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Optimistic

KidNittany

Well-Known Member
Jun 26, 2012
2,217
686
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So this was my first chance to post since the dual, here are my thoughts:

First, awesome atmosphere. Electric. Who wouldn't want to wrestle in that arena, to that crowd? They did a great job setting up the BJC for the event and it was an awesome dual. I don't know what's up with the Walking Tacos though.

The match: My overall impression is that Penn State was a little fresher than Iowa, but I don't know how much it affected the results. Hawkeyes traveled to Maryland before State College, so definitely racked up some flier miles. Combined with the home-field advantage, our guys definitely had a bit of an edge to start.

125: Conaway almost pulled one out. He was close and is flashing his AA potential here. Gilman owned the first two periods before Jordan lit up in the third. Gilman barely held on, but the match is 7 minutes folks. I think it confirmed what people were thinking about their rankings. Still, a little improvement and that result could change.
133: Gulibon maintained his composure and won it. Big time step up composure wise. IMO, Gulibon's toughest opponent is his confidence. He can beat anyone at this weight. Hoping he translates today into a show the rest of the way, he certainly could.
141: Kind of a wash. Moss was banged up a little but Dziewa showed the experience, and definitely wanted the victory. Still think Moss is around that 20ish range and could surprise in the post-season. Nifty reversal in the first
149: Beitz is right there in this weight. Needs to be able to get out from that ride (I don't care if its stalling/whatever. Not getting called, don't think it will. Just get out). Has some sweet ankle pick action going (that cross was great). Came close at the end. AA potential.
157: Frey just got outmuscled here. Had some slick moves but I think Kelly was just too big. IMO, Dylan will sit out OKST, wrestle Rider (then a decision to be made) and then hopefully puts it all out there in the post-season.
165: What a win by Hammond. No one (including me) gave him the nod for victory but he proved people wrong. Great gaming (although kinda stally). Sometimes confidence is all you need. Hopefully he translates this to qualifying and making some noise.
174: Brown broke Evans. I don't think he (Evans) was stalling, but Brown didn't even let him breath. Very impressive victory and Matt is turning it on at the right time. Great, great win.
184: Matt just got outmatched here. Brooks is explosive and might be in title contention when all is said and done. Still thinking R12 is in sights, but gotta go get on your offense (and finish shots!!!)
197: Dominant win here, but Morgan needs to get that major. No reason for not getting it. That being said, he rode him like a dog and it's hard to complain from an individual standpoint.
HWT: Lawson didn't do anything. Still think he can AA but if he wants to beat Telford in March he needs more offense/get out from bottom.

Overall, I think everyone is thinking it so I'll just say it: Penn State has a shot. And I think it's better than people thought. They haven't peaked yet, and knowing our zen master, well...I'm optimistic.
 
Originally posted by Lattner:
If they win it this year, there will be lynchings in Iowa City.
Agreed, but it Iowa loses, it's not gonna be to PSU. Just not enough guns in the arsenal this year. Would love to be wrong, but just don't see it.
 
Originally posted by BruceK-PSU83:

Originally posted by Lattner:
If they win it this year, there will be lynchings in Iowa City.
Agreed, but it Iowa loses, it's not gonna be to PSU. Just not enough guns in the arsenal this year. Would love to be wrong, but just don't see it.
Agreed. Just don't have enough this year at all. But just to satisfy my itch, I'm going to put my John Doe glasses on and do some really optimistic predictions and see where that brings us:

Remember this is all HIGH SIDE

125 - JC has a nice path, gets a big win with a late TD and finishes 6th. Sorry, some of you will hope for higher, but I can't see it - higher than 6th would mean upsetting more than 1 guy who I think is better than him. I'll give him 1.

133 - JG 3/4 match

141 - Moss 4 points - gets a pin and 2 consy wins

149 - ZB - 8th to R12

157 - Dylan comes back and finishes 5/6.

165 - Garrett 4 to 5 points - a pin, maybe a win on front side

174 - Brown - National Champ

184 - McCutcheon - 8th to R12 - this weight is not deep

197 - MM - 2nd - Going to have to win the B1G tournament and get the 3 seed at nationals.

285 - Lawson - 6th

These are all HIGH SIDE predictions. Some of you are going to say - wait, Hammond just beat a top 8 guy, why can't he finish 8th? or Beitz has beaten Panteleo and come close to a couple of other guys. It doesn't work that way at Nationals. So many good guys in the bracket that you have to pull multiple upsets. Best chance is on the front side pulling the upset to get you to semis (Lawson, Conaway), quarters (McCutcheon, Beitz) or R16 (Hammond). There will be some of those upsets in most brackets and the consys can be minefields.

So in a best case scenario, I have us with 2 finalists, 1 consy finalist, 3 guys in the 5/6 bout and 2 others 8th to R12. The other two guys chipping in 10 points. Off the top of my head that is about 100 points plus other bonus. Which could win us the National Championship if EVERYTHING went perfectly.
 
If they lose it will be to OSU or Minny. We end top 6 !!
 
I'm blown away how close we were to beating Minny and Iowa with Nico, Zain and Nolf redshirting. With those 3 in the lineup, we win both those matches. OSU would have been closer, but not sure we win that one. That will be a wild match next year.
 
Tend to agree...had the Altons both returned and were progressing towards top form, I'd give us a "puncher's chance" (especially, Andrew Alton as he is a bonus machine when wrestling in absolute top form), but without this piece of the puzzle falling into place, I just don't see enough firepower in the line-up.
 
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