Should my 19-yr-old Son by more Stock in AMD

bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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Realize that in that in the stock market, you are essentially playing chess against a few hundred people with degrees in finance, years of experience, and a lot more resources than you do...
Actually many thousands of people. Also realize that they're betting against each other.
 
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rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
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Car and Driver EV rankings:
1. Hyundai Kona
2. Mustang Mach E
3. Tesla Model 3
4. Chevy Bolt
5. Volkswagen ID.4
6. Kia Nero

Tesla has a head start but competitors are coming quickly. Tesla hasn't been profitable w/o govt credits but competitors might not be profitable either. They will have the advantage of the $7,500 tax credit and local dealerships.

I'm a Tesla fan but I don't think it's a slam dunk that they're going to be the most dominant player long term. New EVs expected within a year include: Audi Q4, BMW i4, BMW iX, and Cadillac Lyriq. Time will tell.

Tesla has a head start but competitors are coming quickly.

Been hearing that for five years...... It does look like Volkswagon is trying at least. The rest of them, not so much.

Tesla hasn't been profitable w/o govt credits but competitors might not be profitable either.

The question here is why are Tesla's competitors so inept that they have to shovel billions of dollars into Tesla's coffers? They are paying Tesla to steal their customers. Their shareholders should be suing management.

They will have the advantage of the $7,500 tax credit and local dealerships.

Local dealerships are certainly not an advantage especially when selling EVs. They are in fact an anchor around legacy manufactures that will need to be overcome when it deals with selling EVs.

Tesla hasn't had the advantage of the 7,500 tax credit for the last two years and they are increasing sales at a 50% clip. Oh btw, GM is out of credits as well.

Tesla didn't provide specific deliveries guidance for 2021, but said it expects 50% average annual deliveries growth "over a multi-year horizon." The company added that "In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021."​
The whole tax credit scheme was horribly designed. Right now a Tesla made in the US does not qualify for the rebate but an electric car imported to the US by BMW or VW does. We are incentivizing US consumers to purchase foreign made cars. Stupid.

They should have set up shared pool of rebates that covered all EVs. When they rebates are gone they are gone for all the manufactures whether they took advantage of them or not. Or better yet enact a revenue neutral carbon tax.
 

bdgan

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2008
53,884
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Tesla has a head start but competitors are coming quickly.

Been hearing that for five years...... It does look like Volkswagon is trying at least. The rest of them, not so much.

Tesla hasn't been profitable w/o govt credits but competitors might not be profitable either.

The question here is why are Tesla's competitors so inept that they have to shovel billions of dollars into Tesla's coffers? They are paying Tesla to steal their customers. Their shareholders should be suing management.

They will have the advantage of the $7,500 tax credit and local dealerships.

Local dealerships are certainly not an advantage especially when selling EVs. They are in fact an anchor around legacy manufactures that will need to be overcome when it deals with selling EVs.

Tesla hasn't had the advantage of the 7,500 tax credit for the last two years and they are increasing sales at a 50% clip. Oh btw, GM is out of credits as well.

Tesla didn't provide specific deliveries guidance for 2021, but said it expects 50% average annual deliveries growth "over a multi-year horizon." The company added that "In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021."​
The whole tax credit scheme was horribly designed. Right now a Tesla made in the US does not qualify for the rebate but an electric car imported to the US by BMW or VW does. We are incentivizing US consumers to purchase foreign made cars. Stupid.

They should have set up shared pool of rebates that covered all EVs. When they rebates are gone they are gone for all the manufactures whether they took advantage of them or not. Or better yet enact a revenue neutral carbon tax.

I think the "competitors" have been slow to market because they make more money selling and servicing ICE vehicles than they would EVs. Obama's high CAFE standards were a motivator but Trump relaxed them and helped bring fuel prices down. So why not make money while they can? Enough time has elapsed to further develop EVs and the Biden administration is pushing EVs hard.

You'll notice that I said the new EVs might not be profitable.
 

rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
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I think the "competitors" have been slow to market because they make more money selling and servicing ICE vehicles than they would EVs. Obama's high CAFE standards were a motivator but Trump relaxed them and helped bring fuel prices down. So why not make money while they can? Enough time has elapsed to further develop EVs and the Biden administration is pushing EVs hard.

You'll notice that I said the new EVs might not be profitable.

I think the "competitors" have been slow to market because they make more money selling and servicing ICE vehicles than they would EVs.

Yeah, not a good long term strategy in my opinion.

Obama's high CAFE standards were a motivator but Trump relaxed them and helped bring fuel prices down. So why not make money while they can?

Short term, great idea. But they are letting new companies like Tesla get establish and steal their customers.

Enough time has elapsed to further develop EVs and the Biden administration is pushing EVs hard.

If you have been "slow to market" then you aren't doing much EV development.

You'll notice that I said the new EVs might not be profitable.

Yeah, probably shoulda started working on bringing the costs of EVs down 10 years ago. If GM had kept developing the EV1 they would be in EV drivers seat today. Instead they currently have 1 EV that has a battery and drive train purchased from LG. But hey they spent millions of dollars for tv commercials touting their "ultium" EV battery pack! The battery pack that even GM hasn't used in a car yet. Hey GM, why don't you spend money on developing an EV people want to buy instead of tv commercials? Just an idea.
 
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bdgan

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2008
53,884
26,888
1
I think the "competitors" have been slow to market because they make more money selling and servicing ICE vehicles than they would EVs.

Yeah, not a good long term strategy in my opinion.

Obama's high CAFE standards were a motivator but Trump relaxed them and helped bring fuel prices down. So why not make money while they can?

Short term, great idea. But they are letting new companies like Tesla get establish and steal their customers.

Enough time has elapsed to further develop EVs and the Biden administration is pushing EVs hard.

If you have been "slow to market" then you aren't doing much EV development.

You'll notice that I said the new EVs might not be profitable.

Yeah, probably shoulda started working on bringing the costs of EVs down 10 years ago. If GM had kept developing the EV1 they would be in EV drivers seat today. Instead they currently have 1 EV that has a battery and drive train purchased from LG. But hey they spent millions of dollars for tv commercials touting their "ultium" EV battery pack! The battery pack that even GM hasn't used in a car yet. Hey GM, why don't you spend money on developing an EV people want to buy instead of tv commercials? Just an idea.
You might be right and Tesla will totally dominate the auto market in years to come. I happen to believe that they'll have plenty of competition.
 

dailybuck777

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Jan 2, 2018
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I texted my son about the sharp decline several days ago and here was his response:
"I'm in it for the long term. That was a tech bubble correction but I'm up 3% today. AMD is more innovated and ahead of intel. CEO Lisa Su knows what she is doing and is aiming to beat Nvidia. I own AMD products they work, and I follow tech news daily. But also NIO [Chinese Tesla] shot up 7% today and should close the day with a 1.5 k return"

So far my son is making money and paying attention to his investments. He is way up so far, but undoubtedly, he will get whacked pretty good some day. No matter what happens, he will almost certainly learn lessons far more profitable than any money he makes on stocks.

About 10 years ago, I owned Red Hat (ultimately made a good return on it) and one day it went down something like 15% because it missed earnings by a penny. Decided that the 33 yr-old MBAs investing for big funds were too dumb for me and pretty much decided to forsake stocks. Did invest $17,000 in panic when Covid started by putting money in S & P 500 fund. Made $5,000. Am happy with my little easy profit.
 

rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
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I texted my son about the sharp decline several days ago and here was his response:
"I'm in it for the long term. That was a tech bubble correction but I'm up 3% today. AMD is more innovated and ahead of intel. CEO Lisa Su knows what she is doing and is aiming to beat Nvidia. I own AMD products they work, and I follow tech news daily. But also NIO [Chinese Tesla] shot up 7% today and should close the day with a 1.5 k return"

So far my son is making money and paying attention to his investments. He is way up so far, but undoubtedly, he will get whacked pretty good some day. No matter what happens, he will almost certainly learn lessons far more profitable than any money he makes on stocks.

About 10 years ago, I owned Red Hat (ultimately made a good return on it) and one day it went down something like 15% because it missed earnings by a penny. Decided that the 33 yr-old MBAs investing for big funds were too dumb for me and pretty much decided to forsake stocks. Did invest $17,000 in panic when Covid started by putting money in S & P 500 fund. Made $5,000. Am happy with my little easy profit.

CEO Lisa Su knows what she is doing and is aiming to beat Nvidia. I own AMD products they work

Every computer I have owned over the last 20 years I've built myself. I'm just in the process of building a new one right now. This is the first system I have ever built that is using an AMD processor instead of Intel.
 
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psu1351

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Sep 4, 2016
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Just load up on Dodecoin! That way when your listening to the Pat Mcafee show and he starts screaming to the moon you can join along from home!
 

rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
1
You might be right and Tesla will totally dominate the auto market in years to come. I happen to believe that they'll have plenty of competition.

You might be right and Tesla will totally dominate the auto market in years to come. I happen to believe that they'll have plenty of competition.

Tesla just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2021. In total, it delivered 184,800 vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.

That's a 109% increase from Q1 of 2020.

That competition might want to start moving a bit faster. I'm not sure adding another cup holder and a usb charging port to the old gas guzzler is going keep working for them.

Kinda reminds of what Jack Rickard(EVTV) wrote about Tesla a few years ago.

EVTV has largely ceased to convert ICE cars to electric drive, which was long our only reason for life. It started in 2009 and while the Tesla Roadster was much discussed, not a single one had ever been actually delivered. If you wanted an electric car in the spring of 2009, you had to build one. There were ZERO models offered by the sum total of all automotive manufacturers worldwide. We defined, aided, abetted, and enabled the tinkerer/innovator stage of the adoption curve and noted numerous times that on achieving “early adopter” phase we were out of it.​
I lied. The outcome was SO assured that by 2017 my mind, with the laser like focus and attention span of a four-year-old, just wandered away. This no longer requires my efforts. The outcome is assured.​
And Tesla was largely the reason. Basically it costs between $20-40,000 to do a good build converting an ICE car to electric drive.​

Tilt and tittle at that all you want, I did a lot of them and a lot of different ways and several were over $100k. Not really unusual among custom car enthusiasts and I expect those guys will be doing electric conversion show cars 50 years from now.​
The Model 3 at $40k is a better car than I can do at $40k.​
Worse, it is kind of a one sided launch. We covered the news of LOTS of different electric cars, and most notably HUNDREDS of VW press releases that never were actually cars. And the conclusion was that it just doesn’t matter. Porsche and BMW were the only ones that had the right stuff to compete with Tesla and they didn’t. All else didn’t matter and couldn’t matter. And yes, Porsche’s Taycan will launch this September 4th and they are going to sell 30,000 or 40,000 of them and THEY STILL WON’T MATTER.​
Tesla just owns it. And at this point, the moats of its battery technology and costing, its Supercharger network, it’s online sales model, the Over the Air Software Updates, and much much more put it SO far out ahead, that the other manufacturers are still announcing the “coming Tesla killer” aimed at the 2013 Tesla Model S. Problem: It is 2019.​
And so we basically got out of converting EV’s BEFORE we got to the early adopter stage. I lied. Because the outcome is not just assured, it is unstoppable.​
But if all else fails, the commonly held marker for the BEGINNING of Everett Rogets adoption curve early adopter stage is 2.5% market penetration.​
So where are we at? The current global market for automobiles is a little squishy on your definition of an automobile, but as a personal transportation device is currently widely regarded as 78 million units annually with about 15 million in the U.S.​
The short thesis is that Tesla CANNOT POSSIBLY meet their projections of 360,000 units this year. Duh. That’s 0.0046 or 0.46%.
ALL electric cars from EVERYBODY all told don’t reach 1% of the market for cars. We aren’t even CLOSE to the “early adopter” stage.​
I’m at the point where if you don’t have Tesla logo on your car you’re not electric and don’t matter. To the point that we are working furiously on things like an OBDII port adapter for the Model 3, or reverse engineering Tesla batteries, not EV batteries, TESLA batteries for solar energy storage. I have a half finished Cadillac Escalade conversion hanging in the air on a lift where it has hung for a year.​
But the blue sky for Tesla is essentially UNLIMITED. They can sell all they make and make all they sell starting at 360,000 units and topping out at 78 million. They are 0.46% of a $2.3 TRILLION dollar market. And they appear to my biased eye to already own ALL of it.​
It reminds me of Sandra Bullock and Sylvester Stallone, in the movie DEMOLITION MAN. In the future, ALL restaurants had consolidated under the brand name TACO BELL. If SOMEBODY doesn’t do SOMETHING pretty quickly, in the future ALL automobiles will be Tesla’s.​
 

LionDeNittany

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
39,436
10,811
1
DFW, TX
Tesla just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2021. In total, it delivered 184,800 vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.

That's a 109% increase from Q1 of 2020.

That competition might want to start moving a bit faster. I'm not sure adding another cup holder and a usb charging port to the old gas guzzler is going keep working for them.

Kinda reminds of what Jack Rickard(EVTV) wrote about Tesla a few years ago.

EVTV has largely ceased to convert ICE cars to electric drive, which was long our only reason for life. It started in 2009 and while the Tesla Roadster was much discussed, not a single one had ever been actually delivered. If you wanted an electric car in the spring of 2009, you had to build one. There were ZERO models offered by the sum total of all automotive manufacturers worldwide. We defined, aided, abetted, and enabled the tinkerer/innovator stage of the adoption curve and noted numerous times that on achieving “early adopter” phase we were out of it.​
I lied. The outcome was SO assured that by 2017 my mind, with the laser like focus and attention span of a four-year-old, just wandered away. This no longer requires my efforts. The outcome is assured.​
And Tesla was largely the reason. Basically it costs between $20-40,000 to do a good build converting an ICE car to electric drive.​
Tilt and tittle at that all you want, I did a lot of them and a lot of different ways and several were over $100k. Not really unusual among custom car enthusiasts and I expect those guys will be doing electric conversion show cars 50 years from now.​
The Model 3 at $40k is a better car than I can do at $40k.​
Worse, it is kind of a one sided launch. We covered the news of LOTS of different electric cars, and most notably HUNDREDS of VW press releases that never were actually cars. And the conclusion was that it just doesn’t matter. Porsche and BMW were the only ones that had the right stuff to compete with Tesla and they didn’t. All else didn’t matter and couldn’t matter. And yes, Porsche’s Taycan will launch this September 4th and they are going to sell 30,000 or 40,000 of them and THEY STILL WON’T MATTER.​
Tesla just owns it. And at this point, the moats of its battery technology and costing, its Supercharger network, it’s online sales model, the Over the Air Software Updates, and much much more put it SO far out ahead, that the other manufacturers are still announcing the “coming Tesla killer” aimed at the 2013 Tesla Model S. Problem: It is 2019.​
And so we basically got out of converting EV’s BEFORE we got to the early adopter stage. I lied. Because the outcome is not just assured, it is unstoppable.​
But if all else fails, the commonly held marker for the BEGINNING of Everett Rogets adoption curve early adopter stage is 2.5% market penetration.​
So where are we at? The current global market for automobiles is a little squishy on your definition of an automobile, but as a personal transportation device is currently widely regarded as 78 million units annually with about 15 million in the U.S.​
The short thesis is that Tesla CANNOT POSSIBLY meet their projections of 360,000 units this year. Duh. That’s 0.0046 or 0.46%.​
ALL electric cars from EVERYBODY all told don’t reach 1% of the market for cars. We aren’t even CLOSE to the “early adopter” stage.​
I’m at the point where if you don’t have Tesla logo on your car you’re not electric and don’t matter. To the point that we are working furiously on things like an OBDII port adapter for the Model 3, or reverse engineering Tesla batteries, not EV batteries, TESLA batteries for solar energy storage. I have a half finished Cadillac Escalade conversion hanging in the air on a lift where it has hung for a year.​
But the blue sky for Tesla is essentially UNLIMITED. They can sell all they make and make all they sell starting at 360,000 units and topping out at 78 million. They are 0.46% of a $2.3 TRILLION dollar market. And they appear to my biased eye to already own ALL of it.​
It reminds me of Sandra Bullock and Sylvester Stallone, in the movie DEMOLITION MAN. In the future, ALL restaurants had consolidated under the brand name TACO BELL. If SOMEBODY doesn’t do SOMETHING pretty quickly, in the future ALL automobiles will be Tesla’s.​

Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles

The number of vehicles sold in Q1 in the US market only in the is is estimated to be about 4.2mm

You reported Tesla worldwide numbers.

Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.

LdN
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
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Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles

The number of vehicles sold in Q1 in the US market only in the is is estimated to be about 4.2mm

You reported Tesla worldwide numbers.

Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.

LdN

Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles

What was their growth rate compared to Q1 last year? Oh wait I just found it for GM:

GM sales increased by 4 percent to 642,250 units during the first quarter of 2021 in the United States market. Sales increased at Buick, Cadillac and GMC brands, while decreasing at Chevrolet.​


Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.


Stock values are based on what investors believe will happen in the future. You have GM growing at 4 percent and Tesla at 109%. Which one is more appealing to investors? We already know which one is more appealing to investors as you provided the answer - -Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.
 

LionDeNittany

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
39,436
10,811
1
DFW, TX
Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles


What was their growth rate compared to Q1 last year? Oh wait I just found it for GM:

GM sales increased by 4 percent to 642,250 units during the first quarter of 2021 in the United States market. Sales increased at Buick, Cadillac and GMC brands, while decreasing at Chevrolet.​


Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.

Stock values are based on what investors believe will happen in the future. You have GM growing at 4 percent and Tesla at 109%. Which one is more appealing to investors? We already know which one is more appealing to investors as you provided the answer - -Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.

I don't really know if you're arguing with yourself or not here.

By every single metric TSLA is overvalued.

You quoted a delivery number that is a drop in the bucket of worldwide auto sales. I demonstrated just how tiny it is.

Growth with small totals... like Tesla, is to be expected.

Investors right now buying TSLA are doing so because of a dream. Whatever, it's their money.

But as I pointed out if they sold every car in the world they would still be overvalued.

Do I care? No. But this is a discussion of valuation. And, TSLAs valuation is a joke.

Ldn
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
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Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles

The number of vehicles sold in Q1 in the US market only in the is is estimated to be about 4.2mm

You reported Tesla worldwide numbers.

Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.

LdN

Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles

What was their growth rate compared to Q1 last year? Oh wait I just found it for GM:

GM sales increased by 4 percent to 642,250 units during the first quarter of 2021 in the United States market. Sales increased at Buick, Cadillac and GMC brands, while decreasing at Chevrolet.​


Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.


Stock values are based on what investors believe will happen in the future. You have GM growing at 4 percent and Tesla at 109%. Which one is more appealing to investors? We already know which one is more appealing to investors as you provided the answer - -Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.
 

PSUSignore

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
5,959
3,627
1
I texted my son about the sharp decline several days ago and here was his response:
"I'm in it for the long term. That was a tech bubble correction but I'm up 3% today.
Saying "I'm up 3% today" doesn't sound like someone investing with a long term mindset.
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
1
I don't really know if you're arguing with yourself or not here.

By every single metric TSLA is overvalued.

You quoted a delivery number that is a drop in the bucket of worldwide auto sales. I demonstrated just how tiny it is.

Growth with small totals... like Tesla, is to be expected.

Investors right now buying TSLA are doing so because of a dream. Whatever, it's their money.

But as I pointed out if they sold every car in the world they would still be overvalued.

Do I care? No. But this is a discussion of valuation. And, TSLAs valuation is a joke.

Ldn

By every single metric TSLA is overvalued.

Except the only metric that counts, the price investors are willing to pay for the stock.

You quoted a delivery number that is a drop in the bucket of worldwide auto sales. I demonstrated just how tiny it is.


In 2020 they sold 500,000 cars. They are predicting 50% sales growth for multiple years going forward. Now they are saying that 2021 growth may exceed 50%. Some are saying they may be able to hit a million cars in 2021. We know they have two new mega factories coming on line later in 2021 in Berlin and Texas. These factories are will supposedly be able to produce several million cars a year. They could very well be selling 4 million plus cars a year by 2024.

And that doesn't even account for their storage business. That business is currently growing at twice the rate of the car business and is projected to be a huge market.

Palm Beach, Fla., Sept. 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The global energy storage​
market is projected to grow to $546 billion by the year 2035, according to a​
report from Lux Research . One of the largest markets will likely be​
residential energy storage, with an expected compound annual growth rate of​
76% and $8 billion revenue increase over the next three years.​

Growth with small totals... like Tesla, is to be expected.


Yeah, those numbers aren't so small any more. When you are growing at 50% plus per year the numbers can get pretty large quickly.

Investors right now buying TSLA are doing so because of a dream. Whatever, it's their money.


Investors look at the future not the past. If you think electric cars are the future what is the best company right now to invest in? It ain't Ford and GM...... Toyota? They are still working on hydrogen.....

But as I pointed out if they sold every car in the world they would still be overvalued.


What does that even mean? The value is what people are willing to pay for it.

Do I care? No. But this is a discussion of valuation. And, TSLAs valuation is a joke.

I guess we will have to see how things turn out over the next 5 or 10 years.
 

LionDeNittany

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
39,436
10,811
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But as I pointed out if they sold every car in the world they would still be overvalued.

What does that even mean? The value is what people are willing to pay for it.

Do I care? No. But this is a discussion of valuation. And, TSLAs valuation is a joke.

I guess we will have to see how things turn out over the next 5 or 10 years.

Again I'm not sure if you are arguing with yourself or some imaginary friend.

If I say a stock is overvalued, you saying it isn't because that's the price is moronic.

It isn't an argument. It is some weird attempt at trying to look correct.

Stocks have values based on forward earnings. Not factories. Not ceos. Forward earnings.

Tesla is currently trading at a PE over 1k.

LdN
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
1
Again I'm not sure if you are arguing with yourself or some imaginary friend.

If I say a stock is overvalued, you saying it isn't because that's the price is moronic.

It isn't an argument. It is some weird attempt at trying to look correct.

Stocks have values based on forward earnings. Not factories. Not ceos. Forward earnings.

Tesla is currently trading at a PE over 1k.

LdN

I guess we will have to wait 5 years or so to see what happens with those earnings then.
 

dailybuck777

Well-Known Member
Jan 2, 2018
7,256
9,363
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Saying "I'm up 3% today" doesn't sound like someone investing with a long term mindset.
My son was just responding to the news about the big AMD drop. He has made about three purchases of stock in the last 24 months and that is it. He isn't going in and out of the market. He is paying a lot of attention to the market, which is good.
 

rumble_lion

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2011
18,669
4,080
1
Again I'm not sure if you are arguing with yourself or some imaginary friend.

If I say a stock is overvalued, you saying it isn't because that's the price is moronic.

It isn't an argument. It is some weird attempt at trying to look correct.

Stocks have values based on forward earnings. Not factories. Not ceos. Forward earnings.

Tesla is currently trading at a PE over 1k.

LdN

First quarter EV sales in the US. Tesla's second best selling model sold more than the Chevy Bolt, Ford Mach E, Audi Etron and Nissan Leaf combined.......

Note: Telsa did not manufacture a single Model S or Model X during the first quarter as the production line was shut down due to retooling for a refresh of both cars. The only sales of these models were cars that were produced at the end of 2020. Despite all this Tesla was able to sell more of these cars than VW ID.4, the BMW I3 and the VW e-Golf.

Tesla Model Y - 48,354
Tesla Model 3 - 26,983
Chevy Bolt - 9,025
Ford Mach E - 6,614
Audi Etron - 4,324
Nissan Leaf - 2,925
Porsche Taycan - 2,008
Tesla Model S - 505
Tesla Model X - 505
VW ID.4 - 474
BMW I3 - 340
VW e-Golf - 22
 

LionDeNittany

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
39,436
10,811
1
DFW, TX
First quarter EV sales in the US. Tesla's second best selling model sold more than the Chevy Bolt, Ford Mach E, Audi Etron and Nissan Leaf combined.......

Note: Telsa did not manufacture a single Model S or Model X during the first quarter as the production line was shut down due to retooling for a refresh of both cars. The only sales of these models were cars that were produced at the end of 2020. Despite all this Tesla was able to sell more of these cars than VW ID.4, the BMW I3 and the VW e-Golf.

Tesla Model Y - 48,354
Tesla Model 3 - 26,983
Chevy Bolt - 9,025
Ford Mach E - 6,614
Audi Etron - 4,324
Nissan Leaf - 2,925
Porsche Taycan - 2,008
Tesla Model S - 505
Tesla Model X - 505
VW ID.4 - 474
BMW I3 - 340
VW e-Golf - 22

This does not prove or disprove the stock price being overvalued.

It's like there is some disconnect in your head regarding this conversation.

LdN
 

NittanyBuff24

Well-Known Member
Jan 29, 2007
504
448
1
Anybody have any good penny stocks they like, I have a few bucks sitting in there itching for a long shot ;) thnx
 

YogiMan71

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Oct 20, 2001
896
517
1
Colorado
Some momentum buys I made earlier this year I have done well on are; swks, qrvo, panw. Long term holds that have been solid gold are; aapl hd, nvda, msft, and qqqx. Speculative plays I am taking small positions in are ; AI, AVXL, CURLF, and RBLX. I am up on everyone of these currently with the exception of rblx which I just purchased today. These are not recommendations, just what has worked for me, do your own research and due diligence. Good luck and happy trading.
 

86Engineer

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Jul 25, 2015
361
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Realize that in that in the stock market, you are essentially playing chess against a few hundred people with degrees in finance, years of experience, and a lot more resources than you do...

I had my own Vanguard account at the same time I had a managed account.....the people with degrees in finance and years of experience don't impress me all that much.
 
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dailybuck777

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Jan 2, 2018
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My son is dipping his toes into African crypto currency. I have been thinking of crypto currencies and may buy $1,000 or $2,000 worth of this to force myself to pay attention and learn about them. Here is a recent email from him:

"Hey dad,
I've been getting into cryptocurrency lately and since you seem to be interested, I've accumulated research/videos that I believe will provide you value in how blockchains work and how they will take over the "trust" that current institutions provide us.

I just bought $1,000 worth of Cardano (ADA) at an average of $1.49 a coin which is the Bitcoin for Africa to solve their instability issues with their fiat currencies. I believe in the leader/CEO Charles Hoskinson who worked on Bitcoin and Etherum and then founded ADA due to the prior two currencies being inefficient through power consumption and transactions per second, so Bitcoin and Etherum can hold value but they are not scalable currencies for the masses to you daily.

Here is Charles explaining the power of cryptocurrencies, their impact, and an introduction to how blockchains replace "trust" in a Ted talk, an interview of where Bitcoin and ADA are currently, and how blockchains can replace middlemen like Google, Twitter, etc..., and further documentaries explaining how blockchains work."

 

LionDeNittany

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May 29, 2001
39,436
10,811
1
DFW, TX
My son is dipping his toes into African crypto currency. I have been thinking of crypto currencies and may buy $1,000 or $2,000 worth of this to force myself to pay attention and learn about them. Here is a recent email from him:

"Hey dad,
I've been getting into cryptocurrency lately and since you seem to be interested, I've accumulated research/videos that I believe will provide you value in how blockchains work and how they will take over the "trust" that current institutions provide us.

I just bought $1,000 worth of Cardano (ADA) at an average of $1.49 a coin which is the Bitcoin for Africa to solve their instability issues with their fiat currencies. I believe in the leader/CEO Charles Hoskinson who worked on Bitcoin and Etherum and then founded ADA due to the prior two currencies being inefficient through power consumption and transactions per second, so Bitcoin and Etherum can hold value but they are not scalable currencies for the masses to you daily.

Here is Charles explaining the power of cryptocurrencies, their impact, and an introduction to how blockchains replace "trust" in a Ted talk, an interview of where Bitcoin and ADA are currently, and how blockchains can replace middlemen like Google, Twitter, etc..., and further documentaries explaining how blockchains work."


I think when this thread started and I recommended BTC it was under 10k and AMD was above its current level.

One of my friends in NZ has been talking up ADA. But he has been since it was at 20 cents.

You seemingly bought ADA at its all time high... or just about. At 1.43 the market cap us about $50bln.

I don't know much about their production. How many coins per year etc.

I am very familiar with BTC and ETH and both have effectively a finite number of coins. In the case of BTC a finite number of coins. With ETH a finite number of coins per year.

You should read the ADA white paper and determine where the value lies.

My general view of coins... aside from trading, is that there is BTC, which is similar to Gold, there is ETH which is effectively the banking system, and then there are a serious number of knockoffs of ETH, each promising to be better.

LdN
 
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rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
18,669
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Toyota delivered 495k vehicles.

GM delivered 642k vehicles

The number of vehicles sold in Q1 in the US market only in the is is estimated to be about 4.2mm

You reported Tesla worldwide numbers.

Yet, Tesla is valued at more than all other auto companies combined.

LdN

Interesting financial comparison between GM, Ford and Tesla

Tesla

Cash: 17 billion
Debt: 10.8 billion

GM:

Cash: 23 billion
Debt: 111 billion

Ford:

Cash: 30 billion
Debt: 163 billion
 
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LionDeNittany

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May 29, 2001
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It looks as if Tesla is in a much better position for the future than either GM or Ford.

Perhaps it's time to stop making it illegal for Tesla to sell it's cars in the US? Just a thought.....

No this shows nothing really. GM produces 15x the number of cars of Tesla.

Debt is used for working capital and for plants and equipment.

Do the math.

TsLa would need to double sales 4x to catch GM. That is not possible without much more debt. Of course, the one wrinkle is their credit rating blows.

Regarding your second comment, I love Tesla cars. I hope all restrictions you claim are removed. My next car purchase will be electric.

I am somewhat surprised the wokists are anti Elon suddenly. No idea why. Seems like he made a great product and is out there talking up his stock. Good for him.

LdN
 
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fkkkjm

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Jun 2, 2007
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It looks as if Tesla is in a much better position for the future than either GM or Ford.

Perhaps it's time to stop making it illegal for Tesla to sell it's cars in the US? Just a thought.....

why would a shareholder want an investment sitting on a pile of cash? You’re either in investing in internal projects, buying companies, or giving back via share repurchases or dividends. If my cost of debt is 4% and my shareholders want 10%, I don’t get 10% by sitting on cash, or using my cash flows to retire debt early.
 

fkkkjm

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Jun 2, 2007
1,489
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No this shows nothing really. GM produces 15x the number of cars of Tesla.

Debt is used for working capital and for plants and equipment.

Do the math.

TsLa would need to double sales 4x to catch GM. That is not possible without much more debt. Of course, the one wrinkle is their credit rating blows.

Regarding your second comment, I love Tesla cars. I hope all restrictions you claim are removed. My next car purchase will be electric.

I am somewhat surprised the wokists are anti Elon suddenly. No idea why. Seems like he made a great product and is out there talking up his stock. Good for him.

LdN
Also- based on tax laws and financial metrics, most companies are well served to carry debt to the point where the debt tax shields are outweighed by financial distress— “static trade off theory”.
 
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rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
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No this shows nothing really. GM produces 15x the number of cars of Tesla.

Debt is used for working capital and for plants and equipment.

Do the math.

TsLa would need to double sales 4x to catch GM. That is not possible without much more debt. Of course, the one wrinkle is their credit rating blows.

Regarding your second comment, I love Tesla cars. I hope all restrictions you claim are removed. My next car purchase will be electric.

I am somewhat surprised the wokists are anti Elon suddenly. No idea why. Seems like he made a great product and is out there talking up his stock. Good for him.

LdN

No this shows nothing really. GM produces 15x the number of cars of Tesla.

Debt is used for working capital and for plants and equipment.

Do the math.

How does the math work out when half that debt is capital equipment and plants that aren't needed any more?

TsLa would need to double sales 4x to catch GM. That is not possible without much more debt. Of course, the one wrinkle is their credit rating blows.

Tesla will probably double sales this year over last and probably double them again in 2022. It won't take long.....

And it certainly won't take 100 billion in capital to do it. They are doing some pretty amazing stuff when it comes to battery and car manufacturing.

 

LionDeNittany

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May 29, 2001
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No this shows nothing really. GM produces 15x the number of cars of Tesla.

Debt is used for working capital and for plants and equipment.


Do the math.

How does the math work out when half that debt is capital equipment and plants that aren't needed any more?

TsLa would need to double sales 4x to catch GM. That is not possible without much more debt. Of course, the one wrinkle is their credit rating blows.

Tesla will probably double sales this year over last and probably double them again in 2022. It won't take long.....

And it certainly won't take 100 billion in capital to do it. They are doing some pretty amazing stuff when it comes to battery and car manufacturing.


Again not sure who you are arguing with here.

Something being great does not mean it supports the stock valuation.

TSLA doubling sales 4 years in a row would require massive amounts of debt. There is no way around that.

Your point about debt really wasn't very well thought out and GM and Ford are hardly strong financial companies.

LdN
 

fairfaxlion2

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Oct 12, 2014
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AMD is making better chips right now, but the history of the industry says don't bet against Intel in the long-run. Right now both companies have engineers at the top, suggesting that they are prioritizing engineering and innovation. Intel had a finance person in charge for a while. Big mistake, IMO
 
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LionDeNittany

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AMD is making better chips right now, but the history of the industry says don't bet against Intel in the long-run. Right now both companies have engineers at the top, suggesting that they are prioritizing engineering and innovation. Intel had a finance person in charge for a while. Big mistake, IMO

Intel made some pretty dumb decisions the last two years. Seems like they are moving in the right direction again.

LdN
 

fairfaxlion2

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Intel made some pretty dumb decisions the last two years. Seems like they are moving in the right direction again.

LdN

My sense is that AMD is destroying them with the Ryzen chips, but the cycles are so insanely fast in that industry that the script could totally flip within a year.
 
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fkkkjm

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For the pro Tesla crowd - put your money where your mouth is. Short GM and Ford and borrow to go long 3-4x on Tesla. That would at least prove your conviction.
 

fairfaxlion2

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Oct 12, 2014
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For the pro Tesla crowd - put your money where your mouth is. Short GM and Ford and borrow to go long 3-4x on Tesla. That would at least prove your conviction.

It seems like Tesla would be better off if they could somehow get rid of Musk. He doesn't understand the concept of scope creep, evidenced by the totally unnecessary self-driving features. He will ruin his own companies with his inability to sort out the good ideas from the insanely stupid ideas. He wants to colonize a planet that is freezing and totally uninhabitable. That elevator doesn't go all the way to the top floor.
 

lazydave841

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Jan 9, 2021
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How much of the Tesla cash is related to the BTC sell off? Just curious. Question for someone who knows way better than I.