Most likely hypothetical 5 timers

[Dogwelder]

… I was originally enamored with the idea of the one and only 5xer ever. Now it seems more of just a covid asterisk oddity. …

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

 

[PSU Mike]

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

Larry’s boy. Oh, wait …

 

[Callthestall]

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

Jordan Oliver agrees 😏

 

[mcpat]

 

[zzs006]

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

I think Pat Smith or Steiber. I think Smith was the “worst” 4-timer. Smith had 5 loses and 2 ties. He also won 98 straight which is pretty ****ing good. I rank the 4 timers like this

1)Cael
2)Dake
3)Starocci
4)AB
5)Yianni
6)Steiber
7)Smith

I put Starocci above AB mainly because of AB’s loss to the Iowa State kid last year. I also think Steiber and Smith could be switched.

Just rereading the question. I just ranked the 4-timers instead of ranking them by least likely to win a 5th. That could definitely change my rankings. I’m not sure who Smith would have had to get through the next season so Steiber is probably the right answer

 

[El-Jefe]

I

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

I'd have to think about it.

But I'm not sure Stieber is the right answer even though he's the easy answer. IIRC his JR year he bonused every match not involving Zain. And the next year, with Zain gone, he dominated again.

 

[baccafarmer]

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

Well …. Cael probably could have rung up a 5th, 6th, 7th and more, but, what’s the point. College has traditionally been a 4 year endeavor (although a hell of a lot of kids languish around campus for 5 years these days). All the history of wrestling revolves around 4 years of eligibility. All this Covid crap is bullshit (especially for the guys who lost a year). Carter winning a 5th would mean no more than what AB just achieved winning his 4th. Hell …. he’s the only guy in the history of college wrestling (and probably the last) to ever have a shot at being a 5 timer. If he ends up winning a 5th it would have the biggest asterisk since Roger Maris.

 

[jrod65]

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

Here's my order of confidence(least to most). Basing this mostly on the level of competition of the finalists at their weights the following year.

Dake - Taylor/Caldwell
Starocci - O'Toole/???
Yianni - Henson/Gomez
Stieber - Heil/Meredith
Cael - Hahn/Trenge
Smith - Benion/Wirnsberger
Brooks - No one next year would be a challenge

Although, Dake may have continued his weight ascent to 174 to keep the streak going. In that case he would have Perry/Howe. I would then slot him below Stieber

 

[kingslayer_85]

I think Pat Smith or Steiber. I think Smith was the “worst” 4-timer. Smith had 5 loses and 2 ties. He also won 98 straight which is pretty ****ing good. I rank the 4 timers like this

1)Cael
2)Dake
3)Starocci
4)AB
5)Yianni
6)Steiber
7)Smith

I put Starocci above AB mainly because of AB’s loss to the Iowa State kid last year. I also think Steiber and Smith could be switched.

Just rereading the question. I just ranked the 4-timers instead of ranking them by least likely to win a 5th. That could definitely change my rankings. I’m not sure who Smith would have had to get through the next season so Steiber is probably the right answe

What criteria did you use to put Cael ahead of Dake. I have Dake at number one based on who he beat in his 4 trips to NCAA's and who was in the bracket compared to Cael's brackets. Dake did beat two Olympians

 

[Dogwelder]

… But I'm not sure Stieber is the right answer even though he's the easy answer. IIRC his JR year he bonused every match not involving Zain. And the next year, with Zain gone, he dominated again.

Good point. (And, I did not remember until reading jrod’s post that Stieber would have avoided the heavier Zain if Stieber would have come back and stayed at his year-4 weight. Thanks Jefe and jrod!)

 

[matter7172]

What criteria did you use to put Cael ahead of Dake. I have Dake at number one based on who he beat in his 4 trips to NCAA's and who was in the bracket compared to Cael's brackets. Dake did beat two Olympians

Didn't Dake take some losses in college? Like 4? I have him just barely above Pat Smith.

 

[zzs006]

What criteria did you use to put Cael ahead of Dake. I have Dake at number one based on who he beat in his 4 trips to NCAA's and who was in the bracket compared to Cael's brackets. Dake did beat two Olympians

Dake lost 4 matches in his career. That in itself is enough. Cael beat at least 3 olympians during his college career (Cormier, Hrovat, and Vering). I’m not sure if you are serious or not? Go look at Caels brackets. They were stacked. Guys like Vertus Jones, Brandon Eggum, Casey Strand, Jon Trenge, Josh Lambrecht, Rob Rohn, Aaron Simpson, and Mark Munoz. I put those opponents up against Dakes any day. The biggest thing in Dakes favor is beating DT but that doesn’t swing things in his favor.

 

[El-Jefe]

Dake lost 4 matches in his career. That in itself is enough. Cael beat at least 3 olympians during his college career (Cormier, Hrovat, and Vering). I’m not sure if you are serious or not? Go look at Caels brackets. They were stacked. Guys like Vertus Jones, Brandon Eggum, Casey Strand, Jon Trenge, Josh Lambrecht, Rob Rohn, Aaron Simpson, and Mark Munoz. I put those opponents up against Dakes any day. The biggest thing in Dakes favor is beating DT but that doesn’t swing things in his favor.

Dake beat another Olympian twice -- Frank Molinaro -- but agreed, that still doesn't put his competition ahead of Cael's.

 

[Conewago]

I agree. Being a 5 timer is probably not so impressive, to people with high standards, such as Carter and the other 4 timers, because the other 4 timers did not have an opportunity at a 5th.

That makes me wonder. Which 4 timer(s) would have been least likely to win a 5th, if given a chance. Logan, right? How would we rank them by likelihood?

I forget. Is the general consensus of this board that Oliver took Stieber down in that final? My memory is that some said it was not a takedown, by the rules at that time. I'd call it a takedown because that crotch lock was, in my opinion, irrelevant.

Your question is a very good one but answering it would require me or is to look back through several brackets. Dake is a fun one. Could he beat David again? Unfortunately, probably. Could he bump to 174 and win 5 natties in 5 weights? Probably! Chris Perry won that year (I think that was the year perry got pinned by Mike Evans but the ref f'd Evans) and does anyone believe Perry is beating Dake?

 

[kingslayer_85]

Dake lost 4 matches in his career. That in itself is enough. Cael beat at least 3 olympians during his college career (Cormier, Hrovat, and Vering). I’m not sure if you are serious or not? Go look at Caels brackets. They were stacked. Guys like Vertus Jones, Brandon Eggum, Casey Strand, Jon Trenge, Josh Lambrecht, Rob Rohn, Aaron Simpson, and Mark Munoz. I put those opponents up against Dakes any day. The biggest thing in Dakes favor is beating DT but that doesn’t swing things in his favor.

well i don't really factor a few losses when I look at this and I guess we disagree since I consider the beating Frank, DT (3 times) and Reece Humphrey a more impressive list.

 

[El-Jefe]

I forget. Is the general consensus of this board that Oliver took Stieber down in that final? My memory is that some said it was not a takedown, by the rules at that time. I'd call it a takedown because that crotch lock was, in my opinion, irrelevant.

Your question is a very good one but answering it would require me or is to look back through several brackets. Dake is a fun one. Could he beat David again? Unfortunately, probably. Could he bump to 174 and win 5 natties in 5 weights? Probably! Chris Perry won that year (I think that was the year perry got pinned by Mike Evans but the ref f'd Evans) and does anyone believe Perry is beating Dake?

Many/most thought it was a takedown at the time.

It was controversial enough that the NCAA issued a corrective action for the next season -- don't remember offhand if it were ref emphasis points + training, or an explicit rule change. Whatever, it would've been a takedown that November.

I think you're right about that being the year Evans stuck Perry. Perry was great against Howe in the finals, but Dake was the better wrestler.

Hedging here a little for context: this was before the Heil Rule, and before the NCAA cracked down on the side headlock/double grapevine stall ride. Perry was flagrant with both. So he conceivably could've beaten Dake in a 2-1 rideout type match, like he did to Matt Brown. I'd take Dake anyway, but Perry had a non-zero chance of weaseling a win.

 

[PSUbluTX]

Fix?

Repair?

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Dake lost 4 matches in his career. That in itself is enough. Cael beat at least 3 olympians during his college career (Cormier, Hrovat, and Vering). I’m not sure if you are serious or not? Go look at Caels brackets. They were stacked. Guys like Vertus Jones, Brandon Eggum, Casey Strand, Jon Trenge, Josh Lambrecht, Rob Rohn, Aaron Simpson, and Mark Munoz. I put those opponents up against Dakes any day. The biggest thing in Dakes favor is beating DT but that doesn’t swing things in his favor.

And didn’t just beat Olympians - often bonused them.

Cael was 4 time OW at NCAAs. At 27.4 points per tourney, he essentially had Brooks’ senior year NCAAs 4 times.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

A decent barometer in these kind of discussions is to bring career bonus % into the forefront. 4xer as impressive as it is, is simply one indicator, without highlighting the path traveled to get there.

Yanni for instance was a gumby-like wizard in scrambles, but honestly didn't impress me much at all his final year, and nearly lost 2 matches in his final tournament. A more mature SVN probably pulls out that match.

Once bonus is considered, there is only one name at the top and then some distance to number two.

Cael.

If I had the stats in front of me I would rank them all that way. I will admit this ignores trajectory, where maybe Brooks is the best example, he is getting notably better each year, and if he came back for a 5th, I have little doubt he would cake walk to #5, with close to 100% bonus.

 

[82bordeaux]

Let's not forget that Carter Starocci lost 2 matches on the mat in 5 years. He lost to DJ Washington and Michael Kemerer and was unbeaten in four other years. If he were to return, he would likely be undefeated in 5 years of NCAA competition. That is a pretty special thing.

 

[David Keller]

But a rule. No one can wrestle past 30 in college.

Me, I like 4 and done with max 2 redshirts. Let the young kids come in and wrestle.

 

[AndEEss]

After watching more of his matches, I’m less and less convinced that KOT would challenge Carter at 174. Healthy Carter gives up no offensive points to KOT. He’s too fundamentally sound. KOT isn’t stopping Carter from getting to his legs and he’s not long enough to cradle Carter. Also, he’s going to give up at least a point by taking neutral or going under Carter and giving up RT.

 

[Psubiomed]

But a rule. No one can wrestle past 30 in college.

That rule would have eliminated DeAugustinos entire collegiate career

 

[KCLion]

Let's not forget that Carter Starocci lost 2 matches on the mat in 5 years. He lost to DJ Washington and Michael Kemerer and was unbeaten in four other years. If he were to return, he would likely be undefeated in 5 years of NCAA competition. That is a pretty special thing.

Another 10-20 seconds and the Washington loss would have been a win as well.

 

[PAHURDLER]

Another 10-20 seconds and the Washington loss would have been a win as well.

New rule: 3rd period is 2:20 long!

(Messenbrink rejoices)

 

[matter7172]

New rule: 3rd period is 2:20 long!

(Messenbrink rejoices)

Just go back to the old rule and make the periods 2,3 and 3 (or the 3,3 and 3 it was before that). That'll take care of it. 7 minute matches are for wussies.

 

[matter7172]

That rule would have eliminated DeAugustinos entire collegiate career

To be fair, the Civil War was really long.

 

[lockhavenlion3]

Another 10-20 seconds and the Washington loss would have been a win as well.

yep. another match where a ref let a wrestler stall the entire third period. much like mm's finals match saturday.

 

[El-Jefe]

Just go back to the old rule and make the periods 2,3 and 3 (or the 3,3 and 3 it was before that). That'll take care of it. 7 minute matches are for wussies.

Ryan would run out of lunger bricks in Round 1.

So no real change.