Basketball Big Ten Basketball Tournament Seeding Probabilities

[Richie O]

 

[Texas Lion]

For as good as this team can be they are going to have to play night 1 in the B1G? I like it because they are opposite Purdue, but that would be a long way away.

If they win through:

Minnesota
Iowa
Indiana
Michigan
Purdue

They have beaten everyone on that list except Purdue.

 

[Erial_Lion]

For as good as this team can be they are going to have to play night 1 in the B1G? I like it because they are opposite Purdue, but that would be a long way away.

If they win through:

Minnesota
Iowa
Indiana
Michigan
Purdue

They have beaten everyone on that list except Purdue.

Playing with the simulator, how about this scenario (with Pomeroy's probabilities of each happening)...

Michigan State beats Ohio State (71%)
Indiana beats Michigan (66%)
Iowa beats Nebraska (81%)
Wisconsin/Minnesota doesn't matter
Penn State beats Maryland (51%)
Purdue beats Illinois (79%)
Northwestern beats Rutgers (34%)

We'd be the 10th seed...
Thursday against Illinois(7 seed), who we swept
Friday against Northwestern (2 seed), who we beat on the road
Saturday against Iowa (3 seed), who we beat in our only meeting

 

[WPTLION]

Just think, had they beat Wisc(2x) and Rutgers last weekend...They'd be in 2nd Place.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Just think, had they beat Wisc(2x) and Rutgers last weekend...They'd be in 2nd Place.

Crazy thing about how bunched up everything is...should those first 6 games all be won by the favorite, Northwestern will go into the Rutgers game needing a win for the 2 seed, but a loss drops them to the 9 seed.

 

[NC2017]

Is the thinking that we need to get to 20 wins, and if yes wouldn't playing on Wednesday be a positive?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Is the thinking that we need to get to 20 wins, and if yes wouldn't playing on Wednesday be a positive?

No…winning on Wednesday is meaningless to our resume

 

[ryoder1]

We really need this Maryland win. Gets us a Quad 1 win, gets us to .500 in the conference, gets us a 10 seed at worst in BTT and a bye on Wed. Winning regular season games is valued higher by the selection committee versus winning conf tournament games.

Conversely, if we lose to Maryland our chances to make the tournament drop precipitously. We then would have to play on Wed vs Minny (assuming Wisky beats Minny this weekend) then if we win that one we would have to win at least 2 more in the BTT, prob vs Maryland and Indiana to get all the way to the BTT finals. Low probability.

Gotta find a way to dig deep and win at home vs the Terps. Hopefully a loud, boisterous crowd shows up and propels us to the W!

 

[bdgan]

No…winning on Wednesday is meaningless to our resume

It would be better than losing on Wednesday

 

[Erial_Lion]

It would be better than losing on Wednesday

Obviously...but it's not like adding a number to our win total will benefit us at all when it's Minnesota that we're beating. There is no positive to playing Minnesota on Wednesday, so we want to avoid it.

 

[bdgan]

We really need this Maryland win. Gets us a Quad 1 win, gets us to .500 in the conference, gets us a 10 seed at worst in BTT and a bye on Wed. Winning regular season games is valued higher by the selection committee versus winning conf tournament games.

Conversely, if we lose to Maryland our chances to make the tournament drop precipitously. We then would have to play on Wed vs Minny (assuming Wisky beats Minny this weekend) then if we win that one we would have to win at least 2 more in the BTT, prob vs Maryland and Indiana to get all the way to the BTT finals. Low probability.

Gotta find a way to dig deep and win at home vs the Terps. Hopefully a loud, boisterous crowd shows up and propels us to the W!

I agree that the best path is to beat MD on Sunday but I think we could also make it by winning 2 BT tournament games. It depends on how many favorites with the small conference tournaments.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I agree that the best path is to beat MD on Sunday but I think we could also make it by winning 2 BT tournament games. It depends on how many favorites with the small conference tournaments.

We lose on Sunday and I'd expect us to need to get to Saturday in Chicago...the loss likely makes us the 11 seed, so that means winning 3 games. Just don't see a loss to Maryland and only getting to Friday in Chicago as being enough.

Win Sunday, and I still think it's a coin flip to make it even if we lose our first game in Chicago. Add a win in Chicago and the conversation moves to whether we're avoiding a trip to Dayton.

 

[ryoder1]

I agree that the best path is to beat MD on Sunday but I think we could also make it by winning 2 BT tournament games. It depends on how many favorites with the small conference tournaments.

I am thinking if we lose to Maryland then in the BTT the bare minimum we have do to have a shot is win 3 which probably takes us into the semis but not even winning the semis yet. I think a Maryland loss sends us to an 11 seed or possibly 12 seed so playing on Wed. I don't think winning two in the BTT starting on Wed will be enough if we have lost to Maryland on Sunday.

Since the Rutgers loss we have helped ourselves obviously by beating NW and others have helped. Most notably Michigan coming back in the last second to send Wisky to OT then to beat them in OT. Then Purdue surviving against Wisky. If Wisky does get the 11 seed they will be probably the best 11 seed the BTT has seen and a tough out for whomever draws them.

 

[Erial_Lion]

If Wisky does get the 11 seed they will be probably the best 11 seed the BTT has seen and a tough out for whomever draws them.

When people say that the Big Ten wasn't that good this year, I point to what you're saying, along with the fact that Ohio State is far and away the best 13 seed this conference has ever seen. Not a ton of spectacular teams, but the depth is really good.

 

[ryoder1]

When people say that the Big Ten wasn't that good this year, I point to what you're saying, along with the fact that Ohio State is far and away the best 13 seed this conference has ever seen. Not a ton of spectacular teams, but the depth is really good.

I agree. The depth is phenomenal. PSU is a good, solid team and if we win 10 conference games, we still are a 10 seed. Just shows that many teams were able to get to that 11 and 12 win mark, not just 3 or 4 teams dominating everyone. This is a year where on Thursday of the BTT it wouldn't be a surprise to see every lower seed win, 12 beats 5, 11 beats 6, 10 beats 7, 9 beats 8. Don't go out and bet a parlay on it but it is certainly possible. There is very little difference between many of these teams and one can beat the other on any given night.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Is the thinking that we need to get to 20 wins, and if yes wouldn't playing on Wednesday be a positive?

No because 20 wins does not mean anything. If we lose to Maryland our path to the tournament is tiny. If we beat them we are probably in.