Roar's Big Ten Seeding Review

[RoarLions1]

Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeding Review

Welcome to my annual attempt at making sense of the regular season conference results (duals DO matter!). Seems to me this exercise gets tougher each year, though I personally take that as a challenge. When the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland in 2015, the conference added one dual meet to the schedule for all teams, making it nine each regular season. Wrestling ALL conference duals meant a wrestler would get nine of thirteen possible opponents. Not horrible. That lasted six years. Remember, just before Rutgers and Maryland were added the number of conference duals was eight, meaning eight of 11 possible opponents. Again, not horrible, pretty good in fact. In 2022, the matrix changed again, in the wrong direction in my opinion, and we’re back at eight conference duals. Even if the impossible happened and all 140 starters in the conference wrestled every dual, only eight of 13 opponents would be wrestled. These facts make seeding hard.

Only conference dual results are used to start, though occasionally I’ll sneak in a comment about tournament results between Big Ten foes.

As in the past couple of years, I will try to get two weight classes done per day, maybe as many as three. It is possible that I made a mistake or two (or three or four, and so on) with records, etc. Please be gentle. Here’s 125 to start.

125
#1: Matt Ramos (PUR, 8-0)
#2: Drake Ayala (IA, 5-2)
#3: Eric Barnett (WIS, 6-2)
#4: Braeden Davis (PSU, 6-2)
#5: Micheal DeAugustino (MICH, 5-2)
#6: Patrick McKee (MINN, 4-3)
#7: Caleb Smith (NEB, 4-3)
#8: Brendon McCrone (tOSU, 5-2)
#9: Dean Peterson (RUT, 4-4)
#10 Tristan Lujan (MSU, 1-6)
#11: Justin Cardani (ILL, 2-5)
#12: Massey Odiotti (NU, 2-6)
#13: Tommy Capul (MD, 1-7)
#14: Blaine Frazier (IND, 0-4)

Matt Ramos (PUR) is the easy pick for the top seed, going 8-0. A loss to Caleb Smith (NEB) at Cliff Keen has no bearing except as a tie-breaker should I need it. After that, the weight gets interesting, just as it did on the national scene. 125 is a wide open weight class. I was ready to pencil in Eric Barnett (WIS) at #2 and had Patrick McKee (MINN) all the way down to #9 last Friday morning. Then on Friday evening McKee pinned Barnett in Minny’s last dual, and the topsy-turvy nature of 125 continued. The Drake Ayala (IA) vs Barnett match didn’t happen in Iowa’s last dual as Ayala didn’t go. This would have gone a LONG way towards settling a few things. So we’re left with five guys with two losses and two guys with three losses that won against the guys with two losses. Get the picture? It’s not pretty.

Ayala’s losses are to top seed Ramos and one of the guys with two losses, Micheal DeAugustino (MICH), so I’m seeding him #2, by a hair. It’s a toss-up for the next three spots. DeAugustino beat Ayala, but lost to Smith and Davis. Davis beat DeAugustino, but lost to Ayala and Smith. Barnett beat Smith, but lost to Ramos and McKee. McCrone has no great wins and lost to DeAugustino and Barnett. Even 4-3 Smith could be in this mix, beating Davis and DeAugustino, and beating top seed Ramos at an early season tourney (I know, doesn’t count), but losing to Barnett, McKee and Ayala. McKee's loss to Dean Peterson (RUT) hurt his seed. I like Barnett for #3. The Ramos loss is the best loss of the bunch…though not much to go on, I know.

It’s #4 Davis next with the HTH win over #5 DeAugustino. #6 McKee gets the nod over #7 Smith with a HTH win, as both guys get seeded above 2-loss and #8 McCrone whose best win is HTH against #9 Dean Peterson (RUT). Peterson does have a win versus McKee, but also four conference losses including the one to McCrone. #10 through #14 are a bit of a mess too. I’m going #10 Tristan Lujan (MSU) with a HTH win over #11 Justin Cardani (ILL). #12 Massey Odiotti (NU) has wins over the last two seeds, #13 Tommy Capul (MD) and #14 Blaine Frazier (IND).

That was painful! I am confident the Big Ten and I won’t agree. At least I put my reasoning in black and white, so it’s far more transparent.

 

[NLB_Six]

Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeding Review

Welcome to my annual attempt at making sense of the regular season conference results (duals DO matter!). Seems to me this exercise gets tougher each year, though I personally take that as a challenge. When the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland in 2015, the conference added one dual meet to the schedule for all teams, making it nine each regular season. Wrestling ALL conference duals meant a wrestler would get nine of thirteen possible opponents. Not horrible. That lasted six years. Remember, just before Rutgers and Maryland were added the number of conference duals was eight, meaning eight of 11 possible opponents. Again, not horrible, pretty good in fact. In 2022, the matrix changed again, in the wrong direction in my opinion, and we’re back at eight conference duals. Even if the impossible happened and all 140 starters in the conference wrestled every dual, only eight of 13 opponents would be wrestled. These facts make seeding hard.

Only conference dual results are used to start, though occasionally I’ll sneak in a comment about tournament results between Big Ten foes.

As in the past couple of years, I will try to get two weight classes done per day, maybe as many as three. It is possible that I made a mistake or two (or three or four, and so on) with records, etc. Please be gentle. Here’s 125 to start.

125
#1: Matt Ramos (PUR, 8-0)
#2: Drake Ayala (IA, 5-2)
#3: Eric Barnett (WIS, 6-2)
#4: Braeden Davis (PSU, 6-2)
#5: Micheal DeAugustino (MICH, 5-2)
#6: Patrick McKee (MINN, 4-3)
#7: Caleb Smith (NEB, 4-3)
#8: Brendon McCrone (tOSU, 5-2)
#9: Dean Peterson (RUT, 4-4)
#10 Tristan Lujan (MSU, 1-6)
#11: Justin Cardani (ILL, 2-5)
#12: Massey Odiotti (NU, 2-6)
#13: Tommy Capul (MD, 1-7)
#14: Blaine Frazier (IND, 0-4)

Matt Ramos (PUR) is the easy pick for the top seed, going 8-0. A loss to Caleb Smith (NEB) at Cliff Keen has no bearing except as a tie-breaker should I need it. After that, the weight gets interesting, just as it did on the national scene. 125 is a wide open weight class. I was ready to pencil in Eric Barnett (WIS) at #2 and had Patrick McKee (MINN) all the way down to #9 last Friday morning. Then on Friday evening McKee pinned Barnett in Minny’s last dual, and the topsy-turvy nature of 125 continued. The Drake Ayala (IA) vs Barnett match didn’t happen in Iowa’s last dual as Ayala didn’t go. This would have gone a LONG way towards settling a few things. So we’re left with five guys with two losses and two guys with three losses that won against the guys with two losses. Get the picture? It’s not pretty.

Ayala’s losses are to top seed Ramos and one of the guys with two losses, Micheal DeAugustino (MICH), so I’m seeding him #2, by a hair. It’s a toss-up for the next three spots. DeAugustino beat Ayala, but lost to Smith and Davis. Davis beat DeAugustino, but lost to Ayala and Smith. Barnett beat Smith, but lost to Ramos and McKee. McCrone has no great wins and lost to DeAugustino and Barnett. Even 4-3 Smith could be in this mix, beating Davis and DeAugustino, and beating top seed Ramos at an early season tourney (I know, doesn’t count), but losing to Barnett, McKee and Ayala. McKee's loss to Dean Peterson (RUT) hurt his seed. I like Barnett for #3. The Ramos loss is the best loss of the bunch…though not much to go on, I know.

It’s #4 Davis next with the HTH win over #5 DeAugustino. #6 McKee gets the nod over #7 Smith with a HTH win, as both guys get seeded above 2-loss and #8 McCrone whose best win is HTH against #9 Dean Peterson (RUT). Peterson does have a win versus McKee, but also four conference losses including the one to McCrone. #10 through #14 are a bit of a mess too. I’m going #10 Tristan Lujan (MSU) with a HTH win over #11 Justin Cardani (ILL). #12 Massey Odiotti (NU) has wins over the last two seeds, #13 Tommy Capul (MD) and #14 Blaine Frazier (IND).

That was painful! I am confident the Big Ten and I won’t agree. At least I put my reasoning in black and white, so it’s far more transparent.

Look forward to your efforts every year Roar. Thank you.

 

[hlstone]

This thread should be automatically in the finals for POTY.

 

[Still in State College]

Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeding Review

Welcome to my annual attempt at making sense of the regular season conference results (duals DO matter!). Seems to me this exercise gets tougher each year, though I personally take that as a challenge. When the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland in 2015, the conference added one dual meet to the schedule for all teams, making it nine each regular season. Wrestling ALL conference duals meant a wrestler would get nine of thirteen possible opponents. Not horrible. That lasted six years. Remember, just before Rutgers and Maryland were added the number of conference duals was eight, meaning eight of 11 possible opponents. Again, not horrible, pretty good in fact. In 2022, the matrix changed again, in the wrong direction in my opinion, and we’re back at eight conference duals. Even if the impossible happened and all 140 starters in the conference wrestled every dual, only eight of 13 opponents would be wrestled. These facts make seeding hard.

Only conference dual results are used to start, though occasionally I’ll sneak in a comment about tournament results between Big Ten foes.

As in the past couple of years, I will try to get two weight classes done per day, maybe as many as three. It is possible that I made a mistake or two (or three or four, and so on) with records, etc. Please be gentle. Here’s 125 to start.

125
#1: Matt Ramos (PUR, 8-0)
#2: Drake Ayala (IA, 5-2)
#3: Eric Barnett (WIS, 6-2)
#4: Braeden Davis (PSU, 6-2)
#5: Micheal DeAugustino (MICH, 5-2)
#6: Patrick McKee (MINN, 4-3)
#7: Caleb Smith (NEB, 4-3)
#8: Brendon McCrone (tOSU, 5-2)
#9: Dean Peterson (RUT, 4-4)
#10 Tristan Lujan (MSU, 1-6)
#11: Justin Cardani (ILL, 2-5)
#12: Massey Odiotti (NU, 2-6)
#13: Tommy Capul (MD, 1-7)
#14: Blaine Frazier (IND, 0-4)

Matt Ramos (PUR) is the easy pick for the top seed, going 8-0. A loss to Caleb Smith (NEB) at Cliff Keen has no bearing except as a tie-breaker should I need it. After that, the weight gets interesting, just as it did on the national scene. 125 is a wide open weight class. I was ready to pencil in Eric Barnett (WIS) at #2 and had Patrick McKee (MINN) all the way down to #9 last Friday morning. Then on Friday evening McKee pinned Barnett in Minny’s last dual, and the topsy-turvy nature of 125 continued. The Drake Ayala (IA) vs Barnett match didn’t happen in Iowa’s last dual as Ayala didn’t go. This would have gone a LONG way towards settling a few things. So we’re left with five guys with two losses and two guys with three losses that won against the guys with two losses. Get the picture? It’s not pretty.

Ayala’s losses are to top seed Ramos and one of the guys with two losses, Micheal DeAugustino (MICH), so I’m seeding him #2, by a hair. It’s a toss-up for the next three spots. DeAugustino beat Ayala, but lost to Smith and Davis. Davis beat DeAugustino, but lost to Ayala and Smith. Barnett beat Smith, but lost to Ramos and McKee. McCrone has no great wins and lost to DeAugustino and Barnett. Even 4-3 Smith could be in this mix, beating Davis and DeAugustino, and beating top seed Ramos at an early season tourney (I know, doesn’t count), but losing to Barnett, McKee and Ayala. McKee's loss to Dean Peterson (RUT) hurt his seed. I like Barnett for #3. The Ramos loss is the best loss of the bunch…though not much to go on, I know.

It’s #4 Davis next with the HTH win over #5 DeAugustino. #6 McKee gets the nod over #7 Smith with a HTH win, as both guys get seeded above 2-loss and #8 McCrone whose best win is HTH against #9 Dean Peterson (RUT). Peterson does have a win versus McKee, but also four conference losses including the one to McCrone. #10 through #14 are a bit of a mess too. I’m going #10 Tristan Lujan (MSU) with a HTH win over #11 Justin Cardani (ILL). #12 Massey Odiotti (NU) has wins over the last two seeds, #13 Tommy Capul (MD) and #14 Blaine Frazier (IND).

That was painful! I am confident the Big Ten and I won’t agree. At least I put my reasoning in black and white, so it’s far more transparent.

Hopefully 125 will be the only bear to figure out.

 

[District four]

This thread should be automatically in the finals for POTY.

Yes it signals to all of us that we are about to be champions again lol. Roar you ****ing rock

 

[RoarLions1]

133
#1: Dylan Ragusin (MICH, 7-1)
#2: Jacob Van Dee (NEB, 6-1)
#3: Dylan Shawver (RUT, 6-2)
#4: Nic Bouzakis (tOSU, 6-2)
#5: Anthony Madrigal (ILL, 6-2)
#6: Braxton Brown (MD, 5-3)
#7: Tyler Wells (MINN, 4-2)
#8: Aaron Nagao (PSU, 3-3)
#9: Cullen Schriever (IA, 3-2)
#10: Nicolar Rivera (WIS, 3-5)
#11: Cayden Rooks (IND, 2-3)
#12: Dustin Norris (PUR, 1-5)
#13: Patrick Adams (NU, 0-7)
#14: Andrew Hampton (MSU, 0-7)

No undefeated guys standing at the end of the season at 133. #1 Dylan Ragusin (MICH) gets the nod over fellow 1-loss wrestler #2 Jacob Van Dee (NEB). Yeah I know…but, but, but Van Dee beat Ragusin HTH!! True, and I really emphasize HTH wins, but they don’t always tell the whole story. Van Dee has a loss to Anthony Madrigal (ILL) and Ragusin wrestled a far harder regular season, facing and beating Nic Bouzakis (tOSU), Dylan Shawver (RUT), Braxton Brown (MD) and Aaron Nagao (PSU). This decision wasn’t all that close in my opinion. Van Dee does earn my #2 seed.

Next are three guys at 6-2 in the conference; Shawver, Bouzakis and Madrigal. In the only HTH match-up between them, it was #3 Shawver over #4 Bouzakis. Both lost to #1 seed Ragusin. I’m going with the HTH result despite Shawver’s loss to Tyler Wells (MINN) which is neither a bad nor good loss.

That leaves #5 Madrigal, who owns a great win vs Van Dee, but also a loss vs Cullen Schriever (IA). The next four, Aaron Nagao, Braxton Brown, Tyler Wells (MINN) and Schriever are very close despite their distinctly different records. #6 Brown wrestled a full slate, going 5-3, losing to three guys in front of him, though his best win is vs Wells. #7 Wells does have a win vs Shawver, the best win from among himself, Nagao, and Schriever. #8 Nagao owns a HTH win vs #9 Schriever. Editorial: I do think Nagao outwrestles his seed at B1G’s.

#10 Nicolar Rivera (WIS) has three wins from among the bottom five, so he’s the easy next seed. From there I have #11 Cayden Rooks (IND), #12 Dustin Norris, #13 Patrick Adams (NU) and #14 Andrew Hampton (MSU).

Two down, eight to go. A brief look ahead at several weight classes show that the three of four I peeked at are not as bad as 125. 133 took half an hour less than 125, so here’s hoping that trend continues!!

 

[McScoreley]

Not shocked by Aaron's seed (especially since he missed two huge chances against Brown, Van Dee) but if he's back to full health by Big Tens, can't imagine Ragusin is a happy man here.

 

[McScoreley]

Also obviously thank you @RoarLions1 for the effort that goes into creating this high quality analysis every year

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Thanks @RoarLions1

 

[ggcpsu]

love that draw for Nagao. Getting Bouzakis when he has to make weight the next day in the second match of the day would be fantastic.

 

[goldenanimal]

Fantastic stuff, Roar. I look forward to your preview every year. A heads up at 125, according to Willie, the Smith victory against Ramos in Vegas does in fact count in the seeding vote, which doesn't go by just duals but by all head-to-heads featuring conference foes. Only further strengthens your case for Smith over McCrone. I’m guessing that Smith also gets credit for a MFOR over DeAug in the consi semis at Cliff Keen?

Assuming Willie is correct, other Big10 head-to-heads from CKLV include:
133 Bouzakis MD Norris (Purdue)
141 Mendez MD Hardy
149 Lovett MD D’Emilio
157 Robb DEC Lewan
184 Pinto DEC Bullock
197 Jaxon Smith DEC Vanadia (Purdue)
197 Allred MD Bates (NW)

Nothing too shocking or seed-altering… I hope that‘s helpful rather than disruptive!

 

[RoarLions1]

Fantastic stuff, Roar. I look forward to your preview every year. A heads up at 125, according to Willie, the Smith victory against Ramos in Vegas does in fact count in the seeding vote, which doesn't go by just duals but by all head-to-heads featuring conference foes. Only further strengthens your case for Smith over McCrone. I’m guessing that Smith also gets credit for a MFOR over DeAug in the consi semis at Cliff Keen?

Assuming Willie is correct, other Big10 head-to-heads from CKLV include:
133 Mendez MD Hardy
133 Bouzakis MD Norris (Purdue)
149 Lovett MD D’Emilio
157 Robb DEC Lewan
184 Pinto DEC Bullock
197 Jaxon Smith DEC Vanadia (Purdue)
197 Allred MD Bates (NW)

Nothing too shocking or seed-altering… I hope that‘s helpful rather than disruptive!

Thanks, I already have 40+ bouts from more than half a dozen early season tournaments in my spreadsheet. I try to collect every ounce of info starter-to-starter that I can. Most are meaningless as they affect nothing. Some do, but I've been setting them aside for as long as this has been done, only using them as needed.

Somewhat related, I was singularly impressed with the true freshman at 149 from Illinois, Kannon Webster. He's 13-1 on the season, but more importantly beat both Dylan D'Emilio and Caleb Rathjen in the two duals he wrestled this season. That's impressive.

 

[Ski]

Fantastic stuff, Roar. I look forward to your preview every year. A heads up at 125, according to Willie, the Smith victory against Ramos in Vegas does in fact count in the seeding vote, which doesn't go by just duals but by all head-to-heads featuring conference foes. Only further strengthens your case for Smith over McCrone. I’m guessing that Smith also gets credit for a MFOR over DeAug in the consi semis at Cliff Keen?

Assuming Willie is correct, other Big10 head-to-heads from CKLV include:
133 Mendez MD Hardy
133 Bouzakis MD Norris (Purdue)
149 Lovett MD D’Emilio
157 Robb DEC Lewan
184 Pinto DEC Bullock
197 Jaxon Smith DEC Vanadia (Purdue)
197 Allred MD Bates (NW)

Nothing too shocking or seed-altering… I hope that‘s helpful rather than disruptive!

That would make Nagao 5-3 against B1G foes as he beat Devon Britton, a Rutgers backup, 17-2 at the Black Knight Invitational on 11/19/2023. He also beat Andrew Hampton of Mich St. 13 to 1 at the same tournament. I doubt that moves the needle much, if at all.

 

[RoarLions1]

141
#1: Beau Bartlett (PSU, 8-0)
#2: Jesse Mendez (tOSU, 7-1)
#3: Real Woods (IA, 3-2)
#4: Brock Hardy (NEB, 4-2)
#5: Sergio Lemley (MICH, 5-2)
#6: Danny Pucino (ILL, 5-2)
#7: Danny Fongaro (IND, 4-4)
#8: Vance Vombaur (MINN, 4-4)
#9: Jordan Hamdan (MSU, 3-5)
#10: Mitch Moore (RUT, 2-3)
#11: Kal Miller (MD, 2-5)
#12: Greyson Clark (PUR, 1-2)
#13: Felix Lettini (WIS, 0-5)
#14: Joel Vandervere (NU, 0-0)

Easiest pick for top seed thus far, as my #1, Beau Bartlett (PSU), has wins against my next four seeds; #2 Jesse Mendez (tOSU), #3 Real Woods (IA), #4 Brock Hardy (NEB), and #5 Sergio Lemley (MICH). I’d call that a clean sweep, but now Bartlett has to go to College Park, followed by Kansas City, and face a similar road. I’m excited to watch the post-season play out.

#2 Mendez had no great wins in conference action, his best being middle-of-the-pack guys. He did beat Hardy at Cliff Keen and did wrestle a full slate of eight bouts, earning a smidgeon of extra credit. Hardy, Lemley and Woods proved that the transitive property has little value in sports as Hardy beat Lemley, Lemley beat Woods and Woods beat Hardy. Each had two total losses and for all three their other loss was to Bartlett. Just doesn’t get any closer than that. Is it fair to pick the established senior with a title at the 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships under his belt? I think so; it is certainly more fair than flipping a coin. So, it’s #3 Woods, #4 Hardy and #5 Lemley when considering Hardy’s HTH win over Lemley. It's interesting that it plays out this way, as Woods record is 3-2, Hardy is 4-2 and Lemley 5-2. Logic suggests, when just looking at records, they should be seeded the other way around. One must dig deeper, beneath the surface and look at each bout. Beating someone you are supposed to beat doesn't carry the same weight as winning toss-up bouts, for example. We'll just have to wait and see how the B1G handles this situation and others like it.

Next best is #6 Danny Pucino (ILL) at 5-2 which consisted of a best win vs Vance Vombaur (MINN) and losses to two guys in front of him. Two 4-4 guys are next, #7 Danny Fongaro (IND) and #8 Vance Vombaur (MINN). Each has three losses to guys in front of them and one to a guy behind them. Frankly, they are identical, results-wise. Fongaro’s win vs Jordan Hamden (MSU) is only a gnat’s eyelash better than Vombaur’s win against Kal Miller (MD) so that’s that!

#9 Hamden is next based on a HTH win vs #10 Mitch Moore. #11 Miller is the only guy remaining with a win vs a starter from another team. He’s followed by #12 Greyson Clark (PUR), #13 Felix Lettini (WIS) and #14 Joel Vandervere (NU).

 

[Random4598375]

I might pick Lemley based on wrestling more of the matches and having a dominant major decision against Woods (near tech fall on points, near pin based on Woods shoulders actually being pinned to the mat).

 

[poorwrestler]

This is one of my favorite threads of the season every year. I’m always impressed and appreciative.

 

[mcpat]

No argument with the seeds but personally wouldn’t be unhappy if Lemley was on the opposite side of the bracket in both March tournaments.

 

[railbirrd]

Thanks, I already have 40+ bouts from more than half a dozen early season tournaments in my spreadsheet. I try to collect every ounce of info starter-to-starter that I can. Most are meaningless as they affect nothing. Some do, but I've been setting them aside for as long as this has been done, only using them as needed.

Somewhat related, I was singularly impressed with the true freshman at 149 from Illinois, Kannon Webster. He's 13-1 on the season, but more importantly beat both Dylan D'Emilio and Caleb Rathjen in the two duals he wrestled this season. That's impressive.

SV TD by Kannon Webster vs Rathjen in the dual meet:

 

[RoarLions1]

That would make Nagao 5-3 against B1G foes as he beat Devon Britton, a Rutgers backup, 17-2 at the Black Knight Invitational on 11/19/2023. He also beat Andrew Hampton of Mich St. 13 to 1 at the same tournament. I doubt that moves the needle much, if at all.

Agree completely. The Britton match never did count to me as he's a back-up and I only record bouts against starters unless it is a Big Ten dual...and the Hampton result as you say doesn't move the needle at all.

 

[ss7]

141
#1: Beau Bartlett (PSU, 8-0)
#2: Jesse Mendez (tOSU, 7-1)
#3: Real Woods (IA, 3-2)
#4: Brock Hardy (NEB, 4-2)
#5: Sergio Lemley (MICH, 5-2)
#6: Danny Pucino (ILL, 5-2)
#7: Danny Fongaro (IND, 4-4)
#8: Vance Vombaur (MINN, 4-4)
#9: Jordan Hamdan (MSU, 3-5)
#10: Mitch Moore (RUT, 2-3)
#11: Kal Miller (MD, 2-5)
#12: Greyson Clark (PUR, 1-2)
#13: Felix Lettini (WIS, 0-5)
#14: Joel Vandervere (NU, 0-0)

Easiest pick for top seed thus far, as my #1, Beau Bartlett (PSU), has wins against my next four seeds; #2 Jesse Mendez (tOSU), #3 Real Woods (IA), #4 Brock Hardy (NEB), and #5 Sergio Lemley (MICH). I’d call that a clean sweep, but now Bartlett has to go to College Park, followed by Kansas City, and face a similar road. I’m excited to watch the post-season play out.

#2 Mendez had no great wins in conference action, his best being middle-of-the-pack guys. He did beat Hardy at Cliff Keen and did wrestle a full slate of eight bouts, earning a smidgeon of extra credit. Hardy, Lemley and Woods proved that the transitive property has little value in sports as Hardy beat Lemley, Lemley beat Woods and Woods beat Hardy. Each had two total losses and for all three their other loss was to Bartlett. Just doesn’t get any closer than that. Is it fair to pick the established senior with a title at the 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships under his belt? I think so; it is certainly more fair than flipping a coin. So, it’s #3 Woods, #4 Hardy and #5 Lemley when considering Hardy’s HTH win over Lemley. It's interesting that it plays out this way, as Woods record is 3-2, Hardy is 4-2 and Lemley 5-2. Logic suggests, when just looking at records, they should be seeded the other way around. One must dig deeper, beneath the surface and look at each bout. Beating someone you are supposed to beat doesn't carry the same weight as winning toss-up bouts, for example. We'll just have to wait and see how the B1G handles this situation and others like it.

Next best is #6 Danny Pucino (ILL) at 5-2 which consisted of a best win vs Vance Vombaur (MINN) and losses to two guys in front of him. Two 4-4 guys are next, #7 Danny Fongaro (IND) and #8 Vance Vombaur (MINN). Each has three losses to guys in front of them and one to a guy behind them. Frankly, they are identical, results-wise. Fongaro’s win vs Jordan Hamden (MSU) is only a gnat’s eyelash better than Vombaur’s win against Kal Miller (MD) so that’s that!

#9 Hamden is next based on a HTH win vs #10 Mitch Moore. #11 Miller is the only guy remaining with a win vs a starter from another team. He’s followed by #12 Greyson Clark (PUR), #13 Felix Lettini (WIS) and #14 Joel Vandervere (NU).

Suppose no PD is called, Hardy finishes the takedown and wins the match.

Bartlett is still the #1 seed at B1Gs, right?

 

[RoarLions1]

149
#1: Ridge Lovett (NEB, 7-0)
#2: Austin Gomez (MICH, 5-1)
#3: Caleb Rathjen (IA, 4-2)
#4: Tyler Kasak (PSU, 3-2)
#5: Ethen Miller (MD, 6-2)
#6: Joe Zargo (WIS, 5-2)
#7: Dylan D’Emilio (tOSU, 4-4)
#8: Graham Rooks (IND, 4-4)
#9: Drew Roberts (MINN, 4-4)
#10: Micheal Cetta (RUT, 4-4)
#11: Macos Polanco (PUR, 1-6)
#12: Jake Harrier (ILL, 1-4)
#13: Aiden Vandenbush (NU, 0-6)
#14: Braden Stauffenberg (MSU, 0-6)

#1 seed Ridge Lovett (NEB) is the class of 149, going undefeated in conference action with no close bouts. Lovett has wins against #2 Austin Gomez (MICH), #3 Caleb Rathjen (IA) and #4 Tyler Kasak (PSU). Gomez gets his seed by virtue of a one-loss conference record, though most of his wins are against middle-of-the-pack guys in the Big Ten. Rathjen won HTH against Kasak, but has losses to Lovett and talented but red-shirting freshman Kannon Webster (ILL). Kasak only has losses to guys in front of him making the top-4 complete.

6-2 Ethen Miller (MD) and 5-2 Joe Zargo (WIS) have better records than both Rathjen and Kasak, but both wrestled weak schedules, both losing to Dylan D’Emilio (tOSU) while Zargo also lost to Rathjen. Makes perfect sense to place #5 Miller and #6 Zargo next. Listening Big Ten?

#7 D’Emilio stands out among the four guys [also Graham Rooks (IND), Drew Roberts (MINN), Micheal Cetta (RUT)] with 4-4 records in the conference, winning against Rooks, Zargo and Miller. I was tempted to move him higher given these good wins, but the HTH loss to Kasak and the loss to Micheal Cetta (RUT) sealed it for me. Both Rooks and Roberts beat Cetta, so that moves Cetta to #10, as I placed a bit more weight on the losses here than Cetta’s one good win vs D’Emilio. Separating Rooks and Roberts is impossible as their resumes are nearly identical. I’m going #8 Rooks and #9 Roberts for no reason at all.

#11 Marcos Polanco (PUR) is the only remaining wrestler to beat a starter, winning against Jake Harrier (ILL). Toss-ups for the last three, I’m going #12 Harrier, #13 Aiden Vandenbush (NU) and #14 Braden Stauffenberg (MSU).

 

[RoarLions1]

157

#1: Levi Haines (PSU, 8-0)
#2: Micheal Blockus (MINN, 8-0)
#3: Brayton Lee (IND, 4-0)
#4: Chase Saldate (MSU, 7-1)
#5: Will Lewan (MICH, 3-3)
#6: Jared Franek (IA, 5-3)
#7: Joey Blaze (PUR, 3-3)
#8: Peyton Robb (NEB, 2-4)
#9: Isaac Wilcox (tOSU, 4-3)
#10: Trevor Chumbley (NU, 4-4)
#11: Michael North (MD, 1-7)
#12: Al De Santis (RUT, 2-4)
#13: Joe Roberts (ILL, 1-4)
#14: Luke Mechler (WIS, 0-6)

157 is loaded at the top if conference records are an indication. Levi Haines (PSU) and Michael Blockus (MINN) are undefeated at 8-0 representing the East and West of the Big Ten scheduling model. Brayton Lee (IND) also sports a non-losing record at 4-0. I am surprised, but very happy to see Lee back on the mat after suffering what appeared to be a career-ending injury in 2022.

Chase Saldate (MSU) at 7-1, had Levi Haines (PSU) on the ropes but the Lion soph won with a last-second reversal for Saldate’s only conference loss. #1 goes to Haines, as that is where he started the season and where he’ll stay till he loses. He has beaten the likes of Will Lewan (MICH), Jared Franek (IA), and Peyton Robb (NEB) in addition to Saldate. #2 Blockus earned his spot by matching Haines’ record AND with solid wins over Jared Franek (IA) and Peyton Robb (NEB).

While 7-1 in conference action, I’ve never seen a record quite like Saldate’s. The close loss to Haines aside, the Spartan wrestled four back-ups, and guys in the conference with 3-4, 1-7 and 0-6 records. To be honest, that is beyond weak, but not really his fault. He wrestled the guys in front of him and won. Still, I am seeding #3 Lee in front as he has a HTH win against Lewan this season and victories against Joey Blaze (PUR) and Isaac Wilcox (tOSU), all of which are far better than any of #4 Saldate’s wins. In fact, I was considering moving Saldate down further, as both Lewan and Franek have been more impressive in my opinion, at least on the WINS side of the ledger. Still, I’m holding steady with #4 Saldate (gulp!).

Next we jump on a merry-go-round as Peyton Robb (NEB) beat Lewan, Lewan beat Franek, and Franek beat Robb. Round and round we go, except for Peyton Robb’s misfortune of hitting a good many top guys, going 2-4 in conference, losing to the likes of Haines, Blockus, Franek and Joey Blaze (PUR). The Blaze loss hurts the most, though I’m just happy Robb is still wrestling after last season and the health scare he endured. Frankly, these results suggest he’s still not back to last season’s form. In 2023, Robb was undefeated heading into the Big Ten Championships, losing in the finals to Haines, and then succumbing to an infection at NCAA’s, but not before ending an impressive tournament (given the circumstances) to finish 6th, earning All-American honors.

Given Robb’s full resume, I’m moving him down, leaving it #5 Lewan and #6 Franek since Lewan has a HTH victory against the Hawkeye. Lewan has three losses in the B1G this season, all by a 2-1 score, and all after giving up one stall point. Two of his wins went to TB-1. He may be among the top-10 in all of college wrestling in a “hardest-to-score-on” category, but that is paired with a non-existent offense. Btw, I’m forecasting that the Big Ten will flip my seeds here and move Franek higher.

#7 Joey Blaze, with the HTH win against Robb is next, as his losses are against guys in front of him (Blockus, Lee, Franek). As Wilcox and Trevor Chumbley (NU) have no great wins between them and Robb has 2 wins HTH against Lewan plus no losses to guys behind him, I’m placing Robb at #8. Their records are; Robb (2-4), Wilcox (4-3) and Chumbley (4-4). Doesn’t matter, must dig deeper.

It’s #9 Wilcox and #10 Chumbley. I have other reasons, but Chumbley getting pinned by Michael North (MD), North’s only Big Ten win of the year, is a killer loss.

On the strength of that pin, next it is #11 North, followed by #12 Al De Santis (RUT), #13 Joe Roberts (ILL), and #14 Luke Mechler.

157 was a relatively easy weight class to seed, imo. Maybe I'm still feeling the effects of 125, and by comparison this was a walk in the park! Regardless, the results here, for the most part led to solid rationale when seeding. The one wrestler that can play havoc here is Peyton Robb. He's ranked 7th on the national scene by Intermat, yet I have him seeded 8th at the Big Ten Championship. That's a bit of a disconnect, yet a reasonable one if serious about using dual meet results to seed Big Ten's, where he has four losses and 2 wins. He WILL finish higher than 8th at College Park I'm predicting.

 

[RoarLions1]

165

#1: Dean Hamiti (WIS, 8-0)
#2: Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 8-0)
#3: Michael Caliendo (IA, 6-2)
#4: Caleb Fish (MSU, 6-2)
#5: Bryce Hepner (tOSU, 5-2)
#6: Antrell Taylor (NEB, 5-3)
#7: Stoney Buell (PUR, 5-3)
#8: Cameron Amine (MICH, 3-3)
#9: Blaine Brenner (MINN, 4-4)
#10: Tyler Lillard (IND, 3-2)
#11: Chris Moore (ILL, 1-7)
#12: Maxx Mayfield (NU, 1-5)
#13: Anthony White (RUT, 1-5)
#14: AJ Rodriguez (MD, 0-3)

165 was a fun weight class to analyze. It’s the second consecutive weight class with two 8-0 wrestlers, one from the Big Ten East, one from the West. Dean Hamiti (WIS) is a junior by eligibility and has already stood atop the podium at the Big Ten Championships and is a two-time All-American. Mitchell Mesenbrink is a redshirt freshman that has surprised a good many people if my conversations are an indication. Both wrestle a style that makes wrestling an enjoyable watch. Just below them in my seedings are Caleb Fish (MSU), Bryce Hepner (tOSU), Michael Caliendo (IA), and Antrell Taylor (NEB); a junior, two sophomores and one freshman. This is a very young group at the top of the leader board for the Big Ten Conference.

#1 Hamiti gets the nod, with #2 Mesenbrink to follow. Very similar results, only separated by the fact that Hamiti has been doing it longer. Next is a phenomenon that I don’t remember ever seeing; three guys with only two losses, and both losses being to the #1 and #2 seeds. That distinction belongs to #3 Caliendo, #4 Fish and #5 Hepner. #3 Caliendo has the best win of this group, over #6 Taylor. #4 Fish has a best win over Cameron Amine (MICH). #5 Hepner has a best win over the Michigan back-up and redshirt Beau Mantanona. These are VERY close results with little separation. #6 Taylor is an easy next seed, losing HTH to three guys in front of him while beating #7 Stoney Buell (PUR).

Next surprisingly is #8 Amine, given his history of success. In 2024 Amine has losses to Fish, Taylor and Mesenbrink and three wins against back-ups with one of those going to Sudden Victory. Amine has not looked himself this year, anyone that has watched the Wolverine wrestle even a few bouts would surely agree.

#9 Blaine Brenner (MINN) and #10 Tyler Lillard (IND) had similar results this year, but I’m going with the guy that wrestled a full slate over the guy that wrestled five conference bouts. That’s not much, but then there is not much to differentiate them. #11 Chris Moore (ILL) jumps ahead of #12 Maxx Mayfield (NU) with a HTH win against the Wildcat. Lastly, #13 Anthony White (RUT) owns a HTH win over #14 AJ Rodriguez.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

It is crazy how (the correct) big 10 seeds have back to back weights with former multi time AA seeded 8th. Also I believe that Amine has never lost to Hamiti (3-0), so that is a rough QF matchup for Dean

 

[jmadden1998]

It is crazy how (the correct) big 10 seeds have back to back weights with former multi time AA seeded 8th. Also I believe that Amine has never lost to Hamiti (3-0), so that is a rough QF matchup for Dean

Maybe. Amine has looked like a shell of himself this year though. He was 4-0 against Caleb Fish prior to this year including an 11-1 MD at the 2022 Big 10 Tourney.

 

[zzs006]

Maybe. Amine has looked like a shell of himself this year though. He was 4-0 against Caleb Fish prior to this year including an 11-1 MD at the 2022 Big 10 Tourney.

I might look like a fool for thinking this but I bet we see a better version of Amine come Big 10’s. He usually turns it on a bit when it really counts. That said, he has looked horrible this year. He might have stuck around a year too long

 

[wrestlingfan22]

Maybe. Amine has looked like a shell of himself this year though. He was 4-0 against Caleb Fish prior to this year including an 11-1 MD at the 2022 Big 10 Tourney.

I agree he hasn't looked as good but he has always had the Shane Griffith style improvement come the big dance. He has historically done solid at Big 10s but always outperformed that result at NCAA's. I am really interested to see how he looks come B10s

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Suppose no PD is called, Hardy finishes the takedown and wins the match.

Bartlett is still the #1 seed at B1Gs, right?

Would have a strong case. I dont like him at 4.

 

[RoarLions1]

174
#1: Carter Starocci (PSU, 5-0)
#2: Shane Griffith (MICH, 6-0)
#3: Patrick Kennedy (IA, 6-2)
#4: Edmond Ruth (ILL, 7-1)
#5: Rocco Welsh (tOSU, 5-3)
#6: Jackson Turley (RUT, 6-2)
#7: Max Maylor (WIS, 5-2)
#8: Andrew Sparks (MINN, 3-3)
#9: Donnell Washington (IND, 3-3)
#10: Brody Baumann (PUR, 2-6)
#11: Bubba Wilson (NEB, 2-6)
#12: Dominic Solis (MD, 2-4)
#13: DJ Shannon (MSU, 1-7)
#14: David Ferrante (NU, 0-6)

Carter Starocci (PSU) and Shane Griffith (MICH) are both undefeated at this weight class. They could have wrestled at the PSU/Michigan dual, but didn’t when the Lions sent out Terrell Barraclough. That bout would have settled the top seed dilemma. Starocci missed three Big Ten duals this season as he worked to get healthy for the stretch run and post-season. Griffith also missed several duals, but none of consequence. In reality though, the top seed was Starocci’s to lose all season, so he’s my #1, followed by #2 Griffith. Starocci did handle Patrick Kennedy (IA) and Rocco Welsh (tOSU), two guys in the upper half at 174. Griffith’s best wins were against the same two guys.

The next several seeds are among the easiest I’ve had so far as results point to easy placements. #3 Patrick Kennedy (IA) gets the nod after beating #4 Edmond Ruth (ILL) HTH, having only losses to the top two seeds. Ruth’s record is slightly better, 7-1 vs 6-2 but the bout between them settles the seeds. Ruth pushes Rocco Welsh (tOSU) to #5 with a HTH win against the Buckeye. #6 Jackson Turley (RUT) is the best of the rest, losing only to Welsh and Terrell Barraclough (PSU) when the talented Lion back-up won a thriller at the BJC. Turley’s best win is against Donnell Washington (IND), but it is enough. #7 Max Maylor (WIS) rounds out the top half of the seeds. He has losses to two guys in front of him, Ruth and Welsh, and wins against five guys behind him. I would be surprised, though maybe only a little, if the Big Ten and my seeds through the #7 seed don’t match. This is an easy weight class to seed so far.

#8 Andrew Sparks (MINN) is obvious for the next seed, beating guys seeded below and losing to guys seeded above. Here’s where the seeds get messy. Donnell Washington (IND) had the same record as Sparks, but with a resume unbefitting a #9 seed. He’s 3-3, with a Tech Fall loss to Turley, a loss to 1-7 DJ Shannon (MSU) and a loss to the Michigan back-up. His three wins are against guys that don’t have a winning record. Weak! Yet he beat 2-6 Brody Baumann (PUR) HTH, and Baumann beat Bubba Wilson HTH. The results drive the seedings, so it’s #9 Washington, #10 Baumann, and #11 Wilson. #12 Dominic Solis (MD) beat #13 DJ Shannon HTH, so despite Shannon’s win vs Washington (which doesn’t look that good after all). #14 is 0-6 David Ferrante (NU).

I’m seeing some wacky stuff this season, more so than I remember in past years. Some of yesterday’s stars or stars-in-the-making have fallen on tough times. Whether injury/illness, lost interest, whatever, one can go through my musings and find more guys under-performing expectations than ever before.

 

[hlstone]

174
#1: Carter Starocci (PSU, 5-0)
#2: Shane Griffith (MICH, 6-0)
#3: Patrick Kennedy (IA, 5-2)
#4: Edmond Ruth (ILL, 7-1)
#5: Rocco Welsh (tOSU, 5-3)
#6: Jackson Turley (RUT, 6-2)
#7: Max Maylor (WIS, 5-2)
#8: Andrew Sparks (MINN, 3-3)
#9: Donnell Washington (IND, 3-3)
#10: Brody Baumann (PUR, 2-6)
#11: Bubba Wilson (NEB, 2-6)
#12: Dominic Solis (MD, 2-4)
#13: DJ Shannon (MSU, 1-7)
#14: David Ferrante (NU, 0-6)

Carter Starocci (PSU) and Shane Griffith (MICH) are both undefeated at this weight class. They could have wrestled at the PSU/Michigan dual, but didn’t when the Lions sent out Terrell Barraclough. That bout would have settled the top seed dilemma. Starocci missed three Big Ten duals this season as he worked to get healthy for the stretch run and post-season. Griffith also missed several duals, but none of consequence. In reality though, the top seed was Starocci’s to lose all season, so he’s my #1, followed by #2 Griffith. Starocci did handle Patrick Kennedy (IA) and Rocco Welsh (tOSU), two guys in the upper half at 174. Griffith’s best wins were against the same two guys.

The next several seeds are among the easiest I’ve had so far as results point to easy placements. #3 Patrick Kennedy (IA) gets the nod after beating #4 Edmond Ruth (ILL) HTH, having only losses to the top two seeds. Ruth’s record is slightly better, 7-1 vs 5-2 but the bout between them settles the seeds. Ruth pushes Rocco Welsh (tOSU) to #5 with a HTH win against the Buckeye. #6 Jackson Turley (RUT) is the best of the rest, losing only to Welsh and Terrell Barraclough (PSU) when the talented Lion back-up won a thriller at the BJC. Turley’s best win is against Donnell Washington (IND), but it is enough. #7 Max Maylor (WIS) rounds out the top half of the seeds. He has losses to two guys in front of him, Ruth and Welsh, and wins against five guys behind him. I would be surprised, though maybe only a little, if the Big Ten and my seeds through the #7 seed don’t match. This is an easy weight class to seed so far.

#8 Andrew Sparks (MINN) is obvious for the next seed, beating guys seeded below and losing to guys seeded above. Here’s where the seeds get messy. Donnell Washington (IND) had the same record as Sparks, but with a resume unbefitting a #9 seed. He’s 3-3, with a Tech Fall loss to Turley, a loss to 1-7 DJ Shannon (MSU) and a loss to the Michigan back-up. His three wins are against guys that don’t have a winning record. Weak! Yet he beat 2-6 Brody Baumann (PUR) HTH, and Baumann beat Bubba Wilson HTH. The results drive the seedings, so it’s #9 Washington, #10 Baumann, and #11 Wilson. #12 Dominic Solis (MD) beat #13 DJ Shannon HTH, so despite Shannon’s win vs Washington (which doesn’t look that good after all). #14 is 0-6 David Ferrante (NU).

I’m seeing some wacky stuff this season, more so than I remember in past years. Some of yesterday’s stars or stars-in-the-making have fallen on tough times. Whether injury/illness, lost interest, whatever, one can go through my musings and find more guys under-performing expectations than ever before.

Im hoping Edmond gets in the bottom half of the bracket?

 

[Random4598375]

Im hoping Edmond gets in the bottom half of the bracket?

I think Rocco Welsh is the most dangerous person in the draw. If they’re seeded like that, Rocco would probably beat Edmond in the Qs.

 

[RoarLions1]

I think Rocco Welsh is the most dangerous person in the draw. If they’re seeded like that, Rocco would probably beat Edmond in the Qs.

Probably? Ruth beat Welsh during the season, but only by a 2-1 score. Ruth rode solidly the entire bout, earning a riding time point and the win. At worst this is a toss-up bout.

 

[RoarLions1]

184

#1: Isaiah Salazar (MINN, 7-0)
#2: Lenny Pinto (NEB, 7-1)
#3: Ryder Rogotzke (tOSU, 3-1)
#4: Bernie Truax (PSU, 5-2)
#5: Jaden Bullock (MICH, 4-3)
#6: Layne Malczewski (MSU, 5-3)
#7: Brian Soldano (RUT, 4-3)
#8: Shane Liegel (WIS, 4-4)
#9: Troy Fisher (NU, 4-4)
#10: Dylan Connell (ILL, 2-5)
#11: Aiden Riggins (IA, 2-5)
#12: Roman Rogotzke (IND, 3-5)
#13: James Rowley (PUR, 2-6)
#14: Chase Mielnik (MD, 0-8)

#1 Isaiah Salazar (MINN) stands alone as the only undefeated wrestler in conference duals. At 7-0 he has a HTH win over #2 Lenny Pinto (NEB), the Cornhusker’s only defeat of the season. Pinto has a solid win against Bernie Truax (PSU); a result hometown fans believe can be turned around in the post-season.

Here I stalled for a while. Truax, at 5-2, has good wins against 5-3 Layne Malczewski (MSU) and 4-3 Jaden Bullock (MICH), but lost to Ryder Rogatzke (tOSU). 3-1 Ryder Rogotzke beat Truax (as mentioned) but has a loss to 4-3 Brian Soldano (RUT). Soldano beat Ryder Rogotzke, but has losses to Malczewski and Bullock. 4-3 Bullock has wins against Malczewski and Soldano, with losses to Truax and Ryder Rogotzke. It’s what is called a cluster. While it is not the A>B, B>C, C<A variety of disproving the transitive property, these results still fly in the face of anything resembling that ancient theorem. This seeding at 184 is important, as the #4 seed gets the #1 seed in the semifinals if the bracket goes chalk. #3 gets #2. I’m a firm believer that all a wrestler can do is wrestle the guy in front of them, but a level of fairness should be applied so the match-ups agree with the season’s results.

After staring at this, my conclusion is that this boils down to Truax and Ryder Rogotzke for the #3 seed. There’s a case for both. Despite only wrestling in four duals, I’ll go with the HTH winner, so it’s #3 Ryder Rogotzke and #4 Truax. I do think the Big Ten flips them, we’ll see.

#5 Bullock stands out next, as all of his losses are to guys seeded higher and he has a HTH win over wins vs #6 Malczewski and #7 Soldano. Malczewski is seeded higher than Soldano as he owns a HTH win against the Scarlet Knight. #8 Shane Liegel (WIS) beat #9 Troy Fisher (NU) HTH so gets the nod between 4-4 wrestlers. That is followed by a gaggle of wrestlers with two or three wins. Aiden Riggins (IA) has the best win from the group of four [Riggins, Roman Rogotzke (IND), Dylan Connell (ILL) & James Rowley (PUR)], while Connell is the only wrestler to beat two wrestlers in this group. I’m going #10 Connell as he has a HTH win over Riggins AND all of his losses are to guys in front of him. The Fisher win gets Riggins the #11 seed even though the Hawkeye has HTH loss to James Rowley. #12 Roman Rogotzky owns a HTH win over #13 Rowley, and the weight class is wrapped up with #14 Chase Mielnik (MD).

 

[PSU Mike]

What’s the O/U on number of falls in 184 bracket? Pinto, Ryder, Soldano and Malczewski can all do it.

 

[RoarLions1]

What’s the O/U on number of falls in 184 bracket? Pinto, Ryder, Pinto and Malczewski can all do it.

Pinto listed twice, I'm sure you mean Soldano? Anyway, I did a quick look, and here's the number of in-conference dual FALLS (it is possible I missed one or two the way my data was collected).

125: 4
133: 3
141: 3
149: 6
157: 10
165: 5
174: 4
184: 5
197: 4
285: 8

 

[RoarLions1]

197

#1: Aaron Brooks (PSU, 8-0)
#2: Zach Glazier (IA, 7-1)
#3: Jaxon Smith (MD, 6-1)
#4: Silas Allred (NEB, 6-2)
#5: Garrett Joles (MINN, 6-2)
#6: Luke Geog (tOSU, 5-1)
#7: John Poznanski (RUT, 4-2)
#8: Evan Bates (NU, 4-4)
#9: Ben Vanadia (PUR, 3-5)
#10: Gabe Sollers (IND, 2-6)
#11: Kael Wisler (MSU, 3-4)
#12: Isaiah Pettigrew (ILL, 1-3)
#13: Joshua Otto (WIS, 0-7)
#14: Bobby Striggow (MICH, 0-6)

#1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) is far-and-away the top seed at 197. He beat my next three seeds, and seven of his eight wins were of the bonus point variety. #2 Zach Glazier has been a pleasant surprise to Iowa fans. After going 9-6 vs D1 wrestlers during the previous four seasons, he’s become a force at this weight class, going 7-1 in Big Ten play and 15-1 on the national scene. It is likely Hawkeye fans have forgotten about ol’ quick-switch or whatever his moniker is. Glazier has wins against Silas Allred (NEB) and Garrett Joles (MINN) to cement this seed. #3 Jaxon Smith (MD), also 6-1 on the season, is my next seed with a resume that can’t match Glazier’s. One-loss Luke Geog (tOSU) gets passed by #4 Silas Allred, as Allred’s only losses are to the top two seeds, but more importantly he has the very good win HTH vs Joles. Geog and Joles are next, but the order isn’t obvious. Both have HTH wins vs John Poznanski (RUT), and other than that both wrestler’s other wins are against guys way down the pecking order. I’m going #5 Joles and #6 Geog for no reason at all other than gut feel.

A 4-2 record, despite a weak overall conference resume earns #7 Poznanski his seed as no one left is more impressive record-wise. With a HTH win over Ben Vanadia (PUR), my next seed is #8 Evan Bates (NU). A HTH win gives #9 Vanadia the nod over #10 Gabe Sollers (IND) while a Sollers HTH win gives him the higher seed over #11 Kael Wisler (MSU). #12 Isaiah Pettigrew (ILL) has a HTH win over #13 Joshua Otto (WIS), who shares a non-winning conference record with #14 Bobby Striggow (MICH).

This next-to-last weight class was fairly easy to seed. And now onto 285!!

 

[PSU Mike]

Pinto listed twice, I'm sure you mean Soldano? Anyway, I did a quick look, and here's the number of in-conference dual FALLS (it is possible I missed one or two the way my data was collected).

125: 4
133: 3
141: 3
149: 6
157: 10
165: 5
174: 4
184: 5
197: 4
285: 8

Haha, yeah. I meant Soldano. I would have guessed 184 would have been the outlier.

 

[Random4598375]

Haha, yeah. I meant Soldano. I would have guessed 184 would have been the outlier.

Rogotzke only wrestled 4 B1G matches - 3-1 with two pins and a tech plus getting pinned by Soldano. Overall has 13 pins out of 15 total wins, but most of that was in tournaments. If he wrestled all 8 B1G matches, he certainly would have added to that total.

 

[poorwrestler]

Rogotzke only wrestled 4 B1G matches - 3-1 with two pins and a tech plus getting pinned by Soldano. Overall has 13 pins out of 15 total wins, but most of that was in tournaments. If he wrestled all 8 B1G matches, he certainly would have added to that total.

Rogotzke lost to Purdue’s James Rowley at the Clarion Open in December. Curious if they count that since he is a big ten opponent and a starter.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Roar, a big thank you for the work you put into these seedings each year. I look forward to them.