Spike in Corona cases

Discussion in 'Test/Politics Board' started by TN Lion, Jun 30, 2020.

  1. TN Lion

    TN Lion Well-Known Member
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  2. michnittlion

    michnittlion Well-Known Member
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    It's the last day of June. So compare today to March 31st:

    (1) Late March --- where we were doing limited testing, and with testing often being denied unless one showed serious symptoms of COVID. In Late March, daily positives were about 20K-25K per day. Deaths were well into the 4 digits per day.

    (2) Late June --- where we are doing widespread testing, about 6x times as many tests as were being done in Late March. Testing is generally (not always, but generally) available to anyone who wants a test, no questions asked. In Late June, daily positives were about 40K-45K per day. Absolute deaths per day are considerably lower vs late March and early April.

    We're not in a perfect spot, but we ARE in a better spot today.
     
  3. RUPDS06

    RUPDS06 Well-Known Member
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    Endless protesting and looting have consequences.
     
  4. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    The best way to assess where we are is to look at the number of tests per capita and the percentage of positive tests.
    If you look at the US versus other developed countries with these metrics, we are not doing well.
     
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  5. YeOldeCup

    YeOldeCup Well-Known Member
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    Couldn't care less about the number of tests, number of cases, or the fool's errand of "contact tracing" (also inconsistent and impossible to complete). There is only one statistic that matters, and that's the fatality rate, which has been artificially inflated since day 1. The number who have died strictly as the result of Covid is lower than the reported number, which includes those who happened to test positive, but whose cause of death is unrelated. In addition, the number of actual cases has been far higher than reported, evidenced by the rapid (global) spread. It's highly contagious, but not highly deadly; the high number of unknown/unreported cases makes the actual death rate even lower.

    The media ("news" and advertisements) has been obsessed with conflating "cases" with "deaths," which is completely disingenuous. Most of the infected have no symptoms, or very mild symptoms, yet the media treats it like the Plague. We know who the vulnerable are, and they should quarantine. The rest of the world needs to get back to living.
     
  6. WeR0206

    WeR0206 Well-Known Member
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    This ^^^^. Deaths per day are trending DOWN in most states yet all the msm wants to talk about is the positive tests.

    Median infection fatality rate of coronavirus for those under 70 is just 0.04%:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf
     
  7. Storm at Sea

    Storm at Sea Well-Known Member
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    Undoubtedly, with the stagnant death rate, the jump in Covid cases is due to increased testing. In March and April, we did not have access to tests. Stable, symptomatic young adults were being discharged home from the ED, WITHOUT being tested. I suspect we were in the 40-50k/day range back then.
     
  8. Storm at Sea

    Storm at Sea Well-Known Member
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    Bullshit.
     
  9. rumble_lion

    rumble_lion Well-Known Member
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    Texas positivity rate is over 14% up from below 5% a month or so ago. That would not be caused by increased testing.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. WeR0206

    WeR0206 Well-Known Member
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    Who cares about testing rates, etc. when DEATHS ARE TRENDING DOWN in TX. This uptick in testing + can be easily explained by the protests/riots and many infecting younger people. It's why the death rate has trended in the opposite direction as the testing positive rate.
     
  11. Obliviax

    Obliviax Well-Known Member
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    it is because you had to get a prescription to get tested, which meant you were already symptomatic. if you have it an don't have symptoms, estimated to be ~ 40%, you'd have never been tested. But today, we are testing everyone who goes back into a work environment. And, God forbid, we point out that a lot is due to "peaceful" protests.
     
  12. rumble_lion

    rumble_lion Well-Known Member
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    Yeah who cares that positive cases have gone from 1,000 a day to 5,000? It's not like hospitalizations for deaths lag by weeks or anything.

    Looks like the governor of Texas does not agree with you.

    Gov. Greg Abbott on Friday took his most drastic action yet to respond to the post-reopening coronavirus surge in Texas, shutting bars back down and scaling back restaurant capacity to 50%.

    He also shut down river-rafting trips, which have been blamed for a swift rise in cases in Hays County, and banned outdoor gatherings of over 100 people unless local officials approve.

    “At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars," Abbott said in a news release. "The actions in this executive order are essential to our mission to swiftly contain this virus and protect public health."​
     
  13. rumble_lion

    rumble_lion Well-Known Member
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    But today, we are testing everyone who goes back into a work environment.

    That would lower the positivity rate. The more people you test that return negative the lower your positivity rate is. If you were only testing sick people a while ago and now you are testing everyone your positivity rate should go down.

    In Texas it's not going down and that is sign that the virus is spreading in an uncontrolled manner.

    The governor know this quite well and that why he is imposing restrictions on bars and other activities.
     
  14. Storm at Sea

    Storm at Sea Well-Known Member
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    If the death rate starts increasing, then there should be concern. That's not happening. Most deaths from Covid occur within 7-14 days after positive test. There's simply no evidence that things are getting out of hand. Could they? Sure. But that's not what data is showing right now. My suspicion is that April daily infections were closer to 60k per day, but we weren't testing everyone.
     
  15. WeR0206

    WeR0206 Well-Known Member
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    If the cases have no burden on the hospital system then why all the hand wringing? They don't lag by 4 freaking weeks rumble and you know it. The reopening does NOT correlate to the increase in cases, the increase does line up with the protests/riots that happened in early June though. Even with the increase in cases since most of them are younger people they're unlikely to strain any hospital capacity.

     
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  16. Osprey Lion

    Osprey Lion Well-Known Member
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    There is no need for an IQ test to spot an idiot. A maga hat or t-shirt, a Trump bumper sticker, a Confederate flag, etc will all suffice.
     
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  17. m.knox

    m.knox Well-Known Member
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    @Osprey Lion would certainly test out as an idiot.
     
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  18. HartfordLlion

    HartfordLlion Well-Known Member
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    CT % positive was 0.5% today with 4X the tests when were hitting our record # of positive cases. Yesterday 0.75% positive with 7X the number of tests.

    End of the day it is the people dying that really count. Seems like we are doing better than many developed counties. At least the countries below you can at least have some faith that their numbers are reasonably accurate.

    Confirmed deaths Population (in millions) Deaths per million
    Belgium 9,747 11.42 853.35
    United Kingdom 43,730 66.49 657.7
    Spain 28,355 46.72 606.86
    Italy 34,767 60.43 575.31
    Sweden 5,333 10.18 523.71
    France 29,777 66.99 444.52
    USA 127,244 327.17 388.93
    Ireland 1,736 4.85 357.68
    Netherlands 6,113 17.23 354.77
     
  19. HartfordLlion

    HartfordLlion Well-Known Member
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    No, no, no. Since we are testing more frequently, as opposed to those who are showing potential symptoms, we are now capturing the non-symptomatic people. Some studies have shown this could be as high as 80 - 100 to one, non-symptomatic vs symptomatic.
     
  20. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    How do you determine a fatality rate ? I would think it impossible without knowing the infection rate.
    Since many cases are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, how do you determine the infection rate without some sort of serological testing ?
    I expect COVID deaths are being both undercounted and overcounted. I know people who have lost relatives in care homes in PA who maintain that the facilities are hiding the real numbers to preserve their rankings. How this works out in terms of the actual count, I have no idea.
    But if you assert there is some sort of economic or political incentive to overcount COVID deaths that is unique to the US, this should show up in data, at least in developed countries, from outside of the US.
     
  21. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    80 - 100 x ?
    That would mean as many as 250 million. Either that is way off or herd immunity does not develop with this virus.
     
  22. rumble_lion

    rumble_lion Well-Known Member
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    Yes, yes, yes. You drive down the positivity rate when you test a bunch of people that don't have it. If you only test sick people then positivity rate will be high.
     
  23. becktheory

    becktheory Member
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    I didn’t know all the protests and looting were in the southern and select western states. Must have been none in all the other states where cases are declining.
     
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  24. YeOldeCup

    YeOldeCup Well-Known Member
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    Your intro questions should be posed to the countries, organizations, "experts," and media that have been either wrong or misleading since the onset. Too many media outlets (and egocentric individuals) are more concerned with being first -- even with bad or false information -- because it drives attention and ad revenue.
     
  25. rumble_lion

    rumble_lion Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, there should be no information published at all until we are 100% certain that every detail is correct. In a global pandemic that makes sense.
     
  26. LioninHouston

    LioninHouston Well-Known Member
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    Rumble, I agree with you, for once. I heard from Biden the other day that we’ve lost 120 million Americans due to Kung Flu. Things couldn’t get much worse.
     
  27. WeR0206

    WeR0206 Well-Known Member
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    You estimate infection rate based on serology studies.

    The latest summary of all of the serological studies puts the median IFR for people <70 at 0.04%.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf

    W
    e can both protect our seniors/high risk folks and open the economy back up. They aren’t mutually exclusive.

    Oh yeah and even if you get it we know there’s an outpatient treatment that’s very effective for high risk folks:

    Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk Covid19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis

    https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586

    “...
    Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy. Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been used as standard-of-care in more than 300,000 older adults with multicomorbidities...”
     
  28. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    So, countries are lying about their stats ?
    China, I can believe. I would expect they have under reported. What incentive would other countries have to overstate their cases ? I can’t think of one reason.
    I do not believe there is any evidence of a widespread conspiracy to over report cases and deaths in this country or elsewhere. I think this virus remains a puzzle in many ways because of its unique characteristics. The county in which I work has had no COVID deaths so far. I can get in my car and in a few hours be in a county with many thousands of deaths. I don’t think the epidemiologists were expecting this sort of pattern in March, but there seems to be a stronger correlation with population density than other airborne viruses.
     
  29. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    I was responding to another poster who said he didn’t care about infection rates and testing, only fatality rates. I raised the question as to how is it possible to calculate a fatality rate without knowing the infection rate ?
    Another way to get some idea of the fatality rate would be to compare death rates year by year for the same calendar period while taking population level serology data into account. If I had to bet, I would put my money on this as providing the best idea of the actual case fatality rate right now.
     
  30. SLUPSU

    SLUPSU Well-Known Member
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    80-100 to one is pure nonsense, here are some serology testing numbers for you to ponder....

    4.4% in FL (that works out to about 6 to 1 based on current cases)
    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200529-cnq4rkcpt5a47hi63fbcaibwte-story.html

    3.2% in AZ (that works out to about 3 to 1)
    https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

    4.3% in TX (go ahead, you can do the math)
    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/21/texas-coronavirus-testing-antibodies/

    5% in Conn and 7% in NY (go ahead, you can do the math)
    https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleid=26868&publicId=395

    5.9 in GA (go ahead, you can do the math)
    https://www.11alive.com/article/new...s-dph/85-ee3c01f3-7efa-4009-adb1-acd2d4179790
     
  31. glidresquirrel

    glidresquirrel Well-Known Member
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    Likewise all we need to do is see Osprey Lion and we know you are an idiot. You are also a racist bigot
     
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  32. YeOldeCup

    YeOldeCup Well-Known Member
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    As I said, there were both lies and incorrect information. Why would anyone do so? To protect themselves from blame or responsibility, exactly as we have seen in the US. Remember the original estimate of 2.2 million US deaths?!?

    Pretty much everyone is in driving distance of senior living facilities, which are the epicenters of vulnerability, so I don't understand what you're trying to say.

    Again, the degree of contagiousness is not the point. Wuhan could be around forever with no vaccine. Given the minuscule fatality rate that keeps falling, there's no rational reason to lock down the globe. We know who to protect and how to behave on their behalf. Those precautions do not apply to the rest of the 99.5+% of the population.
     
  33. gjbankos

    gjbankos Well-Known Member
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    well said.

    bullshit.
     
  34. MtNittany

    MtNittany Well-Known Member
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    You're a low rent ghoulish political panderer. Nothing more.
     
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  35. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    I think we have a difference of opinion as to how dangerous this virus actually is. It’s not just immediate mortality, but also morbidity, things that happen to people that affect their health and lifespans after infection. I spoke to somebody yesterday who mentioned an infected coworker who needed 3 months off of work and she is still not completely recovered.
    Lockdowns are not economically or societally sustainable. But neither is behaving as if there isn’t a pandemic and allowing millions of needless infections as well as overwhelming our health care system.
    The American Association of Hospitals predicted something like 480,000 US fatalities back in March for the entire pandemic. That may well be the closest estimate as to what happens.
     
  36. YeOldeCup

    YeOldeCup Well-Known Member
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    Yes, we disagree on this topic (agree on others), and that's OK. I enjoy our exchanges.

    At the onset, our normal healthcare systems were put into suspended animation and all resources were dedicated to Wuhan. The administration quickly deployed our two largest Naval floating hospitals to NY and CA (many media personalities egg-faced on that one) and they went virtually unused. We set up field hospitals for a deluge that never happened, and they were disbanded. We didn't overwhelm our health systems; the opposite occurred, and we've had massive healthcare layoffs as a result. We are now in a far worse healthcare position than when this began.

    Again, spikes in cases have not, and do not, translate to spikes in deaths.

    We can't base current behaviors against purely speculative futures; we must deal with today's realities. If you haven't already been exposed, you will be. There's no guarantee that a cure-all vaccine will ever be available. The idea that we can "wait this out" via avoidance has already been overridden/dis-proven through global exposure. There are known risk groups and outliers. Lockdowns are far worse than the alternative, and as recent events (and individuals) have demonstrated, lockdown measures magically "don't apply" depending on social/political motivations.

    Hope you have a great 4th holiday.
     
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  37. WeR0206

    WeR0206 Well-Known Member
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    This ^^^.

    We spent millions on field hospitals and MOST OF THEM WERE NEVER EVEN USED when the death numbers were much higher!

     
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  38. YeOldeCup

    YeOldeCup Well-Known Member
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    Wow -- I knew it was expensive, but didn't know it was over a half-trillion. A bit surprised it aired on NPR.
     
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  39. Osprey Lion

    Osprey Lion Well-Known Member
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    I was going to suggest you get your blood pressure checked because of your incoherent rants. Then I realized I don't care what happens to you.
     
  40. 83wuzme

    83wuzme Well-Known Member
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    Thanks, you as well.
    I am concerned that as a nation we have once again lost control of the situation. I look at the successes in countries like Italy and Spain and I can only think of what is going on in America as a preventable disaster.
    People are not changing their behavior, and as a result, the viral transmission is moving back to an R “ naught “ number of something around 2.6, at least in a number of places. This guarantees some sort of a lockdown, or unofficial lockdowns. The lockdowns will happen because businesses will have so many infected employees they won’t be able to keep their doors open to the public. This is stupid and needless.
    The irony is that people reverting to prepandemic behavior for economic and societal benefit will result in the same economic and societal damage from the earlier lockdown.
     
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