Football ESPN FPI predicts Penn State Football's 2023 season

[Richie O]

Happy Valley Insider - ESPN FPI projects the remaining games on Penn State Football's schedule

Taking a look at Penn State Football's 2023 schedule and chances in each of their remaining games this season.

pennstate.rivals.com

 

[ram2020]

11% chance of beating OSU? Look, I get our record against them has been awful, but 11% in a computer simulation? Maryland has a much better chance of beating us on our home field than we do OSU on their's?

 

[Obliviax]

I am surprised they are that confident vs WVa. We have a new QB and it is the first game of the year. We could easily have a 3 to 5 turnover game. As @ram2020 stated, clearly tOSU is a favorite but also with a new QB, 11% seems pretty low. In fact, I'd give us better odds against UM than tOSU even though UM is home and tOSU is away. tOSU is always loaded with talent but have graduated a ton, including QB and 3 on their OL.

 

[lazydave841]

I am surprised they are that confident vs WVa. We have a new QB and it is the first game of the year.

The well spring of having a 5* QB flows strong. He might be new, but expectations are high.

WVU Football: ESPN FPI predicts the Mountaineers 2023 schedule game-by-game

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts each of West Virginia's games for the 2023 season.

247sports.com

The same FPI has WVU as a 4-8 to 5-7 team.

 

[bvillebaron]

The well spring of having a 5* QB flows strong. He might be new, but expectations are high.

WVU Football: ESPN FPI predicts the Mountaineers 2023 schedule game-by-game

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts each of West Virginia's games for the 2023 season.

247sports.com

The same FPI has WVU as a 4-8 to 5-7 team.

This and 75 cents will still get me a soda out of the machine at work.

 

[lazydave841]

This and 75 cents will still get me a soda out of the machine at work.

Where do you work? 😉

 

[bdgan]

I am surprised they are that confident vs WVa. We have a new QB and it is the first game of the year. We could easily have a 3 to 5 turnover game. As @ram2020 stated, clearly tOSU is a favorite but also with a new QB, 11% seems pretty low. In fact, I'd give us better odds against UM than tOSU even though UM is home and tOSU is away. tOSU is always loaded with talent but have graduated a ton, including QB and 3 on their OL.

I agree that 11% vs OSU is too low but don't sell their QB short. He is a year older and has pretty good stats.

McCord 41-60 (68%), 3 TD, 2 INT, QB rating 170
Allar 35-60 (58%), 4 TD, 0 INT, QB rating 130

 

[Obliviax]

I agree that 11% vs OSU is too low but don't sell their QB short. He is a year older and has pretty good stats.

McCord 41-60 (68%), 3 TD, 2 INT, QB rating 170
Allar 35-60 (58%), 4 TD, 0 INT, QB rating 130

Agree but until you do it, you haven't done it. Both of those Qbs played in mop-up duties, for the most part. And, as I noted, tOSU's OL lost three players in the NFL draft. Paris Johnson (OT), Dewand Jones (OT), and Luke Wipfler (C) were all drafted.

 

[olelion]

If you're into this stuff, just win the "toss up " and they're in the playoff

 

[Online Persona]

Some of those percentages are waaaaayyyyyy offfff

 

[Obliviax]

Some of those percentages are waaaaayyyyyy offfff

yeah...one has to question the MSU prediction, given recent portals. And that is a big reason why it is so hard to predict anything now. Not only do you have key injuries but portal xfers.

 

[Online Persona]

yeah...one has to question the MSU prediction, given recent portals. And that is a big reason why it is so hard to predict anything now. Not only do you have key injuries but portal xfers.

I hope Ohio St reads their FPI prediction percent against PSU. Seriously, 90% in the bag against a predicted top 5 team? That doesn't make sense. MSU is way low for us. Illinois is lower % than Iowa? Some of this is just odd.

 

[Obliviax]

I hope Ohio St reads their FPI prediction percent against PSU. Seriously, 90% in the bag against a predicted top 5 team? That doesn't make sense. MSU is way low for us. Illinois is lower % than Iowa? Some of this is just odd.

Agree...but it has been a LOOONGG time since we beat tOSU in Columbus.

 

[bdgan]

Agree but until you do it, you haven't done it. Both of those Qbs played in mop-up duties, for the most part. And, as I noted, tOSU's OL lost three players in the NFL draft. Paris Johnson (OT), Dewand Jones (OT), and Luke Wipfler (C) were all drafted.

McCord gets to throw to Marvin Harrison.

I'd call this a toss up until we see how they really perform under pressure.

 

[lazydave841]

I hope Ohio St reads their FPI prediction percent against PSU. Seriously, 90% in the bag against a predicted top 5 team? That doesn't make sense. MSU is way low for us. Illinois is lower % than Iowa? Some of this is just odd.

Home and road sways the %. Hence why Illinois is worse than Iowa. Michigan being nearly even? They return their QB and multiple key players.

 

[Online Persona]

McCord gets to throw to Marvin Harrison.

I'd call this a toss up until we see how they really perform under pressure.

and I'm hoping Diaz has progressed this defense enough from their game last year that McCord spends a fair amount of time running for his life or on his back.

How do you negate by far the best WR corps in the country? Give the QB no time, a collapsing pocket (not sure McCord is a big run threat) and have a secondary that can play aggressive man coverage.

 

[Online Persona]

Home and road sways the %. Hence why Illinois is worse than Iowa. Michigan being nearly even? They return their QB and multiple key players.

I get that. But 3 points or so. Not some of the % moves that this seems to imply. They likely have Michigan beating Ohio St but have us at close to a coin flip with Michigan and almost no chance against Ohio St.

 

[lazydave841]

They likely have Michigan beating Ohio St but have us at close to a coin flip with Michigan and almost no chance against Ohio St.

ESPN FPI predicts every 2023 Michigan football game

Would you take this if this was the final result of 2023? #GoBlue

wolverineswire.usatoday.com

They have the Buckeyes at 71% over Michigan.

 

[Online Persona]

ESPN FPI predicts every 2023 Michigan football game

Would you take this if this was the final result of 2023? #GoBlue

wolverineswire.usatoday.com

They have the Buckeyes at 71% over Michigan.

Hmmm, because after 2 years straight of Michigan physically dominating Ohio St, several outlets have Michigan ranked ahead and predicted to beat the Buckeyes.

 

[lazydave841]

Hmmm, because after 2 years straight of Michigan physically dominating Ohio St, several outlets have Michigan ranked ahead and predicted to beat the Buckeyes.

I'm only passing along the FPI. I didn't say I believed it to be accurate nor that it supports my opinion.

 

[Wallace Breen]

For starters, I am not buying ESPN's metrics. Way too limited to capture all the critical nuances of the college game including the biggest one of all, schematic misfit between the units. I like the winning percentages for WVU, Delaware, Northwestern, UMass, Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State. Illinois is too high at 75.5. I would drop it to 65%. They obvously aren't paying attention to what is going on in Iowa City. Right now, I would slot us in at 40 to 45%. I would put Ohio State at 25% and Michigan at 10%.

 

[Obliviax]

For starters, I am not buying ESPN's metrics. Way too limited to capture all the critical nuances of the college game including the biggest one of all, schematic misfit between the units. I like the winning percentages for WVU, Delaware, Northwestern, UMass, Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State. Illinois is too high at 75.5. I would drop it to 65%. They obvously aren't paying attention to what is going on in Iowa City. Right now, I would slot us in at 40 to 45%. I would put Ohio State at 25% and Michigan at 10%.

You think we are going to lose to Iowa at home? Do you know who their OC is? Have you seen their gambling scandal?

 

[Wallace Breen]

You think we are going to lose to Iowa at home? Do you know who their OC is? Have you seen their gambling scandal?

Who cares about an accusation? I don't. The fact that it is wide knowledge shows it is probably minor at best. And yes, I think we are going to lose to Iowa at home right now. If the game was in early November, I might think otherwise but this will be the first game Allar ever plays against a good defense. while the defense has a major hole in the middle. If we don't have a lead, we are going to be run on. I also think this could be Iowa's best team since 09 and maybe 02.

 

[Westcoast24]

You think we are going to lose to Iowa at home? Do you know who their OC is? Have you seen their gambling scandal?

I believe this game will be your white out game. Don’t see PSU losing to Iowa at home at night for a white out game.

 

[Obliviax]

I believe this game will be your white out game. Don’t see PSU losing to Iowa at home at night for a white out game.

It was announced as the White out game today

 

[Erial_Lion]

I'd say that most of those projection are in line with what I'd expect. The sum is slightly more pessimistic than our win total future that I've seen, but not by much.

They do seem to be more bullish on Ohio St than most (they are currently a dog to Michigan in the spread, and the implied probability of our game would be closer to 20%).

 

[BBHorn86]

The well spring of having a 5* QB flows strong. He might be new, but expectations are high.

WVU Football: ESPN FPI predicts the Mountaineers 2023 schedule game-by-game

ESPN's Football Power Index predicts each of West Virginia's games for the 2023 season.

247sports.com

The same FPI has WVU as a 4-8 to 5-7 team.

So they have a better chance beating us on an opening night game than they do beating UCF or Baylor? There seems to be an inconsistency in these three road games?

 

[NealPaige]

11-1. Its our time to be contenders...not just in the B10, the whole enchilada.

 

[bvillebaron]

Where do you work? 😉

Law firm in Wyomissing.

 

[bvillebaron]

Who cares about an accusation? I don't. The fact that it is wide knowledge shows it is probably minor at best. And yes, I think we are going to lose to Iowa at home right now. If the game was in early November, I might think otherwise but this will be the first game Allar ever plays against a good defense. while the defense has a major hole in the middle. If we don't have a lead, we are going to be run on. I also think this could be Iowa's best team since 09 and maybe 02.

And your “inside” sources regarding the gambling scandal are who exactly? Yeah that’s what I thought.

 

[SR108]

Happy Valley Insider - ESPN FPI projects the remaining games on Penn State Football's schedule

Taking a look at Penn State Football's 2023 schedule and chances in each of their remaining games this season.

pennstate.rivals.com

I think we match up better against Ohio State than we do against Michigan. Must be where the game is played.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I think we match up better against Ohio State than we do against Michigan. Must be where the game is played.

They've also got Ohio St 1st in the country, and Michigan 6th.

 

[SR108]

They've also got Ohio St 1st in the country, and Michigan 6th.

Not sure how. I get it that they are loaded with 5 stars but they replace three offensive linemen and a qb. Not saying we will beat them but our back seven and edge rushers should be well above average this year.

We will have a new qb of our own, but have 5 OLine starters and two tight ends back as well as two pretty good backs.

 

[Wallace Breen]

And your “inside” sources regarding the gambling scandal are who exactly? Yeah that’s what I thought.

Um, there is no scandal at this point. There is an accusation without evidence. Nothing more, nothing less. yeah, that's what I think.

 

[marshall23]

For starters, I am not buying ESPN's metrics. Way too limited to capture all the critical nuances of the college game including the biggest one of all, schematic misfit between the units. I like the winning percentages for WVU, Delaware, Northwestern, UMass, Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State. Illinois is too high at 75.5. I would drop it to 65%. They obvously aren't paying attention to what is going on in Iowa City. Right now, I would slot us in at 40 to 45%. I would put Ohio State at 25% and Michigan at 10%.

Tell us about the square pegs and round holes.

 

[lazydave841]

So they have a better chance beating us on an opening night game than they do beating UCF or Baylor? There seems to be an inconsistency in these three road games?

It's pretty crazy. I didn't read all of their games. Just their predicted win loss. Good thing UCF isn't on our schedule 🙃

 

[Wallace Breen]

Tell us about the square pegs and round holes

The simpletons on this site such as yourself aren't worth the effort. Stupid is as stupid does.

 

[AWS1022]

The simpletons on this site such as yourself aren't worth the effort. Stupid is as stupid does.

Yes, like the simpletons that predicted 7-5 last year…oh wait, that was you.

 

[rrdd2021]

11% chance of beating OSU? Look, I get our record against them has been awful, but 11% in a computer simulation? Maryland has a much better chance of beating us on our home field than we do OSU on their's?

Yeah, I don't agree - at all - with that 11% BS. But, if you read all of the preseason predictions and forecasts, the B1G, and possibly the NC-playoffs goes through the OSU defense. If they can somehow field a decent-good defense this year, it will be awfully tough to beat those guys, A repeat of their horseshit defense of the last 3 to 4 years probably means that the B1G comes down to the PSU-Michigan game

 

[wolve1972]

Yeah, I don't agree - at all - with that 11% BS. But, if you read all of the preseason predictions and forecasts, the B1G, and possibly the NC-playoffs goes through the OSU defense. If they can somehow field a decent-good defense this year, it will be awfully tough to beat those guys, A repeat of their horseshit defense of the last 3 to 4 years probably means that the B1G comes down to the PSU-Michigan game

None of this matters as Jim and his BIG Blue death star will roll through the B1G on their way to the NC this year