Midterms

Aardvark86

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Jan 23, 2018
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So sabato site posted an update to its midterm house ratings. Eleven seats moving in r direction, though most from safe/likely d to likely/leans d. Bigger picture though they forecast r +17 in the house assuming no material change in environment, with > r + 20 more probable. If conditions improve, still potential for d to hold the house. Sabato is fair on this stuff, if even a little left leaning, and does a district by district forecast rather than relying on general trends.

Relatedly, cook political teased a ratings change in 8 races, all in one direction. I don’t have access there but will be interesting to see what does today.
 

NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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It’s only April.

I know it sucks for you guys being out of power but damn you guys are a little kids on a long road trip constantly asking your parents if you are there yet. You got a long way to go.
 

bourbon n blues

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Nov 20, 2019
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So sabato site posted an update to its midterm house ratings. Eleven seats moving in r direction, though most from safe/likely d to likely/leans d. Bigger picture though they forecast r +17 in the house assuming no material change in environment, with > r + 20 more probable. If conditions improve, still potential for d to hold the house. Sabato is fair on this stuff, if even a little left leaning, and does a district by district forecast rather than relying on general trends.

Relatedly, cook political teased a ratings change in 8 races, all in one direction. I don’t have access there but will be interesting to see what does today.
My guess is over +20 R gains. You don't have a somewhat moderate and slightly coherent POTUS who might help them . Even with redistricting it's bad for the ads.
There are certain policies you can't run away from. Even if gas prices come down 10% or so.
 

Aardvark86

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Jan 23, 2018
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It’s only April.

I know it sucks for you guys being out of power but damn you guys are a little kids on a long road trip constantly asking your parents if you are there yet. You got a long way to go.
Very true (and hence the caveat) re environment. A political eternity to go yet. But hey, like baseball, you check the box scores during the season.
 
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bourbon n blues

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I wouldn’t go that far. Sabato is liberal but he is a pro.
I get that but I'll guess he still will have certain "public blinders". I doubt if it's worst case scenario plus he would say so.
My guess is more on his worse case scenario with a hedge.
There's not a single poll I'll say that doesn't try to move public opinion .
 

NJPSU

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Very true (and hence the caveat) re environment. A political eternity to go yet. But hey, like baseball, you check the box scores during the season.
Oh I agree the GOP will take the House but I just think it’s funny you guys are so triggered being out of power that you are pretending the election is next week. Long way to go with Dems in charge.
 

bourbon n blues

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Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.[5][6]

The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections:[7] since World War II the President's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.

Moreover, since direct public midterm elections were introduced, in only seven of those (under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Donald Trump) has the President's party gained seats in the House or the Senate, and of those only two (1934, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and 2002, George W. Bush) have seen the President's party gain seats in both houses.

So we will see what happens .
 
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NJPSU

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Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.[5][6]

The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections:[7] since World War II the President's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.

Moreover, since direct public midterm elections were introduced, in only seven of those (under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Donald Trump) has the President's party gained seats in the House or the Senate, and of those only two (1934, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and 2002, George W. Bush) have seen the President's party gain seats in both houses.

So we will see what happens .
You will take the House but that’s not until January 2023.
 

psu skp

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Nov 7, 2016
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50 yard line after dark
It’s only April.
Dude, primary season has already begun. Texas has already had theirs and we have a number of big state primaries beginning in May. I know your side only focuses on election day because that's when the dump trucks of illegal ballots are being shipped around after the polls have closed and windows are being covered up, but those of us who support the democratic process focus on who the candidates are and that is being determined as. we. speak.

November will be here before you know it...
 

ao5884

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Oct 1, 2019
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Oh I agree the GOP will take the House but I just think it’s funny you guys are so triggered being out of power that you are pretending the election is next week. Long way to go with Dems in charge.
Let's hope they don't **** things up worse than they already have. 8.5% inflation alone is killing the family budget for a lot of Americans
 

SR108

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Jan 13, 2004
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It’s only April.

I know it sucks for you guys being out of power but damn you guys are a little kids on a long road trip constantly asking your parents if you are there yet. You got a long way to go.
I agree, plenty of time for the Lib propaganda machine to crank up and the voting fraud strategies to be implemented.
 
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Aardvark86

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Jan 23, 2018
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So, the Cook Political update dropped, and from what I can see of the tease, the shifts entail 8 seats moving toward R but only three of them involve D seats moving into the tossup category. Of those three, two are in NV, and one is the Spanberger seat in Virginia. Sitting here today, I'll lay money that the D's retain all three of those seats, in NV because of the D machine, and in VA because the party will defend her (as she is perceived as a rising star) and there is enough NoVa suburban makeup to her new district.

Separately, Cook notes that there are currently 27 current D seats in tossup or worse, and 12 current R seats in tossup or worse, before taking into account final redistricting in FL/NH.
 
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pawrestlersintn

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Jan 26, 2013
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It’s only April.

I know it sucks for you guys being out of power but damn you guys are a little kids on a long road trip constantly asking your parents if you are there yet. You got a long way to go.
Simply worried about how bad that you guys can **** things up in the meantime.
 
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m.knox

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It’s only April.

I know it sucks for you guys being out of power but damn you guys are a little kids on a long road trip constantly asking your parents if you are there yet. You got a long way to go.

LOL... So little self awareness... Hilarious... after spending 4 years getting fooled about RUSSIA............
 

m.knox

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Oh I agree the GOP will take the House but I just think it’s funny you guys are so triggered being out of power that you are pretending the election is next week. Long way to go with Dems in charge.

Dems in charge... lol...... That's funny.