Your general thoughts on our guys paths

[Chickenman Testa]

i have been cranking out a lot of stuff at work and am catching up. Can you guys give me your general thoughts on our seeds - tough draws, easy draws, possible consy paths.

From a very quick glance, it looks like we’ve got more good than bad, but I’m interested in those who have already done a deep dive

 

[McScoreley]

I'll split into two parts.

RBY: There was never going to be an easy path. At least there is some familiarity with DeSanto ... if he can get past him, it'll be interesting depending on how Micic's health is. Otherwise, hope for favorable matchups in wrestlebacks if he falls there after the 2nd round or QFs.

Lee: Like his draw a ton. He has a lot of familiarity with Limmex, and has wrestled Perry before. Not sure about if Morris presents any matchup issues. Whether he gets Murin, Moran or Carr in the QFs, he's wrestled all 3 before and knows Carr can't be taken lightly. 4 winnable matches likely (not saying he's a lock for even the first 3 after what happened last year) but if Nick wrestles within himself, I definitely see him wrestling Yianni on Saturday. Both times Nick has lost to Joey, he gave up a careless takedown as a period is waning down.

Berge: If he can get past this Fresno State opponent, I think Kolodzik is the best case scenario draw for him IMO. That guy will let you wrestle him to within a point, which is favorable for Brady's style. Not saying he will win but I like his chances here better than others. Brock Mauller has looked good this year overall. Has a bad loss to Degen, who Brady has beaten but I know the transitive property doesn't particularly work here.

Nolf: Next topic (John Van Brill gets him second round, I know he didn't injure Jason on purpose last year but maybe a bit of motivation for Jason still? Van Brill is technically his most recent loss) Think Alec Pantaleo (or maybe Hidlay) can prevent Nolf from bonusing out this tournament.

Cenzo: My goodness this is favorable and Bull's is so unfavorable. That being said, Cenzo has to wrestle better than he did in the B1G finals. You know White is going to wrestle him close one way or another (hopefully he gets Ashworth instead in the QFs) Whether it's Logan Massa or Josh Shields in the Semis, that's way more preferable IMO than Evan Wick for the first time.

 

[McScoreley]

174: I'm kind of at a point where I never worry about Mark winning anymore ... I think the only opponent that can knock him out is a full sized Zahid (who won't gas) in the finals. I prefer he wrestles Amine instead of Lewis (even though he pinned Lewis last year) because Lewis has been wrestling on another level this year. Only thing I need to remember is don't worry about Mark as he wins his matches of the 5-3 or 6-2 variety.

184: Chip Ness will be an interesting out Round 2 (AA in 2018 but he always takes a ton of Ls during the year) and I heard Reenan is hobbled. Wouldn't mind if he drew Colbray instead of Reenan cause he pinned him in 45 seconds this year haha. If Rasheed is remotely close to 100%, I don't think there is anyone at 184 (not named Myles Martin) he can't beat (and who knows? maybe he has something for Martin but I certainly won't predict a win for now). Presich, Parker, Venz, Dean are all on the other side. Zavatsky (3 seed) will likely be his biggest challenge on his side. Key thing with Rasheed is just pray, pray, pray he stays healthy during the tournament.

197: Next topic

285: I think Anthony deserved the 1 seed (because of course I do) but all in all, his draw isn't bad until the semis. He won't have Dhesi (I would have lost it if Dhesi was 7) and I can't see any of his first 3 round opponents presenting trouble.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

174: I'm kind of at a point where I never worry about Mark winning anymore ... I think the only opponent that can knock him out is a full sized Zahid (who won't gas) in the finals. I prefer he wrestles Amine instead of Lewis (even though he pinned Lewis last year) because Lewis has been wrestling on another level this year. Only thing I need to remember is don't worry about Mark as he wins his matches of the 5-3 or 6-2 variety.

184: Chip Ness will be an interesting out Round 2 (AA in 2018 but he always takes a ton of Ls during the year) and I heard Reenan is hobbled. Wouldn't mind if he drew Colbray round 2 cause he pinned him in 45 seconds thisy ear haha. If Rasheed is remotely close to 100%, I don't think there is anyone at 184 (not named Myles Martin) he can't beat (and who knows? maybe he has something for Martin but I certainl won't predict a win for now). Presich, Parker, Venz, Dean are all on the other side. Zavatsky (3 seed) will likely be his biggest challenge on his side. Key thing with Rasheed is just pray, pray, pray he stays healthy during the tournament.

197: Next topic

285: I think Anthony deserved the 1 seed (because of course I do) but all in all, his draw isn't bad until the semis. He won't have Dhesi (I would have lost it if Dhesi was 7) and I can't see any of his first 3 round opponents presenting trouble.

Thanks man.

 

[McScoreley]

You're welcome!

Disclosure: I'm not analyst or expert, just general thoughts haha. All in all, very favorable, unlike last year where general consensus was we got screwed with seeding. (particularly Nolf and Nevills)

 

[zzs006]

Overall I love the PSU seeds. I think RBY has a tough draw seeing DeSanto second round but I like his chances. Cassar getting the 2 also kind of sucks because the top side is a much easier path to the finals. Everyone else I think got a wonderful draw.
Nick Lee’s quarter bracket is beautiful. Seeing a beat-up Mike Carr in the quarters is best case. Also being opposite of Eirmann and Yianni is huge. He’s shown he can beat McKenna so he has a realistic path to the finals.
Berge has about the best draw I could have imagined. He has tough opponents each round but they are matches he can win. Kolodzik second round is definitely tough but I can see Berge winning. Kolo has lost multiple times this year to people not on Berges level. If he wins there he probably gets a true freshman in Anthony Artalona or Brock Mauller. Again, both tough but winnable matches. Not saying it happens but Berge to the semis isn’t out of the question.
Nolf-doesn’t really matter but I think Hidlay got screwed getting the 5. Him and Pantaleo in the quarters to get to Nolf.
Cenzo with a great draw as well. The bull gets Joseph Smith first round!! Marinelli should win but man what a first round match. I don’t love Isaiah White in Cenzos quarter because he always wrestled him tough but Cenzo should come through. I think he sees Massa in the semis who gets through Shields. Up top Marsteller-wick quarter looks good as well.
Marks draw is great as well. Having Zahid, Lewis, Jacobe Smith, etc on the bottom is ideal. Mark-Amine semi is a match Mark likes I’m sure. Always close but never felt like Amine really had a chance.
Shak at 2 is probably my biggest surprise but man will we take it. Opposite Martin is the key obviously. It looks like he has a clear path to the semis where he could see Zavatsky which I think Rasheed wins.
Bo- same as Nolf. Doesn’t really matter. I m not a big Jacob Warner fan but I think he gets to the semis where Bo absolutely destroys him. Still, semis for Warner would be huge for him and Iowa.
Overall, I think PSU has to be extremely happy. Even the tougher draws aren’t horrible. RBY got a feeling for DeSanto which will help immensely in their next match and Cassar already beat Gable so he just has to execute again and he’s in the finals. No one was touching PSU this year no matter what but man oh man are they going to run away with this thing. It’s not going to be close at all. Fun times to be a fan of Penn State!

 

[LemonPie]

Way ahead of myself here, but root for Eierman over Alber in case Lee/McKenna side goes chalk. Don’t want Eierman in the consi-semi against Lee

 

[Qued18]

5-6 in the finals and PSU breaks Iowa's scoring record from 97

 

[ItalianLion]

Not sure I've seen this posted yet, and others likely have more accurate models.. but based on announced seeding and placement points (no bonus or non-placing advancement points factored in) here is a quick back-of the envelope of team points:

PSU 121.5
Ok St 82.5
OSU 78.0
Mich 65.5
Iowa 59.0

Several brackets are also favorable for us with "competitors" cannibalizing each other:

125: OKSt & OSU on same path to one semifinalist
133: OKSt & OSU on same path to one semifinalist
141: OKSt & OSU on same path to one quarterfinal
149: Iowa, OKSt, & OSU on same path to one quarterfinalist
165: Iowa, OK St on same path to one quarterfinalist

Overall, favorable to PSU... with some wiggle room to have a couple of our guys to have an "off" match. (which we know will not happen!)

 

[El-Jefe]

General thought:

 

[PAgeologist]

I like the PSU draws.

133 is a meat grinder regardless of how they seeded. Going to be a few really good wrestlers left off the podium. I think RBY can beat AD. If Micic is hobbled as bad as it seems, RBY has a good shot against him with his speed. Prediction-5th.

141 Nick should make the semis and facing McKenna then is the best scenario. Prediction-2nd

149 Berge has a tough draw in Kolodzik, but since both love close matches anything can happen. I must admit, his weight management scares the hell out of me. I hope he has a great tournament. Prediction- blood round, although low AA wouldn't surprise me.

157 Enter the Matrix. Good Luck. Just stay healthy. Prediction-1st.

165 Another meat grinder. Joseph got a pretty good draw. White will be tough in reverse as always. Prediction-1st.

174 I think Hall has got this, but Amine is a tough out. Lewis or Valencia in the finals is certainly no picnic either. Hall, despite some close matches has looked like he is on a mission this year. Prediction-1st.

184 If Shak can keep that knee together, he should make the finals. Martin is a buzzsaw though. But I give Shak a punchers chance. Prediction-2nd.

197 See tOSUs Moore and Martin. And every Hawkeye he has faced. Like Nolf, just stay healthy. Prediction-1st and the Hodge.

285 Top 3 all have a legit chance to win it all. If AC gets to his offense and finishes clean and quick, I like his chances. Although Dhesi as the 6 scares me. Prediction-3rd. I think Gable gets him this time, but really no shame in that.

In short, I believe we will have the required 8 scoring wrestlers. And for those of us who will be watching from the comfort of our couches, I recommend Jim Beam Apple and Cranberry. Unless your working Thursday and Friday...

 

[PAgeologist]

And I really hope Bo decks Warner in the first period. Cementing his streak of not allowing any Hawkeye see the second period.

 

[Petch]

General thought:

I hope our guys don’t take anyone lightly. Anything can happen in the NCAAs and our boys must stay focused. I worry about the easy path of this guy or that guy. There’s always a few guys that come out of nowhere at this tournament and shake things up.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I hope our guys don’t take anyone lightly. Anything can happen in the NCAAs and our boys must stay focused. I worry about the easy path of this guy or that guy. There’s always a few guys that come out of nowhere at this tournament and shake things up.

Have we had a problem in the past with our wrestlers not staying focused? Color me confused.

 

[a_mshaffer]

I hope our guys don’t take anyone lightly. Anything can happen in the NCAAs and our boys must stay focused. I worry about the easy path of this guy or that guy. There’s always a few guys that come out of nowhere at this tournament and shake things up.

I agree. We have big targets on our backs! Richards is not to be taken lightly by Marky - close match (Mark dominated) at the scuffle.

 

[Ian]

Not sure I've seen this posted yet, and others likely have more accurate models.. but based on announced seeding and placement points (no bonus or non-placing advancement points factored in) here is a quick back-of the envelope of team points:

PSU 121.5
Ok St 82.5
OSU 78.0
Mich 65.5
Iowa 59.0

Several brackets are also favorable for us with "competitors" cannibalizing each other:

125: OKSt & OSU on same path to one semifinalist
133: OKSt & OSU on same path to one semifinalist
141: OKSt & OSU on same path to one quarterfinal
149: Iowa, OKSt, & OSU on same path to one quarterfinalist
165: Iowa, OK St on same path to one quarterfinalist

Overall, favorable to PSU... with some wiggle room to have a couple of our guys to have an "off" match. (which we know will not happen!)

Wow! A 40 point gap before bonus pts based on seeding? Incredible. This could be over before Saturday night.

 

[Maddog]

Not sure I've seen this posted yet, and others likely have more accurate models.. but based on announced seeding and placement points (no bonus or non-placing advancement points factored in) here is a quick back-of the envelope of team points:

PSU 121.5
Ok St 82.5
OSU 78.0
Mich 65.5
Iowa 59.0

Several brackets are also favorable for us with "competitors" cannibalizing each other:

125: OKSt & OSU on same path to one semifinalist
133: OKSt & OSU on same path to one semifinalist
141: OKSt & OSU on same path to one quarterfinal
149: Iowa, OKSt, & OSU on same path to one quarterfinalist
165: Iowa, OK St on same path to one quarterfinalist

Overall, favorable to PSU... with some wiggle room to have a couple of our guys to have an "off" match. (which we know will not happen!)

There are also very few chances for OSU/tOSU/Iowa to hurt us directly before the finals. Here is the complete list of possible bouts PSU could face against those three teams up to the semis:

R16 RBY/Desantoo
QF Lee/Murin, Shakur/Geer
SF Lee/McKenna or Brock, Bo/Warner or Weigle

Michigan potentially could hurt us more, with possible QF RBY/Micic and SF Berge/Amine (very unlikely), Nolf/Pants, Cenzo/Mazza, and Hall/Amine

 

[ss7]

If 133 goes chalk, RBY will see Pletcher in R12.

If RBY gets by DeSanto in R2, he'll get a QF w/ Micic. If he beats Micic, he'll get Suriano.

Looking at RBY's draw, I'm less than confident he's going to AA. If he does though, he'll certainly have earned it.

 

[matter7172]

Not sure I've seen this posted yet, and others likely have more accurate models.. but based on announced seeding and placement points (no bonus or non-placing advancement points factored in) here is a quick back-of the envelope of team points:

PSU 121.5
Ok St 82.5
OSU 78.0
Mich 65.5
Iowa 59.0

Not possible. Donnie Pritzlaff guaranteed Rutgers was bringing a team trophy back from Pittsburgh.

 

[Dogwelder]

Not possible. Donnie Pritzlaff guaranteed Rutgers was bringing a team trophy back from Pittsburgh.

Maybe he meant trophy earned at team dinner at Chuck E. Cheese?

 

[jammenz]

Cael should have sat Cenzo vs Marinelli so he could have kept his #1 seed. Of course, then he would have Joe Smith first round.

 

[Maddog]

If 133 goes chalk, RBY will see Pletcher in R12.

If RBY gets by DeSanto in R2, he'll get a QF w/ Micic. If he beats Micic, he'll get Suriano.

Looking at RBY's draw, I'm less than confident he's going to AA. If he does though, he'll certainly have earned it.

I should add that my post above yours was limited to the winners bracket, so I did not include the possible RBY/Pletcher R12 bout.

 

[Petch]

Have we had a problem in the past with our wrestlers not staying focused? Color me confused.

Nope. I don’t think we’ve ever been this big of a favorite before either.

 

[ItalianLion]

Not possible. Donnie Pritzlaff guaranteed Rutgers was bringing a team trophy back from Pittsburgh.

Thank you matter, that was very uncharitable of me not to calculate the perennial top-10 Rutgers as a challenger... sometimes I just let my blue-colored glasses get in the way of message board objectivity.

So, here’s Rutgers points based on seed: 33.5, they could be this year’s dark knight...err, horse.

 

[RoarLions1]

RBY’s path to AA

First Round: RBY heavily favored vs So Guillen (Ohio, 17-3). Guillen's record is misleading, not a tough schedule, lost twice at MAC Championships, and was an at-large qualifier. Don’t relax EVER during NCAA’s, but this one is easily RBY’s if effort is there.

Second Round: Surely gets DeSanto, a 12-8 winner over RBY at B1G’s, as DeSanto had a huge first period. Game plan different, and a closer bout likely, still give DeSanto the edge. I’ll take that path below.

Second Round Wrestlebacks: Likely opponent will be the winner of Fehlman (Lock Haven, 34-6) vs Spann (Buffalo, 21-4). Great records, but feasted on lesser quality wrestlers majority of season. RBY beat Spann handily 14-5 in a dual. Fehlman took over 133 when Shoop moved to 141, and won EWL’s. His losses for the season were to Kelly, Matthews, Obendorfer, Shoop, and Tucker, not bad, but not RBY’s class. Again, don’t relax, but this should be an RBY victory.

Third Round Wrestlebacks: More FUN here. Likely opponent will be the Thornton (Purdue, 21-9) vs Harding (UNC, 21-9) winner. We all know about the RBY 7-3 loss to Thornton when RBY was injured, and Thornton’s nine losses were extremely close all season except against the very best (Suriano and Micic). Harding, with 9 losses, lost twice at ACC’s, and had a couple head scratchers along the way. A focused RBY should win this bout.

Fourth Round Wrestlebacks: Welcome to the Round of 12. Win, you’re an AA, lose and you go home having just missed. Chalk says the loser of Pletcher (tOSU, 23-5) vs Phillippi (Pitt, 19-2), both tough bouts. We know RBY is 1-1 vs Pletcher. Phillippi has losses vs Myers and Suriano, but wins vs Fix, Pletcher, Lizak, and Wilson on his resume.

I’ll stop at that last bout. Bottom-line, in a crowded, very-talented weight class, is that at least one win against a DeSanto, Pletcher, Phillippi type guy will be necessary to AA.

One more thought, without taking us through the entire bracket. A win vs DeSanto in Championships (followed by a loss to Micic), the result is that one round of wrestlebacks is skipped and wrestlers go straight to R12. RBY will get Bridges (Wyoming, 29-9) / Gomez (ISU, 21-5) winner likely. A bit easier R12 bout, but a tougher win in Championships to get there. IF this happens, a win here also earns RBY an AA finish.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Thanks Roar, very helpful, I’ll do Nolfs if you want...

 

[Lyco1990]

133 Assuming he loses to DeSanto his AA goes thru Pletcher in Blood Round. DNP to 5th
141 Should meet McKenna in Semis. Unfortunately I have McKenna in rubber match. Solid 3rd.
149 I have no Idea. Kolodzik has a couple of head scratching losses. I see him as a low AA if he gets by Kolodzik but DNP of he loses as he would have to beat Thorn and then Gfeller in blood round.
157 Next
165 Not thrilled with White in quarters but I have Cenzo winning it all although Marenelli is wrestling with emotion so should be a good match.
174 Hall should bonus his way to the Semi's with a tough Amine meeting him there. The next 2X National Champ.
184. Absolutely thrilled for Rasheed. He should be a bonus machine to the finals. I have MM winning there. Runner up.
197. The only question is who ends up with more falls, Bo or Nolf.
285 Steveson seemed to be wary of AC's speed. Should blast his way to the Semi's than he beats Steveson and White to be a NC.

Six in finals and 5 champs, darn was trying not to be a homer...
Point total 147

 

[McScoreley]

Thanks Roar, very helpful, I’ll do Nolfs if you want...

Key is Round II, he can't afford to get DQ'ed for slamming Van Brill very hard into the mat. Has to wrestle controlled.

 

[ss7]

133 Assuming he loses to DeSanto his AA goes thru Pletcher in Blood Round. DNP to 5th
141 Should meet McKenna in Semis. Unfortunately I have McKenna in rubber match. Solid 3rd.
149 I have no Idea. Kolodzik has a couple of head scratching losses. I see him as a low AA if he gets by Kolodzik but DNP of he loses as he would have to beat Thorn and then Gfeller in blood round.
157 Next
165 Not thrilled with White in quarters but I have Cenzo winning it all although Marenelli is wrestling with emotion so should be a good match.
174 Hall should bonus his way to the Semi's with a tough Amine meeting him there. The next 2X National Champ.
184. Absolutely thrilled for Rasheed. He should be a bonus machine to the finals. I have MM winning there. Runner up.
197. The only question is who ends up with more falls, Bo or Nolf.
285 Steveson seemed to be wary of AC's speed. Should blast his way to the Semi's than he beats Steveson and White to be a NC.

Six in finals and 5 champs, darn was trying not to be a homer...
Point total 147

Someone posted an interactive bracket you can download on HR. So, after filling out the whole thing with what I would call slightly but not overly optimistic results (in terms of both wins and bonus), I got this:

RBY: lose in R12 to Pletcher
Lee: 3rd
Berge: lose to Kolodzik in R2, wrestle back to 8th
Nolf: 1st
VJ: 2nd
Hall: 1st
Shak: 2nd
Nickal: 1st
Cassar: 3rd
Total points: 157.5

If I was a little more homerific and had VJ and Cassar winning the whole thing, the total jumps to 168 points.

While I wouldn't predict either of these scores, they certainly aren't out of the realm of possibility either. Can't wait. One more week.

 

[McScoreley]

Total points: 157.5

If I was a little more homerific and had VJ and Cassar winning the whole thing, the total jumps to 168 points.

While I wouldn't predict either of these scores, they certainly aren't out of the realm of possibility either. Can't wait. One more week.

I'll allow it. Also might add, what if Lee got 2nd instead!?

 

[PSU_522]

Hopefully we can all actually watch this without the BIG 10 network keeping some pointless basketball game on instead..

 

[ss7]

I'll allow it. Also might add, what if Lee got 2nd instead!?

170.5

To be clear: I don't think we'll hit that number (or any of the ones I posted). I'm just saying that these numbers are within the realm of possibility.

 

[lobo lion]

If 133 goes chalk, RBY will see Pletcher in R12.

If RBY gets by DeSanto in R2, he'll get a QF w/ Micic. If he beats Micic, he'll get Suriano.

Looking at RBY's draw, I'm less than confident he's going to AA. If he does though, he'll certainly have earned it.

Winning that R12 (likely to be against either Pletcher or Phillipi) match would be huge, because his next round match would likely be against an easier opponent (8th-seed Erneste would be the highest seed possible). Given how deep 133 is, beating Pletcher/Phillipi and Erneste in order to guarantee a 6th-place finish is not such a bad situation to be in.

 

[McScoreley]

7 Finalists (Lee, Nolf, VJ, Mark, Shak, Bo, Cassar)
5 Champs (Nolf, VJ, Mark, Bo, Cassar)
2 AAs (RBY, Berge)
Nevills holds team trophy in photo

Too much to ask for or nah?

 

[ItalianLion]

Hopefully we can all actually watch this without the BIG 10 network keeping some pointless basketball game on instead..

It’s on ESPN network family, so B1G basketball will not be issue... see spreadsheet in Streaming options pinned above for details...

 

[ss7]

Another (possible) tasty morsel hidden in the brackets:

If Stoll loses to Wood and then wins his first consolation match AND if AJ Nevills wins in R1 and then loses to GS...Nevills could send Stoll home.

I would enjoy that very much.

 

[PSU_522]

7 Finalists (Lee, Nolf, VJ, Mark, Shak, Bo, Cassar)
5 Champs (Nolf, VJ, Mark, Bo, Cassar)
2 AAs (RBY, Berge)
Nevills holds team trophy in photo

Too much to ask for or nah?

9 Finalists
9 Champs
Total Sweep
Shak is supposed to hold the trophy but then he pulls out with a medical issue..

 

[PANCAKE1]

General thought:

If Ruth and DT didnt graduate it think we would have a chance!

 

[El-Jefe]

Not possible. Donnie Pritzlaff guaranteed Rutgers was bringing a team trophy back from Pittsburgh.

Local high schools hiring extra security to guard their trophy cases.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Another (possible) tasty morsel hidden in the brackets:

If Stoll loses to Wood and then wins his first consolation match AND if AJ Nevills wins in R1 and then loses to GS...Nevills could send Stoll home.

I would enjoy that very much.

AJ got hurt pretty bad at Big 12s