For me, the biggest tell is how our weaknesses play to Michigan strengths and weaknesses.
Three Major Defensive Weaknesses
1. Outside run. Last year, we could not stop it. We lack a legit 5 tech end. Both ends were steamrolled early and often by every team with a back capable of getting outside or running off tackle. We cannot generate pressure up the middle to disrupt outside plays before they start. We have not been tested but so far, there is no reason to think we have improved. Corum's absence kept last year's game closer than it likely would have been otherwise with Michigan running Haskins into the middle of the D all day. Advantage Michigan.
2. Pass rush. We simply cannot generate a consistent pass rush with our front four. We need to bring two linebackers for the rush to matter. That was against CMU. Not Michigan. Advantage Michigan.
3. Pass Coverage. The secondary is great. Perhaps the best in the Big Ten. However, the middle of the field has been wide open in every game because Diaz sends multiple players (beyond the front four) to the QB on most plays. Michigan has the best tight in the conference at this point, and he was the backup entering the season. Furthermore, their QB has legs and the arm to attack this part of the field. Advantage Michigan.
Bottom line, our defensive weaknesses are Michigan's strengths on offense. Not a good match, especially on the road knowing they'll get their fair share of calls.