I "really" think we go 10 and 2 ......

[dawgduice]

if the OL improves by about 25% (????) we should win 10 of our 12. Losses to OSU and MSU. Could we lose a few more ? sure, but ONLY if we screw up ... clock management? bad calls? turnovers late? I'm "expecting" Franklin to be a much more aware coach
The 10 and 2 prediction is more a reflection of our schedule than us being a "good" team. The only "maybe" game is at NW.

 

[fairgambit]

if the OL improves by about 25% (????) we should win 10 of our 12. Losses to OSU and MSU. Could we lose a few more ? sure, but ONLY if we screw up ... clock management? bad calls? turnovers late? I'm "expecting" Franklin to be a much more aware coach
The 10 and 2 prediction is more a reflection of our schedule than us being a "good" team. The only "maybe" game is at NW.

It's possible, but we're still have a depth problem. I think 8-4 is a lock, but I'm optimistic, so I'll predict 9-3.

 

[LafayetteBear]

Dawg: I sure would love to see the Lions go 10-2, but I think it's gonna take significant improvement in the OL play, and consistent good decision making from Hack. Fingers crossed.

 

[NittPicker]

Rutgersal says if that happens our two losses will be to Rutgers and OSU.

 

[bdgan]

That would be amazing but unlikely.

The defense will struggle to be as good as last year. Cabinda for Hull is a step backwards even if depth will be improved at LB. We also lost both starting DEs with little experience behind them. The defense should still be good but not quite as good as last year.

The offense should be slightly better. It mostly depends on Hack's imorovement. RB & WR should be better. TE depends a lot on Brenneman. I'm not sold on the OL. The kids that struggled should improve a little but we don't have replacements for Smith and Dieff.

A slightly better offense, a slightly worse defense, and an unknown kicker. Hopefully a slightly better team because if depth and experience. Most B1G games will be closely contested and it's unlikely that we win them all except for OSU & MSU. It will come down to the close games. Last year we pulled out UCF & BC at the end but had disappointing losses to MD, UM, & Ill. Fumbled kickoffs cost us 2 games. Turn those into wins and we finish 9-4 instead of 7-6. I think 9-4 would be good progression.

 

[lionhrt54]

The defense should again be one of the top in the country. The offense should be improved. 10-2 is definitely very top end but 8-4, 9-3 more realistic.

 

[Mr. Potter]

I wish I could find my post from a three months ago, but I concur.

 

[jason21psu]

I think as a fan base we have really undervalued lineup depth. With approximately 18 players coming off of redshirt, a good portion most of them will be filling out special teams and providing o-line depth. Those we're our biggest issues last year. There will probably be 5-7 true freshman that see the field this year as well. Every special teams units should improve, except field goal, and hopefully Julius will be a suitable replacement. Judging by the BW game he's already better at kickoffs.

I agree our defense takes a small step backwards. But if they stay top 10 instead of top 5 is that going to negatively affect W/L record?

Offensively I expect to be much better, o-line experience will help but 2nd year in system for young receivers is the key to me.

I think we essentially lost 14 players due to eligibility expiring and leaving early for the draft. So we should be +10 players.

Overall I expect a better team this year and it looks like our schedule is weaker so I expect a better W/L record too. Barring significant injuries, 8-4 is the floor for this team.

 

[Ranger Dan]

I don't think you can pick the number of wins out of thin air. Each game has a certain likelihood of victory or loss. Of course there are lots of variables (injuries, player improvement, etc.) but we can assign an value now based upon an educated guess. None of the games are 100% either way.

Here is my guess at percent chance of victory...

Temple: 90%
Buffalo: 98%
Rutgers: 75%
SD State: 98%
Army: 99%
Indiana: 90%
Ohio State: 5%
Maryland: 50%
Illinois: 80%
Northwestern: 60%
Michigan: 60%
Michigan St.: 10%

I then averged all of the likihood of victory values to get 67.75 percentage. Multiplying the 12 regular season games by this percentage says that we will win 8 games in the regular season. I tried tweaking the tOSU and MSU values to give us more of a realistic chance, but couldn't get to a value that I believed to be true. In the end, via my simple method, I predict an 8 win regular season, with losses to tOSU, MSU, and two from the Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan. Rutgers group.

 

[jason21psu]

SD State: 98%
Army: 99%
Maryland: 50%

I think your SD State is high, I'd go probably 85%. They're not a bad team but coming cross-country for a likely 12 noon game will be tough.
I think Army is high too. I'd go around 90%.
I think Maryland is low. They lost a lot and we're playing at M&T stadium so I'd expect at least 50% PSU crowd. I'd bump that to 75%.

 

[dawgduice]

I re-thought the losses and I now "think" our two losses will come from Rutgers

 

[Ranger Dan]

I think your SD State is high, I'd go probably 85%. They're not a bad team but coming cross-country for a likely 12 noon game will be tough.
I think Army is high too. I'd go around 90%.
I think Maryland is low. They lost a lot and we're playing at M&T stadium so I'd expect at least 50% PSU crowd. I'd bump that to 75%.

I changed the calculation based upon your suggestions, Jason, and it changed the overall percentage from 8.13 to 8.16. Still at 8 wins.

 

[Michael.Felli]

I guess it's up to me to be the realist, here...

Temple:W
Buffalo: W
Rutgers: L
SD State: W
Army: L
Indiana: L
Ohio State: L
Maryland: L
Illinois: W
Northwestern: L
Michigan: L
Michigan St.: L

 

[GulfCoastLion]

I guess it's up to me to be the realist, here...

Temple:W
Buffalo: W
Rutgers: L
SD State: W
Army: L
Indiana: L
Ohio State: L
Maryland: L
Illinois: W
Northwestern: L
Michigan: L
Michigan St.: L

So you are the realist and predict a loss to Army ? Indiana ? Oh and let's add both Rutgers and Maryland. Not sure what adjective would best describe someone who would make these predictions, but a realist is certainly not one of them. Nfm

 

[RickinDayton]

I believe the defense will be stoudt once we come into the BIG conference games. Some early growing pains in OOC trying to figure out starters and 2nd teamers. This defense should end up top 10 In all categories.

The success or failure comes down to these 4:
--OL
--FGs
--Punting
--Kick coverage and returns

So, OL and field position will be the deciding factors on thw W/L record.


FIGHT ON STATE!!!

 

[bdgan]

I guess it's up to me to be the realist, here...

Temple:W
Buffalo: W
Rutgers: L
SD State: W
Army: L
Indiana: L
Ohio State: L
Maryland: L
Illinois: W
Northwestern: L
Michigan: L
Michigan St.: L

Rutgers, Maryland, and Michigan all start new QBs. Michigan also lost their best DE and LB. Indiana is a bad team.

Franklin sb fired if this team goes 4-8.

 

[Louisville JD]

Rutgers, Maryland, and Michigan all start new QBs. Michigan also lost their best DE and LB. Indiana is a bad team.

Franklin sb fired if this team goes 4-8.

Toughest games to get to 10-2 with this schedule are : home vs a reloading Michigan in game 11 and at Northwestern and at Maryland in the Raven's stadium which should be 50% State fans. I say we can do this to build momentum for 2016 when the schedule gets tougher especially in conference!

 

[dawgduice]

Really, my "prediction" is more about the teams we play and their status than how good we are. I REALLY expect the OL to be better and with the weak OOC schedule we will be able to develop a good bit of depth. In the Big "that" is critical.
Look we have "maybe" the best QB in the conference, we have the best tandem of receivers in the conference, we return most of our "very good defense" and the D will be deeper. The ELEPHANT in the room is the OL. Just by being a year older and stronger we "should" be better. No, I do not see an OSU type line but better than last year Could we lose more than 2, sure, but those would be upsets.

 

[LafayetteBear]

I guess it's up to me to be the realist, here...

Temple:W
Buffalo: W
Rutgers: L
SD State: W
Army: L
Indiana: L
Ohio State: L
Maryland: L
Illinois: W
Northwestern: L
Michigan: L
Michigan St.: L

You forgot the sarcasm emoticon. Either that, or you're plain crazy.

 

[psuro]

Rutgersal says if that happens our two losses will be to Rutgers and OSU.

In football or some other sport?

 

[Michael.Felli]

So you are the realist and predict a loss to Army ? Indiana ? Oh and let's add both Rutgers and Maryland. Not sure what adjective would best describe someone who would make these predictions, but a realist is certainly not one of them. Nfm

Well, Professor, fly to Vegas and place some BIG MONEY on Penn State Football, then. WALK THE WALK instead of talking the talk, tough guy!

Fact is, Penn State will open in Vegas either as a 7.5 or 7 regular season wins. Doubtful that it will happen, but - at best - Penn State opens at 8 regular season wins. And, if that DOES happen, the "safe" play is to take the UNDER.

So, now you know what I will do. I suggest you start hoarding money and fly to Vegas and take the OVER - since you are so convinced.

 

[Michael.Felli]

You forgot the sarcasm emoticon. Either that, or you're plain crazy.

Was your reply meant for me or the OP? Anyone who thinks Penn State will go 10-2 should - OBVIOUSLY - have the sarcasm emoticon attached.

 

[dawgduice]

Really? I actually "looked" at the schedule. Which teams other than OSU and MSU have better personnel?? Being "Vegas" we will be favored by the book makers in every game except the two mentioned. Could we be upset, as we were last year in a number of games, sure, but we will be favored. I believe we are now good and "deep" enough to win the games we should win, that is all

 

[Michael.Felli]

Really? I actually "looked" at the schedule. Which teams other than OSU and MSU have better personnel?? Being "Vegas" we will be favored by the book makers in every game except the two mentioned. Could we be upset, as we were last year in a number of games, sure, but we will be favored. I believe we are now good and "deep" enough to win the games we should win, that is all

Aug. 30, 2014at UCFW26-24
Sept. 6, 2014AkronW21-3
Sept. 13, 2014at RutgersW13-10
Sept. 20, 2014MassachusettsW48-7
Sept. 27, 2014NorthwesternL29-6
Oct. 11, 2014at MichiganL18-13
Oct. 25, 2014Ohio StateL31-24
Nov. 1, 2014MarylandL20-19
Nov. 8, 2014at IndianaW13-7
Nov. 15, 2014TempleW30-13
Nov. 22, 2014at IllinoisL16-14
Nov. 29, 2014Michigan StateL34-10
Dec. 27, 2014Boston CollegeW31-30

Likt I said, fly to Vegas and WALK THE WLK!

 

[dawgduice]

Aug. 30, 2014at UCFW26-24
Sept. 6, 2014AkronW21-3
Sept. 13, 2014at RutgersW13-10
Sept. 20, 2014MassachusettsW48-7
Sept. 27, 2014NorthwesternL29-6
Oct. 11, 2014at MichiganL18-13
Oct. 25, 2014Ohio StateL31-24
Nov. 1, 2014MarylandL20-19
Nov. 8, 2014at IndianaW13-7
Nov. 15, 2014TempleW30-13
Nov. 22, 2014at IllinoisL16-14
Nov. 29, 2014Michigan StateL34-10
Dec. 27, 2014Boston CollegeW31-30

Likt I said, fly to Vegas and WALK THE WLK!

M,
Not quite sure what your point is?
I'm guessing you expect us to lose games that we are the favorites to win? I guess, that is possible, as last year. But, I think NOT this year
Hey, it will make for a fun season.

 

[psuro]

It's April 26 th. No reason to think PSU won't go 12-0.

 

[LionFan96]

Well, Professor, fly to Vegas and place some BIG MONEY on Penn State Football, then. WALK THE WALK instead of talking the talk, tough guy!

Fact is, Penn State will open in Vegas either as a 7.5 or 7 regular season wins. Doubtful that it will happen, but - at best - Penn State opens at 8 regular season wins. And, if that DOES happen, the "safe" play is to take the UNDER.

So, now you know what I will do. I suggest you start hoarding money and fly to Vegas and take the OVER - since you are so convinced.

In that case, please post a pic of your betting receipt from you betting BIG MONEY on the under on PSU wins, since you believe they'll go 4-8, including a loss to an Army team that lost to Yale last season.

 

[GulfCoastLion]

Well, Professor, fly to Vegas and place some BIG MONEY on Penn State Football, then. WALK THE WALK instead of talking the talk, tough guy!

Fact is, Penn State will open in Vegas either as a 7.5 or 7 regular season wins. Doubtful that it will happen, but - at best - Penn State opens at 8 regular season wins. And, if that DOES happen, the "safe" play is to take the UNDER.

So, now you know what I will do. I suggest you start hoarding money and fly to Vegas and take the OVER - since you are so convinced.

Tough Guy ? You really are an imbecile, although I've virtually ignored your way over the top political and atheistic posts on this board over the years. What's so tough about making a statement that you are anything but a realist when predicting Penn State will win more than 4 games this year ? So tell me tough guy, why will James Franklin in his second season with a much more experienced team take a huge step backward and win only 4 games. You post that they will lose to Army, Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland and 4 others and claim to be a realist. OK, then I'll bet straight up with you that Penn State will win more than 5 games, how about 6 games ? You must be pretty confident in your realistic commentary, so why should I go to Vegas when I can bet you straight up on PSU over 6 wins. Finally, you are a fool to call someone out as a tough guy without knowing me. I'm quite confident I could more than hold my own if we meet face to face, MR Tough Guy.

 

[kgilbert78]

Really? I actually "looked" at the schedule. Which teams other than OSU and MSU have better personnel?? Being "Vegas" we will be favored by the book makers in every game except the two mentioned. Could we be upset, as we were last year in a number of games, sure, but we will be favored. I believe we are now good and "deep" enough to win the games we should win, that is all

They all still have *more* personnel. A lot more. We still have guys who would not be on a PSU-level team were it not for the sanctions. That is situation is improving in the 2015 season--but not enough, IMHO, to expect a 10-2 season. That said, the first 6 games are not against good teams.

 

[dawgduice]

They all still have *more* personnel. A lot more. We still have guys who would not be on a PSU-level team were it not for the sanctions. That is situation is improving in the 2015 season--but not enough, IMHO, to expect a 10-2 season. That said, the first 6 games are not against good teams.

6 "good" teams??? Who? What ? Where? Temple? Buffalo? SDState? Army? Rutgers? and Indiana? Actually, that lineup is why I think we can be 10-2

 

[GulfCoastLion]

Tough Guy ? You really are an imbecile, although I've virtually ignored your way over the top political and atheistic posts on this board over the years. What's so tough about making a statement that you are anything but a realist when predicting Penn State will win more than 4 games this year ? So tell me tough guy, why will James Franklin in his second season with a much more experienced team take a huge step backward and win only 4 games ?

You post that they will lose to Army, Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland and 4 others and claim to be a realist. OK, then I'll bet straight up with you that Penn State will win more than 5 games, how about 6 games ? You must be pretty confident in your realistic commentary, so why should I go to Vegas when I can bet you straight up on PSU over 6 wins. Finally, you are a fool to call someone out as a tough guy without knowing me. I'm quite confident I could more than hold my own if we were to somehow meet face to face, MR Tough Guy.

 

[kgilbert78]

6 "good" teams??? Who? What ? Where? Temple? Buffalo? SDState? Army? Rutgers? and Indiana? Actually, that lineup is why I think we can be 10-2

Note that I said "the first six games are NOT against good teams". I think you missed the "not".

 

[dawgduice]

Note that I said "the first six games are NOT against good teams". I think you missed the "not".

Oops That was on me. I did miss the "not".

 

[psu00]

It's April 26 th. No reason to think PSU won't go 12-0.

12-0??? No flippin way. Definitely 15-0 as Penn State hammers the overrated Ducks for the national title!!!

 

[TU_NY]

I don't think you can pick the number of wins out of thin air. Each game has a certain likelihood of victory or loss. Of course there are lots of variables (injuries, player improvement, etc.) but we can assign an value now based upon an educated guess. None of the games are 100% either way.

Here is my guess at percent chance of victory...

Temple: 90%
Buffalo: 98%
Rutgers: 75%
SD State: 98%
Army: 99%
Indiana: 90%
Ohio State: 5%
Maryland: 50%
Illinois: 80%
Northwestern: 60%
Michigan: 60%
Michigan St.: 10%

I then averged all of the likihood of victory values to get 67.75 percentage. Multiplying the 12 regular season games by this percentage says that we will win 8 games in the regular season. I tried tweaking the tOSU and MSU values to give us more of a realistic chance, but couldn't get to a value that I believed to be true. In the end, via my simple method, I predict an 8 win regular season, with losses to tOSU, MSU, and two from the Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan. Rutgers group.

Haha! You guys are nuts. Never change.

Owls will be one of the very best non-P5 teams this year. Not sure how you have a 90% chance of winning when the spread will likely be around 7 points. No one who knows anything about college football is going to predict a 90% chance that Penn State wins this game. Some of you just aren't very knowledgeable fans.

I understand why you have a better sense for how the Nits will fare against B1G competition; but we play you almost every year and yet from reading this board it's quite apparent that many of you don't have a clue about the current state of this Owls program. It's easy to see "Temple" and predict a 90% chance of a win... but it's not much harder to do some quick research and realize that this year's iteration of TUFB is going to be very different than what you've come to expect from years past.

That said, I am glad to see that most of you are overlooking us. The fan above seems to think that Temple is only 8% better than Buffalo! Fortunately for you, I can guarantee that the Nit coaching staff, Vegas or, really, anyone with a brain does not agree.

Good luck!

 

[CappyToCJF]

Well, Professor, fly to Vegas and place some BIG MONEY on Penn State Football, then. WALK THE WALK instead of talking the talk, tough guy!

Fact is, Penn State will open in Vegas either as a 7.5 or 7 regular season wins. Doubtful that it will happen, but - at best - Penn State opens at 8 regular season wins. And, if that DOES happen, the "safe" play is to take the UNDER.

So, now you know what I will do. I suggest you start hoarding money and fly to Vegas and take the OVER - since you are so convinced.

I suggest you fly to Pittsburgh and lay ur money down next to mine with me taking OVER and you talking UNDER the 7.5 wins. You sprew plenty of hot air suggestion as well.....Professor....

 

[tboyer]

How awesome, a football thread! I think I'd add only this to the comments above.

SPEED. Team speed is finally going to resemble a Penn State team. Speed took a big step up in 2014 with better athletes at wideout, CB and safety. This year of course secondary and receiver are going to be even faster, but we'll notice a dramatic upgrade in speed at running back, kickoff and punt coverage, and perhaps the second string of LB.

That said, if they can't replace 75% of Donovan Smith at LT, Hack is going to get pounded have another tough year, and 8 wins is the ceiling. You just can't hide a bad OL. I'm optimistic but a big improvment at OL is anything but a certainty. It just takes a really long time to develop and PSU's OL personnel was about as depleted as it could possibly be.

On the other hand, on a positive note, the new speed at running back could change the whole look of the offense. It wasn't just the difficulty the OL had handling the blitz, it was that PSU did not have a running back with breakaway speed, so defenses could really ignore PSU's run and tee off on Hack every play. If one (or, ideally, 3) of the young backs is able to play, PSU will have enough speed at the position to burn defenses if they just go for the backfield on every play.

To me the biggest upside for the whole team is PSU will have true 4.5 and probably 4.4 guys at tailback, guys who can run like corners. It has been a REALLY long time since they've had that. And you have that on top of wideouts who are physical and can run -- opposing defenses won't have enough fast players to match up, so they'll have to play softer -- and that is the best thing that could happen for a young OL.

My hope, my dream, is that Rutgers is not going to be able to play the kind of uber-blitzing D they played last year, because if they do PSU is going to break some big plays in the running game.

 

[Art]

6 "good" teams??? Who? What ? Where? Temple? Buffalo? SDState? Army? Rutgers? and Indiana? Actually, that lineup is why I think we can be 10-2

I agree. With that schedule, if PSU isn't 10-2, 9-3 worst case, something is wrong.