Guys help me find the flaws in my thinking. My spider sense is telling me there is far more to this picture than meets the eye. The consensus now (including Flo and visual confirmation of his 'huge'ness) is Cassar is going Hwt. So the question is why?
1) Shak beat him out - yes, but I don't buy for a second, that last year translates unchallenged over to this year. I was in the camp that Cassar, one more year removed from a 2 year injury Rehab period, would have taken back the starting spot. No way he goes up for this reason alone. (Probability 15%)
2) The cut is too tough - maybe, he is a big dude, but I am not convinced a 230 lb Cassar is good enough to beat out a 2x AA 265 lb healthy Nick Nevills. Who jumps weight classes to reduce his chances at wrestling? (Probability 20%)
3) Nick Nevills is hurt or retiring - sounds more plausible but, by itself (Probability 30%) I think Cassar at 197 challenging Shak is still a much better scenario for him to place on the top 1/2 of the podium. Likewise this move simply preserves Seth's redshirt this year. Seth could have been ready to go, and as a true frosh with a better than even shot to low AA, and if Nick could heal and get a medical, Seth could RS next year as Nick comes back and goes for a final year. Net-net is even with Nick hurt, that alone isn't a compelling reason for Cassar to give up on a shot with destiny at 197.
4) Bo is moving up - I think there is little doubt Bo wins that wrestle off, but I am not convinced the cut was getting too tough for him and he is not one to run from Zahid, he would welcome that challenge if Z bumps. Even if Bo were to move up, Cassar could still serve as an awesome insurance policy in case of a god-forbid injury to Bo, where Shak is cemented to 184. (Probability 20%).
The Lions are a team, these kids love each other. The prospect of Bo bumping two AA capable guys doesn't resonate with me. It would take a combination of balls, arrogance and selfishness to do that in this case - that is not Bo Nickal the teammate.
On balance I am not convinced with any of these theories "alone" is even a 50% probability.
This tells me a combination if events is driving the scenario, and the effect on the team is broader than most are considering at this early date. So what cascading set of dominos is coming in to play here?
A) I think Nick may indeed be hurt. Hurt more seriously than we all believe. If he had a second surgery where the docs say instability prevents a 'full' competitive recovery, maybe he is hanging it up. If so he would have told Cael long ago. I can see where Cael knowing the cut was difficult saw Cassar's going up as the best 'Team' option, plus AC has a full 6 months lead time to pack on good (shirtless adonis calendar) weight as opposed to bad weight.
This still leaves the question of Seth, why not simply burn his shirt? Unfortunately, with Nick retiring, the prospect of Seth second guessing a decision to move back east away from family starts to make a little more sense. His vision of a career at PSU including a redshirt and rolling around on the mat with big bro for a year or more, may have been dashed. Likewise the Kirkvliet rumors now gain some immediate credibility.
B) The Bo/Shak swap may or may not happen but on balance the impact to March is probably a wash (caveate below). Cael opening the door for him to move up, sounds more plausible. I think with another year of competition under Shak's belt (as long as he doesn't have tank issues), he will give MyMar all he can handle with his motor and athleticism. In this sense the swap may make us stronger as a team with a long shot for 2 champs.
C) With what we know today, there are big changes afoot and if I were to assign a probability to the collection of rumors, innuendo and conspiracy theories - Sadly, I see a better than 50/50 chance we never see Nick in a blue and while singlet again. If the Kerkvliet stuff holds true I also think the same goes for Seth. Wow!
What a change from March! With all the moving peices, this is starting rival last year's off season drama.
1) Shak beat him out - yes, but I don't buy for a second, that last year translates unchallenged over to this year. I was in the camp that Cassar, one more year removed from a 2 year injury Rehab period, would have taken back the starting spot. No way he goes up for this reason alone. (Probability 15%)
2) The cut is too tough - maybe, he is a big dude, but I am not convinced a 230 lb Cassar is good enough to beat out a 2x AA 265 lb healthy Nick Nevills. Who jumps weight classes to reduce his chances at wrestling? (Probability 20%)
3) Nick Nevills is hurt or retiring - sounds more plausible but, by itself (Probability 30%) I think Cassar at 197 challenging Shak is still a much better scenario for him to place on the top 1/2 of the podium. Likewise this move simply preserves Seth's redshirt this year. Seth could have been ready to go, and as a true frosh with a better than even shot to low AA, and if Nick could heal and get a medical, Seth could RS next year as Nick comes back and goes for a final year. Net-net is even with Nick hurt, that alone isn't a compelling reason for Cassar to give up on a shot with destiny at 197.
4) Bo is moving up - I think there is little doubt Bo wins that wrestle off, but I am not convinced the cut was getting too tough for him and he is not one to run from Zahid, he would welcome that challenge if Z bumps. Even if Bo were to move up, Cassar could still serve as an awesome insurance policy in case of a god-forbid injury to Bo, where Shak is cemented to 184. (Probability 20%).
The Lions are a team, these kids love each other. The prospect of Bo bumping two AA capable guys doesn't resonate with me. It would take a combination of balls, arrogance and selfishness to do that in this case - that is not Bo Nickal the teammate.
On balance I am not convinced with any of these theories "alone" is even a 50% probability.
This tells me a combination if events is driving the scenario, and the effect on the team is broader than most are considering at this early date. So what cascading set of dominos is coming in to play here?
A) I think Nick may indeed be hurt. Hurt more seriously than we all believe. If he had a second surgery where the docs say instability prevents a 'full' competitive recovery, maybe he is hanging it up. If so he would have told Cael long ago. I can see where Cael knowing the cut was difficult saw Cassar's going up as the best 'Team' option, plus AC has a full 6 months lead time to pack on good (shirtless adonis calendar) weight as opposed to bad weight.
This still leaves the question of Seth, why not simply burn his shirt? Unfortunately, with Nick retiring, the prospect of Seth second guessing a decision to move back east away from family starts to make a little more sense. His vision of a career at PSU including a redshirt and rolling around on the mat with big bro for a year or more, may have been dashed. Likewise the Kirkvliet rumors now gain some immediate credibility.
B) The Bo/Shak swap may or may not happen but on balance the impact to March is probably a wash (caveate below). Cael opening the door for him to move up, sounds more plausible. I think with another year of competition under Shak's belt (as long as he doesn't have tank issues), he will give MyMar all he can handle with his motor and athleticism. In this sense the swap may make us stronger as a team with a long shot for 2 champs.
C) With what we know today, there are big changes afoot and if I were to assign a probability to the collection of rumors, innuendo and conspiracy theories - Sadly, I see a better than 50/50 chance we never see Nick in a blue and while singlet again. If the Kerkvliet stuff holds true I also think the same goes for Seth. Wow!
What a change from March! With all the moving peices, this is starting rival last year's off season drama.
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