Seed Projections

[Fink]

Here goes nothing:

125 -- Rivera -- Piccininni -- Bresser -- Lee -- Mueller
133 -- Fix -- Suriano -- Micic -- Phillipi -- Lizak RBY (10-12)
141 -- Diakomihalis -- McKenna -- Lee -- Eirman -- Alber
149 -- Ashnault -- Jordan -- Finesilver -- Kolodzik -- Mauller Berge (10-12)
157 -- Nolf -- Berger -- Hidlay -- Pantaleo -- Deakin
165 -- Marinelli -- Joseph -- Massa -- Wick -- Shields
174 -- Hall -- Lewis -- Valencia -- Amine -- Kutler
184 -- Martin -- Zavatsky -- Rasheed -- Dean -- Preisch
197 -- Nickal -- Moore -- Weigel -- Brucki -- Miklus
285 -- Cassar -- Steveson -- White -- Wood -- Hemida

Toughest calls -- Bresser/Lee/Mueller, Lee/Eirman (think Lee has better resume), Massa/Wick (hope they go Wick/Massa), Rasheed/Dean, Moore/Weigel (2-3 so who cares), Cassar/Steveson/White (round and round -- Cassar won the toughest conference -- 8 of the top 10 are in the Big 10, he also beat Sveson, which is the best win).

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Pretty good. Some humorous stuff on Themat forum with several guys not giving the benefit of the doubt on seeding to any Penn State guy where it’s anything but a lock (I.e. other than Nolf/Nickal).

One troll had Lewis 1 which would have been stupid even if he hadn’t lost.

 

[RD41]

Here goes nothing:

125 -- Rivera -- Piccininni -- Bresser -- Lee -- Mueller
133 -- Fix -- Suriano -- Micic -- Phillipi -- Lizak RBY (10-12)
141 -- Diakomihalis -- McKenna -- Lee -- Eirman -- Alber
149 -- Ashnault -- Jordan -- Finesilver -- Kolodzik -- Mauller Berge (10-12)
157 -- Nolf -- Berger -- Hidlay -- Pantaleo -- Deakin
165 -- Marinelli -- Joseph -- Massa -- Wick -- Shields
174 -- Hall -- Lewis -- Valencia -- Amine -- Kutler
184 -- Martin -- Zavatsky -- Rasheed -- Dean -- Preisch
197 -- Nickal -- Moore -- Weigel -- Brucki -- Miklus
285 -- Cassar -- Steveson -- White -- Wood -- Hemida

Toughest calls -- Bresser/Lee/Mueller, Lee/Eirman (think Lee has better resume), Massa/Wick (hope they go Wick/Massa), Rasheed/Dean, Moore/Weigel (2-3 so who cares), Cassar/Steveson/White (round and round -- Cassar won the toughest conference -- 8 of the top 10 are in the Big 10, he also beat Sveson, which is the best win).

Did White lose this year?

 

[NittanyChris]

Did White lose this year?

Yes, to Steveson.

 

[RD41]

Ahh, I see now. Thanks. Somewhere along the way I missed that outcome.

 

[jack66]

Pretty good. Some humorous stuff on Themat forum with several guys not giving the benefit of the doubt on seeding to any Penn State guy where it’s anything but a lock (I.e. other than Nolf/Nickal).

One troll had Lewis 1 which would have been stupid even if he hadn’t lost.

Yeah, with 7 wrestlers in the top-3 it's hard to imagine PSU doesn't have the Championship all but locked-up.

At least the posters over there can make it look more competitive on paper if they fudge the seeds a bit.

 

[Ja1339]

Here goes nothing:

125 -- Rivera -- Piccininni -- Bresser -- Lee -- Mueller
133 -- Fix -- Suriano -- Micic -- Phillipi -- Lizak RBY (10-12)
141 -- Diakomihalis -- McKenna -- Lee -- Eirman -- Alber
149 -- Ashnault -- Jordan -- Finesilver -- Kolodzik -- Mauller Berge (10-12)
157 -- Nolf -- Berger -- Hidlay -- Pantaleo -- Deakin
165 -- Marinelli -- Joseph -- Massa -- Wick -- Shields
174 -- Hall -- Lewis -- Valencia -- Amine -- Kutler
184 -- Martin -- Zavatsky -- Rasheed -- Dean -- Preisch
197 -- Nickal -- Moore -- Weigel -- Brucki -- Miklus
285 -- Cassar -- Steveson -- White -- Wood -- Hemida

Toughest calls -- Bresser/Lee/Mueller, Lee/Eirman (think Lee has better resume), Massa/Wick (hope they go Wick/Massa), Rasheed/Dean, Moore/Weigel (2-3 so who cares), Cassar/Steveson/White (round and round -- Cassar won the toughest conference -- 8 of the top 10 are in the Big 10, he also beat Sveson, which is the best win).

If I'd been in a coma for the last three months, I'd be convinced that Spencer Lee with the 4th seed was a misprint.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Pretty good. Some humorous stuff on Themat forum with several guys not giving the benefit of the doubt on seeding to any Penn State guy where it’s anything but a lock (I.e. other than Nolf/Nickal).

One troll had Lewis 1 which would have been stupid even if he hadn’t lost.

Some people are sill that way...don't want to accept the obvious unless the obvious applies to their favorite. Anyone seeding or selecting Nolf or Nickal anywhere but #1 is an idiot.

 

[Fink]

On further reflection -- Wick 3, Shields 4, Massa 5

 

[kingslayer_85]

I w

Here goes nothing:

125 -- Rivera -- Piccininni -- Bresser -- Lee -- Mueller
133 -- Fix -- Suriano -- Micic -- Phillipi -- Lizak RBY (10-12)
141 -- Diakomihalis -- McKenna -- Lee -- Eirman -- Alber
149 -- Ashnault -- Jordan -- Finesilver -- Kolodzik -- Mauller Berge (10-12)
157 -- Nolf -- Berger -- Hidlay -- Pantaleo -- Deakin
165 -- Marinelli -- Joseph -- Massa -- Wick -- Shields
174 -- Hall -- Lewis -- Valencia -- Amine -- Kutler
184 -- Martin -- Zavatsky -- Rasheed -- Dean -- Preisch
197 -- Nickal -- Moore -- Weigel -- Brucki -- Miklus
285 -- Cassar -- Steveson -- White -- Wood -- Hemida

Toughest calls -- Bresser/Lee/Mueller, Lee/Eirman (think Lee has better resume), Massa/Wick (hope they go Wick/Massa), Rasheed/Dean, Moore/Weigel (2-3 so who cares), Cassar/Steveson/White (round and round -- Cassar won the toughest conference -- 8 of the top 10 are in the Big 10, he also beat Sveson, which is the best win).

So Massa will be seeded higher than Chance.

 

[tylersmyth]

Pletcher has last win vs rby and h2h over Lizak.

 

[Fink]

I put Pletcher at 6 but could see a bunch of combos between him, DeSanto and Lizak. RBY below all of them.

 

[RoarLions1]

Cassar/Steveson/White is closer, apparently, than some think. A beats B, B beats C, C beats A, and all three beat everyone else they wrestle. Body-of-work-wise;

Cassar/White
-- White wins HTH
-- Cassar beats Steveson, who beat White
-- Common opponents;
------ Beard (Cassar - TF, White - Dec)
------ Gremmer (Cassar - MD, White - Dec)
------ Wood (Cassar - MD, White - Dec)

Cassar/Steveson
-- Cassar wins HTH
-- Common opponents;
------ Jennings (Cassar - MD (2x), Steveson - Dec)
------ Jensen (Cassar - Dec, Steveson - Fall & Major)
------ Hillger (Cassar - Dec, Steveson - Major)
------ Wood (Cassar - MD, Steveson - Dec)
------ White (Cassar - Loss, Steveson - Dec)

Steveson/White
-- Steveson wins HTH
-- Common opponents;
------ Colucci (Steveson - TF, White - Dec)
------ AJ Nevills (Steveson - Major, White - TF)
------ Wolters (Steveson - TF, White - Major)
------ Cassar (Steveson - Loss, White - Dec)

Really, really close.
-- Cassar had more dominance over common opponents compared to White.
-- With limited data, hard to say for Steveson and White re. common opponents.
-- Steveson had more dominance over common opponents than Cassar.

So, I'm back where I began, little separation.

If late season (conference tournament) wins count a smidgeon more than earlier season wins, the Cassar victory over Steveson is advantage Cassar. The Big Ten Conference has a tougher 285 class than the Big12, with Jennings, Jensen, Parris, Hillger, Hemida, and Stoll.

Next, Cassar has an overall Bonus Points percentage of 73.1%, vs 56.2% for Steveson, and 55.2% for White.

My seeds would be #1 Cassar, #2 Steveson, #3 White, but ever so slightly.

 

[tylersmyth]

I think white gets the 1 seed but wouldn’t be shocked if Cassar did

 

[RoarLions1]

I think white gets the 1 seed but wouldn’t be shocked if Cassar did

Based on???

 

[orange nole]

Wasn’t sure if I heard right during the broadcast yesterday...are they seeding every wrestler/every weight this year? 1 through 33?

 

[tylersmyth]

Based on???

H2h on Cassar, when it’s that close h2h usually wins out

 

[Foreverinbluejeans57]

Hate to say it but is white gets the 1 seed it’ll be from coaches wanting to stick it to penn state. Everyone knows the matchup they want to see in the finals, and not saying white can’t take Cassar again, but the more impressive year belongs to Anthony.

 

[okinburg1]

On further reflection -- Wick 3, Shields 4, Massa 5

Marstellar 6?

 

[JBott]

H2h on Cassar, when it’s that close h2h usually wins out

But he can't be seeded over Stevenson, who beat him 8-2!

 

[Fink]

Roar, my analysis was about the same with two other additions. First, as between the three of them, only Steveson does not have a first place conference finish. Second, using the quality win tiering (1-6 that Flo referenced last year), they have the following tier victories:

Cassar (1) Steveson, Wood & Parris (maybe a 2 now), (2) Hilger, Jennings x2, Jensen x2 & Singletary (maybe a 3), (3) Voss, (5) Goodhart and (6) Gremmel
White (1) Cassar and Wood, (3) Stoll (maybe a 4 now) and Thomas, (4) Haines and Orndorff, (5) lam, AJ Nevills and Andrews and (6) Gremmel, Colucci and Ngati
Steveson (1) White and Wood, (2) Hilger x2, Hemida, Jensen & Jennings, (3) Stoll, (4) Gillilland-Daniel x2 and Orndorff, (5) AJ Nevills and (6) Colucci

Cassar and White each also beat N.Nevills while Steveson beat Tanner Hall.

If rank them 1-3 in the 7 categories identified for selecting at-large qualifiers, the results are the following

Head to head -- round robin wash
Quality Wins: Cassar/Steveson/White
Coaches: t/b/d
Common Opp.: Steveson/CassarWhite
RPI: White/Steveson/Cassar
Qualifying event placement: Cassar and White/Steveson third
Win % virtually the same, 27-1, 26-1 & 25-1

Cassar 8.5
White 7.5
Steveson 8

 

[RoarLions1]

H2h on Cassar, when it’s that close h2h usually wins out

So, why wouldn't Steveson get the no. 1 seed, since he won HTH vs White. Wait, then why wouldn't Cassar get the no. 1 seed, since he won HTH vs Steveson. And round, and round, and round we go.

 

[RoarLions1]

Roar, my analysis was about the same with two other additions. First, as between the three of them, only Steveson does not have a first place conference finish. Second, using the quality win tiering (1-6 that Flo referenced last year), they have the following tier victories:

Cassar (1) Steveson, Wood & Parris (maybe a 2 now), (2) Hilger, Jennings x2, Jensen x2 & Singletary (maybe a 3), (3) Voss, (5) Goodhart and (6) Gremmel
White (1) Cassar and Wood, (3) Stoll (maybe a 4 now) and Thomas, (4) Haines and Orndorff, (5) lam, AJ Nevills and Andrews and (6) Gremmel, Colucci and Ngati
Steveson (1) White and Wood, (2) Hilger x2, Hemida, Jensen & Jennings, (3) Stoll, (4) Gillilland-Daniel x2 and Orndorff, (5) AJ Nevills and (6) Colucci

Cassar and White each also beat N.Nevills while Steveson beat Tanner Hall.

If rank them 1-3 in the 7 categories identified for selecting at-large qualifiers, the results are the following

Head to head -- round robin wash
Quality Wins: Cassar/Steveson/White
Coaches: t/b/d
Common Opp.: Steveson/CassarWhite
RPI: White/Steveson/Cassar
Qualifying event placement: Cassar and White/Steveson third
Win % virtually the same, 27-1, 26-1 & 25-1

Cassar 8.5
White 7.5
Steveson 8

Yes, saw that. Thanks.

I appreciate logic and data. Emotion and illogic, not so much.

 

[dsites52]

Hate to say it but is white gets the 1 seed it’ll be from coaches wanting to stick it to penn state. Everyone knows the matchup they want to see in the finals, and not saying white can’t take Cassar again, but the more impressive year belongs to Anthony.

You know what they say, money talks, but it don't sing and dance and it don't walk!

But in all seriousness, if it goes White, Cassar, Gable, then I want a full episode of FRL to complain about how the NCAA seeding is garbage.

 

[y2jriden]

So, why wouldn't Steveson get the no. 1 seed, since he won HTH vs White. Wait, then why wouldn't Cassar get the no. 1 seed, since he won HTH vs Steveson. And round, and round, and round we go.

I was typing almost the exact same thing and then saw you had already said it.

 

[js8793]

Hate to say it but is white gets the 1 seed it’ll be from coaches wanting to stick it to penn state. Everyone knows the matchup they want to see in the finals, and not saying white can’t take Cassar again, but the more impressive year belongs to Anthony.

White has a legit case for #1. If he gets it, it's not to "stick it to penn state." Somebody is getting screwed there.

 

[tylersmyth]

So, why wouldn't Steveson get the no. 1 seed, since he won HTH vs White. Wait, then why wouldn't Cassar get the no. 1 seed, since he won HTH vs Steveson. And round, and round, and round we go.

because Stevenson lost his last match in the conference finals, I mean that matters. White won his conference tournament. I gave my prediction and my reasoning. I absolutely could be wrong but I think it goes
1. White
2. Cassar
3. Stevenson

Stevenson lost to Cassar h2h in the conference finals. White beat Cassar h2h and won his conference finals. So the 1 comes down to Cassar or white, white holds the h2h.

 

[Foreverinbluejeans57]

White has a legit case for #1. If he gets it, it's not to "stick it to penn state." Somebody is getting screwed there.

If someone has to get screwed it should be the guy with the lower bonus rate, and the one who didn’t beat a current #1 seed

 

[js8793]

If someone has to get screwed it should be the guy with the lower bonus rate, and the one who didn’t beat a current #1 seed

That's the argument for Cassar, but the H2H for White has a lot of power too. White hasn't been beaten since November too. I think there are 2 legit possibilities:

1) Cassar 2) Gable 3) White or 1) White 2) Cassar 3) Gable

As a fan, I won't be upset with either. Remember, White-Gable was a one move match. The score was very misleading. White can absolutely beat him too. Great group of heavies.

 

[Media Fan]

Wasn’t sure if I heard right during the broadcast yesterday...are they seeding every wrestler/every weight this year? 1 through 33?

That is what I heard from BTN.

 

[pish69]

I would think it comes down to the next coaches poll..If Cassar is 1 he gets the 1, if White is 1 he gets it...

 

[ezrahallam]

Here's what I got for a seeding matrix at 285.
I used the seeding criteria explanation that Flo gave last year. https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6131827-how-does-the-ncaa-seeding-process-work

I took W/L records, RPI, common opponents and H2H from Wrestlestat. I didn't award quality wins in tiers because honestly, I'm not sure anyone knows how exactly that works. That is one area where they saw splitting point is possible, but I can't figure out how they split them from the examples. I just gave each wrestler a point for a win over a NQ. I'll update those after we see the full field tomorrow. We don't know the coaches ranking yet either.

White actually has more victories over NQ than either Cassar or Steveson. Depending on how the tiers of quality wins shake out, that could change. But even if the coaches put Cassar #1, and the Quality Wins swing over to Cassar, they would still be tied 50/50.

A couple interesting things-
-Gable and Cassar wrestled a lot different schedule that White. White's quality wins are over almost completely different people than Cassar/Gable.
-These guys are all crazy close.
RPI- White 0.7028, Steveson 0.7009, Cassar, 0.6974
Win %- Steveson 96.4%, White 96.3%, Cassar 96.2%
Wins over NQ- White 11, Cassar 9, Steveson 8
You might as well throw their names in a hat.

1) White
2) Cassar
3) Steveson

 

[LemonPie]

Tom Ryan and Coleman Scott on the coaches ranking committee for 285. No good.

 

[RoarLions1]

because Stevenson lost his last match in the conference finals, I mean that matters. White won his conference tournament. I gave my prediction and my reasoning. I absolutely could be wrong but I think it goes
1. White
2. Cassar
3. Stevenson

Stevenson lost to Cassar h2h in the conference finals. White beat Cassar h2h and won his conference finals. So the 1 comes down to Cassar or white, white holds the h2h.

Use this...

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...ing/d1/men/2018-19D1MWR_SelectionsProcess.pdf

 

[RoarLions1]

Tom Ryan and Coleman Scott on the coaches ranking committee for 285. No good.

As are Azevedo, Greenlee, Bentley, Steiner, Zalesky, and Hill.

It will be interesting to see how the conference tourneys impact RPI. AC starts with about a .5% disadvantage from wrestling fewer matches.

Coaches Panel Ranking could determine seed order, it's that close.

 

[ccdiver]

I think Cassar gets the #1 seed. I think a 1-point win in March over Steveson trumps a 1-point loss to White in January. Plus, Steveson is of course highly regarded, as he should be, and I think don't think there's any way they seed him 3rd.

 

[Foreverinbluejeans57]

Tom Ryan and Coleman Scott on the coaches ranking committee for 285. No good.

What’s the deal with Coleman?

 

[tomsc]

Ahh, I see now. Thanks. Somewhere along the way I missed that outcome.

Yes, early in the season Steveson beat White 8-1, but the final score was a bit mis-leading. Steveson got a nice TD to the back for an early 6 points. The rest of the match was fairly even.

 

[LemonPie]

What’s the deal with Coleman?

Okie State guy.

 

[liex26]

It's crazy close for sure. The one thing that I don't think AC gets enough credit for, is his wins over the fourth best 285 in the country, Nevills.

Point margin should also matter, regardless of how many moves it was. Cassar's loss was one move, Steveson's loss was one move, neither of them went to their back.