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Playoffs...Not all hope is lost

jmorovich said:
From Land of 10...

Projecting Penn State's College Football Playoff ranking — all not lost in Happy Valley - Land of 10
https://apple.news/AJk3Kja7BNVmGAdTmjf8JAA
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Makes some other games worth tuning into that's for sure. We need a lot of help though. Unlike Clemson who had a conference loss to Pitt, Ohio State and Penn State were essentially playing to see who goes to the B1G Championship Game. Clemson's loss to Pitt was a setback, but by that point they had beaten all teams who could have stopped them from going to the ACC Championship Game (FSU, Louisville, NC State). Would be the same if we lost to Indiana, but beat OSU and Michigan.
 
PSU87 said:
Yeah, but depressing. Can someone explain why Washington's chances are so much higher than ours?
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Dunno - but they're the highest ranked team in the Pac 12 and (arguably) are the favorite to win it. We have Wisconsin and OSU ahead of us.
 
Scarlet.Buckeye said:
Here's where you can interact and calculate the odds:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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The best (and easiest) potential path for PSU when playing around with this site is to have both PSU and Michigan win out (which gives OSU 2 losses and Wisky 1). Two things to note from this - 1 it gives PSU the highest percentage to make the playoffs in the Big Ten. And 2 - it gives PSU 3rd highest percentage overall to make the playoffs (all other things equal). There are so many other games to be played that can impact things good or bad, but for me this creates the simplest rooting guide for now.

The bottom line is this...talking heads can spin all these 1 loss teams against each other as much as they want. But for PSU, their odds live and die with OSU losing 1 more and Wisconsin losing 2 (1 coming in the Big Ten Championship). The other interesting thing to note is that OSU losing twice could actually hurt PSU if they then go to championship and then lose to Wisconsin. To me that scenario is one of the few that would keep the Big Ten out of the CFP because PSU and OSU would have 2 losses and Wisconsin could be kept out with 1.
 
PennStJeff said:
The best (and easiest) potential path for PSU when playing around with this site is to have both PSU and Michigan win out (which gives OSU 2 losses and Wisky 1). Two things to note from this - 1 it gives PSU the highest percentage to make the playoffs in the Big Ten. And 2 - it gives PSU 3rd highest percentage overall to make the playoffs (all other things equal). There are so many other games to be played that can impact things good or bad, but for me this creates the simplest rooting guide for now.

The bottom line is this...talking heads can spin all these 1 loss teams against each other as much as they want. But for PSU, their odds live and die with OSU losing 1 more and Wisconsin losing 2 (1 coming in the Big Ten Championship). The other interesting thing to note is that OSU losing twice could actually hurt PSU if they then go to championship and then lose to Wisconsin. To me that scenario is one of the few that would keep the Big Ten out of the CFP because PSU and OSU would have 2 losses and Wisconsin could be kept out with 1.
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Okay, I'm sold - where can I get some Michigan stuff?

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Midnighter said:
Okay, I'm sold - where can I get some Michigan stuff?
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You could also note OSU losing this week would serve nearly the same purpose. But I just find that less likely than Michigan unfortunately. But by all means wear an Iowa jersey first this week before committing to that ugly maize and blue.
 
Midnighter said:
Also trying to apply scientific analysis to a non-scientific process.
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Exactly, too many variables that do not follow trends etc. And they have positively no idea what the CFP committee values etc. Win the next 4 and we have just as good an argument as any 1-loss team...it's really that simple. One can bend statistics to fit any argument.
 
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I put a bunch of "improbables" into the 538 thing and after the third one it said something to the effect of "nope, this is outside our realm of probability" and wouldn't calculate anything further. While I agree it's highly improbable for Ohio State, Clemson, ND, and maybe one other I can't remember to all pull upsets this weekend...well, it could happen.
 
One thing that I want to see is clarity in regards to our loss. I know that we need help, but we lost by 1 point, on the road, against the #6 team (at the time). I assume OSU will be in the top 4 tonight, so I am curious as to how they are going to weight this loss. Clemson got beat by Cuse @ Cuse 27-24, Oklahoma lost to (unranked at the time) ISU @ home 38-31, TCU lost to #25 ISU @ ISU 14-7, ND lost to (#15 at the time) UGA @ ND 20-19, and PSU lost to #6 OSU @ OSU 39-38.

I cannot wait to hear Kirby maneuver his way through his explanations
 
Midnighter said:
Makes some other games worth tuning into that's for sure. We need a lot of help though. Unlike Clemson who had a conference loss to Pitt, Ohio State and Penn State were essentially playing to see who goes to the B1G Championship Game. Clemson's loss to Pitt was a setback, but by that point they had beaten all teams who could have stopped them from going to the ACC Championship Game (FSU, Louisville, NC State). Would be the same if we lost to Indiana, but beat OSU and Michigan.
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Very good points, but OSU and Washington proved last year all that really matters is the number of losses. PSU wins out, they are likely in. That one loss (on the road, top 3 team by one point) is as good as it gets when comparing to another one loss team.
 
nittnee said:
Very good points, but OSU and Washington proved last year all that really matters is the number of losses. PSU wins out, they are likely in. That one loss (on the road, top 3 team by one point) is as good as it gets when comparing to another one loss team.
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The precedent has been set for 1 or fewer losses but there is no precedent for more than 1 conference representative at this time. I honestly think the committee's selection process isn't as difficult as everyone makes it out to be. It's about number of losses first (1 or fewer) and then maxing out conference representation. Where it gets more difficult is when you have multiple conference reps with 1 loss but not enough spots. IMO there is no way that a 2nd conference team with 1 loss is going to get in if there are other power 5 conference teams out there remaining with 1 or fewer losses, period. You can argue the quality of the loss until you are blue in the face, but first tiebreaker will always be the unrepresented conference wins every time.

This is why OSU losing again is the highest odds approach for PSU to get in. If you want to get them in as a 2nd Big Ten team (where there is no current precedent), that means there cannot be any other Power 5 conference team + ND with 1 loss or less that is not represented. And then even if all that falls into place, assuming UGA and Bama are both undefeated in the end, I don't see it likely that PSU is selected above the SEC championship game loser.

Maybe I am wrong and that is not the process. But I am sticking with it. If we win out and OSU loses 1 more, we should be in.
 
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Two points:

1) Wisconsin will be behind us with 1 loss. We do not need them to lose 2. OSU losing one and beating them in the championship game does it. OSU losing 2 and us beating them in the championship game does it. But they only need 1 loss (Miami is likely in this boat as well).

2) It doesn't matter what a team was ranked when played. It matters what they are currently ranked. Who is tougher team, Notre Dame or Florida St? Florida St was ranked #2 preseason, Notre Dame wasn't ranked I don't believe.
 
itsofficial101 said:
Two points:

1) Wisconsin will be behind us with 1 loss. We do not need them to lose 2. OSU losing one and beating them in the championship game does it. OSU losing 2 and us beating them in the championship game does it. But they only need 1 loss (Miami is likely in this boat as well).

2) It doesn't matter what a team was ranked when played. It matters what they are currently ranked. Who is tougher team, Notre Dame or Florida St? Florida St was ranked #2 preseason, Notre Dame wasn't ranked I don't believe.
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Here is where I have concern with point 1. If Wisconsin has 1 loss going into the championship game and knocks off OSU, then I don't see how we get in over Wisconsin. They would have beaten OSU for the signature win where PSU lost and they would have also beaten Michigan, on par with probably our best signature win. At that point, Wisconsin's resume along with being the conference champ, is likely better than ours. We really need both to lose 2 at some point.

Although I agree if Wisconsin's first loss is to OSU and OSU already lost their 2nd game prior, then we should win that tiebreaker of 1 loss teams at that point.
 
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PennStJeff said:
Here is where I have concern with point 1. If Wisconsin has 1 loss going into the championship game and knocks off OSU, then I don't see how we get in over Wisconsin. They would have beaten OSU for the signature win where PSU lost and they would have also beaten Michigan, on par with probably our best signature win. At that point, Wisconsin's resume along with being the conference champ, is likely better than ours. We really need both to lose 2 at some point.
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I will simply disagree. You can't just get a free pass to the conference championship and get in on one win. If we do that, put an undefeated UCF in instead. Their schedule is fairly comparable.
 
PennStJeff said:
Here is where I have concern with point 1. If Wisconsin has 1 loss going into the championship game and knocks off OSU, then I don't see how we get in over Wisconsin. They would have beaten OSU for the signature win where PSU lost and they would have also beaten Michigan, on par with probably our best signature win. At that point, Wisconsin's resume along with being the conference champ, is likely better than ours. We really need both to lose 2 at some point.

Although I agree if Wisconsin's first loss is to OSU and OSU already lost their 2nd game prior, then we should win that tiebreaker of 1 loss teams at that point.
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All scenarios except the most remote assume Wis loses in champ game.
 
itsofficial101 said:
I will simply disagree. You can't just get a free pass to the conference championship and get in on one win. If we do that, put an undefeated UCF in instead. Their schedule is fairly comparable.
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I don't really understand this belief that our schedule is so much harder than Wisconsin's by year end. So right now according to Sagarin, PSU strength of schedule is ranked 24 and Wisconsin is 69. OK fair enough. However, the remaining 4 games we are ranked 67 and Wisconsin is ranked 11. They are going to close most of that gap by the end of the season. Couple that with a better signature win against OSU at the end of the season? I think you will need to have some deep prayers working overtime to get in over Wisconsin at that point. But hey, if it does come down to that, I do hope you are right.
 
Pinkhippo PeanutButter said:
All scenarios except the most remote assume Wis loses in champ game.
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Well 538 gives Wisconsin a 33% chance to win the conference, which essentially means 33% chance to beat OSU since they pretty much have the West wrapped up. FPI lists their chances at winning the conference at 23.4% So while I wouldn't call 23.4% or 33% likely, I certainly wouldn't call it "remote" either.
 
nittnee said:
Very good points, but OSU and Washington proved last year all that really matters is the number of losses. PSU wins out, they are likely in. That one loss (on the road, top 3 team by one point) is as good as it gets when comparing to another one loss team.
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Not if a 12-1 Alabama is available with Alabama's 1 loss to Gergia in the SEC championship. Then Bama goes over any 1 loss non conference champion.
 
jimjim47 said:
Not if a 12-1 Alabama is available with Alabama's 1 loss to Gergia in the SEC championship. Then Bama goes over any 1 loss non conference champion.
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Not necessarily.... if they would lose to Georgia they would have weaker resume than just about every team. No wins over anyone ranked At season end
 
Limestone_Lion said:
One thing that I want to see is clarity in regards to our loss. I know that we need help, but we lost by 1 point, on the road, against the #6 team (at the time). I assume OSU will be in the top 4 tonight, so I am curious as to how they are going to weight this loss. Clemson got beat by Cuse @ Cuse 27-24, Oklahoma lost to (unranked at the time) ISU @ home 38-31, TCU lost to #25 ISU @ ISU 14-7, ND lost to (#15 at the time) UGA @ ND 20-19, and PSU lost to #6 OSU @ OSU 39-38.

I cannot wait to hear Kirby maneuver his way through his explanations
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Good point, but I'd be surprised if you got clarity. The (negative) value of the loss will be obfuscated by the value of the wins/strength of schedule. Would be nice, though, to see an attempt at communicating the "analysis" in numerical terms even though the values are arbitrary.
 
PSUcup1 said:
Not necessarily.... if they would lose to Georgia they would have weaker resume than just about every team. No wins over anyone ranked At season end
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Resume will NOT matter, it is ALABAMA (I hate to say this) but human bias will take over. Just watch.
 
PennStJeff said:
Well 538 gives Wisconsin a 33% chance to win the conference, which essentially means 33% chance to beat OSU since they pretty much have the West wrapped up. FPI lists their chances at winning the conference at 23.4% So while I wouldn't call 23.4% or 33% likely, I certainly wouldn't call it "remote" either.
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I meant all scenarios that end with PSU in the playoff. Almost all involve Wis losing in B1G champ game.
 
MilesBarkley said:
Team A: 1 loss by 1 point on the road to #2 ranked team in power rankings
Team B: 1 loss by 3 points on the road to #44 ranked team in power rankings

Which team would you rank higher?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=228&year=2017
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Very good point. But Team B has two wins over Top 15 opponents as well (at the time they played).

There isn't a really good way to do this unfortunately. And, I heard folks talking about 'loss due to injuries' now being a thing Clemson and Oklahoma State can use as a defense against bad losses...
 
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Midnighter said:
Very good point. But Team B has two wins over Top 15 opponents as well (at the time they played).

There isn't a really good way to do this unfortunately. And, I heard folks talking about 'loss due to injuries' now being a thing Clemson and Oklahoma State can use as a defense against bad losses...
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I guess Alabama has a win then over a top 3 ranked team in Florida State too from week one. Obviously Florida State turned out to be a flop this season.

I don't think it matters where someone is ranked at the time you play, but rather where they are ranked at the current state.
 
MilesBarkley said:
I guess Alabama has a win then over a top 3 ranked team in Florida State too from week one. Obviously Florida State turned out to be a flop this season.

I don't think it matters where someone is ranked at the time you play, but rather where they are ranked at the current state.
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I don't disagree - I am just repeating what every talking head said this morning about Clemson.
 
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