Where is that data?
I am being lazy, if you have a link, please....do so.
I'll analyze it.
Hypothetical Reminder: If 99.95% of the people are vaxxed, then all of the deaths will be among the vaxxed, even if the vaccine is really effective.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
I am being lazy, if you have a link, please....do so.
I'll analyze it.
Hypothetical Reminder: If 99.95% of the people are vaxxed, then all of the deaths will be among the vaxxed, even if the vaccine is really effective.
Don't be fooled by some posters who are intent on cherry picking or lying with statistics. At this point in time, the sample size of the vaccinated is much larger than the unvaccinated, you have to pay attention to rates.
‘SNL’ COVID-19 outbreak cancels Paul Rudd live audience, Charli XCX out
A set insider revealed that “four actors” have tested positive for coronavirus — and “three others” have called out.
nypost.com
I'm not arguing anything. I'm a right-wing Republican. I'm just reporting what a nurse on the frontlines told me. Like I said in the post, this is all anecdotal. Just one nurse's opinion. A very small sample size. People can do with the info as they please. Maybe it leads to an errant conclusion. Maybe the hospitals that this nurse knows about are outliers. Maybe the hospitals elsewhere are full of fully vaccinated Covid patients. I don't know.
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I think one of the biggest failures of our government is not providing us with numbers. How many people have been admitted to US hospitals with Covid during the last week? How many of them are vaccinated and how many aren't? What is the breakdown by age group? How many boostered people have been admitted to hospitals? How many boostered people have died? All we get for Fauci and Biden are demands on what we are to do. They don't back up their demands with facts and numbers. They want us to trust them and do what they say without any persuasive arguments to go along with their dictates.
I’ll answer the first question. I got it because I am over 65 cancer survivor and have some other mild comorbidities. For me decision was easy. For me the vaccine timeline has looked this 1. Miracle drug with 90% efficacy 2. Waning efficacy but still strong in spreading the virus 3 idea of “breakthrough “ cases dies as ability to spread is pretty common. (See Cornell campus referred to above. 4 catching and spreading common but still keeps us safe 5 now UK data showing 80% of deaths are vaxxed. I hope Lemon Ears post is more accurate but anyone who doesn’t wonder what is really happening is naive. As to your second paragraph I choose to think it is LaJolla being an asshat.
READ AND THINK ABOUT WHAT I'M SAYING BELOW.
Let us simplify and assume the reporting is correct - that 29% of all deaths actually are vaccinated.
Now, we know that virtually ALL deaths are those 50 years old and older. We could also use those that are 65 YO if we wanted.
In the 50-100 age group, there's pretty uniform vaccination and it's an average of 82%.
So, if we have 10000 people, we have 8200 vaccinated and 1800 not vaccinated.
But also, we know that 29 vaccinated people died and 71 unvaccinated people died.
So the death rate for vaccinated is 29/8200 = 0.0035.......
and for unvaccinated the death rate is 71/1800 = .0394
So, the figure of 10x cited is actually reasonable as .0394/.0035 = 11.3X
That figure matches virtually (within reason) every calculation I've done that uses coded deaths.
The question is: Can we trust them with those figures? Actually, that's not the question - we already know we cannot trust them. The question is: Are they lying this time?
I need to do a more detailed analysis of the cases to death ratios by age group now and before the vaccine to make a better estimate.
Got the Moderna booster last evening, had Pfizer main vaccination. Feel very sore all over today with a mild headache.
You got it for good reason which is great. My best friends wife has been in the ICU as a nurse (4 months out from getting her PHD and becoming a PA). Everything Lemonears stated is pretty much what she stated to my wife and I in terms of the medical community tiring. The Delta spike in our hospitals were 90% unvaccinated. The same friend had to incubate and then pull the plug on a dear friend of the family who wasn't vaccinated. He was overweight, but he was also 36 years old....tough pill to swallow and it does wear on some in that occupation. He was all for the jab but it was too late. More than likely he is alive today had he gotten it and it is sad.
To be honest it's really easy in 2021 to get a Doctor on the phone within a day or two and see if what your reading is BS or not.
If you compare the number of deaths in vaccinated and unvaccinated people per 100,000, the rate of death is much higher in unvaccinated people. A recent report for the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that, between 2 January and 24 September 2021, the age-adjusted risk of deaths involving Covid-19 was 32 times greater in unvaccinated people than in fully vaccinated people.
Guardian wrong to suggest unvaccinated deaths are the majority currently - Full Fact
UKHSA explains that this is because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated.
fullfact.org
These numbers will change in time as more people are vaccinated in the UK...hopefully in the US too. I just see January as being a very sh!tty month for the medical community. Those people need a break...at least some of them do.
The biggest failure was the politicization of COVID. And that is on both parties. Now, if you don’t want to get vaccinated you are a crazy right winger (even though the two largest groups are AAs and youngsters). But if you want to get vaccinated you are a left wing communist (even thought most are older and conservative).
They also clearly lied about the lab. Note being caught ‘red’ handed, and with varying strains, they lost credibility
That was the media driving that. And agree that it got way too political. But when Fauci and CDC started to play funny with the numbers, you just cannot so that as a medical professional and it was all downhill from there.
Any article citing "since January", when no one was vaccinated, is simply lying to you.You got it for good reason which is great. My best friends wife has been in the ICU as a nurse (4 months out from getting her PHD and becoming a PA). Everything Lemonears stated is pretty much what she stated to my wife and I in terms of the medical community tiring. The Delta spike in our hospitals were 90% unvaccinated. The same friend had to incubate and then pull the plug on a dear friend of the family who wasn't vaccinated. He was overweight, but he was also 36 years old....tough pill to swallow and it does wear on some in that occupation. He was all for the jab but it was too late. More than likely he is alive today had he gotten it and it is sad.
To be honest it's really easy in 2021 to get a Doctor on the phone within a day or two and see if what your reading is BS or not.
If you compare the number of deaths in vaccinated and unvaccinated people per 100,000, the rate of death is much higher in unvaccinated people. A recent report for the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that, between 2 January and 24 September 2021, the age-adjusted risk of deaths involving Covid-19 was 32 times greater in unvaccinated people than in fully vaccinated people.
Guardian wrong to suggest unvaccinated deaths are the majority currently - Full Fact
UKHSA explains that this is because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated.
These numbers will change in time as more people are vaccinated in the UK...hopefully in the US too. I just see January as being a very sh!tty month for the medical community. Those people need a break...at least some of them do.
A more accurate calculation of vaccine effectiveness against death is about 85%, maybe 90%.
I already posted the UK's VE above.
From UK's week 50 report, table 1 page 12.
Here are the Delta period unboosted numbers for Pfizer, you can see the other vaccines in the table, no calculations are necessary.
75-85% effectiveness against infection, 80-90% Symptomatic disease, 95-99% Hospitalization, and 90-99% for death.
It's safe to assume that the numbers were better at the start of Delta and somewhat worse now, and the charts show that. Keep in mind also they had Delta earlier than we did and that boosted VE numbers are much better.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...41593/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-50.pdf
That's a very well written document. I like it.
Now, I think we have to consider that most people are probably past the 20 week mark....that's not even 5 months. Pfizer is obviously pretty good.
For those too lazy to open the link:
Omicron looks like it evades the vaccines pretty well...unfortunately.
Sad that we need the UK for our data.
As regards my original post - we don't want some guy citing a 32X improvement in results with vaccine when they're using that hoaxed "since January" nonsense.
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If you want to get totally disgusted, read this Twitter thread where this person follows the email thread between Collins, director of the NIH, and doctor Fauci where they conspired to take down a group of scientists, including a Nobel prize winner, for dissenting from Fauci’s approved line of thinking
LE. spot on. One could wonder why? Occam's Razor would say it is because the numbers wouldn't back up their story right?
Yep, the only way to make it worse would be to include 2020. But hey the Biden Adminstration put out a press release of their accomplishments. The first one vaccines was that one year ago less then 1% of the population was vaxxed!. That's why so many people still believe it, the MSM keeps saying it.
Dear Lord will you learn to read basic stats....That's not a DATA SET, thats them putting in a biased number to get a calculation. I'll go S L O W so you can figure this out. You claim currently there are 10X the number of unvaxxed dying then vaxxed. The report you site proves you COMPLETELY WRONG. 77% of all deaths in the UK are vaxxed. And 81% over 60 are vaxxed. If you want to claim that deaths per 100K in unvaxxed is about 4x higher then vaxxed you're closer to being right. But the make your original claim you are just wrong.
Science is supposed to be about presenting a theory and then defending it in open debate. These ass hats defend their theories by silencing debate.
Spot on. And when a crime is uncovered, there are typically 9 left uncovered. What else went on in the last two years?
with this surge, it is clear that science has failed us. Was there a better path that would have yielded better results? We don’t know because debate was suspended. Not just suspended, but shamed.
That is what one would conclude and it kind of terrifies me. Since the government isn't quoting any numbers, one conclusion would be that the vaccine is worthless and millions of people are going to die a horrible death. However, much of the anecdotal data (like that from the nurse cited in my original post) would indicate that the vaccine is highly effective. I've heard doctor after doctor on TV say that if everyone was vaccinated then Covid would evolve into something like the common cold. If so, why isn't the government shouting this from the rooftops with data to support the claim? It is almost like they are hiding the data. Very puzzling.
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Please, please show me where 77% of all deaths in UK are vaxxed.
I would like to see that.
You're so full of it, the 10X number is what the numbers show in the US and our numbers are better. Sorry, but you're too stupid to understand that one small cherrypicked data set is not the way to calculate VE. But, carry on, keep using statistics to lie and ignoring the numbers staring you in the face.
The vaccines are very good at reducing severity and saving lives. If more people were vaccinated the hospitals and morgues would be far less crowded. In that respect, 5hyenare highly effective.
But of everyone was vaccinated does not predict with any certainty that Covid would go the route of the common cold. In fact it may go the opposite, we just do know.
For decades, experts have been warning about the overuse of antibiotics in livestock. They say this leading to the development of resistant strains of various diseases. When antibiotics are widely used 5hey kill,all susceptible bigs and the resistant ones survive and eventually flourish. Same mechanism could,work with. Covid.
The vaccines only reduce severity and people infected still replicate viruses and still shed viruses. People in contact with them could and do become infected. So if everyone has the vaccines their bodies will develop antibodies to kill the viruses. But the viruses will mutate and some mutations will avoid those antibodies thus becoming a new variant immune to vaccines. The question is will the new variants be more severe?
Yes, that is what I said above. In less than 20 months there are already two strains of virus (delta and omicron) that are capable of evading some level of antibodies. Add to that fact that both these strains will have literally transversed the entire world in a matter of a couple of months. The rate of mutation and contagiousness of Covid is just so far off the charts that it is really not comprehendable. We have 70% of the population above 12 fully vaxed and 83% with at least one dose. The amount of natural infection antibodies has to push those numbers more in the 75% and 90% respectively. By all leading medical doctors this is plenty enough for herd immunity to start and yet we now have the highest single day totals in the virus history occurring now.
I just don't know where the end game is anymore.
Does anyone have a link that shows CASES by age group by week (or even month)?
I can back calculate a vaccine effectiveness very nicely IF I can find that data.
I can't find it anywhere.
I can back calculate a vaccine effectiveness very nicely IF I can find that data.
I can't find it anywhere.
Go to page 37
Last 3 weeks 3087 deaths---718 unvaxxed 23.3% unvaxxed 76.7% vaxxed
I'm not arguing whether or not deaths per 100K are higher.
As a matter of fact you last graph shows its between 5x and 6x but that was 3 months ago.
But when someone claims there are 10X more unvaxxed deaths then vaxxed thats a lie. Of course SLU is trying to use US data from January that is just manipulating the numbers to get what you want.
England's VE against Death: 1 - 1/7 = 86%
so looing at since August when Delta came into full swing, basically averaging as you noted about 1 vax death per 7 unvax death (although coming steadily down). If the UK is about 80% vaccinated, then doesn't that curve say not much difference in being vaccinated or not since it should be more in the 5 to 1 realm just based on vax vs. unvax. So if only at 7 to 1, that is not very good for vaccination effectivness?
FWIW, Moderna says their drug is effective on Omicron (but that may be like Dodge telling you the Ram is better than the F150):
www.theguardian.com
Moderna says booster produces strong antibody response to Omicron
Pharmaceuticals firm says third dose of its Covid vaccine increases antibodies against variant by 37-fold
So we can assume Booker and Warren had Pfizer?FWIW, Moderna says their drug is effective on Omicron (but that may be like Dodge telling you the Ram is better than the F150):
Moderna says booster produces strong antibody response to Omicron
Pharmaceuticals firm says third dose of its Covid vaccine increases antibodies against variant by 37-fold
for the last year, there has been a lot of talk of how Moderna has been better than Pfizer. And that J&J is about useless at this point. But the CDC, etc...won't come right out and say it as that would make panic amongst the J&J crowd and also now make everybody run to get a Moderna and their are not enough doses for everybody to do that. But based on what I have read, anybody getting a booster should NOT get whatever they had originally. So if they originally had pfizer they should get a moderna boost. and if they originally had moderna get a pfizer boost. and if you had J&J, you should go get two doses of moderna.
Second...if in the next 24-48 hours we don't see Pfizer put out something similiar, than by definition Pfizer know's their booster doesn't do anything close to the same. As if it did, they would be putting our articles also.
You should do your own research, but I know if I had J&J originally then I would be getting a Moderna booster. J&J is not faring very well in holding it's effectiveness plus I think that mixing the vaccines is best to get the most varied antibody response and Moderna definitely seems to be the best.
Nice article today’s WSJ, page A19. The fickle science of lockdowns . To paraphrase - Medical science has known lockdowns don’t work . Numerous studies have proven lockdowns ineffective . 2019 Johns Hopkins study - some non pharmaceutical interventions such as travel restrictions, and quarantine , might be pursued for social or political purposes by political leaders, rather than pursued because of public health evidence . That’s a big wtf .
Probably a paywall but here’s the link …
Opinion | The Fickle ‘Science’ of Lockdowns
Experts foresaw before Covid that the strategy would fail. The authorities embraced it anyway.
www.wsj.com
I guess you you are talking about the possibility it might cause an elevated risk that is almost zero but not quite zero in one specific age group - 16-29 YO, then I guess so. Maybe. But not proven.
I saw that idiot that talks about the media came out and implored schools not to shut down. Interesting because the schools were a critical point before with the union being involved and parents pissed because they had a kid at home causing them to miss work. This is a complete 180, really. It has to be driven by polls.Nice article today’s WSJ, page A19. The fickle science of lockdowns . To paraphrase - Medical science has known lockdowns don’t work . Numerous studies have proven lockdowns ineffective . 2019 Johns Hopkins study - some non pharmaceutical interventions such as travel restrictions, and quarantine , might be pursued for social or political purposes by political leaders, rather than pursued because of public health evidence . That’s a big wtf .
Probably a paywall but here’s the link …
Opinion | The Fickle ‘Science’ of Lockdowns
Experts foresaw before Covid that the strategy would fail. The authorities embraced it anyway.
But extending that, why would they NOT want to shut down schools but want to shut down places of business like their very own CNN? It makes no sense and tells me that this is either completely political or they have no freakin clue what to do on a day in and out basis.
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