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Discussion of Playoff teams and Bowl Match-Ups

GregInPitt

GregInPitt

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As PSU's season is over and there will likely be very few other bowl games, the playoff seems to be the only college football going forward for the 2020 season....

I'll throw this out. I thought the talking heads were off their rocker yesterday when they implied that the Domers should be in the playoff even though they got blown out by Clemson yesterday. Isn't it about how you finish? Isn't the playoff supposed to include the best teams (currently 4) at the end of the season? There is not another team that could give Clemson, or one of the other playoff teams, a better game than the Domers?

Haven't we seen enough of ND to know that they are not in the same league as Clemson and Bama, and wouldn't it be more entertaining and fair to college football fans to include a team that may have a chance to compete in the playoff? Surely Florida showed much more in their game vs Bama to justify a spot in the playoff. Cincy is still undefeated. ......
 
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If not ND, then I would think they would choose A&M over Florida who has dropped their last 2 games

but I believe they will pick ND
 
fastlax16 said:
We beat osu in 16 and consensus was we weren’t in their league...

They squeaked by Clemson without Lawrence and the got crushed when he was back.
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Didn’t ever hear that we “weren’t in Ohio State’s league” in 2016.
 
GregInPitt said:
As PSU's season is over and there will likely be very few other bowl games, the playoff seems to be the only college football going forward for the 2020 season....

I'll throw this out. I thought the talking heads were off their rocker yesterday when they implied that the Domers should be in the playoff even though they got blown out by Clemson yesterday. Isn't it about how you finish? Isn't the playoff supposed to include the best teams (currently 4) at the end of the season? There is not another team that could give Clemson, or one of the other playoff teams, a better game than the Domers?

Haven't we seen enough of ND to know that they are not in the same league as Clemson and Bama, and wouldn't it be more entertaining and fair to college football fans to include a team that may have a chance to compete in the playoff? Surely Florida showed much more in their game vs Bama to justify a spot in the playoff. Cincy is still undefeated. ......
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Since no one is in Bama or Clemson’s league, there’s no sense trying to pick a team that will compete with them the best. How about for once we pick a team that’s most deserving and I’d say it’s Cincy just because A&M and ND both showed they don’t belong there.
 
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GregInPitt said:
As PSU's season is over and there will likely be very few other bowl games, the playoff seems to be the only college football going forward for the 2020 season....

I'll throw this out. I thought the talking heads were off their rocker yesterday when they implied that the Domers should be in the playoff even though they got blown out by Clemson yesterday. Isn't it about how you finish? Isn't the playoff supposed to include the best teams (currently 4) at the end of the season? There is not another team that could give Clemson, or one of the other playoff teams, a better game than the Domers?

Haven't we seen enough of ND to know that they are not in the same league as Clemson and Bama, and wouldn't it be more entertaining and fair to college football fans to include a team that may have a chance to compete in the playoff? Surely Florida showed much more in their game vs Bama to justify a spot in the playoff. Cincy is still undefeated. ......
Click to expand...

A few responses.

(1) I don't think it's about "how you finish". The CFP evaluates the entire body of work -- as they should. I remember when the NCAA tournament selection committee used to put a lot of weight on a team's last 10 games, but even they did away with that because it allowed recency bias to influence selections. A game played in September should mean as much as a game played in November. At least in my view.

(2) If the CFP really is about the best 4 teams at the current moment, then one could make an argument for Oklahoma or UNC being above Ohio State or Notre Dame. But that's not how this is supposed to work.

(3) Using a team's performance in prior seasons becomes very problematic for obvious reasons. If you're going to punish ND for getting blown out in 2018 by Clemson or by Alabama in 2012, then how do you treat Texas A&M who -- in 2018 -- lost 4 games and played in the mighty Gator Bowl? Certainly you have to take both into account, right? At least ND has a win over Clemson -- something Texas A&M wasn't able to get in their meetings. Factoring in prior seasons just isn't tenable. Teams change year to year.

(4) The CFP isn't about spreading the wealth around and giving other teams a chance if they're not among the best 4 teams in the country. I personally don't like how the same 3 teams are always in it, but ultimately, you either need to expand the playoff or beat them.

(5) Florida showed a lot against Alabama. But they also lost to unranked 5-loss LSU. You can't factor in one and ignore the other.
 
NittanyIllinois said:
A few responses.

(1) I don't think it's about "how you finish". The CFP evaluates the entire body of work -- as they should. I remember when the NCAA tournament selection committee used to put a lot of weight on a team's last 10 games, but even they did away with that because it allowed recency bias to influence selections. A game played in September should mean as much as a game played in November. At least in my view.

(2) If the CFP really is about the best 4 teams at the current moment, then one could make an argument for Oklahoma or UNC being above Ohio State or Notre Dame. But that's not how this is supposed to work.

(3) Using a team's performance in prior seasons becomes very problematic for obvious reasons. If you're going to punish ND for getting blown out in 2018 by Clemson, then how do you treat Texas A&M who -- in 2018 -- lost 4 games and played in the mighty Gator Bowl? Certainly you have to take both into account, right? At least ND has a win over Clemson -- something Texas A&M wasn't able to get in their meetings.

(4) The CFP isn't about spreading the wealth around and giving other teams a chance if they're not among the best 4 teams in the country. I personally don't like how the same 3 teams are always in it, but ultimately, you either need to expand the playoff or beat them.

(5) Florida showed a lot against Alabama. But they also lost to unranked 5-loss LSU. You can't factor in one and ignore the other.
Click to expand...
I’d love to see UNC play a top team.
 
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LionJim said:
I’d love to see UNC play a top team.
Click to expand...

They did.......Notre Dame. And lost by 2 TDs :)


In seriousness, though......when they're on, they're damn near unstoppable on offense. But an elite defense can definitely scheme against them, and Mack's defense isn't particularly good.

There's a lot of UNC love right now -- they're probably going to get a NY6 bowl invite, for instance -- in part because of how they finished the season. People conveniently forget they lost to Virginia and Florida State. Which is why I'm a big believer in taking the entire resume into account.
 
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Tosu should not get in by virtue of their light schedule and lackluster performance yesterday against a good, but not great, Northwestern team. However, they likely will make it simply because they’re the b1g champion and are undefeated. Regardless, they’ll get throttled by bama or clemson.
 
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Erial_Lion said:
They beat Clemson this year, so I don’t know how you could argue that they aren’t in the same league.
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They beat, barely, Clemson when Clemson was missing the best player in college football, the player that will be the overall #1 NFL draft choice. That hardly requires I "argue" that they are not in the same league with them when both are at full rosters, as the game yesterday was not competitive, 34-10 with ND still playing their starters to the end, trying to save face and being outgained 541 yards to 263 even so.

It is not without reason that any of the next 10-15 teams in the rankings would have been just as competitive against Clemson. And since it is known that ND will not give Clemson a competitive game, why would ND get a 2nd chance when there are other teams that deserve a 1st chance?
 
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I am not sure OSU has a body of work that warrants inclusion in the playoffs. Indiana and NW both could have beaten them, and to be honest we hung around too close for comfort with the Buckeyes. This OSU team is not up to typical standards and will get blown out by Bama or Clemson. Hell, I am not sure they could hang with ND either.
 
I never thought it would be possible. But unfortunately the present playoff system and who is selected has become as arbitrary and capricious as when the National champion was determined by coaches or sportswriters who never even witnessed many of the ultimate champions actually play. However, I guess that’s what we call progress.
 
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I'm sure it will be Alabama , Clemson, Ohio State and ND. When looking at the total circumstances ND beat Clemson it OT when Clemson was down Lawrence and 3 defensive starters I think, hence why Clemson stayed put even after a loss. I always tried to weigh if this was fair , not putting weight behind a loss because a team didn't have players available. We have seen the playoff committee keep teams relevant in the playoff because of those circumstances. We also saw IE 2016 the bad Michigan loss PSU had as one of the reasons at 2 losses we wouldn't get in. That Michigan game we had what all our starting linebackers out as well as others. I also know the pitt loss was there but Pitt beat Clemson and yet Pitt was a bad loss for us but didn't alter Clemsons course. To me the process is to inconsistent and there is no clear selection path to follow in selecting the top 4 teams. Does Ohio State carry the same weight as say Florida and Texas AM not playing the same amount of games. If we look at players being out of contests as a factor in wether that game should carry the same weight then shouldn't a player throwing a shoe and getting a penalty that ultimately cost Florida the LSU game also be an outside factor. Its gotten to the point that when you let other variables other then just wins, losses and the level of how a team is playing dictate why games were won and lost you ask for problems.
 
I'm really surprised that they didn't make it eight teams this year. Would have been the perfect opportunity
 
bison13 said:
I'm really surprised that they didn't make it eight teams this year. Would have been the perfect opportunity
Click to expand...
History is littered with Empires, countries, businesses and people who have collapsed and disappeared because of foolish decisions. Why should college football be any different?
 
This is the biggest joke the committee basically just told the Group of 5 that you have no seat at the table ever.
 
NittanyIllinois said:
A few responses.

(1) I don't think it's about "how you finish". The CFP evaluates the entire body of work -- as they should. I remember when the NCAA tournament selection committee used to put a lot of weight on a team's last 10 games, but even they did away with that because it allowed recency bias to influence selections. A game played in September should mean as much as a game played in November. At least in my view.

(2) If the CFP really is about the best 4 teams at the current moment, then one could make an argument for Oklahoma or UNC being above Ohio State or Notre Dame. But that's not how this is supposed to work.

(3) Using a team's performance in prior seasons becomes very problematic for obvious reasons. If you're going to punish ND for getting blown out in 2018 by Clemson or by Alabama in 2012, then how do you treat Texas A&M who -- in 2018 -- lost 4 games and played in the mighty Gator Bowl? Certainly you have to take both into account, right? At least ND has a win over Clemson -- something Texas A&M wasn't able to get in their meetings. Factoring in prior seasons just isn't tenable. Teams change year to year.

(4) The CFP isn't about spreading the wealth around and giving other teams a chance if they're not among the best 4 teams in the country. I personally don't like how the same 3 teams are always in it, but ultimately, you either need to expand the playoff or beat them.

(5) Florida showed a lot against Alabama. But they also lost to unranked 5-loss LSU. You can't factor in one and ignore the other.
Click to expand...
So basically you’re saying it’s all about the eye test.
 
Thomas1945 said:
I never thought it would be possible. But unfortunately the present playoff system and who is selected has become as arbitrary and capricious as when the National champion was determined by coaches or sportswriters who never even witnessed many of the ultimate champions actually play. However, I guess that’s what we call progress.
Click to expand...
This is worse than when the writer’s picked the NC because now there are far fewer people involved.
 
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I will go on record to say

I would rather my daughter date R Kelly or Charlie Sheen then hear Brian Kelly claim he is one of the four best teams or hear Jimbo Fisher say he is confused how AM is it in the top 4.
Two teams are deserving

Bama and Clemson

the others shouldn’t be in discussions.
 
AWS1022 said:
So basically you’re saying it’s all about the eye test.
Click to expand...

Uhhh, no. Please re-read my post.

In many places, I argue AGAINST the eye test.

The entire body of work matters. The CFP isn't about picking the 4 hottest teams. CFP performances in prior seasons do not matter. And the CFP isn't about giving other teams a chance because you're sick of the same teams making it.

Those are my points. None of that has anything to do with the "eye test".
 
NittanyIllinois said:
Uhhh, no. Please re-read my post.

In many places, I argue AGAINST the eye test.

The entire body of work matters. The CFP isn't about picking the 4 hottest teams. CFP performances in prior seasons do not matter. And the CFP isn't about giving other teams a chance because you're sick of the same teams making it.

Those are my points. None of that has anything to do with the "eye test".
Click to expand...
Your whole post is about picking who are the “best” teams, which is all about the eye test. If you don’t win your conference, you shouldn’t make it....looking beyond that is completely about the eye test. “Body of work” is ESPN-speak for eye test.
 
Norm Petersin said:
Now ND gets to get pounded by Bama
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You know, at the turn of the 20th century - if I recall some sports history - Harvard and Yale were the big names in college football.
Point is, of course, that times change and I believe ND’s time is over. Great run but in games like this over the last 25 years they get beat like a cheap drum. If Alabama brings their best, this is a blowout.
 
Would have liked to see A&M in and ND out. I wonder how many more pts by Clemson would have had committee leave ND out?
 
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AWS1022 said:
Your whole post is about picking who are the “best” teams, which is all about the eye test. If you don’t win your conference, you shouldn’t make it....looking beyond that is completely about the eye test. “Body of work” is ESPN-speak for eye test.
Click to expand...

Aside from the factual inaccuracy of "my entire post is about picking who the best teams are", even equating "best teams" with "eye test" is a misnomer.

Now, would I argue that there's absolutely no place for the eye test? Of course not. Never in the history of this sport or college basketball will or should the "eye test" be removed. It has never happened, and will never happen. Period.

But it should only be one factor among others. The data also matters -- SOS, strength of record, and so forth. Record vs. ranked teams matters. Margin of victory. Conference championship. And so on.
 
NittanyIllinois said:
Aside from the factual inaccuracy of "my entire post is about picking who the best teams are", even equating "best teams" with "eye test" is a misnomer.

Now, would I argue that there's absolutely no place for the eye test? Of course not. Never in the history of this sport or college basketball will or should the "eye test" be removed. It has never happened, and will never happen. Period.

But it should only be one factor among others. The data also matters -- SOS, strength of record, and so forth. Record vs. ranked teams matters. Margin of victory. Conference championship. And so on.
Click to expand...
Hard to use SOS when the teams play in different conferences and play different teams. Ranked teams are based on someone’s eye test, so in and of itself it’s subjective. Margin of victory means rack it up against the bad teams. It should all come down to conference championships, unless they’re going to expand the field to 16 teams or so....that’s how the basketball tournament works. With only four slots available, the eye test should be removed or else it becomes a popularity contest (like it has been since the CFP started).
 
GregInPitt said:
As PSU's season is over and there will likely be very few other bowl games, the playoff seems to be the only college football going forward for the 2020 season....

I'll throw this out. I thought the talking heads were off their rocker yesterday when they implied that the Domers should be in the playoff even though they got blown out by Clemson yesterday. Isn't it about how you finish? Isn't the playoff supposed to include the best teams (currently 4) at the end of the season? There is not another team that could give Clemson, or one of the other playoff teams, a better game than the Domers?

Haven't we seen enough of ND to know that they are not in the same league as Clemson and Bama, and wouldn't it be more entertaining and fair to college football fans to include a team that may have a chance to compete in the playoff? Surely Florida showed much more in their game vs Bama to justify a spot in the playoff. Cincy is still undefeated. ......
Click to expand...
Cincy shouldn't be in the discussion. Thomas Jefferson high school is undefeated too. Cincy would lose by at least 50 points to any top team. They don't belong.
 
Norm Petersin said:
Now ND gets to get pounded by Bama
Click to expand...

Yep. Thanks to the championship committee for subjecting us all to another boring blow out of Notre Dame in a playoff game. Hell, we just got the preview only yesterday when Notre Dame got totally destroyed by Clemson.

If this doesn’t bump the playoffs to 8 teams, then I don’t know what will. The committee has now told all non P5 teams they have no chance of ever qualifying for the current playoff system.

They’ve also pretty much told most of the P5 that unless they are undefeated, they will likely never see a playoff spot as well.

There are 3 spots reserved before most seasons even begin- Bama, Clemson, and Ohio St. It doesn’t even matter if one of those teams only plays half a season- their spot is reserved.

Everyone else is playing for the final spot but, honestly, in most years that’s also reserved for Notre Dame or Oklahoma.
 
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