Prediction Penn St seeds
- Thread starter Psubiomed
- Start date
Caliendo before the seeds are announced: "please good God in heaven not the 7 seed"
Agree, except Kirk will be #1. Past accomplishments as my reasoning.
If you are Nagao and you get the 10 you might avoid Vito, because there's a decent chance with the two losses he goes behind Orine.
I could see Nagao up a couple, Kasak down a couple and Kerk #1 but the others really look spot on.
I'm hoping Bernie falls to 6 to avoid Parker actually. If Nagao gets the 8 then he gets a Crookham rematch. UNLESS the go intervention with Fix. I prefer a Fix match to a Crookham rematch here. kasak with a 9 still gets a bad draw, but with a 10 he has a shot.
Timely new thread, and beats hand-wringing over Starocci or Hannah Mears.
What are everyone’s best guesses ?
125 Davis #2-#3
133 Nagao #8-#9
141 Bartlett #2
149 Kasak #6-#7
157 Levi #1
165 Mesenbrink #2
174 Starocci #2
(Griffith had to MFF himself)
184 Truax #5-#6
197 AB #1
285 Kerk #1 …
(….. do they jump Bastida to #1?)
What are everyone’s best guesses ?
125 Davis #2-#3
133 Nagao #8-#9
141 Bartlett #2
149 Kasak #6-#7
157 Levi #1
165 Mesenbrink #2
174 Starocci #2
(Griffith had to MFF himself)
184 Truax #5-#6
197 AB #1
285 Kerk #1 …
(….. do they jump Bastida to #1?)
Agree with basically all of them. I have Nagao 10 and Kasak 7 though
Read the first sentence of your post and was ready to 😍 it right then! Continued reading and thought the rest of your post was just as solid. I kinda feel the #10 for Nagao, but as high as 8 doesn’t seem out of the question.
Based on the formula Davis will be very close at 125 with Stanich. They tie H2H and conference placement. Davis has more and stronger QW’s. RPI is Stanich and coaches will most likely be Stanich. They each beat the same common opponents so that’s a split.
H2H 12.5 each
QW 15 Davis, 5 Stanich
Placement 7.5 each
RPI Stanich 10
Coaches Stanich 10
Common opp. 5 each
Win% Davis 10
That’s 50 each. However I’m estimating they split QW’s 15 to 5. They could go 20 to 0 for Davis and that would make him the 1.
Stanich QW’s are Berginc, Ungar, Barnett and Flynn
Davis QW’s are McKee, Barnett, DeAugustino, Peterson, Lujan, and Berginc.
H2H 12.5 each
QW 15 Davis, 5 Stanich
Placement 7.5 each
RPI Stanich 10
Coaches Stanich 10
Common opp. 5 each
Win% Davis 10
That’s 50 each. However I’m estimating they split QW’s 15 to 5. They could go 20 to 0 for Davis and that would make him the 1.
Stanich QW’s are Berginc, Ungar, Barnett and Flynn
Davis QW’s are McKee, Barnett, DeAugustino, Peterson, Lujan, and Berginc.
The shortcut for guessing seeds among a cluster is to start with the Coaches Poll and then adjust within that grouping.
Nagao is 9th in the current coaches poll. He's unlikely to move up in the poll -- nobody above him had a lower finish at their qualifier. He definitely won't drop below the next 3 guys in the poll (Bouzakis, Romney, Calaiocco).
He's 14th in RPI, so that won't help him pass anyone. It might cost him against Romney, but Nagao has a better Win %. Romney also finished 3rd in his qualifier.
--> Nagao is probably the 9 but could be the 10.
Kasak is also 9th in the poll. He will pass 8 Rathjen in the final poll. Perhaps 6 Swiderski who also finished 3rd but got upset at B12s, but this is less likely. But probably nobody else -- the rest above him also had good qualifiers. Like Nagao, he won't get passed from below.
He won't get seeded above 7 Watters, who won B12s.
Note: only his results at 149 count. Thus he is 14-3 = 82.35%, which is below all of the top 10 guys except Gomez and Lamer. Also we can't use WrestleStat's calculated RPI in case it includes his 141 results.
--> Kasak is likely the 8 but could possibly be the 7.
Nagao is 9th in the current coaches poll. He's unlikely to move up in the poll -- nobody above him had a lower finish at their qualifier. He definitely won't drop below the next 3 guys in the poll (Bouzakis, Romney, Calaiocco).
He's 14th in RPI, so that won't help him pass anyone. It might cost him against Romney, but Nagao has a better Win %. Romney also finished 3rd in his qualifier.
--> Nagao is probably the 9 but could be the 10.
Kasak is also 9th in the poll. He will pass 8 Rathjen in the final poll. Perhaps 6 Swiderski who also finished 3rd but got upset at B12s, but this is less likely. But probably nobody else -- the rest above him also had good qualifiers. Like Nagao, he won't get passed from below.
He won't get seeded above 7 Watters, who won B12s.
Note: only his results at 149 count. Thus he is 14-3 = 82.35%, which is below all of the top 10 guys except Gomez and Lamer. Also we can't use WrestleStat's calculated RPI in case it includes his 141 results.
--> Kasak is likely the 8 but could possibly be the 7.
That means Kasak would get Parco or Lovett in the quarters assuming they are 1 and 2, which they should be.
I hope it's Lovett. It will be their third match and maybe Kasak has learned enough to beat him.
Davis shouuld be #1 he was ranked #5 before Big 10 and the Tournament had #1, #2 and #4 how would he not be #1? https://news.theopenmat.com/rankings/ncaa_d1/125 This one had him rankked Lower but he won a tournament with #1 #2 and afew nor in the top 10 https://intermatwrestle.com/rankings.html/ncaa-di-r25/ Wrestlstat has Big 10 Athletes 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 he is ranked lower in this one but he won a Tournament with the to 4
How does ne not get ranked #1
How does ne not get ranked #1
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He won't be ranked #1 because he Stanich was ranked #3 and also won his tournament, and Davis only beat one of the guys ahead of him (#4).
He might have an argument if he had beaten 1 or 2. But you don't get to pass someone because of the guys you didn't face.
There's a chance he gets seeded #1, but that's a different question.
So, it's just who you face, not who is in your tournament? BIG 125 did have 1,2 and 4 in coaches rank and Davis came out on top. He only faced 4 though.
Nothing else would make sense, right?
I mean, the 174 field at B1G had Starocci, Griffith, and Kennedy, yet Edmund Ruth came out on top.
By the "who's in your tournament" logic, every B10 champ should be the 1 seed at nationals, except at 165 because of who was in the B12 tournament.
Davis shouldn't get credit for Ramos and Ayala losing to #22 and #16 in the quarters. Especially because it's 125, where the rankings get completely upended every 2-3 weeks anyway.
I’ve got
Davis: 2
Nagao: 9
Bartlett: 2
Kasak: 8/9
Haines: 1
Messenbrink: 2
Starocci: 2
Truax: 5
AB: 1
Kerk: 1
Davis: 1
Nagao: 9
Bartlett: 3
Kasak: 11
Haines: 1
Messenbrink: 2
Starocci: 3
Truax: 6
AB: 1
Kerk: 1
Nagao: 9
Bartlett: 3
Kasak: 11
Haines: 1
Messenbrink: 2
Starocci: 3
Truax: 6
AB: 1
Kerk: 1
Seeds at left and highest you might face round 1 through semi’s
1 - 32, 16, 8, 4
2 - 31, 15, 7, 3
3 - 30, 14, 6, 2
4 - 29, 13, 5, 1
5 - 28, 12, 4, 1
6 - 27, 11, 3, 2
7 - 26, 10, 2, 3
8 - 25, 9, 1, 4
9 - 24, 8, 1, 4
10 - 23, 7, 2, 3
11 - 22, 6, 3, 2
12 - 21, 5, 4, 1
13 - 20, 4, 5, 1
14 - 19, 3, 6, 2
15 - 18, 2, 7, 3
16 - 17, 1, 8, 4
17 - 16, 1, 8, 4
18 - 15, 2, 7, 3
19 - 14, 3, 6, 2
20 - 13, 4, 5, 1
21 - 12, 5, 4, 1
22 - 11, 6, 3, 2
23 - 10, 7, 2, 3
24 - 9, 8, 1, 4
25 - 8, 9, 1, 4
26 - 7, 10, 2, 3
27 - 6, 11, 3, 2
28 - 5, 12, 4, 1
29 - 4, 13, 5, 1
30 - 3, 14, 6, 2
31 - 2, 15, 7, 3
32 - 1, 16, 8, 4
1 - 32, 16, 8, 4
2 - 31, 15, 7, 3
3 - 30, 14, 6, 2
4 - 29, 13, 5, 1
5 - 28, 12, 4, 1
6 - 27, 11, 3, 2
7 - 26, 10, 2, 3
8 - 25, 9, 1, 4
9 - 24, 8, 1, 4
10 - 23, 7, 2, 3
11 - 22, 6, 3, 2
12 - 21, 5, 4, 1
13 - 20, 4, 5, 1
14 - 19, 3, 6, 2
15 - 18, 2, 7, 3
16 - 17, 1, 8, 4
17 - 16, 1, 8, 4
18 - 15, 2, 7, 3
19 - 14, 3, 6, 2
20 - 13, 4, 5, 1
21 - 12, 5, 4, 1
22 - 11, 6, 3, 2
23 - 10, 7, 2, 3
24 - 9, 8, 1, 4
25 - 8, 9, 1, 4
26 - 7, 10, 2, 3
27 - 6, 11, 3, 2
28 - 5, 12, 4, 1
29 - 4, 13, 5, 1
30 - 3, 14, 6, 2
31 - 2, 15, 7, 3
32 - 1, 16, 8, 4
Can’t see BB falling to 3. Not sure who else you could possibly put him behind other than Mendez.
Ya, I running the head to head with Ryan Jack and Bartlett has a slight edge
H2H even. 12.5 each
QW’s. Bartlett has 8 for 31 tier points and Jack has 5 for 18.5. Guessing a 15/5 split to Bartlett
Placement. Jack 15
RPI Bartlett 10
Coaches. Probably won’t happen but give Jack 10
Common. Jack 0-2 vs Mendez. Bartlett 1-1. Bartlett 10
Win%. Bartlett 10
57.5 to 42.5 even if Jack gets a higher coaches ranking.
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