And don't bring up 2008 and 2009 or Michigan last year. None of those games involved Trace McSorley or Saquan Barkley.
Iowa Fans, GITT and tell me how you beat us
- Thread starter CampbellLION
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The Iowa fans have already offered a lot of thoughts/info on other Iowa threads. I think the general sense, reading their comments, is that they know Iowa's the underdog but if they can contain Barkley and run their offense, they have a chance in that stadium.
There hasn't been any chest-beating I've seen from Iowa fans, but they do think this team could do better than last year in part because they have a better passing game. Last year they really didn't have enough wideouts to begin with and then lost Riley McCarron for the PSU game.
And they assume PSU has the same Pass D. Iowa had 17 vs North Texas with 8 mins to go in the 4th qtr and they gave up 41 to ISU. If you want to see the chest thumping look on social media...it's there.
Only way we beat you is if our outside linebackers can contain Barkley when he gets out in space and lessen the damage and if we rattle mcsorely early. Thinking costly turnover or a big hit sack. I think Iowa will be able to put drives together and score on psu defense but will never win in a shootout. If Iowa's defense and outside linebackers in particular are up for the task I think they have the opportunity to win. If saquon can do what other great rbs have done in the past to Iowa's 4-3 defense (thinking David Johnson for UNI) then Iowa is in trouble. I actually do think it will be closer than Vegas does
Oh they definitely have some challenges.
But PSU has some challenges too.
The 1994 team, when they got down on the road at Illinois, you had The Drive to win it which happneed because that offensive line just dug in and overwhelmed a very good Illinois D-line at the end of the game.
This team, if they had to drive 90 yards at the end of a game, sometimes passing alone won't do it, you have to be able to run the ball some. I will feel more confident about this team when the O-line gells and starts creating some holes between the tackles.
I personally think they've been playing too many guys on the Oline for it to gel and I do think they will have a tough time running the ball between the tackles this weekend. Defensively I would stack the box and make their passing game win it and I think PSU is too athletic in the secondary for them to do that.
Iowa's defense is designed more for containment than sacks, and I think Pitt demonstrated that's the best way to defend the PSU offense.
Blitz-happy aggressive pursuit defenses like Wisconsin just play into McSorley's hands. Defensive systems that emphasize positional discipline (Iowa, Pitt, MSU) are the best bet against PSU.
If Iowa can keep him contained in the pocket and get pressure up the middle, that's what they need to do. But they won't be able to do it all day. He will get loose and make some plays. Same with Barkley. Teams can hold him to 20 yards on 6 carries, that kind of thing, and then he explodes when you least expect it. There is so little margin for error defending the guy.
That said, there's a sportswriter I know who has been covering Big Ten football for 25 years and he says in this conference, when and where the game is being played often outweighs the actual player matchups. Playing in Kinnick early in the season when parts of the PSU team are still works in progress ... this game probably will be very different from what people (particularly PSU fans) are expecting.
Blitz-happy aggressive pursuit defenses like Wisconsin just play into McSorley's hands. Defensive systems that emphasize positional discipline (Iowa, Pitt, MSU) are the best bet against PSU.
If Iowa can keep him contained in the pocket and get pressure up the middle, that's what they need to do. But they won't be able to do it all day. He will get loose and make some plays. Same with Barkley. Teams can hold him to 20 yards on 6 carries, that kind of thing, and then he explodes when you least expect it. There is so little margin for error defending the guy.
That said, there's a sportswriter I know who has been covering Big Ten football for 25 years and he says in this conference, when and where the game is being played often outweighs the actual player matchups. Playing in Kinnick early in the season when parts of the PSU team are still works in progress ... this game probably will be very different from what people (particularly PSU fans) are expecting.
As an Iowa fan I approach this game with extreme caution. Penn State will present an enormous challenge. But Iowa will still insist on playing the game to see if what all the pundits say is true.
I expect Barkley will get his 100 yards, but so will Wadley. I expect McSorely to throw for a couple hundred yards, but so will Stanley. I expect this will be a close game that will be decided late, perhaps by a field goal or turnover. In any event I will be there and can barely think about anything else this week.
I expect Barkley will get his 100 yards, but so will Wadley. I expect McSorely to throw for a couple hundred yards, but so will Stanley. I expect this will be a close game that will be decided late, perhaps by a field goal or turnover. In any event I will be there and can barely think about anything else this week.
My uneducated opinion is that Barkley is not going to beat anybody this year. he may have 1 or even 2 spectacular plays in a game. Where he helps is that everybody sells out to be contain him until they get punched in the mouth with a Hamilton or a Johnson or a Gesicki bomb. Then they forget about about Barkley until Trace hits him with a swing pass out of the backfield and the plan flip flops. Balance and too many weapons to contain.
I wish I had a dollar for every time someone botched Trace's last name. It's McSorley, not McSorely.
You're dead wrong on thinking you will throw for that many yards. Anything else, sure, might happen.
Iowa will only beat a great team like Penn State by being Iowa. The Hawks will play the base 4-3 and keep everything in front of them on defense...allowing the secondary to take chances when they present themslves without making mistakes ourselves The need for a good punting ame and KO coverage will be required to make PSU go on long drives to score...without making any drive killing mistakes. That is the Iowa way on defense.
On offense you can throw out anything you have seen outta the Iowa offense of recent years. Instead, think back to the Iowa offense of 2001 through 2009 not that Ken O'Keefe has returned to Iowa City to tutor Hawkeye QB's. Iowa will play with just three of the four robust running backs available. As usual we will see if PSU can match up with a couple of under the radar tight ends. Iowa will be able to move the ball against a mediorce Penn State defense, but I doubt this will be a shootout. If I had a gun to my head I'd guess something like 27-24ish.
If one is going to whip up on Iowa's 3 games so far, a critical eye will also cast a wary eye at just how good 2017 PSU is also.
PSU beat 3 Akrons after all.
I believe we find out about both teams this weekend, what they're truly good at and not good at. I don't really have any true idea on how this game turns out yet.
I think I know how good each team is. I just don't have proof yet.
PSU beat a mid level at best MAC team, a very down Pitt, and a bottom of the FBS barrel GSU. Iowa beat a struggling from huge graduation losses MW team, a getting better and really good offensively ISU, and a rebuilding, much improved C-USA team.
So, how good - really - are 2017 PSU and 2017 Iowa?
PSU beat 3 Akrons after all.
I believe we find out about both teams this weekend, what they're truly good at and not good at. I don't really have any true idea on how this game turns out yet.
I think I know how good each team is. I just don't have proof yet.
PSU beat a mid level at best MAC team, a very down Pitt, and a bottom of the FBS barrel GSU. Iowa beat a struggling from huge graduation losses MW team, a getting better and really good offensively ISU, and a rebuilding, much improved C-USA team.
So, how good - really - are 2017 PSU and 2017 Iowa?
Yes. You get some slack given that you are an Iowa fan, That was primarily directed at PSU fans.
I'd much rather play in Kinnick in September than November. Also, this is a very experienced PSU team. There will obviously still be some gelling going on, but not as much as most teams. Offense basically returns 10 starters.
Iowa's D has really struggled the past two weeks and have had little to no pass rush and the rush defense has been very suspect. I expect PSU to put up some points.
On the other side, I also expect Iowa to put up some points against PSU, but not enough.
PSU 41
Iowa 27
On the other side, I also expect Iowa to put up some points against PSU, but not enough.
PSU 41
Iowa 27
That seems about right to me. Iowa has a really good RB and a good OL. We've had problems stopping the run. I see Iowa scoring some points. But I don't know how Iowa contains our offense. Just too many weapons.
Iowa fan here. Everyone is focusing on the PSU O vs. Iowa D spoltight match-up and whether or not Iowa can slow the Lions enough to give the Hawkeyes a chance to win. So I will direct your attention to the other side of this ball game (Iowa O vs PSU D) because it is in that matchup that you will find (a) a big part of the question posed by the featured match-up and (b) the only correct answer to the thread challenge (how to beat us?) which is, of course, to score more points
.
But first, on the Iowa board this week I have tried to emphasize that open field tackling will likely be a biggest key for the Iowa defense. PSU is/has been a big play offense. If Iowa is poor at tackling this week, I don't see much hope. I'm counting on the D to wrap up the big play guys and hold them to mostly 4,5,6 yard gains instead of 30-40 yard gains. Saqoun and McSorely will break off a couple longer ones ... that's expected, but they must be limited.
On offense: the basic formula IMO for Iowa is power running mixed with PA passes resulting in 10,11,12 play clock-eating drives. Longer drives = more TOP = fewer PSU possessions = fewer PSU opportunities to score. Expecting a 60/40 run/pass ratio.
Iowa O vs. PSU D. No shocker, Iowa will look to set the tone in the trenches. Wadley runs spelled by Kelly-Martiin and/or Young. Look for more TE passes this year. Easley and VandeBerg are possession WRs - expect them to be targeted (Easley has been a favorite target so far).
.....the big question: can Iowa QB Nate Stanley rise to the occasion in his 4th start, first B10 game, national TV? So far, he has performed mostly well. 10TDs,1INT. Good decision making, decent completion percentage, clutch throws. The missing component so far is his accuracy on deep throws - if he has calibrated that this week watch out! Stanley has overthrown at least 4 wide-open receivers down field through 3 games. He could have been entering this contest with 14TDs thru 3 games. He's got an arm.
Of course, TOs and injuries always play a part in the outcome but there you have it. Iowa D tackles well and limits State to a few longer gains, bends to allow more FGs than TDs while Iowa O uses long drives to run clock. Wadley scores on sidewinder and Stanley throws a couple red zone TDs. throw in a FG and Iowa wins 27-23.
.But first, on the Iowa board this week I have tried to emphasize that open field tackling will likely be a biggest key for the Iowa defense. PSU is/has been a big play offense. If Iowa is poor at tackling this week, I don't see much hope. I'm counting on the D to wrap up the big play guys and hold them to mostly 4,5,6 yard gains instead of 30-40 yard gains. Saqoun and McSorely will break off a couple longer ones ... that's expected, but they must be limited.
On offense: the basic formula IMO for Iowa is power running mixed with PA passes resulting in 10,11,12 play clock-eating drives. Longer drives = more TOP = fewer PSU possessions = fewer PSU opportunities to score. Expecting a 60/40 run/pass ratio.
Iowa O vs. PSU D. No shocker, Iowa will look to set the tone in the trenches. Wadley runs spelled by Kelly-Martiin and/or Young. Look for more TE passes this year. Easley and VandeBerg are possession WRs - expect them to be targeted (Easley has been a favorite target so far).
.....the big question: can Iowa QB Nate Stanley rise to the occasion in his 4th start, first B10 game, national TV? So far, he has performed mostly well. 10TDs,1INT. Good decision making, decent completion percentage, clutch throws. The missing component so far is his accuracy on deep throws - if he has calibrated that this week watch out! Stanley has overthrown at least 4 wide-open receivers down field through 3 games. He could have been entering this contest with 14TDs thru 3 games. He's got an arm.
Of course, TOs and injuries always play a part in the outcome but there you have it. Iowa D tackles well and limits State to a few longer gains, bends to allow more FGs than TDs while Iowa O uses long drives to run clock. Wadley scores on sidewinder and Stanley throws a couple red zone TDs. throw in a FG and Iowa wins 27-23.
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If PSU doesn't turn the ball over or give up big plays to Iowa on special teams, we win by 2+ td's. So far we have been good in both areas, but it only takes 1 or 2 plays for a game to change.
Surprised how optimistic you guys are this year - we are a better team than last year in my opinion, I think that spells trouble for the Hawks. Good luck!Iowa fan here. Everyone is focusing on the PSU O vs. Iowa D spoltight match-up and whether or not Iowa can slow the Lions enough to give the Hawkeyes a chance to win. So I will direct your attention to the other side of this ball game (Iowa O vs PSU D) because it is in that matchup that you will find (a) a big part of the question posed by the featured match-up and (b) the only correct answer to the thread challenge (how to beat us?) which is, of course, to score more points
But first, on the Iowa board this week I have tried to emphasize that open field tackling will likely be a biggest key for the Iowa defense. PSU is/has been a big play offense. If Iowa is poor at tackling this week, I don't see much hope. I'm counting on the D to wrap up the big play guys and hold them to mostly 4,5,6 yard gains instead of 30-40 yard gains. Saqoun and McSorely will break off a couple longer ones ... that's expected, but they must be limited.
On offense: the basic formula IMO for Iowa is power running mixed with PA passes resulting in 10,11,12 play clock-eating drives. Longer drives = more TOP = fewer PSU possessions = fewer PSU opportunities to score. Expecting a 60/40 run/pass ratio.
Iowa O vs. PSU D. No shocker, Iowa will look to set the tone in the trenches. Wadley runs spelled by Kelly-Martiin and/or Young. Look for more TE passes this year. Easley and VandeBerg are possession WRs - expect them to be targeted (Easley has been a favorite target so far).
.....the big question: can Iowa QB Nate Stanley rise to the occasion in his 4th start, first B10 game, national TV? So far, he has performed mostly well. 10TDs,1INT. Good decision making, decent completion percentage, clutch throws. The missing component so far is his accuracy on deep throws - if he has calibrated that this week watch out! Stanley has overthrown at least 4 wide-open receivers down field through 3 games.
Of course, TOs and injuries always play a part in the outcome but there you have it. Iowa D tackles well and limits State to a few longer gains, bends to allow more FGs than TDs while Iowa O uses long drives to run clock. Wadley scores on sidewinder and Stanley throws a couple red zone TDs. throw in a FG and Iowa wins 27-23.
I think this game rests on the first quarter. If Iowa comes out and looks good, it will be a game through to the end (or possibly Iowa walking away, not likely). If the Lions get out on top early, you'll see empty seats opening up after halftime. The Hawks have to come out and play inspired early. That's my bottom line.
Iowa fan here- Everything in my brain says this will be a 2 td+ win for PSU.But Iowa always shows up for night games at Kinnick, granted this is a new season with lots of new faces that have never played in a night game at kinnick before but these guys have showed resilience from the start of the season.I think at a neutral field PSU wins easy but Kirk has a way of preparing these guys for big games at Kinnick,not really sure how we beat you.Yall are so dangerous on offense.I guess I would say the only way we beat you is if we can make you play our style of football,slow The game down and keeping it close at halftime. Nathan Stanley has been terrific this season,he will be tested this weekend.Im actually more anxious to see how he deals with a game like this,taking away the first half of the Wyoming game the kid has played lights out.The key will be minimizing explosive plays by PSU.But in the end I'll call it 34-24 PSU. With a late touchdown to seal the deal.
I agree. It's a team with leadership and experience in all the key places, on offense and defense. They should do fine.
The closest they came to playing in a really loud hostile environment last year (not counting Michigan) was Indiana, and that was a tough game but they avoided mistakes, took advantage of Indiana errors and got the win.
Barkley, McSorley, Gesicki are perform really well on the big stage, and Allen, Haley and Cabinda do the same on the D. All those guys (and really, probably the whole team) are going to love the crazy atmosphere at Kinnick. It will be the biggest game atmosphere since the Rose Bowl.
Nice post, thanks, that's exactly the scenario I see. Iowa will play really well, go toe to toe for 4 quarters, probably win most of the battles on the LOS, and PSU -- if they can avoid turnovers -- will pull it out on the strength of Barkley/Gesicki/McSorley, who are all-Big-Ten talented but also have a lot of experience in big games and hostile environments.
It will be a good test for young Stanley because PSU plays a high pressure defense and the PSU secondary is very talented. If he throws picks it could get out of reach. But if Iowa can run the ball (I expect the answer is yes) they will be able to sustain drives and chew clock and avoid the 3rd and longs that lead to sacks and turnovers.
Yeah last year PSU just played lights out the 1st quarter, the crowd got into it and Iowa just couldn't get traction. Iowa needs to play lights out early and get their crowd into it. That won't win the game for them by itself but it could lead to some turnovers or something that would put PSU back on their heels.
My nightmare scenario is that Iowa has a lot of success running the ball early, PSU is forced to bring safeties down and run blitz, which allows Stanley to throw downfield. PSU has to be able to at least hold their own against that Iowa O-line.
It will be fun to watch. On paper, Penn State is better by a good margin. One can never tell what happens if the game happens to be close in the second half. These are college kids, after all, not robots. Iowa made just enough plays and got enough breaks to be ahead in the middle of the third quarter last year against Michigan. At that point, the Michigan squad had pressure on it to actually play well to win the game and the Iowa sideline started to believe they could actually win. For Iowa fans we hope we see a repeat.
The OL seems to be a bit better at pass protection than they were last year, but maybe not quite as good at run blocking. Probably due to a few moving parts with the recent injuries we've sustained (Boettger's achilles tear being the worst).
With the zone scheme it seems like such a choreographed situation that if the guy next to you is a bit unfamiliar, it throws everything out of whack. Pass pro is more just block the guy in front of you (or guy who will be on a stunt/blitz). We will miss Butler (RB2) here the most as he was very good at blitz pickup. I would imagine Young will do fine here as well, but was #3 for a reason.
The main reason Hawkeye fans are somewhat optimistic about beating State this year is the play of new QB Nate Stanley. We knew the Hawkeye defense would be pretty good, the questions were on offense. Now, through 3 games, Iowa fans like what they have in Stanley, he is skilled, but this is his first big test so we'll find out more about him Saturday night.
Turnovers, special teams play, and how the referees call the game will play a big roll in who wins this one. If the Iowa OL is allowed to get away with holding, It's going to be a long night for the PSU defense.
Iowa fan here. Everyone is focusing on the PSU O vs. Iowa D spoltight match-up and whether or not Iowa can slow the Lions enough to give the Hawkeyes a chance to win. So I will direct your attention to the other side of this ball game (Iowa O vs PSU D) because it is in that matchup that you will find (a) a big part of the question posed by the featured match-up and (b) the only correct answer to the thread challenge (how to beat us?) which is, of course, to score more points
On offense: the basic formula IMO for Iowa is power running mixed with PA passes resulting in 10,11,12 play clock-eating drives. Longer drives = more TOP = fewer PSU possessions = fewer PSU opportunities to score. Expecting a 60/40 run/pass ratio.
This is the correct matchup to look out for. What scares me as a PSU fan is that if Iowa sustains long drives they will tire out of defense - if our offense continues to not be able to sustain drives (91st in the country on 3rd down conversion with the 89th toughest schedule) the defense continues to go right back on the field. The scenario above is exactly why we lost the Rose Bowl. Someone put it perfectly but this offensive style has been proven - with other teams too - to be able to beat the bottom 85 teams - where it is inconsistent is with the top 25 RPI teams which Iowa could be.
What has stumped this PSU offense since last season is 4-man pressures on exotic DL looks where we don't properly identify who is rushing. Expect a couple wrinkles on 3rd and long with only two down linemen and about 4 other people all crowding the line but only 4 rush while the other 7 drop into zone coverage.
I think you guys have a chance to pull off an upset, but if you hang any of your hopes on a LB containing Barkley in space then it will be a long evening for your Hawkeyes.
Because certainly the only way the Hawks can contend is if they get away with holding. At any rate, Iowa must win field position. I don't think they can sustain long drives against the Lion defense. With a short field, they can score some points.
Hope all the fans coming to Iowa City have a great time. Stop by the big yellow van on the north side of Melrose and ask for the cowtipper. I'll hook you up with some food, beer, and fun.
I'm optimistic the B1G refereeing has finally come out of the dark ages. Parry and Honig and Witvoet are retired. New officials have gradually been added from the new Big Ten territories. Replay prevents so many mistakes and eliminates the opportunity for old-boy shenanigans.
I saw an awful lot of close, high-profile Big Ten games where the officials were competent, fair and did not play a role in the outcome. I'm optimistic that will continue this year.
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