My opinion.

[bdgan]

In the interest of accuracy and in fairness to those three, it was someone else who early on was beating the "It's just like the flu" drum.

Trump, Cuomo, Pelosi, and Deblasio all said similar things.

On January 26th Fauci said "The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It's a very, very low risk to the United States".

Trying to politicize this is wrong and not fair minded.

 

[21 East]

The title of the thread is a real good summary of your thoughts; very illuminating.

To be fair, I believe he changed the thread title recently to indicate that his original opinion had proven to be wrong. I don't think he deserves criticism for admitting that. Some of his responses, including to posts of mine, indicate that although he would not easily just drop his belief in what he thought would occur, he was genuinely interested in learning why he might be wrong.

 

[PSUBrewer]

Over 1000 dead in the US yesterday alone, heartbreaking and scary.

 

[gregoryj95]

Yep, better to double down on the initial comments than admit they were way off the mark. Weird stand to take as we all know what is going on.

You and I can agree that the psychology of denying the crisis is very clear. Some folks HAVE to live in denial of this, as a coping strategy. Which gives them the added benefit of having someone to be angry at about it. It's not helpful to society but is very important to that individual. It is what it is.

 

[jabba2]

Maryland closing all casinos. What's next, close grocery stores, airports and malls?

All those things except Grocery stores have already been long closed in PA. I had a cold this February that had nausea for 8-9 days and alot of tiredness, I thought it was Influenza B. I didnt get a flu shot so I figured it was some type of flu. I had no shortness of breath or congestion. Just nausea and tiredness/body aches that you would associate with the flu. No other obvious symptoms, but I was taking a teaspoon a day of baking soda, which im convinced lesson the severity.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

This governor must be Rip Van Winkle:

 

[Nitt1300]

This governor must be Rip Van Winkle:

View embedded media

It's been unsurprising which states seem to have their heads up their asses.

 

[katchthis]

Link to peak Calculator.....
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[bplionfan]

Lets take a look at the test we are using to determine if patients have cv19 You decide if this sounds reliable.

“CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel.” This is an instruction manual to administer the test. It became effective in USA on 15th March 2020. https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

How did this test come about to be THE TEST used around the world?

What happened in China, they sent out these samples, they put out information in databases. This was picked up by Christian Dorsten And Mr. Drosten produced a test method for COVID-19 within a couple of days. “..submitted a protocol to WHO, and it got admitted really quickly.” This is really important to understand. This is not the way it usually happens. He’s the same guy who has produced similar test methods for Zika, MERS, SARS that are all highly suspect tests that produce a high number of false positives. And he happens to be the co-discoverer of SARS.

Quoting Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
Usually a test is considered a product of medicine, it HAS TO BE validated.
This is what Dr. Wolfgang says. But in this case, Mr. Drosten created a test method. It wasn’t validated. It was just approved.

Quoting Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
That means it has to be checked very precisely. What does this test actually say? What does it measure? The mentioned test is an in-house test developed by Charite-clinic. But because there weren’t any validated tests and the great panic arose, it was decided to use this test everywhere before it was validated. Now this test method, is the test now being used everywhere.

If we look at the test method again from the FDA site. …let’s look close at this test method. Obviously we have this published report they suspect that more than half of the screening results may be false positives. Now, if we get the positive result, what does it really mean? Because me and you and everybody else, we believe if they have a test method, we believe its gonna be accurate. Its gonna say yes or no, not well maybe there is a 50% chance, right?

Now what does it mean if you get a positive result? It says: Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. So, if you have a bacterial infection or co-infection, you get a positive result. if we have a really bad test, …we are gonna get an enormous spread because 50% or more people taking this test are gonna be false positives. So its gonna look like this epidemic is exploding when essentially its something wrong with the test method. Because remember, the test method wasn’t validated.

Only way to know that you have a pandemic, if you have a spread, with a test. But if the test is fraudulent then the whole series of decisions are gonna be wrong because the test is fraudulent.

If we look at Center for Disease Control and Prevention…their whole page about the swine flu…and this is what they say, now…

Quoting the CDC QUESTIONS & ANSWERS for Influenza Diagnostic Testing During the 2009-2010 Flu Season:

How will I know what strain of flu I have or if it’s 2009 H1N1 (formerly known as Swine Flu)?

You may not be able to find out definitively what flu virus you have. Currently available rapid influenza diagnostic tests cannot distinguish between 2009 H1N1 and seasonal influenza A viruses.

And now they say, essentially, they can’t prove that swine flu existed at all. This is what CDC says.. So you are seeing where I am going with this. This is how you create a pandemic. It’s just enough to create a test method which shows, gives you results of false positives. And then you send out this test method all over the world. You will have nurses and doctors taking samples and tests on people…and they will, they will take the test, get the positive result, and they will send back the numbers to WHO. The Numbers come back and WHO says we have a pandemic. Can they prove it? No they cant. They can’t prove it because the test method is just a big farce. Just think about it. One man….this super-mega virologist, he created all of these tests. Isn’t that convenient?

 

[bplionfan]

Yesterday I had my post deleted for posting about the lying media. What do you know,
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-report-about-nyc/
CBS News has admitted that alarming footage of an overflowing ward used during a report on the coronavirus crisis in Big Apple hospitals was actually shot in Italy.

CBS’ breakfast show, “This Morning,” used the footage of a packed ward last Wednesday just after saying the pandemic’s epicenter was “found right here” in New York.

The same footage had been aired earlier by Sky News — which correctly identified it as one of Europe’s “most hard-hit” hospitals located in Bergamo, Lombardy.

 

[gregoryj95]

Lets take a look at the test we are using to determine if patients have cv19 You decide if this sounds reliable.

“CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel.” This is an instruction manual to administer the test. It became effective in USA on 15th March 2020. https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

How did this test come about to be THE TEST used around the world?

What happened in China, they sent out these samples, they put out information in databases. This was picked up by Christian Dorsten And Mr. Drosten produced a test method for COVID-19 within a couple of days. “..submitted a protocol to WHO, and it got admitted really quickly.” This is really important to understand. This is not the way it usually happens. He’s the same guy who has produced similar test methods for Zika, MERS, SARS that are all highly suspect tests that produce a high number of false positives. And he happens to be the co-discoverer of SARS.

Quoting Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
Usually a test is considered a product of medicine, it HAS TO BE validated.
This is what Dr. Wolfgang says. But in this case, Mr. Drosten created a test method. It wasn’t validated. It was just approved.

Quoting Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
That means it has to be checked very precisely. What does this test actually say? What does it measure? The mentioned test is an in-house test developed by Charite-clinic. But because there weren’t any validated tests and the great panic arose, it was decided to use this test everywhere before it was validated. Now this test method, is the test now being used everywhere.

If we look at the test method again from the FDA site. …let’s look close at this test method. Obviously we have this published report they suspect that more than half of the screening results may be false positives. Now, if we get the positive result, what does it really mean? Because me and you and everybody else, we believe if they have a test method, we believe its gonna be accurate. Its gonna say yes or no, not well maybe there is a 50% chance, right?

Now what does it mean if you get a positive result? It says: Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. So, if you have a bacterial infection or co-infection, you get a positive result. if we have a really bad test, …we are gonna get an enormous spread because 50% or more people taking this test are gonna be false positives. So its gonna look like this epidemic is exploding when essentially its something wrong with the test method. Because remember, the test method wasn’t validated.

Only way to know that you have a pandemic, if you have a spread, with a test. But if the test is fraudulent then the whole series of decisions are gonna be wrong because the test is fraudulent.

If we look at Center for Disease Control and Prevention…their whole page about the swine flu…and this is what they say, now…

Quoting the CDC QUESTIONS & ANSWERS for Influenza Diagnostic Testing During the 2009-2010 Flu Season:

How will I know what strain of flu I have or if it’s 2009 H1N1 (formerly known as Swine Flu)?

You may not be able to find out definitively what flu virus you have. Currently available rapid influenza diagnostic tests cannot distinguish between 2009 H1N1 and seasonal influenza A viruses.

And now they say, essentially, they can’t prove that swine flu existed at all. This is what CDC says.. So you are seeing where I am going with this. This is how you create a pandemic. It’s just enough to create a test method which shows, gives you results of false positives. And then you send out this test method all over the world. You will have nurses and doctors taking samples and tests on people…and they will, they will take the test, get the positive result, and they will send back the numbers to WHO. The Numbers come back and WHO says we have a pandemic. Can they prove it? No they cant. They can’t prove it because the test method is just a big farce. Just think about it. One man….this super-mega virologist, he created all of these tests. Isn’t that convenient?

Aw man, I don't even know where to start with this. So many misperceptions and inaccuracies in one post. False positives are relatively low with the current tests; false negatives are the greater concern. You've completely misrepresented the process for testing and approvals, or I should say your online source had misrepresented this to you.

This is not a giant conspiracy to create a fake pandemic. They're not faking that thousands are dying across the world every day right now, and that we will benefit if we can slow the spread of this virus.

I'm expecting you to come blasting back at me pretty hard for challenging you on this, but the kind of disinformation here is highly counterproductive so it's ok if that happens. For sure we're going to have to agree to disagree, because I can tell that you're really passionate in your beliefs here.

 

[bplionfan]

Aw man, I don't even know where to start with this. So many misperceptions and inaccuracies in one post. False positives are relatively low with the current tests; false negatives are the greater concern. You've completely misrepresented the process for testing and approvals, or I should say your online source had misrepresented this to you.

This is not a giant conspiracy to create a fake pandemic. They're not faking that thousands are dying across the world every day right now, and that we will benefit if we can slow the spread of this virus.

I'm expecting you to come blasting back at me pretty hard for challenging you on this, but the kind of disinformation here is highly counterproductive so it's ok if that happens. For sure we're going to have to agree to disagree, because I can tell that you're really passionate in your beliefs here.

Can you show me proof the test currently being used was validated? I am no virologist, but certainly makes sense to make sure we are starting off with a valid test. Start with that. Thank you.

 

[gregoryj95]

Can you show me proof the test currently being used was validated? I am no virologist, but certainly makes sense to make sure we are starting off with a valid test. Start with that. Thank you.

Sure, you can find fairly comprehensive documentation through publicly available information
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices...al-devices/faqs-diagnostic-testing-sars-cov-2

 

[Grant Green]

Yesterday I had my post deleted for posting about the lying media. What do you know,
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-report-about-nyc/
CBS News has admitted that alarming footage of an overflowing ward used during a report on the coronavirus crisis in Big Apple hospitals was actually shot in Italy.

CBS’ breakfast show, “This Morning,” used the footage of a packed ward last Wednesday just after saying the pandemic’s epicenter was “found right here” in New York.

The same footage had been aired earlier by Sky News — which correctly identified it as one of Europe’s “most hard-hit” hospitals located in Bergamo, Lombardy.

Is your point that some folks in the media are deceptive, or that the entire media is deceptive?

 

[KnightSlayer]

Yesterday I had my post deleted for posting about the lying media. What do you know,
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-report-about-nyc/
CBS News has admitted that alarming footage of an overflowing ward used during a report on the coronavirus crisis in Big Apple hospitals was actually shot in Italy.

CBS’ breakfast show, “This Morning,” used the footage of a packed ward last Wednesday just after saying the pandemic’s epicenter was “found right here” in New York.

The same footage had been aired earlier by Sky News — which correctly identified it as one of Europe’s “most hard-hit” hospitals located in Bergamo, Lombardy.

They said it was an editing mistake. You think they did it on purpose? To what end?

 

[bplionfan]

Sure, you can find fairly comprehensive documentation through publicly available information
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices...al-devices/faqs-diagnostic-testing-sars-cov-2

So you are saying the test was validated? I didn't see anything in there that says the test was validated. Lots of stuff on how to get it validated.

https://www.creative-diagnostics.com/sars-cov-2-coronavirus-multiplex-rt-qpcr-kit-277854-457.htm
This product is intended for the detection of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The detection result of this product is only for clinical reference, and it should not be used as the only evidence for clinical diagnosis and treatment.

"False positives are relatively low with the current tests;"
What is relatively low? How large of a percent of false positive is ok when making a decision on your life?

"false negatives are the greater concern"
So you and whomever said this would agree, the tests are unreliable. Correct? Would you not expect a test to be 99.9% sure of what it is testing?

Are you sure this is happening?
If HSC is positive for N1 or N2, then contamination may have occurred during extraction or sample processing. Invalidate all results for specimens extracted alongside the HSC. Re-extract specimens and HSC and re-test.

A Chinese study published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology in early March, which indicated the unreliability of the Covid19 virus tests (approx. 50% false-positive results in asymptomatic patients), has since been withdrawn. The lead author of the study, the dean of a medical school, did not want to give the reason for the withdrawal and spoke of a „sensitive matter„, which could indicate political pressure, as an NPR journalist noted. Independent of this study, however, the unreliability of so-called PCR virus tests has long been known: In 2006, for example, a mass infection in a Canadian nursing home with SARS corona viruses was „found“, which later turned out to be common cold corona viruses (which can also be fatal for risk groups).

Limitations
• All users, analysts, and any person reporting diagnostic results should be trained to perform this procedure by a competent instructor. They should demonstrate their ability to perform the test and interpret the results prior to performing the assay independently. • Performance of the CDC 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel has only been established in upper and lower respiratory specimens (such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs, sputum, lower respiratory tract aspirates, bronchoalveolar lavage, and nasopharyngeal wash/aspirate or nasal aspirate). • Negative results do not preclude 2019-nCoV infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or other patient management decisions. Optimum specimen types and timing for peak viral levels during infections caused by 2019-nCoV have not been determined. Collection of multiple specimens (types and time points) from the same patient may be necessary to detect the virus. • A false negative result may occur if a specimen is improperly collected, transported or handled. False negative results may also occur if amplification inhibitors are present in the specimen or if inadequate numbers of organisms are present in the specimen. • Positive and negative predictive values are highly dependent on prevalence. False negative test results are more likely when prevalence of disease is high. False positive test results are more likely when prevalence is moderate to low. • Do not use any reagent past the expiration date. • If the virus mutates in the rRT-PCR target region, 2019-nCoV may not be detected or may be detected less predictably. Inhibitors or other types of interference may produce a false negative result. An interference study evaluating the effect of common cold medications was not performed. • Test performance can be affected because the epidemiology and clinical spectrum of infection caused by 2019-nCoV is not fully known. For example, clinicians and laboratories may not know the optimum types of specimens to collect, and, during the course of infection, when these specimens are most likely to contain levels of viral RNA that can be readily detected. • Detection of viral RNA may not indicate the presence of infectious virus or that 2019-nCoV is the causative agent for clinical symptoms.
37 CDC-006-00019, Revision: 03 CDC/DDID/NCIRD/ Division of Viral Diseases Effective: 3/30/2020
• The performance of this test has not been established for monitoring treatment of 2019-nCoV infection. • The performance of this test has not been established for screening of blood or blood products for the presence of 2019-nCoV. • This test cannot rule out diseases caused by other bacterial or viral pathogens.

So tell me again how reliable the test is? That is straight from FDA document I posted earlier.

But hey people are dying... I love the general statements like this. People are dying every day regardless. Cancer, car accidents, pneumonia, colds, flu, alzheimer's etc... So every media report saying this is telling the truth. What do you know, something the media is telling the truth about... What they are not telling you the truth about is what they directly died from. Because they can't. People who are dying are being attributed to dying from CV, and their is little proof that is what they died from. Plus, there is no proof of any more people dying than normal.

 

[crazytoadie]

Can you show me proof the test currently being used was validated? I am no virologist, but certainly makes sense to make sure we are starting off with a valid test. Start with that. Thank you.

Here is the FDA guidance regarding COVID-19 diagnostic tests, including expectations for validation.

https://www.fda.gov/media/135659/download

Any diagnostic approved by FDA will have addressed the validation, at a minimum of that in the guidance. An un-validated method would not be approved for commercial use. No reputable company is going to market an invalidated test as the liability would be very high and damaging, especially under the lens of a global pandemic. That said the validation is proprietary info, so there won’t be public access for you to see.

 

[bplionfan]

Here is the FDA guidance regarding COVID-19 diagnostic tests, including expectations for validation.

https://www.fda.gov/media/135659/download

Any diagnostic approved by FDA will have addressed the validation, at a minimum of that in the guidance. An un-validated method would not be approved for commercial use. No reputable company is going to market an invalidated test as the liability would be very high and damaging, especially under the lens of a global pandemic. That said the validation is proprietary info, so there won’t be public access for you to see.

Thank you for your reply. I really don't need to see anything but this. Its a joke of a test. TOTALLY UNRELIABLE. Our bodies are fighting bacteria and other pathogens daily. So a specific test for CV can't disseminate, why would anyone believe what they are selling us.
• The performance of this test has not been established for monitoring treatment of 2019-nCoV infection. • The performance of this test has not been established for screening of blood or blood products for the presence of 2019-nCoV. • This test cannot rule out diseases caused by other bacterial or viral pathogens.

 

[bplionfan]

[QUOTE="gregoryj[/QUOTE]

Moving on from the testing aspect. Lets look at what has gone on with regards to drills, drills, drills. Live drill and practice drills... This is since Sept 2019.

Some drills that happened just prior to the outbreak in China… This was all just some dumb luck, pure coincidences, that all of these drills just happened regarding a freaking cv. Take off your tin foil hat people say...No thanks. I'll leave it on, if taking it off means I'd believe all this stuff just happens by coincidence.

In Sept 2019 Chinese Government ran a drill or exercise on September 18th, 2019, in Wuhan, where they simulated a response for … a novel coronavirus strain! What are the chances of the Chinese authorities randomly choosing to practice for a coronavirus entering their country, given the thousands of pathogens and diseases they could have practiced for?
https://thefreedomarticles.com/chin...wledge-coronavirus-drill-30-days-wuhan-games/

Then In Oct 2019, what are the odds that there is a pandemic practice drill (by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Johns Hopkins) for “coronavirus” and was run only 2 months prior to the first reported case of “Coronavirus”? What are the odds that this would happen? Seriously.

Oct 2019 Pandemic Global exercise called Event 201 takes place how to deal with a coronavirus pandemic.
https://i.postimg.cc/6Q0vsP43/Capture12.jpg
https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/
https://www.hopkins-cepar.org/on-alert/two-different-drills-with-two-different-goals

Now lets look at what was said about drills after the supposed virus starts in Wuhan.

White House representative says we are in a Live exercise. So is it a live exercise or pandemic...Oh he just misspoke no doubt.. You can hear Trump mumble, I wish someone would have told me.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/
https://i.postimg.cc/2SYgGM1T/Pompeo.jpg
This was after Trump earlier calls CV a new hoax. Regardless of what anyone thinks of Trump, There is a 100% chance he has been briefed about any and all matters like CV. That statement wasn't an accident. I am not making a political statement, I don't follow any politics.
https://i.postimg.cc/2SYgGM1T/Pompeo.jpg

Is everyone aware our gov’t by law is allowed to use propaganda against us?!!
https://i.postimg.cc/ZKHLkMfw/smith-mundt.jpg

So yes I am passionate about this. I am 100% sure, what is going on was preplanned and there is no real pandemic. No false positives or negative in that 100% number...

 

[crazytoadie]

You know why it cannot rule out diseases by other bacterial or viral pathogens?

Because it ISN’T a test for those. It can neither prove nor disprove something it isn’t looking for.

Further, the link you send describes the specificity of the test as follows:

“This product provides dual-detections of two independent genes of 2019-nCoV in a single tube. Specific primers and probes were designed for the detection of conserved region of 2019-nCoV's ORF1ab gene and N gene, respectively, avoiding non-specific interference of SARS2003 and BatSARS-like virus strains.”

 

[bplionfan]

Yes, the test shows you positive for CV but can't really tell you if that is what is causing your illness. As the illness from other bacterial or other pathogens which cause similar symptoms may be the true cause.

So add to that, that every test kit created is created after the protocol that Drosten got approved by the WHO outside of the normal approval process. There is no guarantee his method was correct, so every company creating kits with his protocol is producing unreliable test kits. Thus unreliable test results. Just like the crap H1N1 test as noted above by the CDC.

 

[crazytoadie]

Since you cannot interpret English properly, I’ll highlight the important points from the CDC page you cite (in full & verbatim):

Q: “How will I know what strain of flu I have of if it’s 2009 H1N1 (formerly known as Swine Flu)?”

A: “You many not be able to find out definitively what flu virus you have. Currently available rapid influenza diagnostic tests cannot distinguish between 2009 H1N1 and seasonal influenza A viruses. Most people with flu symptoms this season will not require testing for 2009 H1N1 because the test results usually do not change how you are treated. As of September 2009, more than 99% of circulating influenza viruses in the United States are 2009 H1N1. Therefore, at this time, if your health care provider determines that you have the flu, you most likely have 2009 H1N1. As the season progresses, different influenza viruses may circulate and updated national information on circulating influenza viruses is available in the FluView US Weekly Influenza Surveillance Report. There are laboratory tests available that can tell the difference between 2009 H1N1 and other strains of flu, but these can take one to several days to provide results and this season, CDC has recommended that this testing be focused on 1) people who are hospitalized with the suspected flu; 2) people such as pregnant women or people with weakened immune systems, for whom a diagnosis of flu will help their doctor make decisions about their care.”

Q: “Why can’t I get a more accurate laboratory test to find out if I had flu or what kind of flu I had?”

A: “The most accurate laboratory tests, such as real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) are only available in certain laboratories, and these tests can take several days to obtain results. This season, CDC is focusing use of these tests on people who are hospitalized or for other reasons explained in the question ‘Who is being tested for flu this season’?”

So the rapid flu test (i.e. results in ~30 min) was not specific for H1N1, but the real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) tests were specific. They took longer and CDC didn’t make the specificity of the rapid tests an issue because 99% of flu in September was H1N1. The information in your link does not come close to saying that they had no way to detect H1N1 virus so don’t try to pretend it was a hoax.

On top of that, the COVID-19 test info you previously linked was a real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test, which is the exact same type of test that was able to distinguish H1N1 from other flu viruses. So in fact, you attempt to undermine the COVID-19 test by your lame and INCORRECT analogy to the H1N1 rapid test just proves that the current testing uses the same methodology as the discriminatory test for H1N1 versus other flu viruses.

You should be completely ashamed of yourself for your baseless, incorrect conspiracy theories. Just a suggestion, you can help prevent the spread of BS by isolating your thoughts to yourself.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

4K per week not total

>6k deaths in the 7 days since you posted that.
Sadly, this virus sees no amateur prediction that it cannot pass.
April is really looking to be a brutal month.

 

[Grant Green]

>6k deaths in the 7 days since you posted that.
Sadly, this virus sees no amateur prediction that it cannot pass.
April is really looking to be a brutal month.

Counting today, we will clear 7k in a 7 day span and still no peak (sorry Stratton, dunce cap for you).
The good news is that it looks like Italy and Spain are now both showing a drop in new cases and deaths per day. If we follow their trends, hopefully we see our peak in the next few days.

 

[ericstratton-rushchairman]

Counting today, we will clear 7k in a 7 day span and still no peak (sorry Stratton, dunce cap for you).
The good news is that it looks like Italy and Spain are now both showing a drop in new cases and deaths per day. If we follow their trends, hopefully we see our peak in the next few days.

I’ll take the dunce cap if we are really close to the peak in deaths and cases per day.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Counting today, we will clear 7k in a 7 day span and still no peak (sorry Stratton, dunce cap for you).
The good news is that it looks like Italy and Spain are now both showing a drop in new cases and deaths per day. If we follow their trends, hopefully we see our peak in the next few days.

Just my opinion but I think we will be in worse shape than Italy and Spain because we are going to have more hot spots so the peak is a ways off.

 

[Grant Green]

Just my opinion but I think we will be in worse shape than Italy and Spain because we are going to have more hot spots so the peak is a ways off.

Definitely a concern. Or rates could peak soon, but plateau or drop off very slowly.

I’ll take the dunce cap if we are really close to the peak in deaths and cases per day.

Wait, are you saying that you think we are not that close to a peak currently? I thought you said last week that you thought we would hit the peak by the end of this week. Maybe I misinterpreted your previous posts.

 

[ericstratton-rushchairman]

Definitely a concern. Or rates could peak soon, but plateau or drop off very slowly.


Wait, are you saying that you think we are not that close to a peak currently? I thought you said last week that you thought we would hit the peak by the end of this week. Maybe I misinterpreted your previous posts.

I do think peak is close. I had really thought this weekend but maybe in next 7 days. The rate of increase has been steadily dropping and I just don’t see any other metro area having the kind of horrific breakout like nyc. Perhaps the curve plateaus and holds for a week before dropping.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

I do think peak is close. I had really thought this weekend but maybe in next 7 days. The rate of increase has been steadily dropping and I just don’t see any other metro area having the kind of horrific breakout like nyc. Perhaps the curve plateaus and holds for a week before dropping.

Kind of where I am too. We will have other hot spots, but they’ve had this thing for a few weeks - it wasn’t just yesterday that the spring break kids fanned out, or Mardi Gras happened, etc.

Our mayor cancelling SXSW despite it being Austin’s major (by far) moneymaker was a very prescient move though.

 

[ericstratton-rushchairman]

Kind of where I am too. We will have other hot spots, but they’ve had this thing for a few weeks - it wasn’t just yesterday that the spring break kids fanned out, or Mardi Gras happened, etc.

Our mayor cancelling SXSW despite it being Austin’s major (by far) moneymaker was a very prescient move though.

That Mardi Gras decision is really going to bite them in the ass I think. My step daughter, son in law and their three young kids are moving from AUSTIN up to Dallas area in 2 weeks and all 5 of them are staying with me and my wife for a week.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

This governor must be Rip Van Winkle:

View embedded media

Ga is in the south east.WTF would you expect but insane double talk? In Tn we are all on a stay at home order except for essential services..... the governor of Tn lists every business function that exists as essential except eating together in restaurants or resorts. The leadership in this region is not leadership .... but BSership.

 

[SUPERTODD]

The data coming out of Sweden really shows surprising conclusions. The spread has essentially stopped there. Something like only 40 new cases last week. And they only had moderate social distancing and no government shutdown. American politicians of any party were in a tough spot. There was a large segment of our population who were hell bent on panic and looking to blame anyone and everyone for this pandemic. Some of the panicked were people who look for crisis in everything and demand government fix it, others simply have the world view that “people” are idiots and can not be trusted to do the right things. The real malevolent ones were those seeking political and financial benefit from the misfortune of others. I think any reasonable person should be able to understand Ned was right and the people hammering him in this thread owe him an apology.

 

[Grant Green]

The data coming out of Sweden really shows surprising conclusions. The spread has essentially stopped there. Something like only 40 new cases last week. And they only had moderate social distancing and no government shutdown. American politicians of any party were in a tough spot. There was a large segment of our population who were hell bent on panic and looking to blame anyone and everyone for this pandemic. Some of the panicked were people who look for crisis in everything and demand government fix it, others simply have the world view that “people” are idiots and can not be trusted to do the right things. The real malevolent ones were those seeking political and financial benefit from the misfortune of others. I think any reasonable person should be able to understand Ned was right and the people hammering him in this thread owe him an apology.

This is ridiculous. 136 people died today from pneumonia, 166 from the flu. We are at 51 total for COVID and at peak I do not think we will come close to those daily numbers.

How in the wide wide world of sports is this opening comment anywhere close to right?

Sweden still has 1500 cases per cap and 175 deaths per cap. Better than other European countries, but still nothing to brag about. There are numerous other European countries that did isolate and have been hit hard (Spain, Italy, Belguim, France...).

 

[LaJolla Lion]

How in the wild wild world of sports is this opening comment anywhere close to right?

Sweden still has 1500 cases per cap and 175 deaths per cap. Better than other European countries, but still nothing to brag about. There are numerous other European countries that did isolate and have been hit hard (Spain, Italy, Belguim, France...).

Not seeing it either. Just a bit outside in my best Bob Uecker voice.

 

[SUPERTODD]

Not seeing it either. Just a bit outside in my best Bob Uecker voice.

Sigh, because Sweden did not destroy their economy and spend $5 Trillion dollars and they got essentially the same results. We also have 22 million unemployment claims. It’s not that hard to see.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Sigh, because Sweden did not destroy their economy and spend $5 Trillion dollars and they got essentially the same results. We also have 22 million unemployment claims. It’s not that hard to see.

Sigh, why not compare more populated countries and cities? So you think Italy and Spain would have been the same with no lockdown? Not to mention the US with no lockdown in major cities? It would have been the same? Really?

Their largest city has 10% of NYC and is no where near as congested. NYC has 27,000 people per square mile. That is more than double of Stockholm. Never mind the use of mass transit comparison. So where do you think this virus would spread quicker and maybe why Sweden’s way may not work everywhere. Never mind the fact the numbers in the OP were blown away. In rural and less populated areas, maybe that approach is fine....but I don’t think Ned is looking for an apology, never mind being owed one.

 

[NoVa Lion]

This is ridiculous. 136 people died today from pneumonia, 166 from the flu. We are at 51 total for COVID and at peak I do not think we will come close to those daily numbers.

Just opened this thread. Obviously Ned is a genius.

A quick look shows me that Ned has not weighed in again for quite a while. Very sad.

 

[SUPERTODD]

Sigh, why not compare more populated countries and cities? So you think Italy and Spain would have been the same with no lockdown? Not to mention the US with no lockdown in major cities? It would have been the same? Really?

Their largest city has 10% of NYC and is no where near as congested. NYC has 27,000 people per square mile. That is more than double of Stockholm. Never mind the use of mass transit comparison. So where do you think this virus would spread quicker and maybe why Sweden’s way may not work everywhere. Never mind the fact the numbers in the OP were blown away. In rural and less populated areas, maybe that approach is fine....but I don’t think Ned is looking for an apology, never mind being owed one.

Right about major cities. A cost-benefit analysis should have been done with that in mind. The whole country should not have had their economy destroyed for no reason.

And listen, what I stated is that reasonable people can agree that Ned is owed an apology. The vitriol and idiocy leveled at Ned was ridiculous and overblown. I DID NOT say anyone would agree. And I certainly did not say even people who can not respect any opinion not identical to their own would agree...

 

[MJG-90]

Come back at end of next week and if the new case/day has not peak then I will accept the dunce cap.

Did I miss the wearing of the dunce cap?

 

[Grant Green]

Right about major cities. A cost-benefit analysis should have been done with that in mind. The whole country should not have had their economy destroyed for no reason.

And listen, what I stated is that reasonable people can agree that Ned is owed an apology. The vitriol and idiocy leveled at Ned was ridiculous and overblown. I DID NOT say anyone would agree. And I certainly did not say even people who can not respect any opinion not identical to their own would agree...

No, you said that Ned was right and people owe him an apology. Ned was dead wrong.
If you are going to put your opinion out there and it ends up being way off, you invite heavy criticism. Especially when you double and triple down on your original statement.