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OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates

I think it will very interesting what happens here this month of February, do we see hospitalizations (what do cases mean right now with so many at home tests) go below their historical low points as the amount of natural immunity out there is so much higher. It is also going to take until end of February until we start to see marked decrease in daily fatality so even though cases and hospitalizations will be way down, we will still hear the talking heads just pivot to 'But we still have thousands of people dying every day' as a way to continue to push the narrative.

although I do see more people now shedding masks and talking about getting back to normal, the huge Omicron spike is still fresh in people's minds. It is going to take a month before the numbers are down, people start to remove their masks in higher numbers, people don't know friends/family/co-workers who are getting Covid, etc...I am hoping that what we are seeing now with some people being down with the pandemic just grows in February into March as the numbers continue to go down.
That’s the question, Cletus.

How many people have almost full natural immunity?

If our awesome government wasn’t shit, we’d have a weekly seroprevalence stat published.

It would take a sample size of maybe a thousand from blood donors to know with reasonable certainty.

Then we could see when we are going to be done.
 
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That’s the question, Cletus.

How many people have almost full natural immunity?

If our awesome government wasn’t shit, we’d have a weekly seroprevalence stat published.

It would take a sample size of maybe a thousand from blood donors to know with reasonable certainty.

Then we could see when we are going to be done.
Agreed. Despite two, three and four shots for 85% of those at risk (over 50) we have deaths on a par with the worst months of the pandemic. with masks, lockdowns and shots we haven't really improved measurably. States that were strict have done no better than states that weren't.

People are about to explode. There is a full-fledged opportunity for revolt in Canada and Australia. More unrest in the rest of the western world.

next two months will tell the tale of Pandemic 2020.
 
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So you are actually 100% uncertain.
I know who he has had on his show (e.g. Robert Malone) and I know why Malone shouldn't be listened to.
Sometimes having an opposition view seems to be met with moved goal posts. Now average people need to familiar with all the scientists and researchers before they can listen to their viewpoint?
Opposing viewpoints are fine. Again, policy decisions can be debated. Science, on the other hand, is not debated or decided on talk shows. It is challenged, vetted and articulated in the peer reviewed literature.
Seems likely you wouldn't state this if it was about the viewpoint you share.
I think my viewpoints are pretty diverse on this topic (i.e. I'm not in the Saint Fauci Who Can Do No Wrong camp).
Again, this feels like a moved goal post. How does one debate the science in your opinion?
As I said above, science isn't debated on talk shows. Science is challenged by new science. This is done in the peer reviewed literature (and to a lesser extent at scientific conferences). If the "new science" holds up under peer review, then it becomes the standard until something else replaces it. That is one of the reasons science is so amazing; it is constantly evolving and improving.
If science is the basis for policy, then different interpretations mean different things. The science has changed.
The science has changed! Which is great. If the science didn't change, we'd be static (and screwed). Again, this is what the peer reviewed literature is for. And policies will (should) change as the science changes.
The virus mutates. You can't vaccinate future versions that don't exist.
It does mutate, but scientists think you CAN vaccinate for future versions that don't exist yet.
 
Agreed. Despite two, three and four shots for 85% of those at risk (over 50) we have deaths on a par with the worst months of the pandemic. with masks, lockdowns and shots we haven't really improved measurably. States that were strict have done no better than states that weren't.

People are about to explode. There is a full-fledged opportunity for revolt in Canada and Australia. More unrest in the rest of the western world.

next two months will tell the tale of Pandemic 2020.
I’m just waiting for someone to tell me how hard it would actshually be to get that data.

Sampling bias, testing errors…but it is always tough to do something when you don’t want to do it.
 
We settle it via open, fairly moderated debate.
Science is never settled via debate. It is settled by new research that has undergone the peer review process.
When the political scientists debated real scientists, in a real forum, it was obvious that they wouldn’t do it again.
What debate was this? Honestly interested in a link.
Because the public came away with the correct opinion that the gubmint scientists were lying.
Which government scientists are lying about science?
 
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Science is never settled via debate. It is settled by new research that has undergone the peer review process.

What debate was this? Honestly interested in a link.

Which government scientists are lying about science?
do you consider Fauci a govt scientist, if so, he lied and has misled about science a few times.
 
Science is never settled via debate. It is settled by new research that has undergone the peer review process.

What debate was this? Honestly interested in a link.

Which government scientists are lying about science?
My fault. I meant to mention global warming scientists having a publicized debate. Surely you saw that beat down with Lindzen.

Peer review and journal restrictions kept the real, honest scientists from publishing, and allowed Michael Mann to show a warming rate that no rational person would believe.

Anyone who tries to imply or leave you to infer that the masking guidance changed because of Omicron is lying. Particle distribution and fluid mechanics involved are identical.
 
That’s the question, Cletus.

How many people have almost full natural immunity?

If our awesome government wasn’t shit, we’d have a weekly seroprevalence stat published.

It would take a sample size of maybe a thousand from blood donors to know with reasonable certainty.

Then we could see when we are going to be done.
we are never going to get a natural immunity answer. The powers that be already put out a hit job in the beginning of the pandemic that natural immunity wasn't any good (defying any real science) so we know that they won't backtrack on that statement. Both because they won't backtrack on about anything they said, and the underlying reason that they paid people to put our false science and smear those that said natural immunity was equal have not changed to my knowledge. We are seeing some other countries talk about this, but it will never be enough to have the current CDC change their recommendations.

This whole pandemic only becomes an endemic (who would have guessed a few years ago most people would know those two words) when the prevailing political winds shift such that continuing on in the current fashion like we have been doing for the last 12 months is no longer politically a winning idea and therefore the politicians want to change in order to stay in office. Reality is that is where we are right now as horrible as that is. The good thing is that more of the world is starting to object to similar policies and polling in the USA shows that continued Covid mandates and lockdowns, etc...is also not a winning platform, hence the recent slight shift in the democrats talking points.
 
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we are never going to get a natural immunity answer. The powers that be already put out a hit job in the beginning of the pandemic that natural immunity wasn't any good (defying any real science) so we know that they won't backtrack on that statement. Both because they won't backtrack on about anything they said, and the underlying reason that they paid people to put our false science and smear those that said natural immunity was equal have not changed to my knowledge. We are seeing some other countries talk about this, but it will never be enough to have the current CDC change their recommendations.

This whole pandemic only becomes an endemic (who would have guessed a few years ago most people would know those two words) when the prevailing political winds shift such that continuing on in the current fashion like we have been doing for the last 12 months is no longer politically a winning idea and therefore the politicians want to change in order to stay in office. Reality is that is where we are right now as horrible as that is. The good thing is that more of the world is starting to object to similar policies and polling in the USA shows that continued Covid mandates and lockdowns, etc...is also not a winning platform, hence the recent slight shift in the democrats talking points.
agreed...and people are beginning to revolt. Even in heavy mask mandate places, I see mask-wearing down precipitously.
 

those two articles just confirm what people have been saying for months. Omicron is much more transmissible but much less virulent/deadly. N95 masks are the only masks that really do anything.
 
those two articles just confirm what people have been saying for months. Omicron is much more transmissible but much less virulent/deadly. N95 masks are the only masks that really do anything.

What people, the ones you want to listen to? Which people do you want to pretend Mr. Dunning that are speaking for all? Yes N95 masks are by far the best but to say the other masks offered no protection at all is misleading. People still say masks do nothing at all....and that isn't correct. Buy hey good hyperbole is fun to gaslight the FN viewers with.
 
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those two articles just confirm what people have been saying for months. Omicron is much more transmissible but much less virulent/deadly. N95 masks are the only masks that really do anything.
..and, of course, those issues change the entire risk/value relationship with masks, lockdowns, vaccinations, etc.
 
I am neither defending nor criticizing the CDC. I will however point out that constructing useful policy for a novel virus for which our scientific understanding is rapidly evolving AND is mutating at a significant rate is challenging to say the least.

My primary concern is when peer reviewed science (not CDC policy) clearly shows one thing (e.g. "vaccines improve immune response") and Keyboard Warriors shout it down based on anything but science (e.g. "vaccines don't work").
UNC.
I may be wrong but it seems there aren't really that many that dispute the vaccine effectiveness as it relates to hosp and death. There are some, but most would agree with your point. It is possible to hold that view and still think masks that aren't N95 are of little value, that vaccines for the young and healthy may not be worth risk that natural immunity is real and better than the vaccines.
As to your comments on it being a Novel virus I might beg to differ. If you refer to VE or therapeautics I could agree, mask or no mask natural immunity etc these viruses act like any airborne virus and there is little novel about them.
 
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Not sure how you transitioned from what I wrote to your reply (maybe you replied to the wrong person?)

For the record, I am of the opinion (having considered the evidence) that the virus was released from the lab (accidentally) but was probably not made in the lab (although it is not impossible). The people who originally shouted down any non-animal vector theory had worked with that lab before (and were defending it) or were concerned about national security issues (i.e. officially accusing china of this without solid proof is dicey).

On the other hand, I think there is real danger to allowing misinformation to be spread on the internet when there is a public health emergency involved. I'm not sure the proper way to manage that (there is obviously a fine line between fact checking and censorship)
Help me understand something I may have missed. Re not made [or put under GoF]. The last i heard almost all viruses go from bat to an intermediary to human. To my knowledge no other animals have ever been identified. Additionally all other coronaviruses when they finally were transferred to humans spread very slowly. [that is the reason why Redfield and others said had they known it was engineered they would have acted differently. I clearly could have missed something but what makes you think it was originally from nature?
 
What people, the ones you want to listen to? Which people do you want to pretend Mr. Dunning that are speaking for all? Yes N95 masks are by far the best but to say the other masks offered no protection at all is misleading. People still say masks do nothing at all....and that isn't correct. Buy hey good hyperbole is fun to gaslight the FN viewers with.
other types of masks offer minimal protection to the way Covid is actually transmissible. Any mask offers up more protection then no mask but doesn't mean that a mandate to wear them all the time is the right way to go. If we are going down the path of something is better than nothing, then there are way, way, way more things to look at before non N95 masks that should be the focus such as proper weight management, good eating and sleeping habits, exercise and diet, and a wealth of things that make the human body's own defense system much more robust before the incremental advantage of a cloth mask is where we end up.

I mean if I walked around in a Kevlar body suit then the chance I have a severe issue from a gunshot or knife wound go down so let's all wear them. If I walk around with a football helmet on my head, the much less chance I have a concussion so let's all wear football helmets. If I wear steel toed shoes there is much less chance that I have my toes crushed so let's all where them. If I walk around in a neon safety vest much less chance I get accidentally hit by a car so let's mandate them to be worn at all times. See how it works.
 
we are never going to get a natural immunity answer. The powers that be already put out a hit job in the beginning of the pandemic that natural immunity wasn't any good (defying any real science) so we know that they won't backtrack on that statement. Both because they won't backtrack on about anything they said, and the underlying reason that they paid people to put our false science and smear those that said natural immunity was equal have not changed to my knowledge. We are seeing some other countries talk about this, but it will never be enough to have the current CDC change their recommendations.

This whole pandemic only becomes an endemic (who would have guessed a few years ago most people would know those two words) when the prevailing political winds shift such that continuing on in the current fashion like we have been doing for the last 12 months is no longer politically a winning idea and therefore the politicians want to change in order to stay in office. Reality is that is where we are right now as horrible as that is. The good thing is that more of the world is starting to object to similar policies and polling in the USA shows that continued Covid mandates and lockdowns, etc...is also not a winning platform, hence the recent slight shift in the democrats talking points.
IMO that happens in the March 1st State of the Union. Covid is a hinderance not a help at this point to the administration, so as Omicron fades DJ says we did 400 million jabs and ordered 500 million test kits so victory is ours.
 
My fault. I meant to mention global warming scientists having a publicized debate. Surely you saw that beat down with Lindzen.
I don't really follow climate change "debates" that closely, so no, I didn't see that. You can send me a link and I'll look at it with an open mind.
Peer review and journal restrictions kept the real, honest scientists from publishing, and allowed Michael Mann to show a warming rate that no rational person would believe.
As a former journal editor, I strongly disagree with this statement.
Anyone who tries to imply or leave you to infer that the masking guidance changed because of Omicron is lying. Particle distribution and fluid mechanics involved are identical.
I agree with this statement.
 
I'm not sure any scientists have said that. I think policy makers have said that. And I've been skeptical of masks since day 1 because I've publish on aerosols and I know how they behave.
Ok so Fauci and CDC director are policy makers not scientists? If so okay
 
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I don't really follow climate change "debates" that closely, so no, I didn't see that. You can send me a link and I'll look at it with an open mind.

As a former journal editor, I strongly disagree with this statement.

I agree with this statement.
Look at this ridiculous censorship.

 
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Probably not, most people are going there for care that they can't get seen at a doctor. We already know at least half of hospitalizations are "with" covid. They'd still be there. We also know that by January the vaccines from July backward no longer did anything. What we do know is that had people been allowed to live their lives in the Summer of 2020 the number of naturally immune would have be huge and the last 2 surges never happen. After all natural immunity is at least 2.5x better then the vaccine.
Natural immunity is 2.5x better than the vaccine?

Hardly - even the CDCs number is more than 6x the vaccine, and other researchers have reported up to 27x.

You can bet that the CDC did everything they could to keep that multiplier under 10.


But back to the original point. Look at the UK and look at the USA.

The UK had a huge surge in infections, but not nearly the surge in deaths this time.

USA Ratio Deaths/Cases: 2000/750,000 or 1:375
UK Ratio Deaths/Cases: 260/150,000 or 1:570

Well, actually the case rates are not as strikingly different as I had thought. Anyway, there it is. OK does significantly better because their elderly population is almost completely vaxxed.

Covid-Cases-over-Time.png

Covid-Deaths-over-Time.png



UK-Daily-Cases.png


UK-Daily-Deaths.png
 
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Look at this ridiculous censorship.

I said this in another threat some time ago but I personally know a scientist who worked for the federal gov't and he along with 4 other scientists, had research conflicting most of the current climate change narrative. When presented their data was discredited by one of those types mentioned in the article. They eventually were bought out by the gov't, each given an early retirement at full benefits.
 
I said this in another threat some time ago but I personally know a scientist who worked for the federal gov't and he along with 4 other scientists, had research conflicting most of the current climate change narrative. When presented their data was discredited by one of those types mentioned in the article. They eventually were bought out by the gov't, each given an early retirement at full benefits.
The scariest part of COVID has not been the virus, IMHO. The scariest part is the lies the govt has fed us. Trying to get 3-year-olds vaccinated? OMG! Secondly, the shaming in the scientific community that has led to deplatforming. I don't say this lightly, reminiscent of tyrannical govts (China, Soveit Union, Cuba and yes, Nazi Germany). I have long been skeptical of the govt. More recently, the media. Very recently, academia. But this has also made me skeptical of the scientific community. Now more than ever, I think the individual is on his own.

Not once in my life have I seen censorship of anything other than porn and pedophilia work. I've never seen censorship end up on the "right side of history". Lets hope it doesn't this time either.
 
I'm not sure any scientists have said that. I think policy makers have said that. And I've been skeptical of masks since day 1 because I've publish on aerosols and I know how they behave.
the issue is policy makers are over ruling scientists on some things (look at the whole cloth mask issue), Fauci is thought of as a scientist and is actively going after anybody that disagrees with him, when some scientists did step up and say 'hey, what is going on here, this doesn't make sense and we need some debate on this', Fauci and the politicians shut them down with the help of social media. So in a Utopian world, what you are suggesting would occur but that is not reality of where we are at.
 
Natural immunity is 2.5x better than the vaccine?

Hardly - even the CDCs number is more than 6x the vaccine, and other researchers have reported up to 27x.

You can bet that the CDC did everything they could to keep that multiplier under 10.


But back to the original point. Look at the UK and look at the USA.

The UK had a huge surge in infections, but not nearly the surge in deaths this time.

USA Ratio Deaths/Cases: 2000/750,000 or 1:375
UK Ratio Deaths/Cases: 260/150,000 or 1:570

Well, actually the case rates are not as strikingly different as I had thought. Anyway, there it is. OK does significantly better because their elderly population is almost completely vaxxed.

Covid-Cases-over-Time.png

Covid-Deaths-over-Time.png



UK-Daily-Cases.png


UK-Daily-Deaths.png
do you know what level of home testing the UK has, as that has to figure into these type of ratios now.

I also wonder how the UK is handling 'with' versus 'of' Covid deaths.

the other interesting note is with Omicron being so contagious, that 6-10 week lag period between Europe seeing the surge and USA seeing the surge seems to have condenses now to a couple of weeks.
 
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the issue is policy makers are over ruling scientists on some things (look at the whole cloth mask issue), Fauci is thought of as a scientist and is actively going after anybody that disagrees with him, when some scientists did step up and say 'hey, what is going on here, this doesn't make sense and we need some debate on this', Fauci and the politicians shut them down with the help of social media. So in a Utopian world, what you are suggesting would occur but that is not reality of where we are at.
Yes...sadly. I really liked the guy, and wanted to like him. I cannot say for certain his motives. Did he really fund Wuhan? Is he aligned with the CCP due to their wide funding initiatives? Is he just political? I don't know. What I do know is that he took some incorrect positions early and despite overwhelming evidence later, would not back off of his initial position. From a 30,000 foot view, he was "all in" on drugs and did next to nothing to promote prevention and care.
 
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It’s pretty bad.

I remember when McAndrew censored my Covid posts.

I called him out on it and wouldn’t stop reposting.

Being the weasel he is, he banned me.

Of course, he had no idea whatsoever if I was right or wrong, being scientifically illiterate himself.
 
Natural immunity is 2.5x better than the vaccine?

Hardly - even the CDCs number is more than 6x the vaccine, and other researchers have reported up to 27x.

You can bet that the CDC did everything they could to keep that multiplier under 10.


But back to the original point. Look at the UK and look at the USA.

The UK had a huge surge in infections, but not nearly the surge in deaths this time.

USA Ratio Deaths/Cases: 2000/750,000 or 1:375
UK Ratio Deaths/Cases: 260/150,000 or 1:570

Well, actually the case rates are not as strikingly different as I had thought. Anyway, there it is. OK does significantly better because their elderly population is almost completely vaxxed.

Covid-Cases-over-Time.png

Covid-Deaths-over-Time.png



UK-Daily-Cases.png


UK-Daily-Deaths.png
Also now seeing 10-15% declines in the hospital numbers. We are definitely on downside of the peak and the decline is very sharp. Be interesting to note if the fatality decline that the graph showed the last two days holds or is that a reporting anomaly but would be great to see the fatality having peaked as well. I am really targetting mid/late March as the weather breaks to see where we get on the hospital and fatality numbers are will we see the same levels as we saw in the April/May timeframe of 2021 when we were at all time lows and it appeared that Covid was going to fade away.
 
the issue is policy makers are over ruling scientists on some things
I agree that this is a problem regardless of the field of science being discussed. When I was at PSU I took one policy class and I asked my professor at question about a piece of legislation that seemed to contradict the state of the science. He laughed and said "Policy rarely has anything to do with the science." I've steered clear of policy since then.
 
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