Always entertaining and generally speaking very good games. My personal experience is that IN PERSON the fan bases are great to each other and tailgating together is a joy though once you get to message board banter and social media sites things seem to deteriorate quickly! Super fearful of our WR's getting loose (or even open) on your skilled DB's. But having said that, I have great confidence in UM's defensive front 4 - and if you think their success up front is only a product of a soft schedule, I believe you may come away with a different opinion after the game.
Michigan v Penn State
- Thread starter AdvanSix
- Start date
U of M reminds me of some of the earlier versions of PSU especially from 69-86.
The team was going to be tough, the question was did they have enough difference makers
to beat the very strong teams.
The years that we had good QB play, experienced OL play and good RB and at least one WR we could show up on anyones field and compete.
Toughness, running, solid defense can travel.
PSU is having a good year. Some of our best players are freshman, having us go on the road against Mich is a big ask.
With our secondary if we can have 7 players focused on the run and the back four handle the passes maybe we can pull one out. I still think that Mich is more physical and will find a way in a fairly close game.
The team was going to be tough, the question was did they have enough difference makers
to beat the very strong teams.
The years that we had good QB play, experienced OL play and good RB and at least one WR we could show up on anyones field and compete.
Toughness, running, solid defense can travel.
PSU is having a good year. Some of our best players are freshman, having us go on the road against Mich is a big ask.
With our secondary if we can have 7 players focused on the run and the back four handle the passes maybe we can pull one out. I still think that Mich is more physical and will find a way in a fairly close game.
The people in Ann Arbor were great when I went there the people were great.
One of my favorite lines was when I was parking but didn't know where the stadium was (how close). I asked the attendant "how far away is the stadium?" his response was "it's about a beer and a cigarette." I never had anyone define distance by booze and tobacco.
One of my favorite lines was when I was parking but didn't know where the stadium was (how close). I asked the attendant "how far away is the stadium?" his response was "it's about a beer and a cigarette." I never had anyone define distance by booze and tobacco.
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Perhaps and perhaps not. We'll know an answer to all these questions when it happens I've never seen a game actually played out on a message board. So here's to a memorable one!
For me, the biggest tell is how our weaknesses play to Michigan strengths and weaknesses.
Three Major Defensive Weaknesses
1. Outside run. Last year, we could not stop it. We lack a legit 5 tech end. Both ends were steamrolled early and often by every team with a back capable of getting outside or running off tackle. We cannot generate pressure up the middle to disrupt outside plays before they start. We have not been tested but so far, there is no reason to think we have improved. Corum's absence kept last year's game closer than it likely would have been otherwise with Michigan running Haskins into the middle of the D all day. Advantage Michigan.
2. Pass rush. We simply cannot generate a consistent pass rush with our front four. We need to bring two linebackers for the rush to matter. That was against CMU. Not Michigan. Advantage Michigan.
3. Pass Coverage. The secondary is great. Perhaps the best in the Big Ten. However, the middle of the field has been wide open in every game because Diaz sends multiple players (beyond the front four) to the QB on most plays. Michigan has the best tight in the conference at this point, and he was the backup entering the season. Furthermore, their QB has legs and the arm to attack this part of the field. Advantage Michigan.
Bottom line, our defensive weaknesses are Michigan's strengths on offense. Not a good match, especially on the road knowing they'll get their fair share of calls.
Three Major Defensive Weaknesses
1. Outside run. Last year, we could not stop it. We lack a legit 5 tech end. Both ends were steamrolled early and often by every team with a back capable of getting outside or running off tackle. We cannot generate pressure up the middle to disrupt outside plays before they start. We have not been tested but so far, there is no reason to think we have improved. Corum's absence kept last year's game closer than it likely would have been otherwise with Michigan running Haskins into the middle of the D all day. Advantage Michigan.
2. Pass rush. We simply cannot generate a consistent pass rush with our front four. We need to bring two linebackers for the rush to matter. That was against CMU. Not Michigan. Advantage Michigan.
3. Pass Coverage. The secondary is great. Perhaps the best in the Big Ten. However, the middle of the field has been wide open in every game because Diaz sends multiple players (beyond the front four) to the QB on most plays. Michigan has the best tight in the conference at this point, and he was the backup entering the season. Furthermore, their QB has legs and the arm to attack this part of the field. Advantage Michigan.
Bottom line, our defensive weaknesses are Michigan's strengths on offense. Not a good match, especially on the road knowing they'll get their fair share of calls.
Three Major Offensive Weaknesses
1. Offensive Line (Running). We are improved but the quality of competition leaves a lot to be desired. Linemen are executing the more complicated block combination better than last year but we are talking 25% vs. 10%. They need to be >than 50%. Furthermore, occasionally when they do execute well, they fail to finish with proper technique by directly engaging a defender vs shielding a defender/s from the play as is required, sometimes getting called for holding in the process. Michigan's front is the best we will play this year despite losing several NFL players. We were spotty against CMU and Northwestern to say the least. Advantage Michigan.
2. Offensive Line (Passing). Again, we have seen incremental progress against the likes of CMU, Ohio and Northwestern. None of which are Michigan. With that said, CMU was able to consistently beat blocks forcing Clifford to scramble. Advantage Michigan.
3. Deep Passing. It is no secret we have lacked a legit deep threat since Chris Godwin left for the NFL. A top ten deep receiver that can go after contested balls is essentially a requirement in this offense. We don't have it. This of course forces us to play 11 and 11 in the first and sometimes middle third of the field. Advantage Michigan.
1. Offensive Line (Running). We are improved but the quality of competition leaves a lot to be desired. Linemen are executing the more complicated block combination better than last year but we are talking 25% vs. 10%. They need to be >than 50%. Furthermore, occasionally when they do execute well, they fail to finish with proper technique by directly engaging a defender vs shielding a defender/s from the play as is required, sometimes getting called for holding in the process. Michigan's front is the best we will play this year despite losing several NFL players. We were spotty against CMU and Northwestern to say the least. Advantage Michigan.
2. Offensive Line (Passing). Again, we have seen incremental progress against the likes of CMU, Ohio and Northwestern. None of which are Michigan. With that said, CMU was able to consistently beat blocks forcing Clifford to scramble. Advantage Michigan.
3. Deep Passing. It is no secret we have lacked a legit deep threat since Chris Godwin left for the NFL. A top ten deep receiver that can go after contested balls is essentially a requirement in this offense. We don't have it. This of course forces us to play 11 and 11 in the first and sometimes middle third of the field. Advantage Michigan.
Penn State is leading the nation in QB pressures per PFF.
Micah Parsons is living proof that constant qb pressure is maybe the most effective form of defense. If you can pressure the qb every other or every third dropback you're probably better off than actually getting home a few times a game.
1. This is a fair point. Our D will have do a better job at outside contain. We’ll see if they’re up to it.
2. Completely disagree. Chop Robinson, in particular, can apply pressure without any blitz and DDS is incredibly talented and will be a pass rush force very soon.
3. This is simply ludicrous. Our pass coverage is among the best in the nation. Period.
Ludicrous? Really? Did you watch the Purdue, Ohio or CMU games? The middle of the field was wide open on almost every play. Period. The secondary does their job, they aren't the problem. The problem is one linebacker in coverage because we send two more often than not, against Purdue, Ohio and CMU.
Love to read your 3 weaknesses posts about Michigan.
Agreed. they've really played nobody. They started with Colorado State (who have since fired their coach), hawaii and UConn (who hadn't won a power five game in years). They have then played MD and Sparty.
MD was down 17-13 going into the 4th Quarter where they were outscored 17-14 to make the final 7 points (one score). MD had three turnovers while UM had one.
They then beat Iowa by 13. Then they beat Indiana but were tied at halftime and up by only 7 going into the 4th quarter.
to me, they look like a solid team but haven't played anyone as physical and deep as PSU...by a long shot. IF MD, Iowa and Indiana were competitive, we certainly will be. And UM could easily be surprised to be on the field against a team as physical as they are.
This game is very hard to read for me. Who is to say McCarthy can handle our pressure? They have some short routes, some underneath stuff, but they favor play action and 3+ second passing. Are they willing to adjust their plan of attack to getting the ball out in 2 seconds or less? Sure, we leave the middle of the field open. Can they break it for a TD? Or do they keep going to the well until we pressure a bad pass or strip the ball?
I think Michigan will get some yards. And if they can get their guys loose, it might be a long day.
On the reverse, I think we are the best offense they have faced. Maryland might have a slight edge at WR, but I think we have better, more dangerous backs and a definite edge at TE. Biggest problem we have offensively is consistency. We'll score twice then do nothing for 5 drives. It's aggravating to us, but imagine how the staff feels.
personally, I think this is a 45%/55% game with UM having the 55% probability to win since it is at the big house. PSU has already had two big games on the road this year; one was OK (Purdue) and the other they blew out Auburn (who played well against LSU last weekend).
These things often come down to mistakes like fumbles, INTs and untimely penalties.
Opponents Completion % is <50% and we lead the nation in PBUs (Pass Break-Ups).... But hey, we deserve better.....
I think our defensive line is pretty good and getting better. Getting Izzard back is big IMO.
I do agree that we leave the middle open when we blitz a lot. IMO the biggest key for us is Clifford.
But Wally said the middle was always open...
And to his credit, it is. Also, some of it is schematics. We've seen Brown playing the intermediate middle like a Mike. Our LBs are getting better too. Good enough yet? I don't know.
UM, best TE? That's debatable. I give you Brenton Strange, every bit as good if not better.
I think Chop Robinson is coming along as a run defending DE. We shall see on Saturday.
I think the major concern for PSU's defense - which you mentioned - is the inability to consistently defend the midrange midfield passes. They have been the Achilles heal the past few years and this year.
The middle is open due to the blitzes, but part of the blitz is clogging the QBs vision and throwing lanes to the center of the field. Many teams avoid these passes because they are the most dangerous(see Paterno, Joe). Lots of tipped passes and unseen defenders lurking there.
Agreed, so far teams have been able to sit on intermediate and short zones.
Gee I just saw that Penn State is 5th in the nation allowing 80 yards per game. I watched all of the games except one when I had to listen on the radio while driving back from the shore and I must have missed all those long outside runs they gave up. Penn State hadn’t been tested yet but neither has Michigan. For example, what defense juggernaut has Corum racked up all his yards against? Maybe I have my rose colored glasses on, but Penn State’s road wins at Purdue and Auburn are more impressive than anything Michigan has done. My memory may be faulty but I believe Indiana lost to Nebraska.
Correct, PSU's running defense has not given up all these plays that the football geniuses claim - go figure.
If that is the case then it comes down to the wire. All your points leave the reader that we have no shot. All scUM advantages. Do we have any advantages? Our secondary, right, but is that it in your opinion? If so, then scUM wins by 21 or more. They just run all over us and completely stuff our run game while pressuring Clifford into errors. All the makings of an easy scUM victory.
I asked him for Michigan's weaknesses and he's yet to reply.
He's always around to piss on PSU though. He's here before tough games. He's here when we lose. Seldom do you hear from him when we win.
1) Linebackers are the weak point in an overall good defense. The defense is actually better than most thought it would be back in August. Both the line and DBs have over performed.
2) First year starter at QB. This will only be JJ's 5th start. Still learning on the job. Offense has sputtered at times.
3) Missing three starters plus our backup QB to injury vs Indiana. We might get one back for Penn State. Missing three by game six seems to be slightly worse than average injury luck.
Which starters are out?
Is Cade hurt or what? I remember the week 1/2 starter shuffle, but I guess I missed his injury.
RT, I'm assuming the starter is out? Carted him out over his leg. What is the word on your backup? He filled in well the best I could tell.
You are actually right on the money: This is an even game this Saturday, the team that plays better will win.
You are dead on. He predicted we lose to Purdue. Kept quiet after our Auburn win.
The player that concerns me the most is not Corum but McCarthy. He is accurate with minimal mistakes. We have to get him out of his comfort zone and not let him pick up first downs running.
Ack. I actually missed another starter who was out.
Roman Wilson was out. Expected back for Penn State.
Erick All out. Starting potential all Big Ten tight end.
Nikhai Hill-Green out. Starting LB doubtful to play.
Trente Jones out. RT was hurt vs the Hoosiers. Status unknown, but unless taking him out on a stretcher was due to excessive caution, doubtful to play. You never want to lose a starter but our OL is deep this season.
And yes, Cade is out due to injury. Plus at least a couple of special teams players.
He went pretty hard on the Purdue game. They threw all over Iowa last year, similar to how we did with a healthy SC, but that was irrelevant. They beat Sparty when we couldn't. Those were the only metrics that mattered.
You can guarantee that if we lose Saturday, he'll have 3 paragraphs wrote by 5pm. And if we win, you won't see him until after the Minnesota game.
In regards to "outside run". Michigans starting RT looks like he's going to be out, with a high ankle sprain that he suffered vs. Indiana.
I'm sure the backup can hold just as well. 🙁
So you'd just like to play a cover two every down?
Diaz doesn't necessarily bring a LB; the scheme counts on the QB to make a read very quickly because you never know who is dropping into coverage. So while there will occasionally be guys open (no defensive scheme is perfect) the theory is that you create enough chaos (TOs, sacks, TFL) that it offset any plays they do hit. Add to this that McCarthy is young and hasn't played in a game of this magnitude before, nor has he seen a defense as talented or as creative as this before. I expect that he will make two or three big mistakes.
That's a way too optimistic (and rational) take. Listen to Wallace....every scheme we have will never work and we have weaknesses all over the field that scUM will easily take advantage of.
I watched those games and saw a 50% completion rate which in today's game is not very good. What's the point here?
