Defense to offense

[bdgan]

PSU has been pretty good on defense the past few years but has struggled on offense. Is this about to switch?

The only seniors on PSU's offense are Dowrey, Gaia, Laurent, and Palmer and PSU has much higher rated OL prospects coming up behind these kids. The only junior I can imagine who whould consider leaving early for the NFL is Godwin and PSU is loaded at WR. I have to think that PSU will have a pretty good offense in 2017.

The defense loses Schwan at DE and Golden at DB but there are several highly recruited players behind them at their respective positions. The questions are at DT where we're not sure what we have this fall, but none of them graduate. If Givens isn't quite ready this fall he certainly should be ready by next fall. Linebacker has to replace Wartman & Bell. I sure hope Cabinda doesn't leave early. It will be very interesting to see how Bowen & Cooper develop this fall.

At this point it seems as though PSU could be getting stronger on offense while rebuilding on defense.

 

[83wuzme]

As far as defense going forward, LB is going to be problematic. We really need a couple more box LB's on the roster. Reeder leaving definitely hurt. He probably would have played a lot this year and started next.

I guess the question is whether the DL and DB's can makeup for the shortfalls at LB. I think we are in good shape at DE. DT is hard to say. We have depth, but I don't know if any of them are what you might call impact talent. They are mostly young and should improve. DB, I think we are in better shape. Allen, Haley and especially Reid seem solid and reliable. Golden is OK, as is Apke. Decent DB depth as well.
As LB coach, Pry should know what he needs to do as far the the LB corps and appears to be addressing it for 2017. We do need at least one more good ILB in the 2017 class.

 

[n1tlion]

Until we see how the offensive line and the new QBs fair in this new offense against Kent St. I think it's premature to think our offense will be stronger...I wouldn't even consider
Kent St a gimme with the new pieces we need to put into place on offense...I feel both offense and defense could take a step back this year...but be well set up for next year...

 

[bdgan]

Until we see how the offensive line and the new QBs fair in this new offense against Kent St. I think it's premature to think our offense will be stronger...I wouldn't even consider
Kent St a gimme with the new pieces we need to put into place on offense...I feel both offense and defense could take a step back this year...but be well set up for next year...

What new pieces? Everybody but Hack and Mangiro are back from last year.

 

[n1tlion]

What new pieces? Everybody but Hack and Mangiro are back from last year.

New offensive system with new QBs and potentially a true freshman Center (McGovern) id say those are some MAJOR new pierces...not to mention almost an entire new defensive line...

 

[LaJolla Lion]

I think this season at least early on there will be growing pains on the defense. The back 7 is a very solid group. Startling LB's are really good, but the depth is a question there. CB roster is as good as it has been in a long time. Safety's all have experience and there is some talent there. Basically the green part of the DL will determine the ceiling of this defense. If they struggle, the D takes a step back which is understandable to sane fans. If they exceed expectations, maybe it's a smaller step back.

The offense will be better IMO. QB in the gun that can move should lead to less negative plays. PSU was near the bottom in the nation on first and third down which killed so many drives. The OL out there last year was asked to protect a slow QB with no running game and depended really on a true frosh for a spark. The OL scheme this year is much simpler and the green QB has an AA RB, 2 All B!G WR's, and a big TE to find ways to get the ball in addition to many others.

 

[bdgan]

New offensive system with new QBs and potentially a true freshman Center (McGovern) id say those are some MAJOR new pierces...not to mention almost an entire new defensive line...

I was replying to the poster who said it was premature to say that our offense will be stronger, that even Kent State wasn't a sure thing, and that he expected the offense to take a step back this year.

How many teams return 9 starters on offense? I realize that a lot rides on the QB but it's not like Hack was dominant for us last year.

9 returning starters, more experience, more depth, a few highly rated freshmen, and a new offensive coordinator. IMO PSU has a big problem if this offense isn't better than it was last year.

I wasn't talking about the defense but the DL is certainly a big concern. Not so much at the other positions.

 

[Obliviax]

As far as I can tell, it doesn't look like any of the teams we play have a premier passing attack. UM and Sparty are trying new QB's and tOSU, with probably the best QB in the B1G, are light at WR. Sparty probably has the best WR's in the B1G but is starting a new QB. At the same time, we've got two very good CB's this season and some good S's as well. If the LB stay healthy, I suspect we cheat up a little to stop the run; counting on our CB's to keep the WR's marginalized. So the young D-line doesn't scare me as much as it might in normal years.

Regardless all of that, we are not playing a ball control, clock control offense. We have as talented an offense as anyone in the B1G (assuming our QB can play at a B+ level). I also think we will surprise some people on offense. I see several 41 to 31 (score) ball games. Perhaps even a couple of 50 pointers in there.

 

[n1tlion]

I was replying to the poster who said it was premature to say that our offense will be stronger, that even Kent State wasn't a sure thing, and that he expected the offense to take a step back this year.

How many teams return 9 starters on offense? I realize that a lot rides on the QB but it's not like Hack was dominant for us last year.

9 returning starters, more experience, more depth, a few highly rated freshmen, and a new offensive coordinator. IMO PSU has a big problem if this offense isn't better than it was last year.

I wasn't talking about the defense but the DL is certainly a big concern. Not so much at the other positions.

I'm just tempering my expectations more than most...any time you have inexperienced QBs there will be growing pains...all skill position talent is meaningless if the QBs struggle to get the receivers the ball and the offensive line struggles to open up running lanes...we've seen many times, experience doesn't necessarily translate into improvement. So yes Kent St isn't a gimme for me...and will go a long way towards my feelings for our chances against Pitt

 

[Madsol]

Until we see how the offensive line and the new QBs fair in this new offense against Kent St. I think it's premature to think our offense will be stronger...I wouldn't even consider
Kent St a gimme with the new pieces we need to put into place on offense...I feel both offense and defense could take a step back this year...but be well set up for next year...

If the offense takes a step back this year, then Franklin needs to resign and Moorhead needs to give up football. The offense last year was so pedestrian and so uninspired that I simply can't envision anything we put out there this year being a step back from last year, if nothing else simply from an experience standpoint. We might not be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate but honestly I haven't even considered the possibility of the offense not being improved. For me, it's just a question of HOW MUCH improved will this offense be.

 

[n1tlion]

This is very short sighted logic...Franklin resigns, and you replace the coaching staff,
Then what? A new coach with a new system with guys that aren't recruited for that system, if some Of the higher potential guys even stay or stick with their commitments? Talk about taking a few steps back..

 

[Madsol]

This is very short sighted logic...Franklin resigns, and you replace the coaching staff,
Then what? A new coach with a new system with guys that aren't recruited for that system, if some Of the higher potential guys even stay or stick with their commitments? Talk about taking a few steps back..

C'mon, it was hyperbole. Just my way of saying I thought the offense last year was so bad that I cannot fathom this year's offense taking a step back from last year without concluding that something really major is wrong.

 

[thecoolestfish]

As far as I can tell, it doesn't look like any of the teams we play have a premier passing attack. UM and Sparty are trying new QB's and tOSU, with probably the best QB in the B1G, are light at WR. Sparty probably has the best WR's in the B1G but is starting a new QB. At the same time, we've got two very good CB's this season and some good S's as well. If the LB stay healthy, I suspect we cheat up a little to stop the run; counting on our CB's to keep the WR's marginalized. So the young D-line doesn't scare me as much as it might in normal years.

Regardless all of that, we are not playing a ball control, clock control offense. We have as talented an offense as anyone in the B1G (assuming our QB can play at a B+ level). I also think we will surprise some people on offense. I see several 41 to 31 (score) ball games. Perhaps even a couple of 50 pointers in there.

I agree with almost all of this (and in fact have been preaching the same). The only thing I don't agree with is, assuming our LBs stay moderately healthy, I don't see many teams scoring 31 on us.

While we're definitely going to experience a drop off at DL, because of the back seven, I think that on the net, our defense is going to be at least equal to last year's defense. Plus, I'm not expecting nearly as many three-and-outs with a 29 yard punt from our offense putting our defense in so many tough spots -- So I think our defense will actually SEEM better than it was last year.

Plus, and this is where I seem to really disagree with a lot of our fans, I actually think our schedule is easier and sets up nicely this year. Trading SD St. for Pitt makes our schedule easier, and almost every other team we play should be worse this year than they were last year (Michigan probably the only exception there) -- So, I think "upsets" (notice the quotes) are more likely.

Yeah, we have a tough stretch of quality opponents in there, but we had a worse (tougher) stretch last year.

As you can see, I'm quite bullish on us this year. This is the most optimistic I've been going into a season since 1999.

 

[thecoolestfish]

I'm just tempering my expectations more than most...any time you have inexperienced QBs there will be growing pains...all skill position talent is meaningless if the QBs struggle to get the receivers the ball and the offensive line struggles to open up running lanes...we've seen many times, experience doesn't necessarily translate into improvement. So yes Kent St isn't a gimme for me...and will go a long way towards my feelings for our chances against Pitt

Did you see our QB last year trying to get the ball to our WRs? And we still won seven games.

I'm just tempering my expectations more than most...any time you have inexperienced QBs there will be growing pains...all skill position talent is meaningless if the QBs struggle to get the receivers the ball and the offensive line struggles to open up running lanes...we've seen many times, experience doesn't necessarily translate into improvement. So yes Kent St isn't a gimme for me...and will go a long way towards my feelings for our chances against Pitt

Did you see Barkley last year running with a worse OL and no passing threat? And we still won seven games.

 

[thecoolestfish]

If the offense takes a step back this year, then Franklin needs to resign and Moorhead needs to give up football. The offense last year was so pedestrian and so uninspired that I simply can't envision anything we put out there this year being a step back from last year, if nothing else simply from an experience standpoint. We might not be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate but honestly I haven't even considered the possibility of the offense not being improved. For me, it's just a question of HOW MUCH improved will this offense be.

^^^ Madsol is correct ^^^

(and I understood the hyperbole in there)

 

[Obliviax]

I agree with almost all of this (and in fact have been preaching the same). The only thing I don't agree with is, assuming our LBs stay moderately healthy, I don't see many teams scoring 31 on us.

While we're definitely going to experience a drop off at DL, because of the back seven, I think that on the net, our defense is going to be at least equal to last year's defense. Plus, I'm not expecting nearly as many three-and-outs with a 29 yard punt from our offense putting our defense in so many tough spots -- So I think our defense will actually SEEM better than it was last year.

Plus, and this is where I seem to really disagree with a lot of our fans, I actually think our schedule is easier and sets up nicely this year. Trading SD St. for Pitt makes our schedule easier, and almost every other team we play should be worse this year than they were last year (Michigan probably the only exception there) -- So, I think "upsets" (notice the quotes) are more likely.

Yeah, we have a tough stretch of quality opponents in there, but we had a worse (tougher) stretch last year.

As you can see, I'm quite bullish on us this year. This is the most optimistic I've been going into a season since 1999.

The only reason why I say that isn't that our defense will be worse, but that our hurry up offense will also result in more opportunities, meaning drives and/or possessions. I think that is why you are seeing an emphasis on two-deep on defense at every position. Kids will be gassed. Also, we have a new DC. I know he is a known quantity but not at DC. So is he better or worse? We know the last DC was highly regarded so I think you have to assume worse, if for no other reason than this will be his first year.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

The only reason why I say that isn't that our defense will be worse, but that our hurry up offense will also result in more opportunities, meaning drives and/or possessions. I think that is why you are seeing an emphasis on two-deep on defense at every position. Kids will be gassed. Also, we have a new DC. I know he is a known quantity but not at DC. So is he better or worse? We know the last DC was highly regarded so I think you have to assume worse, if for no other reason than this will be his first year.

I'm not sure how fast you think this team will go. Snapping the ball with 5 seconds on the clock is the same with a huddle as without one. The ability to go quick is there, but apparently it will not be ever 15 seconds for a snap. Getting more first downs and less 3 and outs will really help this defense out a TON...not to mention a punter who can kick the ball straight and hight for 45 yards.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

C'mon, it was hyperbole. Just my way of saying I thought the offense last year was so bad that I cannot fathom this year's offense taking a step back from last year without concluding that something really major is wrong.

Really?

FWIW, I agree with you that the PSU offense will likely take a step forward this year (I think that would be your contention....mea culpa if I misinterpreted).
The one big caveat is the QB play.....if the QB play craps the bed, which is certainly within the realm of possibilities, all bets are off

But.....as regarding "I cannot fathom" if getting worse:


How quickly they forget........last year, the PSU offense averaged 23.8 ppg in B1G play

Over the last 13 years, PSU has been LESS productive on offense 5 times (and more productive 7 times).
In other words, last year's offensive production was "par for the course" for PSU over the last 13 years......and based on that track record, "getting worse" is more than a possibility

In fact, over the last thirteen years, PSU has averaged 23.3 ppg in B1G play - - - - - so last year's "atrocious" offense was actually more productive than the average for PSU's offense over the last 13 years.

In fact, significant improvement over the 23.8 ppg of 2015 would be a bit of an outlier....as PSU has accomplished this just three times in the last 13 years.

FWIW, the years - over the last 13 - when PSU was far less productive on offense:
2003 - 12.6 ppg
2004 - 12.8 ppg
2014 - 14.0 ppg
2006 - 17.1 ppg
2011 - 17.1 ppg

Years that were similar to 2015 (within +/- 3 ppg):
2010 - 25.4 ppg
2007 - 26.0 ppg
2013 - 26.4 ppg
2009 - 26.7 ppg

There have been only THREE years with significantly better offensive production than 2015:
2012 - 32.6 ppg
2008 - 33.7 ppg
2005 - 35.2 ppg

It is what it is.

 

[Madsol]

Really?

FWIW, I agree with you that the PSU offense will likely take a step forward this year (I think that would be your contention....mea culpa if I misinterpreted).
The one big caveat is the QB play.....if the QB play craps the bed, which is certainly within the realm of possibilities, all bets are off

But.....as regarding "I cannot fathom" if getting worse:


How quickly they forget........last year, the PSU offense averaged 23.8 ppg in B1G play

Over the last 13 years, PSU has been LESS productive on offense 5 times (and more productive 7 times).
In other words, last year's offensive production was "par for the course" for PSU over the last 13 years......and based on that track record, "getting worse" is more than a possibility

In fact, over the last thirteen years, PSU has averaged 23.3 ppg in B1G play - - - - - so last year's "atrocious" offense was actually more productive than the average for PSU's offense over the last 13 years.

In fact, significant improvement over the 23.8 ppg of 2015 would be a bit of an outlier....as PSU has accomplished this just three times in the last 13 years.

FWIW, the years - over the last 13 - when PSU was far less productive on offense:
2003 - 12.6 ppg
2004 - 12.8 ppg
2014 - 14.0 ppg
2006 - 17.1 ppg
2011 - 17.1 ppg

Years that were similar to 2015 (within +/- 3 ppg):
2010 - 25.4 ppg
2007 - 26.0 ppg
2013 - 26.4 ppg
2009 - 26.7 ppg

There have been only THREE years with significantly better offensive production than 2015:
2012 - 32.6 ppg
2008 - 33.7 ppg
2005 - 35.2 ppg

It is what it is.

You know what they say about stats.

I stand by my position that this offense will be unrecognizable (in a good way) to what we've seen the past two years.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

You know what they say about stats.

I stand by my position that this offense will be unrecognizable (in a good way) to what we've seen the past two years.

"You know what they say about stats"....what? That they filter out the emotional, knee-jerk reactions of sports fans - - - and portray a true and accurate picture of the reality of the situation?

FWIW, I think the 2016 offense will likely be better....at least I am cautiously optimistic that it will.

But that was not the topic I was addressing (that it could "hardly be worse than 2015"....because the evidence clearly shows that it very well could)

FWIW, I understand why folks have the knee-jerk reaction that the 2015 offense was relatively horrendous (when, in fact, it was slightly more productive than the average PSU offense)

The 2015 offense "looked" less productive because it was so dependent on explosive plays - downfield passes and long runs by Barkley - interspersed with extended stretches of butt-ugly play.......as opposed to "consistently mediocre" performance that we had come to know and love (it is probably also influenced by the fact that most of the early season and OOC schedule was played in abysmal weather conditions - which led to degenerative, ugly, turtle-in-his-shell conservative offensive execution)
But, the bottom line is that you win or lose games based on how many points you put on the board - and the 2015 offense was the definition of "average" in that regard.

 

[Obliviax]

I'm not sure how fast you think this team will go. Snapping the ball with 5 seconds on the clock is the same with a huddle as without one. The ability to go quick is there, but apparently it will not be ever 15 seconds for a snap. Getting more first downs and less 3 and outs will really help this defense out a TON...not to mention a punter who can kick the ball straight and hight for 45 yards.

well you are correct, they do change the tempo. Having said that, at least at Fordham, they ran a hurry up a lot. As such, they had a lot more possessions, and gave up more possessions. Will they run the Fordham offense or slow it down a little? We'll see. Perhaps game to game dependent.

 

[bdgan]

I actually think our schedule is easier and sets up nicely this year. Trading SD St. for Pitt makes our schedule easier, and almost every other team we play should be worse this year than they were last year (Michigan probably the only exception there) -- So, I think "upsets" (notice the quotes) are more likely..

PSU's 5 regular season losses last year were to Temple, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. Replacing Temple with Pitt and Northwestern with Iowa doesn't make the schedule easier IMO. Michigan s/b better. OSU could be down but probably not enough to make a difference. MSU is a bit of an unknown.

The best chance for more than 7 wins is to beat Pitt, Iowa, and MSU.

 

[thecoolestfish]

Really?

FWIW, I agree with you that the PSU offense will likely take a step forward this year (I think that would be your contention....mea culpa if I misinterpreted).
The one big caveat is the QB play.....if the QB play craps the bed, which is certainly within the realm of possibilities, all bets are off

But.....as regarding "I cannot fathom" if getting worse:


How quickly they forget........last year, the PSU offense averaged 23.8 ppg in B1G play

Over the last 13 years, PSU has been LESS productive on offense 5 times (and more productive 7 times).
In other words, last year's offensive production was "par for the course" for PSU over the last 13 years......and based on that track record, "getting worse" is more than a possibility

In fact, over the last thirteen years, PSU has averaged 23.3 ppg in B1G play - - - - - so last year's "atrocious" offense was actually more productive than the average for PSU's offense over the last 13 years.

In fact, significant improvement over the 23.8 ppg of 2015 would be a bit of an outlier....as PSU has accomplished this just three times in the last 13 years.

FWIW, the years - over the last 13 - when PSU was far less productive on offense:
2003 - 12.6 ppg
2004 - 12.8 ppg
2014 - 14.0 ppg
2006 - 17.1 ppg
2011 - 17.1 ppg

Years that were similar to 2015 (within +/- 3 ppg):
2010 - 25.4 ppg
2007 - 26.0 ppg
2013 - 26.4 ppg
2009 - 26.7 ppg

There have been only THREE years with significantly better offensive production than 2015:
2012 - 32.6 ppg
2008 - 33.7 ppg
2005 - 35.2 ppg

It is what it is.

I don't have the stats, but I would bet big $$ that, given the way CFB offenses work today compared to the past, 23.5ppg was much better (relative to the rest of CFB) in the early/mid 2000s than it was last year in 2015.

Moorehead's offense is a "more with the times" offense than what we've ever run at PSU (even compared to 2005 and 2008), so when you combine that with the fact that we have much better than average athletes/players (especially at the skill position), it certainly is reasonable to expect a relatively big jump in offensive production this year compared to last.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

well you are correct, they do change the tempo. Having said that, at least at Fordham, they ran a hurry up a lot. As such, they had a lot more possessions, and gave up more possessions. Will they run the Fordham offense or slow it down a little? We'll see. Perhaps game to game dependent.

They basically averaged the same exact amount of plays per game on offense as PSU did last year.

 

[Obliviax]

PSU's 5 regular season losses last year were to Temple, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. Replacing Temple with Pitt and Northwestern with Iowa doesn't make the schedule easier IMO. Michigan s/b better. OSU could be down but probably not enough to make a difference. MSU is a bit of an unknown.

The best chance for more than 7 wins is to beat Pitt, Iowa, and MSU.

We don't replace Temple...they are on the schedule this year.

Statistically, the easiest 7 games are

• Kent
• Temple
• Minny
• maryland
• Perdue
• Indiana
• rutgers

That gets you to 8 games, if we win. Pitt isn't easier than Temple, BTW. Pitt is a solid team, a game we should win IMHO, but a solid team.

the probable L's, are:

• Michigan
• tOSU
• MSU

For my money, I really put Iowa (who over performed last year then lost to MSU and got killed by Stanford after having a pretty easy regular season) and Pitt at 50/50's. I don't expect a repeat for Iowa and while Pitt is getting better, they still don't have the athletes.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

well you are correct, they do change the tempo. Having said that, at least at Fordham, they ran a hurry up a lot. As such, they had a lot more possessions, and gave up more possessions. Will they run the Fordham offense or slow it down a little? We'll see. Perhaps game to game dependent.

FWIW, Possessions per Game, 2015 (not counting end-of-half clock run outs for either team):


Fordham - 12.5
Penn State - 12.2



FWIW, I do believe PSU will run a (slightly) "quicker-tempo" offense in 2016......but assuming some huge increase in tempo/possessions, based upon the track record at Fordham, is - well - simply erroneous.
Given that opposing offenses are likely to target the obvious "on paper" weak link in the PSU defense (the DTs) by trying to pound the ball inside the box - which chews up a ton of time - it is not unreasonable that we may actually run a bit "quicker" on offense, and end up having less possessions, simply because the other guy is chewing up the game clock.

 

[thecoolestfish]

PSU's 5 regular season losses last year were to Temple, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. Replacing Temple with Pitt and Northwestern with Iowa doesn't make the schedule easier IMO. Michigan s/b better. OSU could be down but probably not enough to make a difference. MSU is a bit of an unknown.

The best chance for more than 7 wins is to beat Pitt, Iowa, and MSU.

1. We're not replacing Temple with Pitt. We're replacing SD St. with Pitt, and I would argue that the difference there is a positive for our schedule (i.e. SD St. last yea > Pitt this year).
2. I would argue that replacing NW with Iowa is pretty close to a push for us.
3. Other than perhaps Michigan, I would argue that the rest of the top of our schedule (i.e. OSU, MSU) is down from last year -- And the rest of the teams we should be able to handle even if they improved from last year.

 

[Madsol]

"You know what they say about stats"....what? That they filter out the emotional, knee-jerk reactions of sports fans - - - and portray a true and accurate picture of the reality of the situation?

FWIW, I think the 2016 offense will likely be better....at least I am cautiously optimistic that it will.

But that was not the topic I was addressing (that it could "hardly be worse than 2015"....because the evidence clearly shows that it very well could)

FWIW, I understand why folks have the knee-jerk reaction that the 2015 offense was relatively horrendous (when, in fact, it was slightly more productive than the average PSU offense)

The 2015 offense "looked" less productive because it was so dependent on explosive plays - downfield passes and long runs by Barkley - interspersed with extended stretches of butt-ugly play.......as opposed to "consistently mediocre" performance that we had come to know and love (it is probably also influenced by the fact that most of the early season and OOC schedule was played in abysmal weather conditions - which led to degenerative, ugly, turtle-in-his-shell conservative offensive execution)
But, the bottom line is that you win or lose games based on how many points you put on the board - and the 2015 offense was the definition of "average" in that regard.

OK, you win. I think our offense sucked last year. I know that I'm not alone. In fact, Franklin must have agreed as well as he fired his offensive coordinator before the plane engine had cooled from the trip home from East Lansing. I really don't care how it compares to years past. I feel really confident that it's going to be much better this year, points-wise, yardage-wise, 3rd down-wise, consistency-wise. So let's just agree to disagree.

 

[Obliviax]

They basically averaged the same exact amount of plays per game on offense as PSU did last year.

Its true. Just going by what I've been hearing from JoeMo before and during camp. Perhaps they just want to hurry up in spots and use the clock in others. Time will tell.

 

[thecoolestfish]

We don't replace Temple...they are on the schedule this year.

Statistically, the easiest 7 games are

• Kent
• Temple
• Minny
• maryland
• Perdue
• Indiana
• rutgers

That gets you to 8 games, if we win. Pitt isn't easier than Temple, BTW. Pitt is a solid team, a game we should win IMHO, but a solid team.

the probable L's, are:

• Michigan
• tOSU
• MSU

For my money, I really put Iowa (who over performed last year then lost to MSU and got killed by Stanford after having a pretty easy regular season) and Pitt at 50/50's. I don't expect a repeat for Iowa and while Pitt is getting better, they still don't have the athletes.

I'm more bullish than you, but I put Pit at 90/10 win. I actually think that's going to be an easy W for us. I also expect us to drop one that we should win (i.e. one of your first list -- just because that's the nature of CFB). That puts us at 7-1 before considering Iowa, Michigan, tOSU, and MSU.

ASSUMING we're healthy (the only way we can analyze before the season), I chalk Iowa up as a win. I then put our odds on the other three games as such:
Michigan: 30/70
tOSU: 40/60
MSU: 60/40

So, considering those odds, I think 9-3 is our most likely record, with a close second being 8-4. I also think 10-2 is considerably more likely than 7-5.

 

[thecoolestfish]

Its true. Just going by what I've been hearing from JoeMo before and during camp. Perhaps they just want to hurry up in spots and use the clock in others. Time will tell.

I think that is in fact the case. Kinda like BillO's use of his "NASCAR" offense, except they may employ it a tad more than Bill did his NASCAR.

 

[BFo8]

1. We're not replacing Temple with Pitt. We're replacing SD St. with Pitt, and I would argue that the difference there is a positive for our schedule (i.e. SD St. last yea > Pitt this year).
2. I would argue that replacing NW with Iowa is pretty close to a push for us.
3. Other than perhaps Michigan, I would argue that the rest of the top of our schedule (i.e. OSU, MSU) is down from last year -- And the rest of the teams we should be able to handle even if they improved from last year.

I think you have it backwards. Pitt this year is better than SDSU was last year, but this years SDSU team probably superior to both. They have a decent shot to run the table this season.

 

[thecoolestfish]

OK, you win. I think our offense sucked last year. I know that I'm not alone. In fact, Franklin must have agreed as well as he fired his offensive coordinator before the plane engine had cooled from the trip home from East Lansing. I really don't care how it compares to years past. I feel really confident that it's going to be much better this year, points-wise, yardage-wise, 3rd down-wise, consistency-wise. So let's just agree to disagree.

Keep on truckin', Madsol. You are correct that you're not alone, and you're correct with everything else you've stated on this thread. Don't let Stink beat you down with his context-less stats. Stink is a relatively smart dude (at least I assume he's a dude) that knows a lot of stuff -- an asset to the board for sure, IMO -- but sometimes I think this causes him to pound his stake a little too deep into the ground.

 

[thecoolestfish]

I think you have it backwards. Pitt this year is better than SDSU was last year, but this years SDSU team probably superior to both. They have a decent shot to run the table this season.

After their loss to us in week 4, they ran the table last year (with a good number of blow outs), including their bowl game against Cincinnati. They were a very formidable team last year. Pitt, without Boyd, is going to be a pretty "meh" opponent. Probably a middle of the pack (to slightly lower than middle of the pack) B1G team. On par with Purdue or IL.

 

[Madsol]

Keep on truckin', Madsol. You are correct that you're not alone, and you're correct with everything else you've stated on this thread. Don't let Stink beat you down with his context-less stats. Stink is a relatively smart dude (at least I assume he's a dude) that knows a lot of stuff -- an asset to the board for sure, IMO -- but sometimes I think this causes him to pound his stake a little too deep into the ground.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

I don't have the stats, but I would bet big $$ that, given the way CFB offenses work today compared to the past, 23.5ppg was much better (relative to the rest of CFB) in the early/mid 2000s than it was last year in 2015.

Moorehead's offense is a "more with the times" offense than what we've ever run at PSU (even compared to 2005 and 2008), so when you combine that with the fact that we have much better than average athletes/players (especially at the skill position), it certainly is reasonable to expect a relatively big jump in offensive production this year compared to last.

Well....those figures are readily available ....... so, I'm sure you checked that out before making those contentions.
When the data is readily available, sports fans wouldn't just prattle on with "takes" that may or may not be correct......right?

________________________

FWIW, scoring has been slightly DOWN the last couple years (by just under 1 ppg)...but slightly up from the mid-2000s (for reasons that should be obvious - in both cases - but I ain't gona' tell ya' )

Over the entire span of seasons, one could certainly normalize each season based on nationwide scoring numbers (it is basic add/subtract/multiply/divide math.....not Chinese Calculus).

If one did (gee, what a novel idea, actually look at the history, and have real actual data to back up the "hypothesis" LOL)...the normalized figures for PSU's offensive production adjust to:

2003 - 16.6 ppg
2004 - 16.8 ppg
2014 - 13.8 ppg
2006 - 22.5 ppg
2011 - 19.2 ppg

2010 - 27.6 ppg
2007 - 27.2 ppg
2013 - 25.8 ppg
2009 - 28.3 ppg

2012 - 32.5 ppg
2008 - 37.5 ppg
2005 - 37.6 ppg

Which would STILL place PSU's 2015 offense as "above 5, and below 7" of the other 12 years - - - - EXACTLY where they ranked without normalizing.

Again, none of that means PSU will be better or worse on offense in 2016.....that wasn't the point

What it does show - and what WAS the point - is that PSU's 2015 offensive productivity was essentially "average" for PSU offenses over the last 13 years
(BTW, that was the time frame that I had the data readily at hand for.....if one went a little further they would be getting into the 2000-2002 seasons, two of which were atrocious seasons, one that was pretty good)

 

[StinkStankStunk]

OK, you win. I think our offense sucked last year. I know that I'm not alone. In fact, Franklin must have agreed as well as he fired his offensive coordinator before the plane engine had cooled from the trip home from East Lansing. I really don't care how it compares to years past. I feel really confident that it's going to be much better this year, points-wise, yardage-wise, 3rd down-wise, consistency-wise. So let's just agree to disagree.

We don't even disagree....not with what you stated in THIS post.

The disagreement was with the "it can't get worse" post.....because it not only can, as often or not it HAS BEEN worse. And that is simply the fact of the matter

I tend to agree that last year's offense was relatively "sucky" in many ways (see below).....but it WAS "average" in terms of production despite that "suckiness"

It was average in terms of production because it had some truly outstanding explosive playmakers.....and a (much-maligned, sometimes for good reason) QB who could make some incredible throws downfield (and some real dog shit ones as well)

I didn't love the scheme - - - and often thought the offensive strategy was off-kilter as well - - - and I was not shocked when Donovan was let go.

 

[Madsol]

We don't even disagree....not with what you stated in THIS post.

The disagreement was with the "it can't get worse" post.....because it not only can, as often or not it HAS BEEN worse. And that is simply the fact of the matter

I tend to agree that last year's offense was relatively "sucky" in many ways (see below).....but it WAS "average" in terms of production despite that "suckiness"

It was average in terms of production because it had some truly outstanding explosive playmakers.....and a (much-maligned, sometimes for good reason) QB who could make some incredible throws downfield (and some real dog shit ones as well)

I didn't love the scheme - - - and often thought the offensive strategy was off-kilter as well - - - and I was not shocked when Donovan was let go.

This is what I meant by you know what they say about stats. What in the world do the stats from prior PSU teams have ANYTHING to do with predicting what the 2016 offense might do? Absolutely nothing! Completely different coaching staffs and, quite obviously, completely different players. While Joe was the head coach, I could see citing stats from past years as some sort of predictor for future years. But now, those stats are meaningless.

 

[83wuzme]

My concerns with an uptempo offense would mainly be 1) how fast ? and 2) how well can we execute it ? Moorhead said it is a four speed offense, so hopefully , they can choose a tempo they can execute well. We can't get into a lot of 3 and out's with a green defense and limited LB depth.
But I do think a faster tempo will help. Defenses have had plenty of time to tee off against us the last two seasons.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

This is what I meant by you know what they say about stats. What in the world do the stats from prior PSU teams have ANYTHING to do with predicting what the 2016 offense might do? Absolutely nothing! Completely different coaching staffs and, quite obviously, completely different players. While Joe was the head coach, I could see citing stats from past years as some sort of predictor for future years. But now, those stats are meaningless.

They don't - - - and I never said they did. In fact, I (repeatedly) stated that they did not.

As I CLEARLY stated, that data was only provided to show that offensive productivity most certainly could be worse - as it has been roughly half the time.
That is simple, undisputable fact.