Thx for the insight, but that post feels like a lot more than just 2 cents worth.
Pretty robust for a 1st post. Welcome aboard!
Haha, thanks @PSUbluTX!-- been trying to write a little in 2019 to blow off steam instead of drinking IPAs, since I noticed after the holidays I was carrying about an extra 10-12 pounds worth of Two Hearted Ales around my mid-section. I guess we could say that post to me was actually worth a few hundred calories...
Anyways, after Retherford's tough bout with Rashidov, who lost a close match following that, I was thinking about how crazy deep and tough 65kg seems to be year in and year out- it's seemed to me to be the deepest weight recently and I was interested in looking into it a bit more. I think the below could be illustrative of that point, while it's certainl neither thorough nor scientific (would prob need to do a full medal analysis for deeper insight), and I thought it might be interesting to others.
Anyways, if of interest, here's a breakdown of the number of countries who have won World/Olympic gold at each weight the past 10 years, which I think can be used as an indicator re: depth/difficulty of bracket. Also, included are some notes as to concentration of those gold medals:
Weight - # Countries Winning Gold - Notes on Concentration
57kg - 5 countries - 9/10 for Geo/Rus/No.Kor
61kg - 4 countries - 7/10 for Russia/AZE
65kg - 7 countries - No country >2
70kg - 2 countries - 4/5 for Russia (weight has only existed 5 yrs)
74kg - 3 countries, 9/10 for Russia/US .
86kg- 6 countries - 4/10 for Rus
97kg - 5 countries - 6/10 for USA/Rus
125kg - 5 countries - 8/10 for Geo/Tur/Rus
As noted, the above is just golds, so some weights, most notably 74kg which is always very, very tough, could look a bit skewed due to all-time talents like Burroughs (5x). That said if you remove Burroughs, for instance,and pretend the runner-ups were champions (dubious with UWW seeding, I know), the # of countries represented doesn't change much: Iran's total gold count goes from 3 to 4, Russia's from 4 to 5, and Mongolia takes one instead of the US. If you look at Snyder's runner-up opponents, no additional countries are added to the country count if you eliminate him (Russia +2, Aze +1). 86kg, though, looks really deep with or without Sadulaev's 3 golds (the count goes to 8 countries without him, though you'd have to imagine a different Russian rep wins 1-3 of those golds)...The depth at 86kg was probably apparent this year to anyone who watched Taylor's run through that buzzsaw of a bracket.
Back to 65kg, though, over the past 10 year, wrestlers from 7 different countries have won World/Olympic Gold at 65/66kg- the most of any weight (with no country winning more than 2x there). And, amazingly, it's the only weight the U.S. hasn't even managed to medal in over that time frame despite some really great wrestlers manning the spot (including 3 hodge winners): Paulson, Ware, Metcalf, Frayer, Molinaro, Retherford, Stieber. By contrast, looking at the 2 adjacent weights, over the course of it's 5 years of existence 70KG has seen 4 Russian golds (by 4 different wrestlers) and one gold by Chamizo in a brief stop en route to 74kg. At 61KG, over 10 years, Azerbaijan and Russia have won 7/10 golds (Chamizo also won here), and 7 of 9 if you care to discount 2016 when it wasn't included as an Olympic weight.
What I think the above translates too "on the mats" is that if you look at a weight without much gold medal diversity, like 70kg, for instance, if you beat whichever rotational Russian didn't make the team at the Olympic weights of 65kg or 74kg, or if you're on the other side of the bracket, then you probably have a pretty good chance at a finals birth at a minimum. On the other hand, at 65kg, the seemingly deepest weight, you may have to win 2 or 3 finals-level matches before you even reach the finals. And, if you lose before the semis, there are really no safe bets to bring you back into repeche due to how deep and even the field has been.
To tie in Zain's Yarygin tournament, Rashidov, who has been great at 61kg as a 2x silver medalist (and perhaps the 61kg rep again this year?), lost to his Russian teammate, Chakeav, who's 3 year track record at 65kg Worlds/Olympics is: Bronze-NotTheRep-Bronze. Pretty similar to Batirov in 2016 who, after wrestlign Zain, lost to the Russian rep who took bronze. Essentially, unlike some other weights, there is literally no margin for error in any match at 65kg and everyone seems to not only have the ability to medal but also gold potential.
I certainly agree with others that Retherford has the tools to be in the mix- as was pointed out, Rashidov absolutely dominated Stieber in 2016 at 61KG. To my eye, Retherford may be able to take a page out of Molinaro's book from his great 2016 run from WTT through Rio (with the qualificaiton stops along the way). What I remember with Molinaro was constant bullying and pressuring of opponents up top with hand fighting to neutralize their offense, excellent situational awareness and capitalization, and picking his moments from neutral to hit shots he could cleanly and abruptly finish (often for 4 points).
Molinaro went to war each match on that run and there were no comfortable wins, but he just kept doing whatever it took to advance. Ultimately, he made it to the medal round where he lost what was a very tight match to Chamizo to give the US what I think was the best showing at 65kg in the last 10 years.
Of the current USA guys likely to be in the mix for 65kg, I think Zain can best match that mentality which I think is needed to go deep in that bracket. While Oliver, for instance, can certainly get himself up for any one match and probably has the tools to beat anyone in the world, I don't know yet if he would survive-and-advance in 3 or 4 consecutive brawls to make a legitimate run. I'd personally would love to see Zain crank up the physicality and punishing style a bit more than what we've seen his last few times out where's seemed at times a little more hesitant and reacitonary than in NCAA competition (to me at least). Looking forward to learning more at US Open/world team trials!
...
Circling back to Zain's Yarygin match....If anyone's looking for the playbook (well, not really) on how to beat Rashidov, look no further than Bonne Rodrigues, who at last year's worlds at the age of 35 took out the 23 year old with the attached "Bonne Bomb" below as time expired in the 1st. It was the only '5' I saw and seemed exponentially more deserving than Oliver's 5 vs. Retherford at that dual event a couple of months back). After, it seemed to take every ounce of energy in Rodrigues 'aging' body (all relative) to survive Rashdov's 2nd period onslaught and earn a 5-5 win that let the US head into the final day of worlds with hopes alive to beat Russia. (Those hopes vanished a bit too early on Day 3 when Green bafflingly lost to Mongolia).
That night my buddies and I were out maybe just a *bit* too late and happened to run into Rodrigues at one of those famed Budapest ruin bars where he went out to go celebrate. We bought him a congratulatory Red Bull as he abstains from polenka and (and presumably Two Hearted Ales) and despite basically not being able to communicate to each other he hung out with us a while-- clearly loved the international fanship before his flight back to Cuba. On the mat, though, man is a human highlight ree, and definitely worth a youtube search- been a huge fan ever since.
Sorry, that was like four IPAs worth....
