Of all the D1 schools only about 10-12

[sammyk]

have a real chance of winning a national title on any year. If you look at college football the schools with the money, reputation, recruiting power has a chance and that is about 12 teams. You will never see an Oklahoma State or an Iowa/Arizona St/Kentucky /Wake Forest win a title. Here are my teams by region who has a real chance of winning

West
USC

Midwest
Ohio State
Notre Dame

Northeast
Penn State

Mid plains
Texas
Oklahoma

South
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Florida
Florida St
Clemson

After that its pretty slim. Now you may have that one year where the stars line up but after this not many has a real shot.

 

[cjrugger]

So what?

 

[zubrus1]

Oregon?

 

[psuno1]

Oregon just play for it in 2014, PSU has not played for a national title since 1986 but got robbed of a title in 1994. MSU was in the playoff in 2015.

 

[Harrisburg Dave]

I would give Michigan and Oregon as much of a chance as I would Penn State.

 

[sammyk]

I would give Michigan and Oregon as much of a chance as I would Penn State.

Michigan I dont think so and Oregon perhaps maybe

 

[sammyk]

In The Pac 12 USC has the clout to get the recruits and the history behind them Oregon maybe but after that the PAC has nothing

The BIG is Ohio St and the only team who can even come close to beating them on a semi regular basis is PSU. Michigan is a good team and proud team but over overrated on a national stage

Big 12 is Texas and Oklahoma and thats it

ACC
Clemson
FSU - due to area and now new coach

SEC has about 5 teams that can make it I forgot Georgia

 

[BrucePa]

Notre Dame? Has hell frozen over?

 

[sammyk]

Notre Dame? Has hell frozen over?

No they get the recruits and their schedule is an easier path and that increases if they don't have to play clemson

 

[mrmk5110]

If USC is on this list then Michigan and Oregon have to be on it as well.

So much of this is dependent on coaching hires. Remember before Saban was there what Alabama was like? Alabama was a mess. When Kelly was at Oregon they were a yearly power. Tommy Bowden was a perennial 8-4 at Clemson.

With the right coaching hire schools like Tennessee and Miami can be on this list too, even though Tennessee has been bad since Fulmer left, and Miami has been mismanaged for years. Nebraska I don't know about due to their inherent recruiting disadvantages.

 

[PSULionsDub]

Honestly, putting Penn State in the group that has a realistic shot at winning the national championship is a stretch. While we have been a top ten team, we have had glaring weaknesses (secondary, wide receivers, defenses ability to play 4 quarters, to name a few) that a national champion would never have. I would say there are about 5 teams, Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma. LSU not this year.

 

[sammyk]

If USC is on this list then Michigan and Oregon have to be on it as well.

So much of this is dependent on coaching hires. Remember before Saban was there what Alabama was like? Alabama was a mess. When Kelly was at Oregon they were a yearly power. Tommy Bowden was a perennial 8-4 at Clemson.

With the right coaching hire schools like Tennessee and Miami can be on this list too, even though Tennessee has been bad since Fulmer left, and Miami has been mismanaged for years. Nebraska I don't know about due to their inherent recruiting disadvantages.

Since 1999 12 different teams have won the national title. One year there was a split but as mentioned here are the teams and how many they won in that 20 year span
Alabama 5
LSU 3
Clemson 2
FSU 2
Ohio St 2
USC 2
Texas 1
Auburn 1
Miami FL 1
Oklahoma 1

All but Miami are on my list

 

[sammyk]

The previous 20 year period you had 16 different teams win the title

 

[BrucePa]

No they get the recruits and their schedule is an easier path and that increases if they don't have to play clemson

That's the point. They tiptoe through a cupcake schedule, occasionally skate into the BCS (twice), and get the living daylights stomped out of them by a real football team.

If they played in the B1G East, or SEC West, they might go 6-6 every year.

 

[mrmk5110]

Since 1999 12 different teams have won the national title. One year there was a split but as mentioned here are the teams and how many they won in that 20 year span
Alabama 5
LSU 3
Clemson 2
FSU 2
Ohio St 2
USC 2
Texas 1
Auburn 1
Miami FL 1
Oklahoma 1

All but Miami are on my list

If you stretch that 20 year period out another 2 years you can include Tennessee (1998) and Nebraska and Michigan with the split (1997)

In 2020 those schools wouldn't be in play for a NC, but things change in a hurry and all of those schools have the resources and support available to build themselves up to elevate to that status. FSU is on your list and they are right now light years away from Clemson in competing in the ACC, and if Texas doesn't do it this year I don't really see when they will get there under Herman.

 

[katchthis]

There is an aggregate star system for the recruits on the team. No one under (value x, I didn't re-Google the article) has ever won the NC . The total teams above x in any year is about 14. So that article ball parks the possible champs about the same as your guesstimate.

 

[ras5051]

Free agency transfers are gonna keep it this way for the long haul. Any fringe top 25 team that has a QB that stars as a frosh/soph, that kids gonna be transferring to a UGA, OSU, Oklahoma, etc. it’s gonna pretty much eliminate elite schools having down years

 

[AvalonJohn]

have a real chance of winning a national title on any year. If you look at college football the schools with the money, reputation, recruiting power has a chance and that is about 12 teams. You will never see an Oklahoma State or an Iowa/Arizona St/Kentucky /Wake Forest win a title. Here are my teams by region who has a real chance of winning

West
USC

Midwest
Ohio State
Notre Dame

Northeast
Penn State

Mid plains
Texas
Oklahoma

South
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Florida
Florida St
Clemson

After that its pretty slim. Now you may have that one year where the stars line up but after this not many has a real shot.

Notre Dame hasn't had a chance in years .....

 

[Nitt1300]

There are few sports less competitive than college football

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

have a real chance of winning a national title on any year. If you look at college football the schools with the money, reputation, recruiting power has a chance and that is about 12 teams. You will never see an Oklahoma State or an Iowa/Arizona St/Kentucky /Wake Forest win a title. Here are my teams by region who has a real chance of winning

West
USC

Midwest
Ohio State
Notre Dame

Northeast
Penn State

Mid plains
Texas
Oklahoma

South
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Florida
Florida St
Clemson

After that its pretty slim. Now you may have that one year where the stars line up but after this not many has a real shot.

We had a discussion about this in January 2019. Here is what I said then:

I think these are the only teams who can/will ever win a NC going forward:

Pac 12 - USC, Oregon
SEC - LSU, Auburn, Bama, Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia
Big Ten - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Big XII - Oklahoma, Texas
ACC - Clemson, Florida State
Notre Dame

The last time any of these schools didn't win a NC was Miami, in 2001. Maybe a Nebraska, or Wisconsin, or Washington, or Tennessee sneaks in there, but really, that's about it with how big a role money has become.

Point is the number of teams with a real chance of winning is really, really small if and until there is an automatic bid for conference champions. And Clemson won a NC in '81. UCLA could do it but they're not invested in football there and won't sell out to win.


Here is the thread:

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threa...nal-championship-anymore.229902/#post-3927447

 

[NC2017]

have a real chance of winning a national title on any year. If you look at college football the schools with the money, reputation, recruiting power has a chance and that is about 12 teams. You will never see an Oklahoma State or an Iowa/Arizona St/Kentucky /Wake Forest win a title. Here are my teams by region who has a real chance of winning

West
USC

Midwest
Ohio State
Notre Dame

Northeast
Penn State

Mid plains
Texas
Oklahoma

South
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Florida
Florida St
Clemson

After that its pretty slim. Now you may have that one year where the stars line up but after this not many has a real shot.

Maybe we could plug in the rest of the schools into weight classes like they do in boxing;

• lightweight, 135 pounds (61 kg)
• super lightweight, 140 pounds (63.5 kg)
• welterweight, 147 pounds (67 kg)
• super welterweight, 154 pounds (70 kg)
• middleweight, 160 pounds (72.5 kg)
• super middleweight, 168 pounds (76 kg)
• light heavyweight, 175 pounds (79 kg)
• cruiserweight, 200 pounds (91 kg)
• heavyweight, unlimited

 

[nits74]

We had a discussion about this in January 2019. Here is what I said then:

I think these are the only teams who can/will ever win a NC going forward:

Pac 12 - USC, Oregon
SEC - LSU, Auburn, Bama, Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia
Big Ten - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Big XII - Oklahoma, Texas
ACC - Clemson, Florida State
Notre Dame

The last time any of these schools didn't win a NC was Miami, in 2001. Maybe a Nebraska, or Wisconsin, or Washington, or Tennessee sneaks in there, but really, that's about it with how big a role money has become.

Point is the number of teams with a real chance of winning is really, really small if and until there is an automatic bid for conference champions. And Clemson won a NC in '81. UCLA could do it but they're not invested in football there and won't sell out to win.


Here is the thread:

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threa...nal-championship-anymore.229902/#post-3927447

Didn't go through the entire thread, but the only team I'd disagree with you on is Texas A&M. They seem at their best, to be only on the periphery. Never a real contender.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Didn't go through the entire thread, but the only team I'd disagree with you on is Texas A&M. They seem at their best, to be only on the periphery. Never a real contender.

True, but when written they were one of - if not the most - well funded programs in the country. Programs with money - and A&M has a sh*t ton of it - are going to be contenders. They have a tough path in the SEC, but have a better chance than most others.

 

[BrucePa]

For the foreseeable future, the conversation about national championships begins and ends with Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and *maybe* Oregon. Any other school would be considered a longshot for the next few years.

I would ask the question "Why?" these schools. What is about recruiting, facilities, coaching, academic requirements, whatever, that sets these schools apart?

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

For the foreseeable future, the conversation about national championships begins and ends with Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and *maybe* Oregon. Any other school would be considered a longshot for the next few years.

I would ask the question "Why?" these schools. What is about recruiting, facilities, coaching, academic requirements, whatever, that sets these schools apart?

With the possible exception of Oregon, those schools will do anything to win. And by that I mean they will invest in ‘football first’ before taking revenue money to build a museum, or new lab building. Listen to what Franklin says when he talks facilities and funding. Schools like Clemson are building high tech ‘QB’ labs and spending tons of money on recruiting. Franklin is begging for money to keep up. Dabo says ‘gimme’ and gets it.

 

[AWS1022]

There are few sports less competitive than college football

College basketball being one of them.

 

[Ward Hog]

With the right coach and money a few other programs can win a title, but not many.

 

[nits74]

True, but when written they were one of - if not the most - well funded programs in the country. Programs with money - and A&M has a sh*t ton of it - are going to be contenders. They have a tough path in the SEC, but have a better chance than most others.

I thought of the money aspect as well, but to me they've always been lacking that certain cache one associates with a blue blood program.

 

[Option Bob]

I thought of the money aspect as well, but to me they've always been lacking that certain cache one associates with a blue blood program.

That "certain cache" might very well be TAMU's lack of a consistently successful, championship-level seasons through decades.

It might be easier too understand if you thought off A&M as the Lone Star State version of Pitt. Aggies hate The University of Texas much more than the Longhorns despise TAMU. A&M to this day refuses to call Texas "UT"; instead, Ags refer to the Austin school as "TU." Childish ... but appropriate to hard-corps Aggies.

Since Bear Bryant left in 1957, A&M has had about 3 good years under Jackie Sherrill in the mid-80s and 3 good seasons under RC Slocum in the early 90s. That's basically it for A&M championship football. I think they did win 1 Big 12 title in 1998, but otherwise, their tenure in the Big 12 was mediocre.

The last TAMU national title was 1939 ... heck, even the single most over-rated, arrogant program on Earth has won a title since then. Furthermore, A&M has a losing Bowl record ... somewhat akin to the Bowl record of that aforementioned smug program in the Big Ten.

Yes, the Aggies have $$$$ ... lots of it ... but their continued immature, irrational hatred of the Longhorns makes their campus a little bit too "out there" for many national recruits. I doubt they win the SEC West Division anytime soon, much less a MNC.

 

[LafayetteBear]

SammyK: You forgot Cal.

 

[IrishHerb]

If USC is on this list then Michigan and Oregon have to be on it as well.

So much of this is dependent on coaching hires. Remember before Saban was there what Alabama was like? Alabama was a mess. When Kelly was at Oregon they were a yearly power. Tommy Bowden was a perennial 8-4 at Clemson.

With the right coaching hire schools like Tennessee and Miami can be on this list too, even though Tennessee has been bad since Fulmer left, and Miami has been mismanaged for years. Nebraska I don't know about due to their inherent recruiting disadvantages.

I agree with this ... its coaching. A good coach at the right school spells success. A great or really good coach can probably succeed at almost any school.