Football ESPN FPI projects the remaining games on Penn State Football's schedule

[Richie O]

Happy Valley Insider - ESPN FPI projects the remaining games on Penn State Football's schedule

Taking a look at Penn State Football's 2023 schedule and chances in each of their remaining games this season.

pennstate.rivals.com

 

[ryoder1]

Ohio State too low, Mich too high.

 

[Obliviax]

Ohio State too low, Mich too high.

yeah..don't see how our chances to beat UM are better than tOSU except for it being a home game. tOSU hasn't looked good and their QB has looked mediocre at best. I also think Iowa is still a much more difficult opponent than ILL or MD or Sparty (now

 

[Online Persona]

yeah..don't see how our chances to beat UM are better than tOSU except for it being a home game. tOSU hasn't looked good and their QB has looked mediocre at best. I also think Iowa is still a much more difficult opponent than ILL or MD or Sparty (now

ESPN FPI is really odd at this point. I wouldn't go by it.

 

[Erial_Lion]

yeah..don't see how our chances to beat UM are better than tOSU except for it being a home game. tOSU hasn't looked good and their QB has looked mediocre at best. I also think Iowa is still a much more difficult opponent than ILL or MD or Sparty (now

Being a home game is a pretty big deal…talking almost a 6 point swing.

 

[Obliviax]

Being a home game is a pretty big deal…talking almost a 6 point swing.

I would normally agree but I don't think home-field advantage is that big of a deal for high-quality and big-game experienced teams.

 

[Online Persona]

I would normally agree but I don't think home-field advantage is that big of a deal for high-quality and big-game experienced teams.

It has been though in our Michigan series. We've struggled mightily there and done pretty well at home.

 

[LandoComando]

If those percentages don't illustrate a 2 game schedule what will?
Honestly, this shows Penn State has finally moved into that top tier where you're expected to beat lesser teams. Our season basically will always come down to 2 games now.

 

[ryoder1]

It has been though in our Michigan series. We've struggled mightily there and done pretty well at home.

I do think playing at home is a big advantage for us just not to the point where we have a 67% chance to win.

I think that scUM game is probably 50/50 or up to 55/45 in our favor.

As for the OSU game I can see us as a 40-45% chance to win. We always lose there and that has to come into consideration. And of course, OSU, will most likely be rounding into form with McCord starting to click with his wide receivers as we come to town. The other factor with OSU is I think they have an improved defense although we won't really know this until they face their first real opponent, ND, in a couple weeks.

 

[Obliviax]

It has been though in our Michigan series. We've struggled mightily there and done pretty well at home.

I am not disagreeing but that record is incomplete between UM coaching changes and PSU sanctions.

We lost the last two games: one home and one away.
The previous two we won, on home and one away.

Before that was Harbaugh starting his program.

 

[Online Persona]

I do think playing at home is a big advantage for us just not to the point where we have a 67% chance to win.

I think that scUM game is probably 50/50 or up to 55/45 in our favor.

As for the OSU game I can see us as a 40-45% chance to win. We always lose there and that has to come into consideration. And of course, OSU, will most likely be rounding into form with McCord starting to click with his wide receivers as we come to town. The other factor with OSU is I think they have an improved defense although we won't really know this until they face their first real opponent, ND, in a couple weeks.

Those seem like reasonable odds given what we have seen of the teams in 2 weeks.

 

[fastlax16]

FPI heavily ranks recruiting rankings IIRC. They still have Alabama #1.

2023 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

 

[PennSt8er]

I do think playing at home is a big advantage for us just not to the point where we have a 67% chance to win.

I think that scUM game is probably 50/50 or up to 55/45 in our favor.

As for the OSU game I can see us as a 40-45% chance to win. We always lose there and that has to come into consideration. And of course, OSU, will most likely be rounding into form with McCord starting to click with his wide receivers as we come to town. The other factor with OSU is I think they have an improved defense although we won't really know this until they face their first real opponent, ND, in a couple weeks.

Big difference between home-at-night and home-at-noon. I don't think home swings that big for us for UM tbh.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Big difference between home-at-night and home-at-noon. I don't think home swings that big for us for UM tbh.

From a handicapping standpoint, it makes very little difference.

 

[sdwcpa]

In its own way this list really puts into perspective that the Big 10 east is the biggest beneficiary of the 12 team playoff. The big 3 only have to split the games between themselves and take care of business elsewhere and all 3 would be guaranteed a playoff spot.