It is the other metrics that are less trustworthy.
Lots of ways to manipulate cases and hospitalizations.
Much harder to manipulate deaths.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Lots of ways to manipulate cases and hospitalizations.
Much harder to manipulate deaths.
I find it funny that the judgmental, fear-mongering loons seem to have disappeared from this thread. The CDC has done a slow 180, Joe, Kamala, and Nancy aren’t wearing masks (for God’s sake put it back on so we don’t have to see that nightmare-inducing maniacal face), all is good.
SCIENCE!
SCIENCE!
Did any of you see the new Covid Plan?
They are really going to push vaccines for under 5, it says as much.
The fact they actually posted that you were 41x more likely to die of covid unvaccinated tells you they aren't giving up yet.
www.whitehouse.gov
They are really going to push vaccines for under 5, it says as much.
The fact they actually posted that you were 41x more likely to die of covid unvaccinated tells you they aren't giving up yet.
National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan | The White House
Today, the U.S. government is releasing the National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan – which will enable America to move forward safely, sustaining and building on the progress we’ve made over the past 13 months. This plan lays out the roadmap to help us fight COVID-19 in the future as we begin to...
Did any of you see the new Covid Plan?
They are really going to push vaccines for under 5, it says as much.
The fact they actually posted that you were 41x more likely to die of covid unvaccinated tells you they aren't giving up yet.
National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan | The White House
Today, the U.S. government is releasing the National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan – which will enable America to move forward safely, sustaining and building on the progress we’ve made over the past 13 months. This plan lays out the roadmap to help us fight COVID-19 in the future as we begin to...
We basically have to get through the next 3 months without another variant coming through and ballooning numbers again. If we can do that and get into the summer, then I think so many people will have forgotten about covid and then the mid terms start to come, etc...that even the Dems are not going to make Covid an issue. so wont' matter what the CDC says at that point in time once most people get it out of their mind.
Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine converts to DNA inside human liver cells, new study
The Swedish study suggests the vaccine is capable of becoming DNA, which is what the CDC claimed would not happen.
justthenews.com
here come the Attorneys
rumble.com
"I Wanna Know Who's Going to Jail for Murder First" | Pfizer Data Shows Mortality Rate of 3%
Information via Attorney Thomas Renz. The data Pfizer was forced to release showed a 3% mortality rate for the vaccines, which is 12 times the COVID death rate.
rumble.com
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so around 150 million in the USA alone got mRNA shots, so that would mean nearly 5 MILLION people would have died. I am 100% sure that if 5 million people died we would know about it.
‘Huge, huge numbers:’ insurance group sees death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels
Since Feb. 1, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate there have been 942,431 excess deaths in the U.S.
thehill.com
“Death rates are up 40 percent over what they were pre-pandemic,” said CEO of OneAmerica's group life policy holders.
To illustrate just how severe the current death rate is, Davison said a 1 in 200-year catastrophe would likely only cause a 10 percent increase over pre-pandemic deaths.
that says the excess deaths in 2020 were ESTIMATED at 942,431. There were 400,000+ covid deaths during that timeframe. The article states the other deaths (which would be 500,000 or so above normal) they attribute to potentially tangential covid issues where covid may have caused other health issues after the person recovered. We also know that due to the shutdowns that many medical issues were not handled in time or fast enough such that excess deaths occurred due to that. And the article you linked makes a lot of sense that I don't think many people would argue (more people died than normal last year due to issues not directly related to a covid positive test that were counted as a covid death). So not sure how that article is saying anything like that tweet (which has since been removed) that implied 5 MILLION people died of the vaccine which is obviously a lie.“Huge, huge numbers”: insurance group sees death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels‘Huge, huge numbers:’ insurance group sees death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels
Since Feb. 1, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate there have been 942,431 excess deaths in the U.S.
“Death rates are up 40 percent over what they were pre-pandemic,” said CEO of OneAmerica's group life policy holders.
To illustrate just how severe the current death rate is, Davison said a 1 in 200-year catastrophe would likely only cause a 10 percent increase over pre-pandemic deaths.
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“Huge, huge numbers”: insurance group sees death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels‘Huge, huge numbers:’ insurance group sees death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels
Since Feb. 1, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate there have been 942,431 excess deaths in the U.S.
“Death rates are up 40 percent over what they were pre-pandemic,” said CEO of OneAmerica's group life policy holders.
To illustrate just how severe the current death rate is, Davison said a 1 in 200-year catastrophe would likely only cause a 10 percent increase over pre-pandemic deaths.
Why do you bozos keep posting this story as if it proves something other than covid has caused a massive increase in death?
Because it came from more than one life insurance company. That inflated rate has hit the industry and it’s astonishing over the past year. If you think it’s only due to COVID, then I’ve got some swamp land I’d like to sell you in south Louisiana.
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I haven't posted this for a long, long time. But it's useful to see that the Covid deaths recorded as Covid ARE real, and aren't some miscoding of other deaths.
As I always advise: Can't look at the last few weeks of data as the data is lagging.
Orange is the expected death count - until Covid, it matched blue (the actual deaths regardless of cause).
As I always advise: Can't look at the last few weeks of data as the data is lagging.
Orange is the expected death count - until Covid, it matched blue (the actual deaths regardless of cause).
I've observed the the thread for quite some time but never posted. Having taught physics and been a laboratory program director at one of the most highly regarded institutions in the country, I'm impressed by many of your observations and the science behind it. An obvious one is "unmasking" the particle size problem of cloth masks against an aerosolized virus spread.I haven't posted this for a long, long time. But it's useful to see that the Covid deaths recorded as Covid ARE real, and aren't some miscoding of other deaths.
As I always advise: Can't look at the last few weeks of data as the data is lagging.
Orange is the expected death count - until Covid, it matched blue (the actual deaths regardless of cause).
However, the intention of this post is to correct a conclusion drawn from the data in the post above. The data is excellent but concluding that the delta in expected verses actual all cause deaths is isolated to COVID is not valid. Many variables changed due to COVID public response and none of those variables can be isolated in your data. Politicians turned much of society upside down and affected so many aspects of life. I would strongly suggest that much of the delta is due to the COVID-only focus of our healthcare systems at the expense of all other causes of death including the statistically largest causes like heart issues and cancer.
I haven't been to the doctor since 2 weeks to flatten the curve. I am among many tens of millions or even a hundred million in that regard. Heart disease and cancer are not getting diagnosed for a significant percentage of the country, let alone treated for over 2 years now. The fallout of that is hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths that were preventable. I have lost friends this way. Heart disease symptoms were ignored because they did not seek medical care or did too late after having been ignored due to COVID-centric healthcare blinders.
My own mother was forced into a COVID room at a hospital with a double pneumonia complication from cancer treatment after a negative test until they produced another negative test 2 days later. If she had passed in her weakened state in isolation, you can be certain the hospital would have mis-coded it COVID. These aren't isolated instances. It was the new normal and it created hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths for political purposes. Hospitals were strongly incentivized to code deaths as COVID. People were paid by the government to go along with that when loved ones were lost. I'm not even going to get into the damage that was done to kids which has cost lives and whose toll will be paid for decades.
Again, I think you are very much on target with many of your observations which are consistent with the science that our institutions may still deny. However, you cannot conclude that excess deaths were in fact isolated to COVID as COVID political response had tentacles into many variables. One variable simply cannot be isolated in the all cause data. The delta is as calculated but due to the aggregate of all variables that were changed.
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In general I would agree with everything you have said on the subject but my good friend who is a Dr of Immunology at NIH and has been right about everything you and most of us have said so far, (thats why Fauci kicked him off of his Covid staff over a year ago) said that if you look at individual ailments such as the flu, heart disease, respiratory ailments, etc and their death rates over the last 2 years, all of them are significantly under their yearly averages. Flu deaths have been less than half of normal since 2019, so if we are to adjust those deaths to account for their individual national average each year as well as a few other causes of deaths, you will see that while covid is an actual cause of death that needs to be classified, the amount of ACTUAL covid deaths are at least 30% over-represented.I haven't posted this for a long, long time. But it's useful to see that the Covid deaths recorded as Covid ARE real, and aren't some miscoding of other deaths.
As I always advise: Can't look at the last few weeks of data as the data is lagging.
Orange is the expected death count - until Covid, it matched blue (the actual deaths regardless of cause).
His group's estimation based on individual death cause rates compared to 2018 and 2019 years is that 40+% of 'covid deaths' since 2020 are not actually caused by covid but rather 'with covid'
Let us take your theory that "the extra deaths are actually impacts FROM the pandemic response, rather than from Covid itself".
What would we see in that case? We would see a gentle change in heart attacks. We would see that each month, heart attacks USED to be 5,800 per week, but now are 6,300 per week. And we'd see that suicides were steadily increased from 1,000 per week to 1280 per week.
What we would NOT see is a spike that coincided exactly with when Covid was surging. I made up a new graph to illustrate how the deaths would change if they were MOSTLY due to the reaction to the pandemic, rather than from the illness itself. They'd look more like the grey line - and not in line with reported Covid deaths (shown in the next graph below).
See how total death peaks coincide with Covid peaks?
I've observed the the thread for quite some time but never posted. Having taught physics and been a laboratory program director at one of the most highly regarded institutions in the country, I'm impressed by many of your observations and the science behind it. An obvious one is "unmasking" the particle size problem of cloth masks against an aerosolized virus spread.I haven't posted this for a long, long time. But it's useful to see that the Covid deaths recorded as Covid ARE real, and aren't some miscoding of other deaths.
As I always advise: Can't look at the last few weeks of data as the data is lagging.
Orange is the expected death count - until Covid, it matched blue (the actual deaths regardless of cause).
However, the intention of this post is to correct a conclusion drawn from the data in the post above. The data is excellent but concluding that the delta in expected verses actual all deaths is isolated to COVID is not valid. Many variables changed due to COVID public response and none of those variables can be isolated in your data. Politicians turned much of society upside down and effected so many aspects of life. I would strongly suggest that much of the Delta is due to COVID-only focus of our healthcare systems at the expense of all other causes of death including the statistically largest causes like heart issues and cancer.
I haven't been to the doctor since 2 weeks to flatten the curve. I am among many tens of millions or even a hundred million in that regard. Heart disease and cancer is not getting diagnosed for a significant percentage of the country let alone treated for over 2 years now. The fallout of that is hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths that were preventable. I have lost friends this way. Heart disease symptoms were ignored because they did not seek medical care or did too late after having been ignored due to COVID-centric healthcare blinders. My own mother was forced into a COVID room at a hospital with a double pneumonia complication from cancer treatment after a negative test until they produced another negative test 2 days later. If she had passed in her weakened state in isolation, you can be certain the hospital would have mis-coded it COVID. These aren't isolated instances. It was the new normal and it created hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths for political purposes. I'm not even going to get into the damage that was done to kids which has cost lives and whose toll will be paid for decade's.
Again, I think you are very much on target with many of your observations which are consistent with the science that our institutions may still deny. However, you cannot conclude that excess deaths were in fact isolated to COVID as COVID political response had tentacles into many variables. One variable simply cannot be isolated in the all cause data. The Delta is as calculated but due to the aggregate of variables that were changed.
Absolutely there are spikes in the real total deaths data and they loosely correlate to covid spikes for some periods. However, less pronounced spikes in total deaths also occurred in Jan 2018, Jan 2017, and Jan 2015 when Covid did not exist. Why?Let us take your theory that "the extra deaths are actually impacts FROM the pandemic response, rather than from Covid itself".
What would we see in that case? We would see a gentle change in heart attacks. We would see that each month, heart attacks USED to be 5,800 per week, but now are 6,300 per week. And we'd see that suicides were steadily increased from 1,000 per week to 1280 per week.
What we would NOT see is a spike that coincided exactly with when Covid was surging. I made up a new graph to illustrate how the deaths would change if they were MOSTLY due to the reaction to the pandemic, rather than from the illness itself. They'd look more like the grey line - and not in line with reported Covid deaths (shown in the next graph below).
See how total death peaks coincide with Covid peaks?
Because deaths spike in the winter. The non-covid death MODEL shown on the graph is just that, a smoothed out, fitted model. Real data suggests that there are spikes in deaths during winter and those most vulnerable die then and not in a perfectly matched sinusoidal peak but rather as a function of the number of vulnerable persons and other factors related to winter time perhaps varying by severity of those winter factors and how many vulnerable people are available leading into this time of year.
The spikes in all cause total deaths do have some correlation to Covid spikes to be clear. But all cause deaths exceed the predicted from the model even when there isn't a covid spike for all times since Mar 2020. There have been a greater number of vulnerable Americans since that date. There are time periods such as Jun through Aug 2020 where the total deaths has a small maxima and the covid reaction curve is at a minima. The same divergence of those curves appears exactly a year later. If Covid alone is causing the spikes, then why are the two curves inversely correlated once a year at this time?
I am suggesting that clear (and seemingly with predictable periodicity) divergence of the covid and the total deaths every year suggests that another variable is dominant at this divergence. I would further suggest that the covid-era maxima for all cause deaths twice a year correlate to factors impacting those most vulnerable and maybe also being forced inside with masks.
Lastly, if you believe there is strong correlation between total deaths and covid reaction deaths, what is the R^2 value or calculate the variance for the covid-era period? You have the data, prove it to yourself.
Yeah, but I've got to go grab the Covid deaths data. I do have existing "All Deaths" data.
And I agree, we should fit proposed physical models (meaning variables to explain "All Deaths") to the data, and see what residuals are left.
That's how you really do this stuff.
Can I get paid for this somehow?
Hahahahahaha.
Let's look again at how closely Covid deaths matched actual increases in Total Deaths.
It matches almost exactly. The Covid deaths ARE from Covid.
Only a few of the extra deaths are from other pandemic related issues.
Very hard to see it any other way.
It matches almost exactly. The Covid deaths ARE from Covid.
Only a few of the extra deaths are from other pandemic related issues.
Very hard to see it any other way.
Let's look again at how closely Covid deaths matched actual increases in Total Deaths.
It matches almost exactly. The Covid deaths ARE from Covid.
Only a few of the extra deaths are from other pandemic related issues.
Very hard to see it any other way.
We've been on the same page on this, excess death numbers tell the whole truth. The truth is if you really, truly, factually die with covid and not because of covid, that death would not show up as an excess death.
Compared to the one million deaths, there has been a statistically insignificant increase in suicides and overdoses. There have been increases in deaths due to avoidance of medical care, but most of those numbers wouldn't really show up immediately, they'll take more time to show up.
Current excess death numbers are just over a million while covid deaths are slightly under a million, so the numbers are accounting for these small non-covid (but still covid related) increases in death.
It was theoretically possible that some of the Covid deaths were deaths that would not have normally occurred, but NOT because of Covid, but because of the reaction to Covid. That was the theory of @Online Persona. It was not an unreasonable theory.
Obviously, no one is more eager to blame such stuff on Fauci and minions than I am. My contempt for them is boundless.
But the evidence suggests that if the masking, hospital restrictions, job losses, etc. contributed to the overall death count, those numbers are quite small.
It's just one person's opinion that's not based on any new, meaningful, or significant facts. The only significant and meaningful facts are the number of covid deaths and the number of excess deaths. If there is a case to be made, then BOTH numbers need to be proven completely wrong. Those that are intent on making that case have had plenty of time to do so and are pretty much just making political noise now.
Well, I don’t know if I’d say it’s been so well disproven until now.
But it just cannot be said to be reasonable any longer.
So the mayor of NYC is forcing 2-5 year olds to wear masks? What science is that about? Just truly insane.
Every measurement has uncertainty. Deaths mis-coded as covid are systematic measurement error. Every death mis-coded as covid will show as both a covid death and a total death. You cannot tease it out of the data to determine the total number of mis-coded covid deaths with the data sets that you are using. Therefore one cannot conclude anything about mis-coded deaths large or small from these data sets.
According to the cdc, 94% of the time a covid death is reported it is with comorbidities and the average number of comorbidities is 2.9. Nearly all covid deaths therefore present multiple opportunities for systematic measurement error by miscoding. So you need to analyze the measurement methodologies. When this is examined, you see that those who participate in this measurement to code a death as covid have been incentivized tens of thousands of dollars per covid coding and families have been incentivized $10k to not fight the coding of the death in the period of their grieving. No scientist worth their salt would not conclude that this methodology would not produce very significant systematic measurement error.
Further, that systematic measurement error would produce exactly 1 additional covid death for every 1 additional total death mis-coded as covid. You will not be able to decouple this within your data sets nor make any quantitative conclusion with any confidence as to what percentage were mis-coded covid from your data sets (which we know from analysis of measurement methods is intentionally fraught with systematic error).
He’s a sadistic mf’er who wants kids to suffer.
We will have a better idea at the end of 2022 barring another surge. If (I know this sounds bad) people are dying 6 to 12 months early then those deaths won't be happening this year since they already happened and we should see deaths below what they were expected.
My no research thought for the day:
We are going to see an uptick, could be substantial, when mask mandates are cancelled in states that have had the strongest mask mandates.
Why?
It is simple, these people have been covered up for 2 years and have not allowed their bodies to continue to work and fight off germs naturally.
Had a friend fly in to Texas last Thursday. He is a school teacher in PA and has basically been in a mask for the last 2 years of his life. We didn't really do anything "big crowd" on Thursday or Friday......he got sick on Saturday and tested positive via a CVS home test. Nobody else in our house has a sniffle.
So basically, what I am saying is this.....be careful of upticks in these states and those upticks cause you to go back under some kind of policy.
We are going to see an uptick, could be substantial, when mask mandates are cancelled in states that have had the strongest mask mandates.
Why?
It is simple, these people have been covered up for 2 years and have not allowed their bodies to continue to work and fight off germs naturally.
Had a friend fly in to Texas last Thursday. He is a school teacher in PA and has basically been in a mask for the last 2 years of his life. We didn't really do anything "big crowd" on Thursday or Friday......he got sick on Saturday and tested positive via a CVS home test. Nobody else in our house has a sniffle.
So basically, what I am saying is this.....be careful of upticks in these states and those upticks cause you to go back under some kind of policy.
It is true that much of the dry tinder has been expended but we are creating much more by not having the normal health care screenings and many symptoms are going undiagnosed for longer due to the covid-only health responses.
How that plays out may vary over time. Perhaps expended dry tinder wins for awhile until the newly created undiagnosed tinder eventually overtakes it? Either way, upending society and stopping significant early diagnosis will likely kill more than even the total covid count with all of the mis-coded covid deaths currently.
Perhaps those coming out of isolation shells may cause an uptick but I believe the mass masking served to only adhere bacteria and other viruses to our faces for prolonged periods. After required to mask, most people threw it on their dashboard and repeated this for months at a time without washing. I'm thinking their exposures to germs were much higher than pre-masking.
We elect stupid people, we get authoritarianism.
The people of NYC deserve to wear masks for the next 20 years.
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But if the deaths are miscoded, then we'd see no change in total deaths. Or at least, if we saw a change, it wouldn't be so "spikey" and perfectly correlated with spikes in cases, hospitalizations, and Covid deaths.
The most probable explanation for all the data is: Covid killed just about as many people as we were told.
If you look at the stats, there is virtually no difference between heavily masked states and others. And, as we now know, cloth masks were useless (or close to it). And my anecdotal evidence is that at least half the masqueraders were wearing cloth.
We may see an uptick or a drop but it won't be due to masks.
If deaths are mis-coded then you would see no change in total deaths if there are no other covid-public policy driven causes of death such as not diagnosing or responding to symptoms of the leading causes of death. Keep in mind that the entire way of life for hundreds of millions of Americans changed over the last 2+ years. We cannot know the full impact of that at this time.
It is "spikey" because the vulnerable die more frequently when conditions are at their peak for challenging the body response to their comorbidities, i.e. the dead of winter and dog days of August (with some exteral variation in when those peak challenges occur).
It should be obvious that these spikes would coincide with spikes in hospitalizations and deaths if they are mis-coded covid. I don't think the testing numbers have ever been very reliable due to variation in tests available, test pcr cycle modifications, and other changes in this measurement which render it horribly inconsistent over time. Also, tests with too high pcr cycle thresholds pick up genetically similar material which does lead to false positives which would correlate well with the timing of diseases such as the flu and pneumonia that have for reporting purposes all but disappeared magically from the covid case spike timeframes.
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There are no “dog day” death surges in any other time period.
So, the idea that we have these surges all the time is not reasonable.
Further, the deaths correspond to Covid cases exactly, with a 15 day lag.
You theory would require a non-Covid reason for surges in April 2020, July 2020 (small), January 2021, Sept 2021, and Jan 2022.
I cannot see it, especially when Covid cases predicted those death peaks three weeks before they happened.
That’s not because people selectively committed suicide, had heart attacks, had reactions to vaxx, and so on.
Only one plausible explanation remains.
April 2021 was when 2 weeks to flatten the curve became months. The largest peaks in January of each year are seasonally the highest peak death rates pre-covid. There is also a seasonally much smaller peak in August/September. Note that this is the inflection point from minima in predicted all cause deaths.
And it's not required. That is your self-imposed requirement. And no one is suggesting that there are 0 covid deaths that are coded correctly. But you must realize that it is pure insanity to think that you would pay all persons and entities tens of thousands per covid coded death, yet no systematic error was introduced into the data.
I have difficulty with modeling very complex systems with oversimplifications and then attempting to draw very specific conclusions from the model, particularly when the data collection methodology introduces very easily discernable systematic error.
This is essentially what climate "scientists" do. They are paid to reach a conclusion that is beneficial to those funding them. Their models vary widely but you can be certain that whatever inputs and feedbacks with which they oversimplify a very complex system will yield the desired result.
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