 398 reported yesterday compared to394 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 303.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 31,148 compared to one week ago 21,464 up 45.1%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 5,475 compared to one week ago 3,742 up 46.3%.
So obviously cases really exploding now. Lot of anecdotal evidence of vaccine breakthrough positive cases. not sure where and when this ends as UK the last few days is going back up on positives. Note that we are also now at a higher daily positive case load then we were in the spike in April.
I saw this about vaccinations by age:
https://www.vox.com/22587443/covid-19-vaccine-refusal-hesitancy-variant-delta-cases-rate
80% of the Covid deaths are people over age 65 but 80% of those people are vaccinated.
There are approximately 80 million youngsters under age 18 but most are not eligible to be vaccinated. Regardless, this age group only accounts for 1/2 of 1% of all Covid deaths. Is this age group suddenly a problem?
It seems to me that the problem is in the middle age group of approximately 100 million people where only 50% have been vaccinated. That leaves 50 million (15% of the population) at risk. Certainly a problem but nowhere near the problems we've experienced in the past.
What am I missing?
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I saw this about vaccinations by age:
80% of the Covid deaths are people over age 65 but 80% of those people are vaccinated.
There are approximately 80 million youngsters under age 18 but most are not eligible to be vaccinated. Regardless, this age group only accounts for 1/2 of 1% of all Covid deaths. Is this age group suddenly a problem?
It seems to me that the problem is in the middle age group of approximately 100 million people where only 50% have been vaccinated. That leaves 50 million (15% of the population) at risk. Certainly a problem but nowhere near the problems we've experienced in the past.
What am I missing?
the issue isn't the un vaccinated in the USA, just look at the numbers. 210M people over 18 in the USA of which about 70% are vaccinated so 60M not vaccinated. the estimated world population is 7.8 billion people of which about 70% is over 18 so 5.5B. About 2 Billion people have been vaccinated. So about 3.5 Billion adults not vaccinated of which 60M are americans. that is 1.7% of the un vaccinated is Americans. that doesn't take into account of that 2 Billion vaccinated, about 1 billion is chinese vaccines which we know are not very good.
the point, the un vaccinated in the USA are not causing variants. The variants are coming from India, China, Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa that have huge populations of poor people who will never get vaccinated as their country logistics make it almost impossible. point being, this thing is going to continue to mutate and be around for a long time. basically until the entire world has vaccine or natural immunity.
The problem is that a positive test counts as a case. Studies have found less than 50% of adults (and much less in children) who tested positive actually had enough virus that could replicate. And that was before we had a majority vaccinatedI saw this about vaccinations by age:
80% of the Covid deaths are people over age 65 but 80% of those people are vaccinated.
There are approximately 80 million youngsters under age 18 but most are not eligible to be vaccinated. Regardless, this age group only accounts for 1/2 of 1% of all Covid deaths. Is this age group suddenly a problem?
It seems to me that the problem is in the middle age group of approximately 100 million people where only 50% have been vaccinated. That leaves 50 million (15% of the population) at risk. Certainly a problem but nowhere near the problems we've experienced in the past.
What am I missing?
I read where the virus replicates about a billion times in a human body during an average infection. So, to think that there isn’t a constant supply of variants from everywhere and anywhere the virus is replicating is wishful thinking.
0.71M shots yesterday so total up to 342.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.657M. 86.4% of shots administered is the national average, 57.5% of population with 1+ dose (74.1% of the adult population), 49.5% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 191 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 164 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
51,898 positives reported yesterday compared to 65,967 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 74,986.
Fatality was 241 reported yesterday compared to 233 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 321.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 34,769 compared to one week ago 23,822 up 46.0%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 6,071 compared to one week ago 4,203 up 44.4%.
Florida pretty crazy right now., 7 day average is 15,817 which is the same peak values they had in January. A month ago they were at 1,600 per day. Incredible explosive positive growth. The big January peak took a 3 month to build up to that value, now it was done in 4 weeks.
I was drawing no conclusions. The time on this board, recently, is alarming. Edit. I wasn’t looking at the daily, but the seven day rolling
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7 day rolling is also not the greatest on Sunday and Monday reporting as so many states don’t report or report partial numbers. So really cannot compare where we are on daily positives on Tuesday through Saturday reporting. Hospital numbers are the best daily metric and they are not slowing down yet unfortunately
But that is true of every week. They contain the statistical catch up data. So comparatively are meaningful in terms of weekly trends
You would think but they are not. As when states report the data later in week it back fills in the Sunday and Monday data. So it is comparing a Sunday data point with no reported data to last Sunday which data has already been back filled into. Hence, even week to week is not comparable in those days.
Well if that is the case, then there is no baseline And the data is meaningless until you expand out to a monthly report; which may contain a better baseline to make apt comparisons
I agree with Cletus, look at hospitalizations as they are reported daily to various tracking services by region and nationally. This one from John’s Hopkins breaks down ICU and in patient by week. Simple.
Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
If you go back in this thread and look at the hospitalization data, there are times where the cdc uses 'assumed' (my words) data if they do not have the needed information. That comes from the linked to cdc website, not me.
Baseline is Tuesday through Saturday as on those days most states are reporting. Reporting on Sunday and Monday is about useless. So you CAN make comparisons on tuesday-saturday, just not on Sunday and Monday.
My guess is that we will see a peak early next and then see the cases flatline for a week and then start to come back down.
0.816M shots yesterday so total up to 346.4M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.662M. 86.6% of shots administered is the national average, 57.7% of population with 1+ dose (74.3% of the adult population), 49.6% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 191 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 165 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
21,768 positives reported yesterday compared to 54,546 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 70,607.
Fatality was 64 reported yesterday compared to 135 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 311.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 35,457 compared to one week ago 25,141 up 41.0%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 6,244 compared to one week ago 4,436 up 40.8%.
As was noted yesterday, today's numbers for daily positives and fatalities should not be taken as real. Many states don't report anymore on Sunday data hence the week over week and 7 day running averages are not correct. This is so because once those states do report, they backfill in the data for the day's they don't report.
One thing to is definitely seeing an uptick in vaccine rate, daily average was slightly above 500k at beginning of month and now up to 662k per day.
On a separate note, was down at the beach this weekend. started seeing some masking on the boardwalk. I would say maybe in the 5% range, not as much as I actually thought I would see. Contrast this to a month ago when I was down there and saw about nobody with a mask. So some voluntarily creeping back to the mask. I will say that a majority of the adults I saw with masks on did have on N95 masks, so at least the mask was doing something worthwhile and points toward people that are really scared/concerned with Covid and being educated enough to where the N95 mask.
Was in grocery store yesterday.......W Pa........and saw several people with masks, including some kids under twelve.
yeah, all the people I saw that were adults had their kids masked up. didn't see any kids masked with their parents not masked. it pains me to see little kids masked up, just feel bad for the kids.
Was in NOVA over the weekend. Many are masking up in grocery and department stores. More were wearing masks then not wearing masks. Outside on streets of Arlington, less masked then not masked.
And on a very sad note a 2nd PSU student has died from Covid: https://triblive.com/news/pennsylva...te-university-dies-of-covid-19-complications/
And on a very sad note a 2nd PSU student has died from Covid: https://triblive.com/news/pennsylva...te-university-dies-of-covid-19-complications/
sounds like a horrible covid death, 3 months long battle. didn't mention if he had any co-morbidity issues before contracting covid.
In no way do I want to diminish the tragic circumstances of his passing nor the grief being felt by his family and friends.
But, I do want to point out the "click bait" style of journalism these days. Technically, yes, he was a "Penn State" student. However ...
"Patel had been living at home and attending classes remotely last spring when he fell ill".
So, in other words, his status of being a "Penn State student" apparently had nothing to do with his contracting the virus, unless he caught it attending a university-sponsored/related activity in Philadelphia as part of his enrollment as a PSU student (which does not appear to be the situation).
yes, being a penn state student had nothing to do with catching covid. 600,000 people have died in the USA, he is just another person in that group clinically speaking.
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