Official CFP predictions thread
- Thread starter Parkerdam555
- Start date
1. Georgia 13-0
2. Michigan 13-0
3. Tennessee 11-1
4. Ohio State 11-1
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5. Clemson 12-1
6. Oregon 12-1
2. Michigan 13-0
3. Tennessee 11-1
4. Ohio State 11-1
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5. Clemson 12-1
6. Oregon 12-1
Close but off. Alabama in over Tenn when they win out and beat Georgia in the sec championship game
1 loss Tennessee has a win over Bama. That trumps anything Michigan has (unless Michigan beats OSU but loses to Illinois or somebody else).
I don't see any way the Big Ten gets two. Winner of OSU-Michigan for all the marbles. SEC will get at least two, and there are a few others floating around that could spoil it (Clemson, TCU, etc.).
The interesting question is whether a 12-1 Oregon (or USC) would get slotted higher than an 11-1 Michigan or OSU.
If Clemson and TCU lose a game (reasonable) I don't see how it's not 2 SEC and 2 Big Ten. Maybe if Bama wins out, Tennessee beats Georgia and Oregon wins the Pac XII the SEC would get 3.
This would all but ensure the death of a 4-team playoff......maybe a lot sooner than later. The majority of the big TV markets are in B1G territory - especially with USC and UCLA coming.
Yeah, I mean it would be interesting
Ohio State 13-0 (lock)
Alabama 12-1 (SEC Champ lock)
Tennessee 12-1 beat Georgia and Bama/lost to Bama lock
Then you have
Georgia 11-1 beat Oregon lost to Tennessee
Michigan 11-1 beat Penn State/Illinois lost to Ohio State
Clemson 12-1 ACC champ but lost to someone not great without a great win
Oregon 12-1 Pac XII champ but destroyed by Georgia
Gotta be Georgia right?
I think if Clemson wins out, they're in. No way they don't make it.
Ohio State at home will beat Michigan. No way does MIchigan make it without winning the conference or even playing in the league's championship game.
Alabama needs to beat Georgia in the SEC championship. If that happens in a close game, then both Georgia and Alabama make it. If Georgia wins that game, then it's a bit of a free-for-all for the 4th spot, but it wouldn't be Alabama.
Ohio State at home will beat Michigan. No way does MIchigan make it without winning the conference or even playing in the league's championship game.
Alabama needs to beat Georgia in the SEC championship. If that happens in a close game, then both Georgia and Alabama make it. If Georgia wins that game, then it's a bit of a free-for-all for the 4th spot, but it wouldn't be Alabama.
Clemson is probably the easiest to swallow in that scenario based on brand, followed by Michigan.
It gets trickier if Georgia beats UT and loses to Bama. Then you have
Undefeated Big Ten Champ-
12-1 Bama SEC Champ
12-1 Georgia (Beat UT)
11-1 UT (Beat Bama)
11-1 OSU/UM (Best win Penn State)
12-1 Oregon
You also potentially have a 13-0 TCU.
Probably the best scenario for getting a 12 team playoff bumped up to next season
duhO$U has a better chance at the CFI (College Football Invitational) than scUM with one loss - all you have to do is look at the inaugural CFI Rankings that just came out... scUM is the second lowest ranked of the 6 remaining P5 undefeated teams at #5. But even #2 duhO$U won't make it with a loss if Clemson remains undefeated, which they almost certainly will. I'll go with 12-1 UGa, 13-0 duhO$U, 13-0 Clemson and 12-1 Bama.
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If we want to get 2 Big Tens in the playoff (do we?) then it's pretty simple honestly. Michigan beats Ohio State, Notre Dame runs the table with wins over Clemson and USC, Alabama losses the SECCG to either Tennessee or Georgia, TCU drops a game and the Pac XII winner is USC with that second loss to ND.
Michigan won't get in without the Big Ten title but Ohio State might.
Michigan won't get in without the Big Ten title but Ohio State might.
Additionally, even if UGa beats Bama, it would be 13-0 UGa, 13-0 b1g Team, 13-0 Clemson and 11-1 Tennessee.
It does NOT trump a 1 loss Ohio State though if that loss is to Michigan. I'm calling for Michigan to beat Ohio State but Ohio State is the team that gets in ahead of Tennessee.
It comes down to WHO gets left out, as to whether they bump it up to 2024: If a loud mouth like Harbaugh or Dabo or Saban gets left out then yes....their hands are forced..
If it's TCU, or Oregon, or even Georgia, then they get their wish and they keep it status quo.
And it looks like the committee agrees with you as they've really slammed Michigan's first 3 opponents. I believe the had the worst SOS out of the first 12 teams. They have to go undefeated and beat OSU to get in.
Scheduling Colorado St, U Conn, and Hawaii was pathetic and could come back to bite them if they lose a close one to OSU especially when they cancelled UCLA for 2022
No doubt, if either Tenn or Bama have only 1 Loss, scUM is not going before them if they lose to duhO$U.
The other thing imho is TCU will get one of the spots if they end up going 13-0. IOW, it may well end up being 13-0 UGa, 13-0 duhO$U, 13-0 Clemson and 13-0 TCU.
Yeah, there's no way to defend or even excuse Michigan's non-conference slate and I hope they get left out as punishment for it.
I can dig that. B1G vs. SEC and I take B1G. But two of those teams would not even be in their conference championship which, if selected, would pretty much kill the current system. That would be good.
